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garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

resident posted:

I want to know what production rules are in place for Ex Island. Like, can Reem gently caress off into the woods and emerge every night to covertly extinguish other Ex Island players fires to make them miserable while they think she just opted to quit? That kind of makes me want a season where Russell just fucks with the tribe, and he gets a million dollars if he never gets caught.

That’s how Ex Island works. You have to keep your new torch lit. If it ever gets snuffed again you’re eliminated for reals. Your goal is to snuff the other players torches. Anyone who’s torch remains unsnuffed gets back in.

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garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

Spergatory posted:

Man, the Survivor Gods really don't want this season to have any new interesting dynamics, do they? That swap was some bullshit. Manu is now so isolated from the rest of the game that their only hope is that Kama being split in two will actually cause them to turn against each other. They can't make any relationships or inroads with the majority tribe, so they have no choice but to cross their fingers and hope they screw up.

Fortunately, there is a decent history of majority tribes doing just that in a situation like this where they enter the merge with a huge lead. Tandang and Timbira from Philippines and Tocantins come to mind. In most situations with true pagongings, the tribes merged even or with a 1-2 person difference, making the majority tribe feel like they had to stick together to defeat a legitimately threatening enemy. But if the numbers are, say, 9-4, the minority seems like no threat at all, and the tribe's attention can turn to resolving long simmering internal tensions. (It helps if the majority kind of hates each other, like the above two examples.)

It also happened in Samoa. All three seasons also did not have a real swap. And there is at least some factional fracturing in Kama with the newbie/returnee tension. The big difference is that the minority were lock solid with each other and I don’t think David would feel that with Kelley. If Manu lose again and cut David I think we could realistically see a F6 of Kelley, Lauren, Wardog, Aubrey, Joe, whatsherface Aurora?.

garthoneeye fucked around with this message at 14:29 on Mar 14, 2019

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

The Walrus posted:

Why is everyone assuming everyone on the "Jury'" currently will be on the FTC jury? You can't have 17 people on a jury - I assumed that EoE players were allowed to be part of the jury for now because there is the possibility that they *could* end up on the FTC jury if they make it back in and are subsequently voted out and it's unfair to have them not have the view of the game that other jury members would have.

When Joe got voted out Jeff called him the 4th member of the jury; to me, that implies the people are on the actual jury and not just getting to see tribal.

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

I really liked Aurora this episode. While I agree that her challenge bargaining was bad as a social move, I think as an informational move it was pretty good. Not only does it prove that the rest of Kama isn’t on her side, it also broadcasts that division to anyone looking for a crack.

I think Kama handled her terribly this episode. She as included in the Kama group chat, but whenever small groups of Kama gathered they didn’t even count her as a number.


As a side note, why do people in the majority feel the need to root for their alliance members at Immunity challenges?

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

I think part of it was the people on the bench had the luxury of already being out of the challenge. Also, they might have been trying to hear what Jeff and the med team were saying and Aurora trying to make a deal would make that harder. I also imagine there was probably a bit of extra annoyance because they consider Aurora outside their group and people tend to associate worse motives to people they already dislike.

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

Spergatory posted:

Vecepia. She's the reason it started; she told Neleh "I'll drop out if you swear you'll take me to final two," was taken to the final two, and won the game.
To be fair to Neleh, she couldn’t have won versus Kathy either. The jury hated her.

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

IcePhoenix posted:

Dunno but I do remember reading he still thought he won when he was playing in s20

He gives an interview in 20 where he states or implies he didn’t win 19 because the jury was full of people who don’t care about the game, but this time he’ll win because the previous players will respect him for being an unlikable troll man.

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

ApplesandOranges posted:

Being loyal to an alliance is great if you can beat them at the end. That was the issue with Laurel. She couldn't out-talk Wendell or Domenick. Also see: Ken from MvG. And if you know you can't beat them, you have to recognize when is the right time to flip on them. Ken waited too long. Wardog might have not waited long enough.

I do think this move will probably be beneficial for Lauren, though. I don't think she beats Wentworth if they're both sitting at the end, so if she can get there on her own merits and look like a survivor rather than clueless since her number one ally got blindsided, she's got a real good chance.

I’m not sure I agree that Ken waited too long. Ken turning on David earlier just decreased his chance of being in the final tribal council without really increasing his chances of winning. I think Ken’s problem was 1) not being particularly sociable or outgoing which made it hard for the other player’s to really like him and 2) being in a season where everyone wanted to be seen as making big moves. I mean the jury of Millennials vs Gen X was weird because the winner argued that he split the middle between old school loyal Ken and new school voting block Hannah when all 3 voting histories were identical except for Hannah being on the other end of a split vote and Adam turning on David one vote earlier.

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

I think one of the things about this season is that most of the players seem to want to rope in anyone they think would go along with their plan even if they don’t need the vote. Furthermore, Gavin has said he’ll basically go along with any plan if you have the numbers and he particularly doesn’t like being left out of the loop.

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

Fast Luck posted:

Nobody knew that when they voted him out. He got straight up bounced like any other pre-merge person in any other season. A twist bringing him back in is all well and good, and he's had to survive for awhile now since his return, but that doesn't stop literally being voted out from being at least a negative mark on his resume.

I'm not saying that should necessarily disqualify him, though, as much as I'm saying I just don't like the path to the end of "everyone wants to vote you out for 5 votes in a row but you're just always immune so they can't." It was interesting with Mike Holloway, it was hosed up with Ben's idol bonanza and fire twist, and here it's just kind of tired to me? Like it's changing what the game is about and making it less complex, reducing it to idols and challenges.

Yeah she had some enemies on the jury. Ryan might have actually stood a chance of winning in the Devon/Ryan/Chrissy f3, although I'd be rooting for Devon to make a winning pitch. Now we'll never know :iiam:

I think what made Mike’s when enjoyable was the other options were so unlikeable I was actively rooting against them. I didn’t have that feeling in HvHvH and so I disliked Ben’s win. I don’t have that feeling this season, so I’m also rooting for Devens to not quite make the final even if I mostly enjoy him as a character.

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

MvGX reminds me of China. A really good season with a deserving winner who gives a good final tribal performance that has little to nothing to do with the season we watched and what happened on it.

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

Khanstant posted:

That's what I hate. If the jury picks a pack of screaming howler monkeys to be winner, you gotta just throw ur hands up and accept "oh well by virtue of the fact that they got the most votes, they played the game the best."

Michelle's game started on the day she got the twist advantage of jury-removal. The only thing I think she was really good at in this game was talking to the jury, and that was once given the tools by friendly jurors to use. She gradually got better at that at a really important time I guess ahahaha Sia outta knowehere okay I guess this provides context for her later appearances.

Eww, it goes to Tai? Dude, my biggest problem with him is his like hollow love for "all life." gently caress, nobody loves all life, that's just some hippy dippy bullshit to say. He had a pet chicken, who wouldnt want to have a little island neopet?

The biggest rule to understanding juries in Survivor is that for the most part they vote for whoever they like the most. I think Michelle must have been generally well liked around camp and we weren’t shown that either because the editors wanted the ending to be surprising or because they couldn’t find a way to make it good TV.

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

Spokes posted:

I agree, and this doesn't feel good, right? is there any way they could do something different/better? Like, I understand, social game, blah blah blah, but like, spoilers for DvG and EoE:

The entire post-merge was focused on "Well nobody can beat Christian or Devens at FTC" even though neither of them actually did anything at any point that was Impressive and Vote-Worthy, they were just two guys who were funny and clever and nice to be around. I don't care much because it was fun TV and I'm not a crazy die-hard survivor strategy fan or anything, but I could definitely see that as a strategic competitor who wants to win it could be frustrating

It just changes what proper strategic play is. It’s part of why superfans of the show are kinda bad at it, because the show presents itself as a show where you have to outmaneuver people and it seems like a lot of contestants don’t know this.

Honestly, I’d prefer if people recognized this truth on the show so we could get out if this era of “resume-building.”

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

SLICK GOKU BABY posted:

Also Shane is in the woods with a baggie of cocaine.

No voting; you’re given a pack of cigarettes and if Shane manages to steal them from you, you have to leave.

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

I also sometimes wonder if the clean sweeps happen because the jury knows which way the wind is blowing and an off vote can almost seem like spite toward the third finalist because if 2nd and 3rd tie they both get the prize for 2nd.

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

Spergatory posted:

Danni Boatwright, season 11, Guatemala. She thought Stephanie was a production favorite and figured the show wanted her to win, so she kept her cards close to her vest even when dealing with them.

I also think Danni has said she figured out some of the dynamics of what others in the tribe were thinking/doing by the questions she was asked in the interviews, so she didn’t feed them information so they wouldn’t unintentionally give her plans away either.

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garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

Sand Monster posted:

I'm probably the only one who thinks that the whole Eliza/stick thing isn't super hilarious. She still tried to play it at Tribal Council. I get it -- there's no harm for her to do so, as the worst case is Jeff says it's not an idol, but if it was so obviously "just a stick" and not an idol, I feel like that assessment would have been better served in "Survivor" lore had she just throw it down at Jason's feet and laughed at him for being such an imbecile to believe that it was authentic, and NOT tried to play it.

She played it to blow up Ozzie’s game. Whether that’s a good thing someone just being voted out should do or not is up to you.

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