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Who do you wish to win the Democratic primaries?
This poll is closed.
Joe Biden, the Inappropriate Toucher 18 1.46%
Bernie Sanders, the Hand Flailer 665 54.11%
Elizabeth Warren, the Plan Maker 319 25.96%
Kamala Harris, the Cop Lord 26 2.12%
Cory Booker, the Super Hero Wannabe 5 0.41%
Julian Castro, the Twin 5 0.41%
Kirsten Gillibrand, the Franken Killer 5 0.41%
Pete Buttigieg, the Troop Sociopath 17 1.38%
Robert Francis O'Rourke, the Fake Latino 3 0.24%
Jay Inslee, the Climate Alarmist 8 0.65%
Marianne Williamson, the Crystal Queen 86 7.00%
Tulsi Gabbard, the Muslim Hater 23 1.87%
Andrew Yang, the $1000 Fool 32 2.60%
Eric Swalwell, the Insurance Wife Guy 2 0.16%
Amy Klobuchar, the Comb Enthusiast 1 0.08%
Bill de Blasio, the NYPD Most Hated 4 0.33%
Tim Ryan, the Dope Face 3 0.24%
John Hickenlooper, the Also Ran 7 0.57%
Total: 1229 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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VH4Ever
Oct 1, 2005

by sebmojo

I love how this tool honestly thinks doing poo poo like this will get him elected president. What a goober.

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Jack2142
Jul 17, 2014

Shitposting in Seattle

The crazy thing is everyone saying Biden has Boomer Brain,

He actually isn't even a baby boomer... he is worse. He is a member of the Silent Generation, which is even more conservative and awful. They are finally getting their shot at president in 2020!!! They may have gotten swooped by the Clinton's, Bush & Obama, but now is their time right before they all die.

Jack2142 fucked around with this message at 03:54 on Aug 10, 2019

zetamind2000
Nov 6, 2007

I'm an alien.

Is the debate next month limited to ten people or is there the possibility of a few more being let in if they qualify? Because if it's limited to ten people then I'll laugh forever if Castro manages to edge out Steyer from ever being in a debate.

Willie Tomg
Feb 2, 2006
In case anyone forgot I'm awkward as gently caress and say awful things all the time

https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1159870679824687105

finally: a non PC democrat

Pembroke Fuse
Dec 29, 2008
I legitimately feel bad for Biden now, because I think his legal guardian should gently get him to drop out.

Craptacular!
Jul 9, 2001

Fuck the DH
https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1159842438241894400

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin
Warren is going to get killed by Trump.

BristolSOF
Jan 19, 2003

HootTheOwl posted:

Bernie is going to get killed by Trump.

Fixed for you

birdstrike
Oct 30, 2008

i;m gay

BristolSOF posted:

Trump is going to get killed by avshalom.

Fixed for you

Terror Sweat
Mar 15, 2009

Willie Tomg posted:

In case anyone forgot I'm awkward as gently caress and say awful things all the time

https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1159870679824687105

finally: a non PC democrat

Lol at the dude wearing a shirt with mlk quoted on it going to a pro-segregationists presidential rally

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



HootTheOwl posted:

Warren is going to get killed by Trump.
Warren would do fine, but clearly Trump wants to get his shot against Biden and I think he would destroy Biden, who apparently now has worse mush brain than Trump

the_steve
Nov 9, 2005

We're always hiring!

FlamingLiberal posted:

Warren would do fine, but clearly Trump wants to get his shot against Biden and I think he would destroy Biden, who apparently now has worse mush brain than Trump

Trump would absolutely destroy Biden.

Biden: "And because Mr. Trump continued to interrupt my answers with fart noises, and evaded answering his own questions by instead calling for the systemic elimination of minorities, I clearly am the real winner of the debate, no matter what the election results say."

Son of Thunderbeast
Sep 21, 2002
I would unashamedly laugh my rear end off at a debate where Trump interrupted Biden with fart noises.

Kith
Sep 17, 2009

You never learn anything
by doing it right.


Trump would absolutely flatten Biden. Ol' Jobden is garbage at handling that kind of pressure and can't land an attack to save his life.

Bernie would treat the debate like a knife fight and actually get somewhere. Warren might too, but I haven't paid enough attention to her debate style to get a feel for how she'd handle it.

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

Having done a comprehensive debate style analysis of every candidate, Im convinced only Inslee and Buttigieg have a chance of defeating Trump in that aspect

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Inverted Offensive Battle: Acupuncture Attacks Convert To 3D Penetration Tactics Taking Advantage of Deep Battle Opportunities

Son of Thunderbeast posted:

I would unashamedly laugh my rear end off at a debate where Trump interrupted Biden with fart noises.

Or just interrupted him with childish schoolyard insults.

“You’re a fartface poopy butt!”

*audience stands and applauds, media says this was the day Trump became president*

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Willie Tomg posted:

In case anyone forgot I'm awkward as gently caress and say awful things all the time

https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1159870679824687105

finally: a non PC democrat

the media keeps asking biden unfair gotcha questions like "is trump racist" and "please do not say anything racist to this group of minorities"

Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 05:26 on Aug 10, 2019

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

FlamingLiberal posted:

Warren would do fine, but clearly Trump wants to get his shot against Biden and I think he would destroy Biden, who apparently now has worse mush brain than Trump

It's hard to say how Warren would do, because it's unclear how much she would benefit from the full support of the media post-nomination. Currently her support base is very narrow demographically in a way that would likely translate poorly in the general election (since her supporters are mostly higher-income white people, which likely benefits her more in the primary than the general), but that could change if Democratic-aligned media supported her after her nomination. I feel like Warren would be a somewhat more popular Hillary Clinton in terms of her popularity (which would probably be enough to beat Trump).

Hopefully it doesn't come to that, though. I still don't really understand why she's running. The only possibilities seem to be that she wins on the back of centrist/center-left Dems, which is bad for obvious reasons (since she'd have the wrong type of pressure on her when elected), or she wins with the support of a lot of left-leaning Dems, in which case she will have likely prevented Sanders from being nominated.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Shear Modulus posted:

the media keeps asking biden unfair gotcha questions like "is trump racist" and "please do not say anything racist to this group of minorities"
Or 'which Segregationist Senator did you love working with'

Eschenique
Jul 19, 2019

HootTheOwl posted:

Warren is going to get killed by Trump.

the DNA test thing was pretty awkward. Warren stepped up to bat against Trump in a battle of wits and Trump just soundly defeated her.

Usually Trump ignores an opponents arguments or talk over them while being demonstrably wrong to anyone with a brain.

But here he set up the trap and she went right into it. She accepted his deranged parameters and stepped into his arena thinking if she had facts on her side then he would somehow admit being wrong for the first time ever in his life and also hand over free money.

Instead she ended up insulting the native American community and creating the whole 1000th part native American meme.

tylersayten
Mar 20, 2019

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Ytlaya posted:

I still don't really understand why she's running.

To get back at Trump for the Pocahontas thing. I wish I was joking.

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.

tylersayten posted:

To get back at Trump for the Pocahontas thing. I wish I was joking.

Well, it's not like spite runs based on revenge for petty insults don't have a history of working out at this point...

Eschenique
Jul 19, 2019

It seems grossly optimistic to assume that Warren will beat Trump as a Hillary but better option. As if it's a do-over of '16 and Trump hasn't been president for 4 years.

Trump beat Hillary as just a niche candidate. Since then he has filled the system with his people and to right wingers he has made himself a symbol of America

tylersayten
Mar 20, 2019

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Well, it's not like spite runs based on revenge for petty insults don't have a history of working out at this point...

The difference being Trump has 40+ years experience doing this.

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012
I've said it many times in previous versions of this thread that people tend to over-estimate the impact of candidates and campaigns on election outcomes. Fundamentals matter a lot more. If the economic recession that is predicted to hit soon happens before the 2020 election it is likely that any democratic candidate would beat Trump. Now, the question is what happens if the economy is just iffy instead of full blown recession.

If the fundamentals predict a race that is in any way close, I think Warren is probably the one who would do worst against Trump. Not because of any particular gaffes, but because her campaign has been uniquely tailored towards white educated liberals. Polls are all over the place (because different assumptions about who is going to turn out lead to wildly differing results), but virtually all of them agree on one thing: Warren has very little support outside of white, college educated voters. In the latest surveyusa poll she manages to get 0 among high school only non-white voters. Not a 0% where it's a fraction rounded down, but a literal 0. And this is a relatively favorable poll for her where she has 19% overall. In the Quinnipiac poll, which is the one most favorable to Warren (21% overall, 7 points ahead of Bernie), she is first among college educated whites (28%) and single digits among African Americans (8%, half of Bernie - Quinnipiac didn't include enough Hispanics to report on the poll). To round out her best polls, in the yougov one she is first among white voters and like 4th among Hispanic voters (they don't report education). It's not that those groups don't like her, but they clearly don't find her as appealing as others. So she does poorly precisely among the groups that have lower turn out rates.

Pander
Oct 9, 2007

Fear is the glue that holds society together. It's what makes people suppress their worst impulses. Fear is power.

And at the end of fear, oblivion.



joepinetree posted:

I've said it many times in previous versions of this thread that people tend to over-estimate the impact of candidates and campaigns on election outcomes. Fundamentals matter a lot more. If the economic recession that is predicted to hit soon happens before the 2020 election it is likely that any democratic candidate would beat Trump. Now, the question is what happens if the economy is just iffy instead of full blown recession.

If the fundamentals predict a race that is in any way close, I think Warren is probably the one who would do worst against Trump. Not because of any particular gaffes, but because her campaign has been uniquely tailored towards white educated liberals. Polls are all over the place (because different assumptions about who is going to turn out lead to wildly differing results), but virtually all of them agree on one thing: Warren has very little support outside of white, college educated voters. In the latest surveyusa poll she manages to get 0 among high school only non-white voters. Not a 0% where it's a fraction rounded down, but a literal 0. And this is a relatively favorable poll for her where she has 19% overall. In the Quinnipiac poll, which is the one most favorable to Warren (21% overall, 7 points ahead of Bernie), she is first among college educated whites (28%) and single digits among African Americans (8%, half of Bernie - Quinnipiac didn't include enough Hispanics to report on the poll). To round out her best polls, in the yougov one she is first among white voters and like 4th among Hispanic voters (they don't report education). It's not that those groups don't like her, but they clearly don't find her as appealing as others. So she does poorly precisely among the groups that have lower turn out rates.
Major caveat being while she doesn't seem to inspire African American voters much as a first choice, she also hasn't closed any doors given how poll after poll show her favorables as sky high across all groups, uniquely so.

She seems well positioned to make further gains if minority voters lose faith in their first choices. I love Bernie but he does seem to have a lot more of a high-floor low-ceiling issue hindering him due to poor favorables.

I'm not stressing regardless til we're a lot closer to Iowa.

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012

Pander posted:

Major caveat being while she doesn't seem to inspire African American voters much as a first choice, she also hasn't closed any doors given how poll after poll show her favorables as sky high across all groups, uniquely so.

She seems well positioned to make further gains if minority voters lose faith in their first choices. I love Bernie but he does seem to have a lot more of a high-floor low-ceiling issue hindering him due to poor favorables.

I'm not stressing regardless til we're a lot closer to Iowa.

The "high floor low ceiling" thing with Bernie is a dumb talking point that isn't reflected in polls, so this isn't true at all:
code:
Yougov (where Warren is ahead of Bernie in terms of 1st choice)
Favoriability (very fav+fav)          White     Black    Hispanic
Warren                                  35         52      36
Sanders                                 36         56      44

Dem only:
Warren 64
Sanders 66

Politico/ Morniing consult (dem only, doesn't have cross tabs on favorability)

Warren 61% favorable
Sanders 72% favorable

Harvard/Harris
Favorable+very favorable         overall     White       Black Hispanic Democratic only
Warren                                 37         32      56       41                  63
Sanders                                44         36      66       58                  71



So in that regard the polls are actually the complete opposite of what you said with regards to ceiling. Even in polls where Warren is ahead Bernie has better favorables.


edit: note that the recent polls that include favorability will have favorables for the entire sample (which includes republicans) and for democrats only, but doesn't break it down by race within the democratic only part.

joepinetree fucked around with this message at 07:25 on Aug 10, 2019

Jack2142
Jul 17, 2014

Shitposting in Seattle

Eschenique posted:

It seems grossly optimistic to assume that Warren will beat Trump as a Hillary but better option. As if it's a do-over of '16 and Trump hasn't been president for 4 years.

Trump beat Hillary as just a niche candidate. Since then he has filled the system with his people and to right wingers he has made himself a symbol of America

I mean he also had no record so people could just project whatever fantasies they had on a prospective Trump presidency. Now he has a record and it sucks poo poo and has provided numerous examples of his utter suck for most Americans. He has his floor, but I think his ceiling is a lot lower this time around. It probably plummets even further if we have a recession before the election and they tie it all back to his tariff slap fights with everyone.

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.

Jack2142 posted:

I mean he also had no record so people could just project whatever fantasies they had on a prospective Trump presidency. Now he has a record and it sucks poo poo and has provided numerous examples of his utter suck for most Americans. He has his floor, but I think his ceiling is a lot lower this time around. It probably plummets even further if we have a recession before the election and they tie it all back to his tariff slap fights with everyone.

Eh, depends on when he gets full on back in election mode and the media continues to cling to him like a smitten teenager to provide a megaphone to get his base into full on death cult mode.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



bernie is basically where obama was pre-iowa where many people liked him the best but didnt offer him as their first choice because he wasnt "electable"

Finicums Wake
Mar 13, 2017
Probation
Can't post for 8 years!

Ytlaya posted:

I like how we're apparently calling "saying incredibly racist poo poo" gaffes now. Like it's just a goofy case of misspeaking.

biden's behavior is hosed up. both on its merits, and viewed in isolation. but what is equally if not more hosed up is how the press is treating his so-called 'gaffes,' especially compared with other candidates' non-gaffe statements.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Finicums Wake posted:

biden's behavior is hosed up. both on its merits, and viewed in isolation. but what is equally if not more hosed up is how the press is treating his so-called 'gaffes,' especially compared with other candidates' non-gaffe statements.

bernie says that the three richest families own more wealth than the bottom 50% of americans, but this is only true because the bottom 50% have no net worth at all. verdict: 10 pinnochios

Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 09:44 on Aug 10, 2019

the_steve
Nov 9, 2005

We're always hiring!

Shear Modulus posted:

bernie says that the three richest families own more wealth than the bottom 50% of americans, but this is only true because the bottom 50% have no net worth at all. verdict: 10 pinnochios

To be fair, if you're only correct because the facts and evidence support your claim, then were you really correct at all?

Now, here's a 56 page Op-Ed about how Biden trying to dress a black kid up as a lawn jockey was just some harmless fun from a different time and we should really give him a break because it's important that he can beat Trump.

Diqnol
May 10, 2010

BristolSOF posted:

Fixed for you

Do you want to explain why you think this?

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

ELO Musk posted:

Do you want to explain why you think this?

I eagerly await his reply, and also same question to the "warren would" poster from just above.

King of Solomon
Oct 23, 2008

S S

Chilichimp posted:

I eagerly await his reply, and also same question to the "warren would" poster from just above.

Well, for one thing, Warren still hasn't taken down this website: https://facts.elizabethwarren.com/elizabeth-does-not-take-risperdal/

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin

Chilichimp posted:

I eagerly await his reply, and also same question to the "warren would" poster from just above.

Because, and as evidenced by the last debate, Trump will just start talking over her, or the moderators will say her time is up and she'll just stand there either pleading or looking dumb as they do it. That's the thing about having all these plans and no pithy rhetoric. You have to explain them. Where as Bernie also has these plans but when you all him about them he can summarize them as "Medicine for all".
And, of course:

King of Solomon posted:

Well, for one thing, Warren still hasn't taken down this website: https://facts.elizabethwarren.com/elizabeth-does-not-take-risperdal/
She just let's herself get goaded into this and looking stupid.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

King of Solomon posted:

Well, for one thing, Warren still hasn't taken down this website: https://facts.elizabethwarren.com/elizabeth-does-not-take-risperdal/

'my 'NOT TAKING ANTI PSYCHOTICS' website is raising a lot of questions that are answered by the website'

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer
I could pick the 1-2 times she looked fuckin' rad and also point out how being goaded into defender herself from crank bullshit hasn't backfired on her to this point.

I can then point to Bernie's "rotate the supreme court" stuff and link you the parts of recent interviews where he (does good but) takes a while to get going on his answers.

But I'm not because Bernie and Warren are both fine and neither one would get bodied by Trump and it's ludicrous to try to argue otherwise.

Biden v Trump though... yikes. Who even knows. Will either of them even know?

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Phone
Jul 30, 2005

親子丼をほしい。

Chilichimp posted:

I could pick the 1-2 times she looked fuckin' rad and also point out how being goaded into defender herself from crank bullshit hasn't backfired on her to this point.

I can then point to Bernie's "rotate the supreme court" stuff and link you the parts of recent interviews where he (does good but) takes a while to get going on his answers.

But I'm not because Bernie and Warren are both fine and neither one would get bodied by Trump and it's ludicrous to try to argue otherwise.

Biden v Trump though... yikes. Who even knows. Will either of them even know?

you're a mark if you think that warren vs trump wouldn't turn into round 2 of the clinton vs trump debates (or worse)

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