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Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

The Oldest Man posted:

god i love consent manufacturing



From 1989 to 1993, he was special assistant to President George H. W. Bush and National Security Council senior director for Near East and South Asian Affairs. In 1991, Haass received the Presidential Citizens Medal for helping to develop and explain U.S. policy during Operation Desert Shield and Operation Desert Storm.

Richard Haass worked for Secretary of State Colin Powell in the Bush administration and was director of policy planning at the State Department from 2001 to 2003 during the lead-up to the Iraq war. Haass has said he was 60 percent against the Iraq war.

...

In April 2023 former U.S. officials including Richard Haas, Charles Kupchan, Thomas Graham, and Mary Beth Long, among others, were reported to have conducted unofficial meetings with Russian diplomat Lavrov.[16] In an extensive article published by the Council on Foreign Relations' Foreign Affairs, Haass and Kupchan detailed what they termed as a "a plan for getting from the battlefield to the negotiating table." These interactions were allegedly centered on adjusting U.S. policy with the intent of facilitating Russia's acquisition of Ukrainian territory, an action that is purportedly in violation of U.S. law. The engagement of former U.S. officials in informal dialogues with Russians has led to a schism among American diplomats, foreign policy academics, and national security experts. Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia under President Obama, voiced concern that conversations about potential resolutions without involvement of Ukrainian representatives, could undermine the stance of the Biden administration insisting that Ukraine’s future can't be decided in backrooms: “If you’re having Track Two negotiations about how to end the war, Ukrainians have to be there,” said McFaul.

Trabisnikof has issued a correction as of 19:51 on Apr 15, 2024

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Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

The Oldest Man posted:

god i love consent manufacturing



Hmm. Yes. The civilian air base.

Votskomit
Jun 26, 2013

SixteenShells posted:

Am I right in assuming nothing about the whole "we gave just about everything in our stockpile to Ukraine and Israel" situation has changed in the last few months? What the gently caress would the USA even wage a ware against Iran with, rocks and sticks?

I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but... actually I do. It will be fought with sticks and stones.
- Albert Einstein

RaySmuckles
Oct 14, 2009


:vapes:
Grimey Drawer

Orange Devil posted:

It's the same admiration as for the Nazis, who were also constrained in their production power, isn't it?

The US apparently hates the way it wins its wars. But then when they lose they blame not being able to have done more of that same thing. It's a very curious thing.

because of the type of socio-economic transformation that fighting a "winning" war requires

centralization, mass production, huge amounts of labor which then requires concessions to said laborers. huge amounts of people involved in the various complex societal pillars that make the war happen: that means we need way more people educated, provided for, incentivized, and when the war is over all of that talent needs somewhere to go and something to do. a mass populace suddenly politically awoken and motivated.

mass industrial war is downright socialist and will push a society away from obviously stupid and self-destructive capitalist ideology.

that's part of why the dream has always been "minimalist, techno-supremacist" wankery. "what if we could win a war on societal scale but without all of that nasty society?"

Strangelet Wave
Nov 6, 2004

Surely you're joking!

Hubbert posted:

We just don't know why Iran launched an unprovoked and unsolicited attack. It's baffling really, no possible explanation. :shrug:

and we’ll certainly never know why they decided to attack [military targets in] civilian “areas”. just unfathomable

frozenphil
Mar 13, 2003

YOU CANNOT MAKE A MISTAKE SO BIG THAT 80 GRIT CAN'T FIX IT!
:smug:

SixteenShells posted:

Am I right in assuming nothing about the whole "we gave just about everything in our stockpile to Ukraine and Israel" situation has changed in the last few months? What the gently caress would the USA even wage a ware against Iran with, rocks and sticks?

I was in the army 20 years go, but we were using shells with 1940's lot numbers then. The US didn't give Ukraine everything it had or even close to it. Emptying stockpiles is for the dumber European countries.

BearsBearsBears
Aug 4, 2022

frozenphil posted:

I was in the army 20 years go, but we were using shells with 1940's lot numbers then. The US didn't give Ukraine everything it had or even close to it. Emptying stockpiles is for the dumber European countries.

The US gave Ukraine just about its entire stock of (edit:155mm) HE shells. The US should have plenty of cluster munitions left as 80% of pre-war US munitions stockpiles were cluster munitions.

BearsBearsBears has issued a correction as of 00:50 on Apr 16, 2024

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
The US isn't out of shells (they been getting replacement shipments from the Koreans at least), but it really doesn't seem like the got shells coming out of their ears either, or they would be handing them over to at least Israel.

A major land war isn't going to be in the cards.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Trabisnikof posted:

From 1989 to 1993, he was special assistant to President George H. W. Bush and National Security Council senior director for Near East and South Asian Affairs. In 1991, Haass received the Presidential Citizens Medal for helping to develop and explain U.S. policy during Operation Desert Shield and Operation Desert Storm.

Richard Haass worked for Secretary of State Colin Powell in the Bush administration and was director of policy planning at the State Department from 2001 to 2003 during the lead-up to the Iraq war. Haass has said he was 60 percent against the Iraq war.

...

In April 2023 former U.S. officials including Richard Haas, Charles Kupchan, Thomas Graham, and Mary Beth Long, among others, were reported to have conducted unofficial meetings with Russian diplomat Lavrov.[16] In an extensive article published by the Council on Foreign Relations' Foreign Affairs, Haass and Kupchan detailed what they termed as a "a plan for getting from the battlefield to the negotiating table." These interactions were allegedly centered on adjusting U.S. policy with the intent of facilitating Russia's acquisition of Ukrainian territory, an action that is purportedly in violation of U.S. law. The engagement of former U.S. officials in informal dialogues with Russians has led to a schism among American diplomats, foreign policy academics, and national security experts. Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia under President Obama, voiced concern that conversations about potential resolutions without involvement of Ukrainian representatives, could undermine the stance of the Biden administration insisting that Ukraine’s future can't be decided in backrooms: “If you’re having Track Two negotiations about how to end the war, Ukrainians have to be there,” said McFaul.

Do you condemn Haass???

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024
Probation
Can't post for 2 hours!

BearsBearsBears posted:

The US gave Ukraine just about its entire stock of HE shells. The US should have plenty of cluster munitions left as 80% of pre-war US munitions stockpiles were cluster munitions.

Which are 155, and that was why the switch was made in the first place.

Which brings us back full circle, to that stockpile being produced for one specific scenario, and unless a tank army comes crashing through Fulda, doesn't do anyone much good.

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

RaySmuckles posted:


that's part of why the dream has always been "minimalist, techno-supremacist" wankery. "what if we could win a war on societal scale but without all of that nasty society?"

Don’t worry I bet this doesn’t parallel the doctrinal ideas of any European military during the start of WW2

Scarabrae
Oct 7, 2002
Probation
Can't post for 3 days!
just run the empire out of ammo bing bong

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

Which are 155, and that was why the switch was made in the first place.

Which brings us back full circle, to that stockpile being produced for one specific scenario, and unless a tank army comes crashing through Fulda, doesn't do anyone much good.

Honestly, it doesn't seem like DPICM shells have been great against armored vehicles.

frozenphil
Mar 13, 2003

YOU CANNOT MAKE A MISTAKE SO BIG THAT 80 GRIT CAN'T FIX IT!
:smug:

BearsBearsBears posted:

The US gave Ukraine just about its entire stock of HE shells.

I would be astonished if they did. Even the tiny base in Fairbanks I was stationed at had hundreds of thousands of HE shells. There was a huge issue with figuring out where to send all of our 105mm shells after we switched to 155mm with the Stryker Brigade conversion.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Hundreds of thousands of shells is like a couple weeks of fighting during this conflict.

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024
Probation
Can't post for 2 hours!

Ardennes posted:

Hundreds of thousands of shells is like a couple weeks of fighting during this conflict.

It's really hard to convey that what's a pain in the rear end and seems like a waste of space and time in peacetime is vital in war, and we're in a society that discourages that kind of thinking generally. I used to loving hate going to the cages for a week while the Q inventoried spare parts, and was relieved whenever the stuff we had to keep on hand was reduced, but lol this war has really made that our quartermaster was dramatically undersized sink in.

DJJIB-DJDCT has issued a correction as of 23:34 on Apr 15, 2024

frozenphil
Mar 13, 2003

YOU CANNOT MAKE A MISTAKE SO BIG THAT 80 GRIT CAN'T FIX IT!
:smug:

Ardennes posted:

Hundreds of thousands of shells is like a couple weeks of fighting during this conflict.

Wikipedia says over 2m 155mm rounds from the US, that's a few bases worth. Granted, again, my info is from 20 years ago regarding the stockpile at a single small base in Alaska, but I would be astonished if the US was anywhere close to "out" of artillery rounds. The Ft. Sill ammo facilities are gargantuan.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

frozenphil posted:

I would be astonished if they did.

You're right; they didn't. The US held back a bunch of ammo and equipment required for other plans, training, etc. You're not going to empty out your ammo supply for Ukraine, because there might be a US requirement. Aid for Ukraine has always been constrained by what the US was willing to give up without harming its own OPLAN/CONPLAN requirements.

Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

frozenphil posted:

Wikipedia says over 2m 155mm rounds from the US, that's a few bases worth. Granted, again, my info is from 20 years ago regarding the stockpile at a single small base in Alaska, but I would be astonished if the US was anywhere close to "out" of artillery rounds. The Ft. Sill ammo facilities are gargantuan.

10,000 shells a day, 300,000 shells a month, 3.6 million shells a year

I think maybe you're not grasping the scale of industrial warfare, which, to be fair, is a problem most of the western world is having so you aren't alone

frozenphil
Mar 13, 2003

YOU CANNOT MAKE A MISTAKE SO BIG THAT 80 GRIT CAN'T FIX IT!
:smug:

Nix Panicus posted:

10,000 shells a day, 300,000 shells a month, 3.6 million shells a year

I think maybe you're not grasping the scale of industrial warfare, which, to be fair, is a problem most of the western world is having so you aren't alone

I completely understand that, but the US did not provide all of that, and they certainly did not provide all of the HE they had.

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024
Probation
Can't post for 2 hours!

frozenphil posted:

I completely understand that, but the US did not provide all of that, and they certainly did not provide all of the HE they had.

The larger point is that it doesn't matter if they provided literally all of it, they have the same problem of replacing any amount they gave away.

e: jfc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6hClRAOnzc

BearsBearsBears
Aug 4, 2022

frozenphil posted:

Wikipedia says over 2m 155mm rounds from the US, that's a few bases worth. Granted, again, my info is from 20 years ago regarding the stockpile at a single small base in Alaska, but I would be astonished if the US was anywhere close to "out" of artillery rounds. The Ft. Sill ammo facilities are gargantuan.

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-95-89/html/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-95-89.htm

I did find this report that states that the US Army had about 3m 155mm HE rounds in 1995. Stockpiles of 105mm rounds were significantly higher at 9m but without fuses. So it was my mistake, it's only 155mm HE that the US is almost out of.

Interestingly enough there's no mention of an Alaska stockpile that I could find in the report.

frozenphil
Mar 13, 2003

YOU CANNOT MAKE A MISTAKE SO BIG THAT 80 GRIT CAN'T FIX IT!
:smug:

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

The larger point is that it doesn't matter if they provided literally all of it, they have the same problem of replacing any amount they gave away.

e: jfc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6hClRAOnzc

I guess my point is that the idea the US gave Ukraine all of our ammo is dumb, but I agree that we have no capacity to replace what has been given.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
The question is also, with minimum stockpiles, is the US really that interested in a peer to peer conflict or are they going to have to come to terms they can't hold on to their current red lines?

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003


lmao

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/edwardkeyjf/status/1779960118173470853?t=rPhdNSTZijfGrHtyJeL7Xg&s=19

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024
Probation
Can't post for 2 hours!

Never going to happen in a peacetime military under the Regimental System.

There is one (1) artillery regiment (actually, two, there's also the Honourable Artillery Company) to lobby for the guns. There are... more infantry regiments than I can care to count, including the blue bloods in the Household Division.

Who do you suppose has more members of the House of Commons, and more importantly House of Lords, to call up, in the Regimental Association, Honorary Colonels, Colonels-in-Chief etc. ?

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


politically, in 1945 you had conservatives who understood putting the boot on the neck of capital was a matter of survival and liberal factions that not only agreed, but understood longer-term profitability too

so both agreed that the socialists were quite right in many respects and met them halfway lmao

Owlbear Camus
Jan 3, 2013

Maybe this guy that flies is just sort of passing through, you know?




amusingly the bit about nco's taking tactical initiative when they lose an officer/snco (before it gets real stupid) is part of the myrhthology of the might of the wehemacht too.

poisonpill
Nov 8, 2009

The only way to get huge fast is to insult a passing witch and hope she curses you with Beast-strength.


Maybe the US should ask all its soldiers to pray for Ukrainian victory

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

American liberal elites like FDR and Keynes I think had a genuine belief that western would could peacefully transition from capitalist social democracy to communism and given how friendly FDR and Stalin were and how subordinated capital in the US was briefly to the war effort it was a totally reasonable and comforting/self-serving belief at that time.

BearsBearsBears
Aug 4, 2022

Owlbear Camus posted:

amusingly the bit about nco's taking tactical initiative when they lose an officer/snco (before it gets real stupid) is part of the myrhthology of the might of the wehemacht too.

Doesn't this imply that US/wehrmact officers were so incompetent that losing them actually made the unit perform better?

Owlbear Camus
Jan 3, 2013

Maybe this guy that flies is just sort of passing through, you know?



BearsBearsBears posted:

Doesn't this imply that US/wehrmact officers were so incompetent that losing them actually made the unit perform better?

I think the framing was more "in the event that they lose an officer, the noble unterfeldwebel/staff sergeant has the initiative and know how to take over effective command of the platoon which makes them less tactically brittle, unlike dumb moron armies who just immediately tip over like star wars battle droids without a command ship" but your version is probably an easy sell for any infantryman who's had to do land nav with a freshly minted 2lt.

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024
Probation
Can't post for 2 hours!

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

American liberal elites like FDR and Keynes I think had a genuine belief that western would could peacefully transition from capitalist social democracy to communism and given how friendly FDR and Stalin were and how subordinated capital in the US was briefly to the war effort it was a totally reasonable and comforting/self-serving belief at that time.

Rawls believed they would reason themselves into it, and he was like the Thomas Aquinas of liberalism, so you're onto something.

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

Rawls believed they would reason themselves into it, and he was like the Thomas Aquinas of liberalism, so you're onto something.

I'm gonna have to remember that Rawls is the Thomas Aquinas of Liberalism. Thats just perfect

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

Owlbear Camus posted:

amusingly the bit about nco's taking tactical initiative when they lose an officer/snco (before it gets real stupid) is part of the myrhthology of the might of the wehemacht too.

might as well go with myrrhthology, because the magi showing up with a gift of artillery shells seems about as realistic as the actual us replacement plans

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

Rawls believed they would reason themselves into it, and he was like the Thomas Aquinas of liberalism, so you're onto something.

unfortunately Rawls was arguing that from Law theory and was kinda bad on political economy

Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

BearsBearsBears posted:

Doesn't this imply that US/wehrmact officers were so incompetent that losing them actually made the unit perform better?

When you're expected to suicidally attack in every situation regardless of numbers or equipment its not like 'showing initiative' is difficult

Real Mean Queen
Jun 2, 2004

Zesty.


The Oldest Man posted:

god i love consent manufacturing



Like you, this guy is confused about current events that he knows about, here's a quick explainer just you're up to speed. That wasn't so bad, was it? Luckily for you, this guy is an expert on this kind of thing, so it's kind of like you're an expert now too. The expert thinks Iran really messed up bad here. You don't want to look dumb in front of the expert, do you?

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Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

How much human suffering is down to the basic inability to call someone in a position of authority a stupid fucker to their face?

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