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I echo what others said about this poll probably being really bad for Mayo Pete. It’s only a matter of time before his voters consolidate behind Biden, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that swing had already begun.
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Feb 2, 2020 05:51
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Everyone is worrying about the wrong thing. Bernie will win tomorrow. Between his poll numbers, ground game, and nature of caucuses, he is perfectly positioned. Bernie will also win NH. The problem is what comes after that - Mayo Pete and Klobs aren't really equipped to go to NV, SC, and then super Tuesday, and after Bernie wins the first two contests there will be enormous pressure for the moderate wing of the party to coalesce behind a single candidate. If Biden picks up a win in SC, then you have a battle on your hands. It's probably better for Bernie to win by smaller margins in these first 3 contests to give everyone a reason to go into Super Tuesday at full swing.
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Feb 2, 2020 22:26
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Lustful Man Hugs posted:That would mean a Trump victory followed by a Sanders victory. It would probably be the most significant realignment of our political era. The realignment already happened with Trump. Other than some centrist democrats in solid blue states sitting out 2020, I don't think much changes from 2016.
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Feb 3, 2020 00:22
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As there are no exit polls, when will we get results?
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Feb 3, 2020 20:03
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theflyingorc posted:I know that they're dumb early contests, but I'm enjoying that so far there has been right next to 0 support for Biden And that the Ukraine scandal has had nothing to do with it. Which makes Trump's scheme look even more silly, and forced some uncomfortable votes out of a few GOP senators for nothing.
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Feb 3, 2020 21:47
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Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:Numbers like will completely wipe out any wins Sanders has in Scotland or France or Georgia. Well this also seems to be a retirement community in Port Nowhere Florida. This location is probably as bad as it gets for Sanders.
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Feb 3, 2020 22:27
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Bernie seems to have won the Drake precinct.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:06
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John Wick of Dogs posted:Really hard to read the mood of the thread as to how it's going Because it’s impossible to know how any candidates are doing (other than the fact that Biden is getting wrecked).
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Feb 4, 2020 03:09
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FlamingLiberal posted:Kind of hard to argue that when he got creamed in the popular vote too I wouldn’t be giving money to Pete as a donor. He probably crashes and burns once we hit South Carolina. The guy who did really well with rural white voters is going to see a lot of reticence from donors. Warren is more likely to be the fall back candidate. For now they probably stick with Joe through Super Tuesday and then reevaluate.
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Feb 5, 2020 16:11
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There is an army of unqualified nazi judges with lifetime appointments that say otherwise. Turns out the real world is more complicated than a computer game.
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Feb 5, 2020 17:19
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empty whippet box posted:Yep, we are. gently caress anyone and everyone who isn't Bernie Sanders, I don't do this 'lesser of two evils' poo poo anymore. People who enable Trump winning by staying home are worse than Trump voters. At least they are getting the outcome they want.
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Feb 5, 2020 17:21
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Gripweed posted:Those nazi judges are in there because of the lesser of two evils scheme. We tried doing lesser of two evils in 2016, and guess what, it didn't work. We got big evil anyway. So no more. I'm done. I'm not wasting time trying to make lesser of two evils happen when half the time it doesn't even work. Bernie or Bust. Hillary being bad doesn't mean Bernie would win. This is a pretty right win country, and as we saw in the Iowa caucus, ratfuck or not, Bernie doesn't have the mass appeal we want him to have.
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Feb 5, 2020 17:23
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Trabisnikof posted:Listen, regardless of if you like them or not, they’re needed to win so you just have to suck it up and work to nominate Bernie. For the sake of beating Trump. It’s not fair but neither is politics. I'm rooting for Bernie, but Bernie or Bust is worse than being a MAGA chud. RBG is staying alive out of pure spite at the moment, but she is not hanging on until November 2024. Heck, I'd go for a Bloomberg/Booker ticket if that's the alternative.
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Feb 5, 2020 17:28
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Cicero posted:Bernie won the popular vote, which demonstrates his lack of mass appeal? With what, 28% of the vote?
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Feb 5, 2020 17:30
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Nairbo posted:In a field of 7 candidates? Yeah that tends to happen The centrist lane pulled in more than half the vote.
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Feb 5, 2020 17:35
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RazzleDazzleHour posted:The other issue with a Hillary presidency is that it pushes us farther away from the eventual goal, which is another candidate who is willing to try what Bernie wants to accomplish. Eight years of Hillary, then probably eight years of whatever monster the Republicans manage to develop after that puts us sixteen years out from any of our goals. Sixteen years before someone who genuinely takes climate change seriously, sixteen years before the whole country gets access to Medicare. Not to mention all the absolutely terrible new things we get out of eight years of Hillary, who doesn't give a gently caress about anything but being a cog in the political machine, and then whatever the Republicans manage to come up with. Trump has a high chance of losing re-election. I voted for Hillary because it was "the right thing to do" but she was still a monster Nominating judges alone puts you far closer to your goal than avoiding 8 years of Hillary. Good luck getting anything through the courts. Heck, after this year, you probably have a 6-3 Supreme Court, so 1 of the ghouls dying on a Democrats watch won't even be enough. Groovelord Neato posted:I hope it's true the GOP is trying to get their people to vote for Sanders in the SC primary because there's nothing funnier than them being as dumb as the Clinton camp wanting Trump to win the primary.
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Feb 5, 2020 18:14
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Bushido Brown posted:Frankly, I also think we are in a much better position with respect to state and local elections with Trump in office for four more years than we would be under Former Mayor Peter Butt or Biden. Do you think 4 more years of Trump is going to make the Democrats want to shift to the left? The lesson from a 2020 loss will be that the party is too left wing to capture a majority of Americans if 46%+ of voters pick Trump twice in a row. The 2024 Democratic primaries will probably include Kasich and Charlie Dent. You talk about 4 more years of Trump as if its going to guarantee a swing in the opposite direction. I remember when a lot of people including Chapo and the young turk guys were saying the same thing - and where did that get us? 4 years of Trump is probably leading to 4 more years of Trump, which could very likely lead into 4 more years of a Trump 2.0.
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Feb 5, 2020 18:24
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Groovelord Neato posted:Trump got a slightly smaller share of the vote than Romney but any Republican candidate gets about the same amount within a small range. Hillary's vote total probably tanks if people don't have to hold their nose and vote for her because the alternative is a "non-threatening" sounding guy like Kasich or Rubio.
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Feb 5, 2020 18:26
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oxsnard posted:old black voters in the south, yes. Young PoC and latinos are going Bernie That was mostly true in 2016 as well.
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Feb 5, 2020 19:13
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I do think the Iowa issue is pure incompetence. If there was malicious intent, they would have released results showing Pete won early, even if they turned out to be wrong a week later (like what happened Santorum). Even if Bernie won, announcing that quickly would have put pressure on the centrists to consolidate. All the Iowa Democrats achieved is making sure that this was probably the last Iowa Caucus (at least for Democrats). Denying Bernie the win makes it more likely his voters turn out in greater numbers next time, instead of looking at the polls and being comfortable. By the time NH is done, the establishment could have been 10 days in to their unite behind a single person to take on Bernie plan. What happened in Iowa doesn't work in anyone's favor.
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Feb 5, 2020 19:57
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One thing I found strange about Iowa was that Pete is doing well in the rural areas. I'd figure his base would be the wealthier suburbanites, while Bernie cleans up in the rural working class areas. Pete taking a ton of money from the Upper West Side, and winning among rural Iowans is just weird.
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Feb 5, 2020 20:16
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SgtSteel91 posted:My Dad, for some reason, is now behind Bloomberg because "he made his billions not from real estate or shady deals but creating knowledge and transforming data sharing. He revolutionized the data industry. And he has very smart people around him. The best of the best." That reminds me of 2016 when the guy who worked at the grocery store I used to go to told me how much he liked Trump, how smart he was at business, and that he had his vote (this was around September too, when the full extent of Trump's ghoulishness was evident). This guy was a devout-Muslim immigrant from west-Africa.
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Feb 5, 2020 20:50
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Kill Bristol posted:I don't agree with this second one actually. I think Bernie wins by such a margin as to make convention fuckery nonviable, or not at all. The only way to make convention fuckery nonviable is to cross the delegate threshold - which probably doesn't happen as long as Warren is splitting the vote, and one of the centrists do well in each state.
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Feb 5, 2020 21:38
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Nail Rat posted:If it's not a conspiracy, it's absolute incompetence of the highest order. Yeah, if you were trying to hide away Bernie votes, you wouldn’t allocate them to Deval Patrick. These guys are just really bad at their jobs, as they have shown repeatedly.
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Feb 5, 2020 22:39
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Office Pig posted:Sure you would. Bullshit results with nonsense candidates have happened before with this exact kind of scenario in other countries, America isn't going to be special here. After you have already screwed up this badly and everyone is carefully scrutinizing the drip of information you are releasing, you wouldn’t put votes in Patrick’s column if you were trying to be shady. Most people forgot he had even entered the race. At least give it to Gabbard or something.
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Feb 5, 2020 22:47
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The fact that things are screwed up to the point that no one will take them seriously is fine. It means the first real results of the primary season will be NH - a normal primary where Bernie can post a double digit win.
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Feb 5, 2020 23:06
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Eminai posted:If the alternate story is "Bernie wins glorious victory, Warren in second" then the current story is much better for Pete. If Bernie won, Pete would be second, and still be able to claim that he is the centrist of choice, and that they should consolidate around him.
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Feb 5, 2020 23:46
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Uglycat posted:This is good. The DNC might maybe actually be clever enough to see the writing on the wall (unfortunately they won't because the billionaire money that runs the DNC is given by people that WON'T see the writing on the wall, because Bernie is worse for them than Trump) It’s not just the BIG money Democrats who would prefer Trump to Bernie. A lot of the comfortable Upper West Side types would much rather show up at a climate change march in 2022 to protest Trump than live under a Bernie presidency. Unfortunately there are a lot of those Democrats in/around most large metropolitan areas.
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Feb 9, 2020 22:30
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Cpt_Obvious posted:In a Sanders vs Trump general, my guess is that turnout is going to be surprisingly low as typical D's and R's sit out, and Bernie wins in a landslide. Trump’s turnout will likely be similar to 2016. There is absolutely nothing to suggest enthusiasm is low amongst his voters or that he has lost any support. Bernie has the unenviable position of having to hope that doing the right thing overcomes greed, and in this country you have to expect greed will win. There are tons of people who hate Trump, but aren’t going to take a financial hit (real or perceived) to get him out of office.
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Feb 10, 2020 04:54
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Weird BIAS posted:Benzo addiction, complicated by his all beef diet. Benzo addiction that he didn’t want to treat like a normal person, so he went to Russia because every US doctor refused the procedure he wanted (being put in a medically induced coma, so he could “fast-forward” through the withdrawal process). Now he is handicapped for life and can’t speak. And this is the guy that the alt-right turn to for guidance on self-improvement...
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Feb 11, 2020 03:42
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spouse posted:Do you have a source for that? I believe the russia medicine thing, I've seen stories on that... but the rest of it... what the gently caress? It was on the r/news subreddit. Can’t find the link but his daughter made a video about how the American doctors “lacked the guts” to give him proper treatment and wanted to pump him full of meds. Now he has neurological damage, can’t speak, and may never speak again. Apparently the medically induced coma is only supposed to be used for a few hours, but the Russian docs had him under for like a week. It made for some funny reading browsing the Peterson subreddit, with all his little cultists upset that someone would judge and criticize his moral failings without understanding his personal circumstances and difficulties.
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Feb 11, 2020 04:26
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We usually get exit polls 30 minutes before polls close? At least we won’t have to wait until the middle of the night to know how the race goes. I’m fairly calm about the result today. Also, being a a primary means minimal fuckery going on. Super Tuesday is going to be the real nerve wracking day.
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Feb 11, 2020 17:24
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SchrodingersCat posted:But there are some you can bring to your side with dialogue. That minuscule number are not worth the hugely disproportionate time and effort it would take.
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Feb 11, 2020 20:35
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kidkissinger posted:he's hosed if he's lost krugman It is just such a bizarre thing to bring up in the primary. Who is the constituency for this? Republicans stopped pretending to care about this back in 2016, so you aren't winning any of them over.
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Feb 11, 2020 20:39
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Cpt_Obvious posted:So will we not know anything till 8? I’m losing my mind trying not to lose my mind. Assuming Bernie is going to win by 5+ points, the race should be called by 8. I think we will get exit polls around 6, which might give us some clues into what to expect.
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Feb 11, 2020 21:07
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First exit polls in 5 minutes. From what I remember of this 4 years ago, these are more broad/general questions that aren't as valuable for predicting where things will go (I guess they were a little more predictive in a 2 person race).
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Feb 11, 2020 22:55
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theflyingorc posted:I'm pretty sure she knows that she's toast and that this won't happen, she's just sticking around for now on the off chance that it comes out that Bernie, Biden, and Butt all ran an at-home dog molesting business. I'm not even sure that would hurt Butt in this election.
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Feb 11, 2020 22:55
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CelestialScribe posted:She knows she's lost, she's staying in so she can pledge any delegates she gets for Bernie. That kind of deal-making doesn't sound very Bernie-like, and Warren holds more allegiance to the establishment than to Bernie. He would probably prefer her to drop out ASAP and collect her delegates directly from the voters.
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Feb 11, 2020 22:57
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Gyges posted:Aside from it only being 5pm, what was the turnout for that demo in 2016 and 2008? 19% https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/nh/dem
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Feb 11, 2020 23:41
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kidkissinger posted:I'm just realizing, Buttigieg is the millennial candidate and the zoomers are making hateful memes about him. Our generation is already so loving uncool. Butt is too old to be a millennial.
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Feb 12, 2020 00:52
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