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The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Firstly, amazing thread title.

Second to the question of Irish populism. There are dickheads trying it. And depending on the part of the country you are in you can get some traction with a bullshit "we have to be careful with immigration or our culture will be damaged" dog whistles.
But so far, they are joy succeeding like is happening in the rest of the Western World.
Gemma O'Doherty is using a lot of that, but she is making no traction thankfully.

All that being said, Ireland is not immune to this garbage. And every so often you can see a surge in racism. But I think the flirtation with populist racism is not working.

As for the Greens I think they could get a very big bounce from earnest people who want to do something about the environment.
But I'm cynical enough to think that if Greens get in it will be as coalition partners who will capitulate almost totally to the major party.

Full on "we passed the measures to reduce social welfare payments in exchange for a ban on fireplaces."
In short Irish Lib Dems.

From the news today Leo has floated a FF/FG coalition. Which suggests he's bracing for heavy loses.
Martin has rejected this which suggests that FF are expecting to be in power on their own.

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The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

happyhippy posted:

You're right, immigrant taxi drivers get a lot of abuse, only learned out here recently there are parts of Cork they won't even drive into due to the runners and/or attacks they will get.

The plight of taxi drivers here is really difficult.

One thing I have noticed is a number of female friends who have said that they would not take a taxi home if the driver was black and they were on their own.

On the one hand this is a form of prejudice that's clouding their decision and logically they are no more at risk from a white taxi driver than a non-white one.

On the other side, it's an irrational fear on their part. And you can't try and "actually..." that away. (As it is I have a good idea how safe and dangerous it is in Ireland. But people dont want to be told "you are totally safe. If you are attacked it was statistically unlikely to happen.")

Plus as a man, I can't really go and lecture women on their lived in experiences.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Skull Servant posted:

Oh absolutely. A lot of that seems to come down to ignorance of the Travelling culture, with people just assuming they are settled Irish who decided one day to abandon the sedentary life.

EDIT: Irish Times are reporting that a poll in Donegal has SF picking up a second seat there, taking from either FF or Pringle. Casey is on 2%, being outpolled by the Aontú candidate ón 3%.

Donegal poll finds Sinn Féin may take seat from Independent or Fianna Fáil (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ire...%A1il-1.4149445

That makes sense. After the last Presidential election there was speculation that he would run for a TD in Donegal. One of my very politically astute friends said if he tried that the multiple big party political machines in those areas would feed Casey his teeth.
And 'lo that is happening.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

kustomkarkommando posted:

Mary Lou has been pretty clearly doing the work within the party to move them towards coalition based on delivering housing and health reform, the previous line was they would never enter a coalition unless they where the majority party but that was quite openly shelved at their last ard fheis. From her speech last year:


Speaking of, is one of SF's big platforms still the removal of the Special Criminal Court so Republicans can engage in jury intimidation so innocent people aren't found guilty?

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Southpaugh posted:

lmao if she posted that here she'd have eaten a probe. Not surprising to hear hes hard to relate to, everything I've heard about the guy leads me to believe he's a coke snorting sociopath.

A friend of mine works in the Civil Service and worked in (I think) the Department of Health when Leo was there.

He said that when he ran into Leo in the Lifts he would stand facing everyone and not talk.

Then some months after this my friend was at a work do and his boss introduced my friend to Leo.
My friend said he had met Leo before on a number of occasions in the lift.

My friend says that Leo's response was basically "I dont remember ever seeing you before. So you must be lying."

It was this gag from Family Guy, put in real life.
(If the link doesn't work it's from the 4 minute 20 second mark.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BImVg9SaoWg

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

I've noticed a number of work colleges who I follow on Twitter (the Joy's of having to maintain professional relationships. ) are making long posts about having to be "sensible" and "how we can't afford to support parties that are promising free things and how everything has a cost."

And really it is all code for "I am voting FG/FF because I am financially comfortable and that is all that matters."

So it also means I know whom I can disapprove of because of their politics.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Foul Ole Ron posted:

Looks like little to no recovery or development outside of urban centres has finally bitten FG on the arse (two polls is pretty telling). I'm certainly opposed to the idea of "anyone but FG" but I am glad they are looking to loose out here.

My problem is that I really hate how FG just don't give a poo poo about the homeless or the hospital waiting lists. And that RCI/DMP "commemoration" really felt like boot licking of the Empire.

But on the flip side, I will always blame FF for how so many of my friends had to emigrate.

I just wish both could lose really hard.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

kustomkarkommando posted:

I was greatly disappointed to discover he wasn't some hurling old boy trying to remind everyone he used to play county but rather just a run of the mill insane right winger

He was one of these insane “Freemen of the land” types. But worse because he went around offering his services to represent people in court in a manner similar to being a lawyer, without actually being a lawyer.
(Obviously lawyers didn’t like this. Lawyers spend years training to be given the privilege of being able to act as an advocate for others in court. Gilroy took a system designed to help people in family law cases, McKenzie friends, and abused it.)
Well he did up until he got a court order banning him from representing anybody else in court.

He also got jailed for contempt of court for constantly ignoring court orders in house repossession cases, often ones where he was representing other people.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Failed Imagineer posted:

wait, are we doing anti-Semitic tropes in Irish politics as well now?

Alan Shatter tried that as a response to why he was turfed out of the Government. It got almost universally ignored.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Went out and voted. The polling station seemed to be clear traffic wise up to 11 AM, really heavy after that and then light around 3 PM when my wife and I voted. We are in Kildare North.
They said when we were there that the turnout was about 44-45%. I suspect it might go up after dinner time.


Low percentages often help the Conservatives, unless we are witnessing some weird election where the undecideds are too pissed to vote for FF/FG and decide to abstain. But I doubt that will happen.

My hope is that we don't have FF hit 50-60 seats like some of the polls were predicting.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

kustomkarkommando posted:

FG win through controversial VAR decision

They don't call him Leonardo De VARadkar for nothing. He invented that machine after all.

And another machine that wakes up early in the morning to go hunt down welfare cheats.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

So in good news Shane Ross looks like he's getting tossed out.
That's great news, as far as I am concerned.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

I’m watching the same work friends who were being passive aggressive about SF in this election saying that now saying that the people who voted for SF are delusional, and if they wanted real left progression they should have voted for Labour. (In between lots of comments about how we need to be “realistic on how we costs free services” Which seems to me be another way of saying “I only want to help people, as long as my standard of living is not in any way effected.”)

I think the message should be, this election saw a huge surge in support for left ideas. So why could Labour not capitalise on that?

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Standish posted:

You answered your own question :v:

Oh I'm not seeking an answer to the question. I'm saying that it should be one of the questions people ask in the aftermath of this election instead of "don't people know that SF aren't great? Why can't the Irish people just vote for the Center Right again?[/quote]


quote:

Seriously though, Labour couldn't even manage to vote against appealing the €13 billion Apple tax judgement, that's right, they voted in favour of a 0.005% tax rate for the richest company in the world.

In fairness to them, from a legal perspective, I understood why the government was appealing the Apple judgement, and I think it was the right decision.
Apple and other MNC's do enjoy a ridiculously low tax rate, but the metrics that the Court used to come up with that figure were nonsense and ignored the fact that many other European members are allowed use similar business practices to attract MNC's to their countries.
It looked like they court had come to a predetermined decision (Apple needed to pay tax.) and they came up with a justification after the fact. And not that the evidence pointed towards this conclusion.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

It took Alan Shatter five counts to get elected when FG had their huge bounce back in 2009. I wonder if this is an indication that the knives will come out for Leo.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Danny Healey Rae being re-elected. And see what his response is.

https://twitter.com/cleomurphy64/status/1226579760568000516?s=19

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

SporkOfTruth posted:

Asking as a stupid American: how many candidates "should" Sinn Fein have run, accounting for the fact that polls didn't seem to have them in the "Oh gently caress we might have a chance" zone until last week?

I think the conventional wisdom is about 5-6 more TD's in certain constituencies where they did well and they might have been the largest party.

That being said, it could have backfired. As they may well have had some media unsavory candidates who could have scuppered it, and they risked splitting the vote in such a way they could have ended up with less.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...


quote:

Today I am ashamed of my country, a vast number of whose voters have intentionally or unwittingly just endorsed a fascist party.

But people didn't vote for FG.
Oh you mean SF are the Fascist party, not the political party that actually has it's roots in Fascist ideology. So you are just a moron. Carry on.


In other news, Kevin "Boxer" Moran tears are delicious.

https://www.thejournal.ie/kevin-boxer-moran-2-5000223-Feb2020/

My constituency of Kildare North is having some interesting results.

Claire Murphy for the SD's has handily been elected, and it looks like the SF candidate will be the next in.

But the other two slots are all over the place. It was looking like Frank O Rourke would get in for FF. Then it turned around to James Lawless for FF (who I went to the Inns with.)
Now it has shifted to the FG candidate, so it's a vicious enough three way fight.
It's a bit sad that the Green Party candidate didn't get in, but maybe next time.

The Question IRL fucked around with this message at 13:22 on Feb 10, 2020

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

I just saw on ISF that Gemma O Doherty is now claiming that Mary Lou McDonald is a sleeper FF agent.

So that is hilarious.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Why is everyone saying that if FF/FG get into power than the Housing Crisis will be over in 18-24 months?

They have had years to fix it and it has just gotten worse. Oh but all of a sudden now they will actually try to fix it.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Failed Imagineer posted:

Who is this "everyone"? The Independent?

People in this thread have been saying it.

Blut posted:


The risk for SF is if they stay out, and an alternative government is formed, this moment may pass. If the Irish economy keeps booming, and the housing crisis is fixed within 18-24 months as is expected, a lot of the new younger, more middle class, SF voters will likely drift back to their more traditional homes in LAB or FG (or else the Greens or SocDems). Polls show most of the new SF voters aren't there for Republican reasons, they're there because of housing.[/b]

And even outside of this thread, I remember a vox pop run before the election where some woman was saying that she thought that if FG had been given some more time then they would have fixed a lot of the problems that people have.

There are people who seem to think that the housing market will sort itself out in time, as opposed to being a problem that has to be tackled.

kustomkarkommando posted:

Talk of technical groups bubbling away

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1227165421570330635?s=19

Get ready for the building Roads and cutting hedges caucus

You joke but the roads and hedges around where I live could do with some maintance.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Shoehead posted:

Listening to this report on FG blocking bills with a minority gov (including environmental bills, legalisation of medical marijuana and banning imports on goods from Israeli occupied Palestine) and I really have to wonder how that general election would have gone if this information was available last week?

Where can one find this report?

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

kustomkarkommando posted:

Just look up "money message", there's been a lot of complaining about it steadily for the last few years and attempts to change the standing orders and even a court case brewing - basically no private members bill that create new public expenditure can be enacted, even after achieving a majority in the Dail, without a signed message from the Taoiseach agreeing to allow the release of funds.

FG has read this extremely literally to block pretty much any legislation coming from the opposition benches as doing anything invovled spending even a small amount of money, like for example the Occupied Territories Bill requires limited expenditure to establish the mechanisms to monitor the new offences so that's new expenditure outside the budget so uh money message needed, were not giving it to you so bill gets stuck in limbo forever

Ah yes I had heard about the “money message” stuff. It’s completely horse poo poo and when it gets to the Supreme Court they will say “you can’t interrupt this stuff in a literal way, because that would give the Taoiseach way too much power in a way not intended by the Constitution. And it would be a breach of the Separation of Powers.”

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Southpaugh posted:

I could see Gary Gannon jumping ship to labour and taking the reins later in his career. Amalgamate them and the SDs, they are treading the same water. Shiny new young fella and, uh, the party of James Connolly.

Nothing depresses me quite like the irish labour party.

What got me is the narrative in the media and from old Labour voters I know who have taken the swing to SF as being "they are just going to this party because they are offering free things. While Labour are being sensible with what they are offering."

And are just wilfully ignoring how bad Labour have been since 2011.

I love this tweet by Leo.

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1227628020921438208?s=19

Sadly it cuts off the last part.
"...and did such a poo poo job that they were not a real opposition. "

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Somebody told me that (allegedly) a lot of the older Labour candidates were originally guys in the IRA or in organized crime and that this was an open secret in the Irish political world. (And it is why Eamon Dunphy made allegations of the like about Ruadhri Quinn in a newspaper article which was subsequently the subject of a huge libel case.)

Has anyone else heard anything about that?

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

kustomkarkommando posted:

Dunphy got caught out for libel against Proinsias De Rosa, not Quinn, who was the leader of Democratic Left and brought them through the merger and was definately in the RA.

That is right, it was De Rosa not Quinn. Tha is for the correction. Also thanks for the rest of your post. It's incredibly interesting.

kustomkarkommando posted:


I think it's easy to forget what a hot garbage fire Ireland was until the late 90s

Ah yes. When most of the sex education for kids in the country in the 90's came not from the schools but from the educational shows they had on Network 2 on Saturday morning after Scratch Saturday.
I think the turning point may have been 1995 when the second divorce referendum passed by the slimmest majority.

Skull Servant posted:

Yeah, I'd want to echo that sentiment. The only significant thing Labour did that I can think of is the equal marriage referendum, but even that wasn't ideal. A high risk scenario in which LGBT people had to argue for their rights to marry in order to pass the buck and not be the government who maybe brought in an unpopular, if morally correct, policy.

Additionally, the negative impact of the decision to take the question of marriage to referendum is being felt by LGBT people all across the world now, with more States following the Irish model of legislating for LGBT rights via the ballot box.

As crappy as the Marriage Equality Referendum may have been for the LGBTQ community, it had to be done through the ballot box. The Constitution of Ireland had to be changed and it can only be changed by Referendum.
If Labour had tried just introducing some legislation for it, it would never have passed.
And even if it did pass, some Loony would have taken a Constitutional challenge against the legislation, and the Supreme Court would have almost assuredly ruled against it.

The Question IRL fucked around with this message at 16:54 on Feb 18, 2020

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

happyhippy posted:

All that talk about having no navy when we double our ships with the ghost ship in a matter of days!
Only a matter of time of outmatching the US navy.

Plus Ghost Ships often have Ghost Sailors (or even better. Ghost Pirates) on board. We can rely on them to sink those Mortal ships.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

I think the picture of Justin Trudeau (doing whiteface) Leo and his partner Matt at Montreal Pride in Canada perfectly sums everything up about him.


https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/taoiseach-leo-varadkar-and-his-partner-join-trudeau-at-the-montreal-pride-parade-36051167.html

You have JT, who is giving a warm, natural looking smile of a man having a good time.
Leopald has the smile of an old man who is forcing himself to look happy because there are cameras drat it and he has to look like he is having a good time.
And then there is Matt. Who has that familiar look of a supportive partner who has been dragged into the limelight and just doesn't can't force himself to look happy because he is that uncomfortable.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

There is something so messed up about the idea of
"The tabloids would have a field day if they knew that your partner spent their disposable income on a collectable card game.
On a recreational hobby that involves socializing with other people.
It's just so weird, and not normal like someone spending all their money on booze or clothes.

Can't have that. If the media find out about it, the party will just have to elect Simon Convey as the party leader. And he already has the Illuminati vote.

Just tell your partner he has to go cold turkey and quit. And to be on the safe side, he should probably burn all his old decks too."

Hopefully with Varadkar going into opposition, maybe they will let Matt play Magic again.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

But how long is the US going to have an anti-Huawei policy?
Like isn't the whole thing mostly being driven by Trump and his bizare "Loves China's authoritarian strongman policies. But hates their competitive business practices."

If there is a new President will the whole thing not go away?

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Failed Imagineer posted:

Even a Sanders administration is going to have to deal with the realpolitik of the post-Soviet US hegemony transitioning to a multipolar global order with China and US in constant tension and an ascendant Global South. Like, President Bernie isnt going to cause Xi to stop spending trillions on Belt and Road projects through Eurasia and Africa, and neo-colonising seaports via predatory development loans (much like the Troika has done for some time now).

There will be many flashpoints in the coming years, and telcoms/satellite internet will be a big one .

Oh I get that the US and China will clash over things over the next few years.

It's just the Huawei thing stuck out as being one of Trump's personal bugbears. And since it was Trump doing it, I assumed he had gotten the information fundamentally wrong or was perusing it for quasi-rascist reasons.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Failed Imagineer posted:

Well, it's not like I've personally opened a Huawei router and microscopically analysed the motherboard to find the backdoors, but I think it's pretty safe to assume that China's strongly motivated to spy and collect all the communications they can.

But then again, they're still trailing well behind the NSA/CIA in that arena. Sure in the last few weeks there was that story about Crypto AG being a CIA cutout, meaning the CIA were capturing almost all encrypted information worldwide between 1970 and at least the late 90s. Extrapolate from that and the Snowden leaks and you'd have to conclude that almost everything is compromised and every wank you ever had is saved in 4k resolution on an underground server in Langley

Wow, that sounds like they must have a pretty big bank of hard drives to store all that information.
Would it be fair to describe that as a spank bank?

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Skull Servant posted:

Irish Sinn Fein.

That's a legitimately odd response from ISF. They've been political for ages now with no real loss. As noted already, they set up a "political party" and were heavily pushing an anti-FF/FG position in the run-up to the election. To abandon that now and claim to be apolitical is nonsense.

I think the thing with ISF is they are starting to realise. "Hang on, we have over a hundred thousand members. We are big enough that someone could go after us for Defamation. "

Like they were making comments about Al Porter being a sex pest when it was an open secret but before he had been charged with anything and so it was technically Defamatory.
When this was pointed out by lawyers like myself and a friend their response was "lol.
We are a meme page, what are they going to do? Sue us?"

Now that it is over a year on and they sell merch, I think people are realizing that yes, they can be sued.

The real test will be if they start cracking down on Conor McGregor stuff.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Arquinsiel posted:

There's a perceived difference between running a facebook group that people post in, and running a twitter account that draws from that. It's not settled law yet, but there is some degree of liability in both cases.

But if something defamatory is posted on the Twitter account (unless it was a comment unique to the Twitter account) it almost certainly is a repost from the Facebook group.

I think that they are going to end up crossing a line.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

I have heard rumours that other schools have had suspected cases with their kids (allegedly one is St. Michael's in D4) but have not closed. Probably out of some misguided notion that it is shameful to have sick children or something.

I don't think the schools should be publicly shamed, if they are being closed it is as a precaution after all, but they should probably be named for public health reasons.

I do agree with ISF. What is up with all these schools with kids going on ski trips for Mid Term?

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Blut posted:

Its not that expensive in the grand scheme of things, its a skill best to learn while youngish, and its much more fun as a group activity. So it does make a lot of sense as a school trip.

But it is a bit bougie yeah, the boom's back baby and all that I guess.

Obviously I think if kids or their parents want to go on ski trips, that is fine. I was brought on a ski trip with my uncle back when I was 14.
It was a cool experience but not my thing.
That being said horses for courses.

I was talking to a TY student at work yesterday and he said his school brought like 40 out of it's 90 TY students on a school ski trip, but that was done by way of a lottery.
I think the notion of schools being well run and funded enough to organize ski trips abroad is a bit of a sign of "Celtic Tiger is back baby!" Since that never happened to my school. And I was in school during the actual Celtic Tiger era.

Anyway the papers are now naming the Glasnevin school that is closed and that Mary Lou's kids go there.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

I came across this article.

It's fascinating seeing a politician's rise and fall.

https://gript.ie/profile-kate-o-connell-fine-gael/

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Oh yeah, it's a hit piece.

But it involves a whole bunch of FG infighting. Basically I can read it as a whole punch of Blueshirts fighting with each other. There are no winners.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Southpaugh posted:


I'll really want to see some good studies saying that all this disruption/shutdown was worthwhile in a years time otherwise it was the media making hay out of nothing as they have dozens of times in the past.

The danger with that is, if all this work now saves us from a disaster, it is very hard to prove something like that. You have evidence to prove a positive, not a negative.

And people will then run with "see nothing happened" as a false equivalence. See how people equate all the work that was done to mitigate the damage from the Millennium Bug with "all that talk and nothing bad happened."

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The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Has Gibbo been deployed to Ireland?

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