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adaz
Mar 7, 2009

bill callahan unable to score against the worst defense of all time is the type of prime time entertainment i want to see

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adaz
Mar 7, 2009

LiquidFriend posted:

I remember the Browns/Bills game where Anderson completed like.....2 passes? and they won. What a lovely, wonderful game.

look upon my works, ye mighty, and despair

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200712160cle.htm

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adaz
Mar 7, 2009

I uh... huh

The 49ers look good certainly but 6th best ever seems a bit high

https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1181432583650983939

adaz
Mar 7, 2009

kalensc posted:

. What gives them such a massive lead in the SB Win% column is the projection that they have a 78%~ shot at #1 Seed and 13% shot at #2 Seed (thus the 90.7% bye). For comparison, K.C has the second largest Bye% at 46.7%, and thus FO projections account for K.C playing in the Wild Card round quite often. That extra game, plus a win sending them on the road in the divisional round, significantly lowers their SB Win%.

TL;DR: Read the whole post, cause math is fun. Also, gently caress the Pats & gently caress the NFL Corporation in general. Go Players Go.

AFC East being a dumpster fire for 20 years and giving NE a automatic bye or at worst at least 1 playoff game at home - and therefore like automatically a 15-20% greater chance to win the superbowl every year - is more reasons to hate literally every team in that division. gently caress you AFC East.

adaz
Mar 7, 2009

mastershakeman posted:

I love that the insanely fraudulent bears team is on here

That bears team was an exercise in better lucky than good. Just an incredible amount of Bears Bullshit on turnovers and special teams and occasional sex cannon magic

adaz
Mar 7, 2009


A guy with a weak spleen sitting behind an offensive line that gave up 10 sacks this weekend what could possibly go wrong.

The jets killing their franchise qb is a very jetsy thing to do

adaz
Mar 7, 2009

Professor Funk posted:

His spleen is fine that was the entire point of this saga

Just because you can do something doesnt' mean you should. If he's fresh off a really sucky illness putting him behind a terrible offensive line and risking worse injury as opposed to just waiting a week or two or three (jets arent making the playoffs) is the type of "short term gain, long term risk" thing bad teams do. There is very little point to making him play for you other than for some meaningless wins to hurt your draft position. He does need to play to help him develop that is but why not just be safe. Seriously just sit him to be safe who cares.

adaz
Mar 7, 2009

Kalli posted:

The Falcons are kind of amazing. How are they so bad on defense? Washington, the Giants, Cardinals and Bengals all weren't really trying this year, and the Colts are insanely injured, but the Falcons (and Jaguars) both spent an insane amount of money on their defenses, and they're just... bad.

Also fired their coordinator staff and dan quinn took over for hte defense sooooooooooooooooooo

soooo


That went well. Man the falcons. 28-3 just destroyed that franchise.

adaz
Mar 7, 2009

Spoeank posted:

https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1183595131775131654?s=19


I dunno guys dvoa seems like a foolproof stat to me all of a sudden

From a neutral 3rd party perspective your defense looks really really good. The patriots have defeated hot garbage and super poo poo while y'all have actually beat some good teams.

Although starting to think the Rams are going to go down the Falcons route of post superbowl seasons.

adaz
Mar 7, 2009

Kalli posted:

Weird how the supposed worst division ever has the 2 best teams in the AFC in it, and a 3rd smoked the Cowboys today.

Guess we know where teams are truly forged in fire.

Do you _really_ think the bills are the 2nd best team in the AFC. Be honest.

adaz
Mar 7, 2009

Kalli posted:

I was looking up beatpaths! so I could own you with truly advanced analytics, but I see it stopped updating in 2011 and I was immediately struck with how old I am,

Well advanced metrics (DVOA) has them at 19th which feels a bit low.

dont google beatpaths is my pro tip

Grittybeard posted:

Absolutely not, but at the same time the Bills are weirdly good as far as we know and I don't know what to think about them.

They have a good defense and a.. work in progress? offense. They might be the bears of the AFC. But their schedule is probably good enough to get them to 11 wins because lol

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adaz
Mar 7, 2009

DVOA has them at 3rd but I can see the argument - unlike the Patriots the Bills D usually has to carry games by its lonesome.

Jsut realized that Bills / Cowboys turkey day game is looking a lot better now than it did at the start of the season.

adaz
Mar 7, 2009

seiferguy posted:

I love that teams really have to try for tanking cause so many teams want to do it lol. Normal rear end league.

Probably time to do away with draft order imo and just make it a pure lottery. Maybe do some minor weights for the worst teams but actively encourage teams to be bad is problematic for a competive sports league. Also, as the browns are currently proving, high draft order + picks != success!

adaz
Mar 7, 2009

Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:

Imagine the last two decades with New England randomly getting top picks.

Would it really matter? Teams like the Packers, Seahawks, Patriots, & Steelers consistently pick towards the very bottom and are good year over year. Other teams pick near the top and are bad year over year. The science, such as it is, seems to indicate its better to have more draft picks rather than higher draft picks. The exception to this is QBs and the desperate need for them would lead to more hilarious mitchell trubisky esque trades.


Zoran posted:

The best proposal I’ve seen for draft ordering is to give teams points towards the higher picks for wins after they’ve been mathematically eliminated. So if you go 0-10 and can’t make the playoffs by week 11, winning your next six and finishing strong gives you the best possible draft position.

Eh, that just discourages end season tanking? I want to get rid of it completely. The point of the draft was supposedy to help balance competitive advantage among teams. Unfortunately we're seeing that for some teams that just doesn't matter (i.e. browns) and for others its encouraging them to just be really bad intentionally which further excaberates the problem.

adaz
Mar 7, 2009

Grittybeard posted:

I saw someone suggest for teams out of the playoffs it's reverse order (IE best team that didn't make the playoffs gets #1 overall), then the normal order for playoff teams. I haven't thought about it much but I don't absolutely hate it.

But yeah you guys are right, the comp system is the main thing that needs to go.

I like that a bit better than the draft system. Encourages teams to really try and makes tanking pretty much impossible.

I disagree with getting rid of the comp system, the idea behidn it makes sense that you're too good at drafting players and can't sign guys due to salary cap restrictions so here are some picks to help cushion the blow. The problem is the rookie wage scale has made those 3rd round draft picks ridiculously valuable compared to even a reasonably priced veteran.

adaz
Mar 7, 2009


will get murdered by a team with a pass rush.

I think one could make an argument that the seahawks, 49ers, and patriots are all very very very good teams

adaz
Mar 7, 2009

The Puppy Bowl posted:

Seahawks are possibly worse than their record with a bunch of close wins. The Patriots have played one real team and that was close with their opponent being down a starting QB for the back half of the game. 49ers look the most real thus far too me.

There are no true flawless teams though - and id say the one weakness of the 49er remains jimmy g who throws too many ints - but those 3 remain very very good teams. I think when Drew Brees comes back you can add the Saints to that list too. They combine good offenses with great defenses which is something to be said in 2019.

adaz
Mar 7, 2009

Grittybeard posted:

Saints are rolling along with Teddy B. Assuming Brees comes back at any point I think we can call them good, and they might just be good anyway.

The pay a ton for a backup QB startegy definitely paid off for them and that defense (!!!!) looks really good. It helps to have a good coaching staff. This might be the most stark year ever for coaching haves/have nots. AYou have the saints looking really great despite having a backup qb (granted a good backup qb). The Steelers look marginally OK despite being on their 3rd string QB. The Panthers are quietely winning games with Kyle Allen. The Colts are still competitive somehow despite their franchise QB quitting like the day before the season starts.

On the other side... you have the Jets who just had 0 plan when Darnold went down. The deadskins gave up by game 2 it felt like. The falcons might have the worst defense in the league (non-dolphins category) with their head coaching "taking over the defense" and hte cleveland browns seem intent upon wasting nick chubb and ruining baker mayfield.

adaz
Mar 7, 2009

Full on pumping the breaks on the Chiefs. Even with Mahommes healthy that defense is so loving bad against teams who can run the ball they get no chance. The offense had the ball for 76 seconds during the 4th quarter last night and I believe the last 2 games the TOP was something like 39:21 against the chiefs.

They can still be a good team sure because of Mahommes Magic but when teams can keep him off the field consistently that's a pretty bad flaw. They have to win one way - get up quick and force teams to become one dimensional

adaz
Mar 7, 2009

a neat cape posted:

And soon they'll have to pay Mahomes like 300 million dollars and can't fix the defense even if they want to

And blew draft picks and even more cap space on frank clark which looks real bad in hindsight.

Grittybeard posted:

The Chiefs are basically turning every running back they face into prime Jim Brown.

The worrying thing is they're supposed to win when they go up big early. They did that yesterday, and Bill O'Brien, noted idiot, was able to figure out no matter what happens you don't need to panic against this defense.

5.1
6.8
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team YPC against the chiefs. That's uh, not good especially since in the last 2 games they knew they were going to just run down the gut over and over and over. The "blueprint" is out to beat the chiefs now. Step on his ankle and run the ball over and over. I do trust Andy to fix the offense to an extent but not sure how they get better on defense.

adaz fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Oct 14, 2019

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adaz
Mar 7, 2009

as opposed to nowadays where multimillionaires with access to a vast global network of medical professionals definitely aren't. Just avoiding that nightshade amirite

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