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Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

https://twitter.com/LeahButtigieg/status/1223011819901591552?s=20

These people are unwell.

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Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

goethe.cx posted:

Ok I’m telling everyone I support Biden now

Finally their campaign does something relatable

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.


She could just hire a trans person for the job if she's that concerned about it?

Also trans people are a fairly diverse community. If your trans-identifying interviewer is a random shitlib there to rubber-stamp your appointee as having some sort of official trans person approval that's not going to help anybody.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Warren is an absolute idiot who panics when she's put on the spot, her and her team come up with these "plans" that are completely asinine and please nobody except the dumbest of libs, and there are honestly people who think she could go up against Trump. He would eat her alive.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

The replies to that tweet are fun; it's one-half the left making GBS threads on her for pandering half-measures and one-half chuds calling trans people a fad and saying that this is the first step to Warren opening gulags just like Bernie is planning to do (?? I guess this is the O'Keefe video thing ??). Once again Warren figured out how to upset everybody except for a handful of overpaid former Hillary staffers.

MSDOS KAPITAL posted:

imagine if the police were about to come to your house and arrest you for robbing a convenience store but luckily for you before you left the store you grabbed the hdd with the footage of the robbery on it and they got no tangible evidence to pin the robbery on you

then when the cops show up you sit them down in front of your computer and show them the footage and give them a copy and triumphantly shout "ha!" as though you were the master of all things

that's elizabeth warren and her campaign, y'all

The woman literally created a website to compile every negative rumor about her in one place. She shoots herself in the foot so often it's almost surreal. I'm expecting her to rip off a mask at some point and show that she's actually been Andy Kaufman this whole time.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Groovelord Neato posted:

National polls are mostly meaningless in a primary. Clinton was leading Obama nationally by 8.5 at this point.

Democratic Hawks Declare War on Bernie Sanders
Maybe they'll win one for a change.


https://newrepublic.com/article/156374/democratic-hawks-declare-war-bernie-sanders

quote:

He later clarified, sort of, saying that there is one, but that it is “semi-disorganized” and largely ineffective.

Hey someone in the establishment was right for once!

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

To think just a few months ago a pollster had to issue an apology because they showed Bernie winning, and now they're all doing it! Shameless.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

The difference here being that if the polls are right Bernie is definitely winning Iowa.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

oxsnard posted:

reminder that 70% of millenials (who at the oldest are now pushing 40!!) said they would vote for a socialist

https://www.axios.com/millennials-vote-socialism-capitalism-decline-60c8a6aa-5353-45c4-9191-2de1808dc661.html

Can confirm, am a Millennial, am fuckin' old, and am voting to destroy capitalism.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

UP AND ADAM posted:

The paradox of low-paying jobs being more onerous and restrictive than higher paying jobs where you can put in maybe few hours of work per week and just find ways to kill boredom for the rest of your workday is pretty universally felt by me and my friends. It's so laughable and obvious that I can't believe there's still the myth of the deserving wealthy person.

Lol yeah I sit on my phone all day posting while making more money than I ever have, and then I think back to getting paid half as much to walk around delivering mail for ten hours a day in the pouring rain.

This system is garbage and it needs to be torn down and rebuilt from the ground up.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

fridgraidr posted:

It’s Bernie, Joe, and Liz in the next debate. Adding a bloomer should help Bernie more than hurt him.

Butt is almost definitely getting a couple delegates and Klob might actually swing a couple as well if she's lucky in some districts. Yang and Steyer are potentially out.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

fridgraidr posted:

But will they clear the polling threshold in Nevada?

No but it's polls OR get a delegate to qualify for the debate. Butt will probably do well enough in Iowa to keep him in the debates through Super Tuesday.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

fridgraidr posted:

Righto, I missed that “or”

Yeah the "or" is important because that's the distinction that makes it clear this is set up to try to keep Butt in and to try to let Bloomberg on the stage. If it was an "and" we'd be down to three candidates on the stage.

They probably want to lower the requirements even further but then they run the risk of too many centrists talking over each other while Bernie dunks on them.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

CubanMissile posted:

Did the FEC deadline already pass?

Should be midnight EST

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

They're so goddamn stupid they don't even realize that a rule change like that would guarantee an overwhelming Bernie victory.

Bernie basically has the Keystone Kops plotting against him.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

I just read the politico article and it sounds like the DNC people pushing this are actually looking for a rules reversion in 2024 and think a Bernie nomination would be enough to get the DNC to restore the superdelegates to full power.

So they're hoping for something like: a Bernie nom leading to a Bernie general loss to Trump, at which point they go "see?? Told you the proles would gently caress it up!" and then they get their previous status back for 2024 now that the left is suitably cowed.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Pizza is the most communist food. It comes evenly divided to be distributed as equally as possible among the people.

From each according to their ability to pay for pizza, to each according to their need for pizza

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Every time Hillary says something about Bernie he goes up in the polls. If she had any self-awareness I'd almost think she was trying to help him.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Gyges posted:

Warren's brand is helped almost as much as Bernie's by being able to tee off on an rear end in a top hat billionaire. Steyer just isn't cutting it since his shtick seems to be being just a moment or two away from getting it, giving his money away, and joining the people

Yeah Steyer is pretty good at coming across as earnest in his desire to make positive change. He's still a billionaire so I know he's lying but he definitely doesn't come across as the kind of soulless ghoul that Bloomberg does.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

https://twitter.com/RollingStone/status/1223331130050596864?s=20

quote:

Soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines have donated a total of $185,625 to Sen. Sanders’ 2020 campaign. By comparison, they have given $113,012 to Trump, $80,250 to Pete Buttigieg, $64,604 to Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and a relatively paltry $33,045 to former Vice President Joe Biden, according to Doug Weber, a senior researcher at the Center for Responsive Politics.

For every candidate in the 2020 race, the CRP maintains a list of the 20 companies or institutions whose employees have given the most money to his or her campaign. Remarkably, the U.S. Army, the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Air Force, the Department of Defense, and the Department of Veterans Affairs all separately appear on Sanders’ list, comprising 5 of his top 20. The largest service branch, the U.S. Army, comes in at number 11, with $65,395 in total donations. That’s just behind Walmart, whose employees gave $69,523.

Shocking news: enlisted people who are the first to die in foreign wars to make rich men even richer are fans of Bernie.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Vox Nihili posted:

Everyone looks a bit low. Bernie is better off but not exactly swimming in dough. I'm hoping his January numbers are impressive; we goons are certainly doing our part.

They all dumped as much cash as they could since it's make or break time. But if Bernie needs more then we need to do our paypig duty.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Mahoning posted:

Not a single Bernie oppo dump has lasted more than a day or so.

Oddly enough I think the Joe Rogan broohaha actually lasted the longest. Maybe 3 days or so?

Bernie is immune to all this poo poo. I honestly don’t know, if one of the other campaigns was paying me a bunch of money to help them win, what I would actually tell them to do.

Warren had a pretty clear path to victory. It was to steal Bernie's ideas, write some position papers, and push the idea that she has a plan to pass stuff, implicitly suggesting that Bernie doesn't. It would have worked but she decided to hire some Clinton people and they convinced her the left was locked in and it was time to triangulate. And she collapsed. I'm just glad she was dumb enough to start on it as early as she did.

I guess my advice to any of the campaigns would be to go back in time to January 2019 and actually promise that you'll do the things people want instead of tut-tutting and insisting that people who want to not die in the street need to be a little more realistic.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Well attacking Bernie for saying the Vietnam War was bad turned out to be a dud, so expect them to go all-in on this Tlaib thing over the weekend. Naturally no one who isn't terminally online will even hear about it and it's probably going to just get Bernie a bunch of donations but that hasn't stopped the libs before.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

I posted this today:

https://twitter.com/RollingStone/status/1223331130050596864?s=20

Bernie has the most credibility on foreign policy and war at this point. He has support from the troops and from people opposed to war in general (which is most of the Dem base at this point), and Iowa Dems are not hardcore HOORAH ARE TROOPS types in the first place. Beyond that here's the major papers currently running with the "Bernie criticized the Vietnam War!!!1!1!" story: The Daily Caller, The Washington Examiner, The National Review, and The Washington Free Beacon. This story isn't even getting in front of Dems to begin with, it's being used to rile up chuds about those commie pinkos on the left.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

You know how this could hurt Bernie? If Bernie were a wishy-washy candidate who crumbled at the first sign of criticism and started backtracking and apologizing. But he isn't. You come at him with this and he's just going to pivot to talking about war being an atrocity and how dumping trillions into killing people abroad while our infrastructure crumbles at home etc etc etc. This attack just lets him go right into his stump speech and his opponents aren't going to pick it up because they know it would just be pointing out one of Bernie's strengths and highlighting their own weaknesses, which is the opposite of what they'll want to do. And if the other Dems aren't laying into him with it, it's going to wither away just like the latest O'Keefe video.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.


quote:

The issue of Biden’s electability was the driving force behind the decision and a key concern of the union’s membership, which was randomly surveyed by phone in an “extensive poll” conducted by a professional pollster ATU hired, Costa said.

“The numbers came back very strong for Joe,” Costa said, declining to discuss details of the “internal” survey. “Not only did people support him, but we asked who would be best to beat Trump, and he was overwhelmingly seen as the best to do it.“

Kind of sounds like the WFP all over again. "We randomly conducted a secret poll and... hmm, the numbers? Don't worry about it."

And I vaguely recall Biden holding a big union rally several months back (feels like years ago) and the only people who showed up were presidents and other top brass. The membership knows who their candidate is.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Groovelord Neato posted:

Warren became a Democrat because she realized the GOP went totally insane and the Democrats were the more responsible capitalists.

She says that but I think it's as likely that she was worried about being professionally or personally ostracized for being a Republican in MA. Some people like playing the outsider but Warren very clearly does not. Her switching parties right when the Dems were ascendant and when she moved somewhere that was heavily Dem fits with that.

But she definitely wasn't playing the long game and setting up for her Senate run a decade plus later. If we've learned anything about Warren over the past year it's that she lacks any foresight whatsoever.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Washington state poll:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223760585684373509?s=20

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

If they really did somehow leave Pete's name out they'll scuttle the whole thing and we'll never see it.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

The real takeaway here is how they're willing to bend over backwards to keep from upsetting the centrists when you know that a poll that had errors unfavorable to Bernie would get released as normal with an asterisk/editor's note at best.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Concerned Citizen posted:

i mean, who cares? maybe they're a buttigieg organizer in iowa, so what? as long as they're not being paid to post on this forum (which would be very different from any organizer job i know of, i don't think anyone is paid to post on this dumb forum) then they're just some buttigieg supporter who managed to swing a paid position with the campaign. i posted the bernie application months ago and a number of people said they applied - if any of them got hired, are they not allowed to post on the forum anymore?

if they ARE a paid buttigieg organizer, there's few enough of them that i wouldn't expect them to risk getting doxed by revealing their employer.

I do think people should be up front about who they're supporting. For example knowing that someone supports Pete gives me a clear indicator of just how huge a racist they probably are and that seems like useful info to have in a discussion.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

PepsiOverCoke posted:

I have a vested interest in making sure the process goes well here and things are fair. I don't buy into all the hair pulling and hand wringing that go on in this thread.

I mean poo poo, as soon as the story came out people assumed it was some kind of CIA Op. That isn't normal, especially when all the citations are tweets.

Do we have any evidence that it went to campaigns first and THEN the DMR pulled it, or is it the DMR immediately went into damage control mode, maybe even over reacting, and pulled the poll?

It seems to be the latter more than the former from what we're seeing here.

One person made a joke about the CIA

And Lis Smith, who works on the campaign, whose tweets are on this page, says the campaign brought up the irregularities to DMR and CNN, and it was after the campaign complained that the poll got pulled. Which lends credence to the argument that the poll was bad for Pete and they've been fighting behind the scenes to bury it with this as their excuse.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Concerned Citizen posted:

because people still claim that there were rigged coin tosses in 2016

Just want to quickly note that the fact that we EVER let political decisions come down to coin tosses or drawing straws or anything else along those lines is proof that the entire system needs to be torn down. Also that this literally is a game to the people in power.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Vox Nihili posted:

Civiqs Iowa results over time, with movement:



Based on this chart, Bernie is the only candidate people feel any conviction for. Bernie's is the only bar on that list that doesn't bleed support once he has it; people who come to Bernie become locked in and dedicated. Every other bar has lost a bunch of people at one point or another but the Bernie bar has steadily grown.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Screencap for people like me who missed seeing John Kerry using naughty words live:

https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1224089099226755073?s=20

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:

538's Iowa page gives their average standings as
Sanders 22.2%
Biden 21.4%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/

but if you do a simple average of the last 10 polls its
Sanders 23.8
Biden 18.7

I know they do some wacky poo poo to adjust for bias or whatever but this seems way off (will be very funny when Bernie wins)

538 weights them based on the pollster's ranking, and they also factor in endorsements, highest office achieved, fundraising, regional advantages, etc.

Once you factor that all in their model just shrugs at you and says "I dunno, probably one of these two guys??" Presumably it will get more accurate through the primary as real voting data is fed into it, but there's no way to know right now if their model is any good or not.

Edit: oh I'm mixing up their model and poll averages, which are two separate pages on their site for some reason. Yeah with the page you linked it's probably just the arbitrary pollster ranking coming into play.

Wicked Them Beats fucked around with this message at 00:30 on Feb 3, 2020

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Djarum posted:

I will give Warren the benefit of the doubt on the Native American thing. She very well could have been convinced of her heritage. Until the advent of DNA testing most people took what they were told by close family as the truth.

Everything else, yeah she has been lying. I will likely blame her campaign staff more than anything. I am thinking that she does not have great staff especially evidenced by the pathetic stunts she has been pulling. She really should know better and should be better. It will cost her the nomination.

Since actual Cherokee people were telling her she was full of poo poo as early as 2012 and she responded by calling them GOP operatives, I would suggest the benefit of the doubt should not be extended.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uegqTj3SHO4

"My pah-paw had high cheekbones like all of the indians do"

-Elizabeth Warren, definitely not a loving racist

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

https://twitter.com/philosophrob/status/1224014468407009280?s=20

Really want to know what that $75 was for.

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Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Really looking forward to people remembering there's voting happening and Kramering into the thread to remind everyone about the Jeremy Corbyn guy and how people were hopeful for him, remember that, huh? Do ya?

And double looking forward to the indignant huffing when those same posters get told that the two elections have no material circumstances in common unless it turns out Iowans have strong opinions on Brexit.

TulliusCicero posted:

Biden's brain is s melting popsicle :psyduck:

What the gently caress does that even mean?

Girls are crazy and PMS amirite fellas?!?!

He's trying to talk about the difficulty of raising young girls transitioning into teenagers but he's Biden and doesn't think of women as people so he ends up talking about it in the cringiest way possible.

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