Dem Presidential Primary 2020: Bernie dropped out, all hail nominee Biden

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Dem Presidential Primary 2020: Bernie dropped out, all hail nominee Biden

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Yang is arguing for eminent domain.

# ¿ Jan 31, 2020 05:20

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# ¿ May 22, 2024 04:36

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

2 of the past 8 IA caucuses have had results different than polling. (2012 R & 2004 D).

# ¿ Feb 1, 2020 22:04

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Nate Silver posted:

Obviously Bloomberg could see his #'s keep growing, or they could shrink, but the scenario where he stalls out at ~16%, enough to make Biden's fall much worse and to blunt momentum for Buttigieg, but without coming particularly close to Sanders, is a really good one for Bernie.

Bloomberg's entry might have just handed Sanders the nomination.

# ¿ Feb 19, 2020 21:51

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Nate Silver posted:

How good the night truly is for Sanders actually probably rests more on the performance of the other candidates. If several collect hundreds of delegates, it could set us on a collision course for a contested convention. But on the other hand, if the non-Sanders vote is diffused among enough other candidates, it is also possible that Sanders is the only candidate who consistently clears 15 percent everywhere. In that case, Sanders could grab the lion�s share of Super Tuesday delegates � thus putting himself in a dominating position to claim the nomination.

~Current 538 Super Tuesday delegate projections:
Sanders - 600
Biden - 300
Bloomberg - 200
Warren - 100
Buttigieg/Klobuchar - 100

~ Current Overall 538 Dem nominee delegate projections:
Sanders - 1800
Biden - 1000
Bloomberg - 700
Warren - 200
Buttigieg - 200
Klobuchar - 70

# ¿ Feb 26, 2020 22:01

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

WampaLord posted:

There's no way in hell Mike Bloomberg is getting anywhere close to 700 delegates

Nate Silver posted:

In the seven Southern states that will vote on Tuesday, however, Sanders is in for more of a fight. This is where former Vice President Joe Biden or former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg could notch some wins. In fact, Alabama is one of the few states where our model does not see Sanders as the front-runner; instead, Biden has a 3 in 5 chance to carry it. And Tennessee is a pure toss-up, as our model gives Sanders and Biden each a 2 in 5 chance. Oklahoma is also a tight three-way race: Our model says Sanders has a 1 in 3 chance, while Biden and Bloomberg each has a 3 in 10 chance. In Arkansas, North Carolina and Virginia, Sanders is a bit further ahead, but his chances are still less than 50 percent � meaning our model thinks it�s more likely that someone other than Sanders wins these states than that Sanders does. In Arkansas, Bloomberg is the most likely to be that �someone,� while in North Carolina and Virginia it�s Biden.

The Southern state where Sanders has the best odds (though they�re still just a smidge better than 1 in 2) is Texas � perhaps fittingly, since it arguably has more in common with the West than the South. Most notably, Texas is the only Southern Super Tuesday state with a sizable number of Latino voters, who overwhelmingly supported Sanders in Nevada. Most other Southern Super Tuesday states have bigger black populations, and black voters are generally split between Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg. (Note: black and Latino voters in different parts of the country didn�t all vote in lockstep in the 2016 Democratic primary � we�ll see on Tuesday whether similar patterns emerge.)

# ¿ Feb 26, 2020 23:54

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

WampaLord posted:

Okay, that's not an argument, that's just quoting more of that same bad projection at me.

Mike Bloomberg's polling is not going to translate into that many delegates.

This is silly

200 delegates on Super Tuesday, 500 thereafter, give or take candidates dropping out leading to a contested convention (50/50). About ~$50 million in campaign spending per projected delegate.

drawkcab si eman ym fucked around with this message at 00:16 on Feb 27, 2020

# ¿ Feb 27, 2020 00:08

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/1232782974619463680

Hope this is indicative of a lot of the Midwest.

Trump is looking like a decent favorite in Wisconsin & as long as they hold on to NE-1 they get to 270. Don't be a surprised if a non-Biden Dem ticket loses PA. MI is probably Dem but Trump could make up for that w/ a win in NH which was close in 2016.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2020 00:33

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Grape posted:

NH isn't going Trump in an election where he is losing MI and PA lol.
Seriously what is this post.

He now has the incumbency advantage in a state where he only lost to Clinton by 2.7k votes & Washington Times reported 5k out-of-state voters may have double-voted. If he is only 1.5 pts outside the margin of error in Eerie County, PA 9 months out from the election against Sanders then the state is a toss-up which might be decided by the slimmest of margins. His ceiling is arguably higher.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2020 01:05

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Nate Silver posted:

But the most important mechanism is a polling bounce. That is, after you win a state, it tends to produce favorable media coverage and improve voter confidence in your chances, usually producing a rise in the polls. The model does not necessarily expect South Carolina bounces to be especially large; South Carolina doesn�t receive nearly as much media coverage as Iowa or New Hampshire. But even a modest bounce for Biden could make a fairly big difference in the overall picture of the race. And an emphatic Biden win in South Carolina would leave open the possibility of a bigger bounce.

An emphatic Biden win on Saturday could lead to a Super Tuesday result of:

Sanders - 600
Biden - 400
Bloomberg - 200
Warren - 150
Buttigieg - 100
Klobuchar - 50

Nate Silver posted:

But you can also see how momentum could start to turn against Sanders. By �momentum,� I don�t mean something ineffable, but rather the shifts in the polls that could occur as the result of Super Tuesday, as well as decisions by other candidates to stay in the race or drop out.1
In the scenario above � after a big South Carolina win � Biden would be the plurality favorite in every Southern state on Super Tuesday, namely: Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma and Arkansas. While Sanders would remain the favorite in every non-Southern state2 except Minnesota3 including � critically � California, where he has a huge polling lead and where 415 pledged delegates are at stake.

But even if Sanders racks up big margins in California, this isn�t a great outcome for him from a delegate standpoint. He�d only be about 150 delegates ahead of Biden out of a total of 3,979 pledged delegates eventually to be awarded.

And from a narrative standpoint � and the polling bounce that results from it � it could be fairly bad for him. Sanders might not get very many wins in the Eastern and Central time zone states that the media will cover heavily early in the evening. And the wins Sanders would get would mostly be in white, liberal states where he was expected to win � until California reports its results, but that creates its own problems for Sanders.

What�s wrong with California? Well, nothing, nothing at all. But California takes a long time � days and sometimes even weeks! � to count its votes since mail ballots there only need to be postmarked by Election Day. Moreover, those late returns often shift the margins toward candidates such as Sanders who do well among younger voters, since younger voters are typically slower to send in their ballots. Thus, the Super Tuesday media narrative could already be written by the time California reports reliable results, and the initial returns in California might underestimate Sanders�s eventual vote share there.

Moreover, in this scenario, commentators could rightly point out that Biden and Bloomberg had more combined delegates (630) than Sanders (578). Furthermore, the broader moderate lane � Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar � would have more combined delegates (766) than Sanders and Warren (726). That could give credence to the theory that the majority of Democrats did not want a nominee as progressive as Sanders.

Furthermore, those theories about �lanes� could finally be put to the test because other candidates might finally drop out after Super Tuesday. In this scenario, Biden would be a rather clear No. 2 to Sanders and nobody apart from Sanders and Biden would have an obviously viable path to the nomination. So Biden could gain further ground from Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters joining his camp if those candidates quit the race.

What�s more, the rest of the March calendar contains a lot of states that look pretty decent for Biden (Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Mississippi) or at least highly competitive between he and Sanders (Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona). You�d still probably rather be Sanders than Biden. But it would turn the nomination into a highly competitive race.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2020 19:37

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

twice burned ice posted:

I see you've managed to pull numbers from the only source shitter than the Washington Times -- your rear end

Nate Silver posted:

Average number of delegates candidates win (or have won) in each state based on an average of 4,100 simulations of the FiveThirtyEight primary model as of Feb. 26 at 2 p.m.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2020 19:55

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Spiffster posted:

To be honest because of how seemingly hostile the states polling seems to be I will be happy with a Bernie performance in S.C of at least >15% to net him some delegates and to keep it from being a shut out.

That being said Do we have any South Carolina goons that can give some insight? Genuinely curious as to what they are seeing out there from friends, family, and what not.

Not from South Carolina but the Clyburn-Biden endorsement & Bernie giving his NV caucus-win speech from El Paso, TX for demographic reasons seem to be the overarching themes of why we are probably headed to a brokered convention.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2020 20:37

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

spouse posted:

? wat

Skipped South Carolina for a demographically-friendly Super Tuesday state. While his Nevada win pulled together a broad coalition of demos, his strength out West isn't translating to the Southern states (Nate explained this in a previous post).

# ¿ Feb 27, 2020 20:59

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Rotten Red Rod posted:

Isn't he in SC doing rallies right now, today?

Edit: and tomorrow

Biden is winning South Carolina by 10+ & Warren might be the VP nominee. Silver has him @ 94% to win the state that has been his firewall since his announcement.

Plus the model now shows Sanders on track for 1600 delegates while Biden is projected @ 1200.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2020 21:14

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

WampaLord posted:

That's his entire gimmick, he just regurgitates Nate's model like it's gospel.

Nate's model is simply that, a model. It has a bunch of guesses built into it, many of which are going to be wrong.

It's constantly evolving. No one said data science was easy.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2020 21:29

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

empty whippet box posted:

Weird how the Dow is crashing yet nothing seems to be changing for me in any way, it's almost as if it only matters to rich people.

I realized that in theory I could profit from the stock market but I have too much student-loan debt/need rich parents and that I'm probably just better off gambling.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2020 17:53

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

This forum will not survive the potential event of Biden taking a delegate lead.

Contested convention - Biden chooses Harris as VP then Trump wins WI & the Presidency.

# ¿ Mar 3, 2020 18:40

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Post-ST has Sanders 1/4 to win the nomination.

Biden-Trump General Election WI polls + pollster ratings & Date:

WI - Trump +7 Quinnipiac (B+) 2/12-2/18
Biden +2 YouGov (B-) 2/11-20
TIE Marquette (A/B) 2/19-2/23

# ¿ Mar 4, 2020 22:46

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Jaxyon posted:

Way too early to be obsessing about VP but Warren as VP is dumb, she's old and white. If you want a woman on the ticket there's plenty of options, and VP pick doesn't matter much at all.

Biden/Klobuchar is the strongest ticket in Wisconsin.

# ¿ Mar 5, 2020 02:23

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Mat Cauthon posted:

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1235277449874857986

Bernie can consider himself the favorite in WA & a very slight favorite in ID. Biden is a slight favorite in the primary for OR, AK & HI.

The rest of the primary states are likely/solid Biden. For now.

# ¿ Mar 5, 2020 03:10

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Mat Cauthon posted:

Unsurprisingly, Biden's platform seems legitimately terrible and any media scrutiny of this at all will be very bad for him.

https://twitter.com/A_W_Gordon/status/1235283254485409792

Not holding my breath though.

Senate is likely R so he will need those votes.

# ¿ Mar 5, 2020 03:32

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Nate Silver posted:

FWIW, here's what our demography + geography model thinks are the best contests for Bernie remaining

1) New Mexico
2) Rhode Island
3) Wyoming (note: still a caucus)
4) Idaho
5) Arizona
6) Washington
7) Puerto Rico
8) Oregon
9) Alaska
10) Democrats Abroad

Not a lot of delegates.

In the last 24 hours on PI; AK, & HI have moved to Sanders & OR has moved to Biden. Could be some value in some of these markets.

# ¿ Mar 6, 2020 01:34

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

skylined! posted:

The people's lives that needed to materially change under a trump presidency aren't likely to switch their votes unless the economy completely tanks, and even then it's no guarantee.

Biden is an enormously flawed candidate. WI is the lynchpin in the EC this time around and he will get loving roasted over TPP and NAFTA there.

This is all I am seeing/hearing/reading and it is a piss poor GE strategy. I don't think he inspires enough people to win.

Bernie is still the winning option and there is still time to change the narrative. If you want him to win, you need to help.

Clare Malone 538 posted:

On Super Tuesday, white, college-educated voters fell in line behind black voters� preferences, at least the one telegraphed by Biden�s nearly 30 percentage-point win in South Carolina. With doubts about Biden�s ability to win seeming to melt away � winning, of course, being the great American virtue of our time � the former vice president gained the confidence of even white college-educated voters. Exit polls show Biden did 31 points better with voters in this demographic who decided who to vote for late in the game than those who made their selection earlier.

The �electability� argument won out on the biggest day of primary voting. Just look to Biden�s surprise wins in Massachusetts and Minnesota, the home states of, respectively, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar, and ones filled with white voters. The 2020 primary had been, up until that moment, about finding the point where ideology and pragmatism best meet � former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg tested where exactly that point was situated. On Tuesday, it seemed that the wind was at the backs of the pragmatists. While the party�s base might entertain liberal policies � a February survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that 74 percent of Democrats favor Medicare for All � its Super Tuesday embrace of �electability� also meant embracing some fundamentally illiberal beliefs: namely, that a woman can�t be elected president in 2020.

# ¿ Mar 7, 2020 18:19

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Biden has FL ge in play & Mayor Pete on trade. Also, now looks like he can win w/ Harris @ the VP slot in the Midwest!

Best-case scenario: Polls hold up & Bernie drops out so we don't have to deal w/ another debate & can move on to VP conjecture until July.

# ¿ Mar 10, 2020 19:18

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Nonsense posted:

Then again lol

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1237442130844495872?s=20

Trump admin. response to coronavirus has shed a light on how bad the healthcare system in this country is + nosedived his second-term odds. If there is a debate on Sunday, hopefully Biden can have an Obama-administration-like response ready to ease populace concerns.

# ¿ Mar 10, 2020 19:53

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Roland Jones posted:

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1237439759577944064

I thought the only way the Dem party would screw this nomination up was through unprepared caucus precincts - turns out, they have unprepared primary ballot workers as well. Maybe that's foreshadowing increased turnout foreshadowing a Biden romp.

Nonsense posted:

https://twitter.com/shariaprelaw/status/1237437493122928641?s=20

Walker (who's already lost to Evers) would love nothing more than to campaign against Sanders socialism in November.

# ¿ Mar 10, 2020 20:00

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Angry_Ed posted:

Not being able to defeat the candidate most likely to lose to Trump in the primary is also bad. Learning nothing from 2016 is bad (and that cuts in every direction)

Seems as if a lot of Sanders 2016 was mostly just anti-Hillary.

# ¿ Mar 10, 2020 20:10

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Endorph posted:

https://twitter.com/SacredAmerica/status/1237613013714100224

Political Forensic Files.

# ¿ Mar 13, 2020 00:32

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

bobjr posted:

https://twitter.com/drmistercody/status/1238575946753425408?s=21

They might be listening to him in AZ.

# ¿ Mar 13, 2020 23:51

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

LinYutang posted:

Yes.

Great general-election proposition that has a chance of going through even if the Senate Dems get to 50. Also, a great way to consolidate Sanders' base & hopefully end the Never Biden movement.

# ¿ Mar 14, 2020 22:07

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Politico posted:

2. Amy Klobuchar
If Biden really feels he needs help with flipping Midwest states, Amy Klobuchar is the safest pick. She raised her national profile by running for president. She held her own on the debate stage. She showed she had pull in Trump-curious Minnesota, helping throw the state to Biden. And Minnesota�s Democratic governor can appoint her Senate replacement.

Yet Klobuchar is not without risk. Allegations of staff mistreatment tainted the start of her campaign, though no one ever went on the record. Biden�s vetters should find out whether there are more shoes that could drop. And Klobuchar�s role, while district attorney, in imprisoning a black teenager on reportedly flimsy evidence could be used by Trump to try to weaken Biden�s support among black voters.

Progressive voices in the Democratic Party are already signaling they will react poorly to a Klobuchar pick. Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos tweeted Monday that Klobuchar �would be Tim Kaine 2.0�doing nothing to unify the party, bringing no new demographics to the ticket. It would be (once again) a disaster.�

But complaints on the left are an inevitable, and manageable, annoyance. Winning the Midwest takes precedence.

1. Kamala Harris
But there�s a twist. Biden should conclude, �I don�t need my vice presidential nominee to win the Midwest. I can win the Midwest all by myself!� Polls and primary results show he already has strong appeal to white, right-leaning, working-class and suburban swing voters.

Instead, Biden�s vice presidential nominee would be most useful politically by shoring up his support among culturally liberal young voters eager to elect a woman of color in 2024.

That�s why, of all the qualified women of color on the short list, the obvious choice was, and remains, Kamala Harris.

Two-horse race for VP from a Politico ranking of Biden's potential VP-mates. Article goes on to state that this is really important because VP is the Dem frontrunner for 2024 presidential election.

# ¿ Mar 19, 2020 06:38

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

If the economy rebounds then I think Trump wins. Kamala 2024?

# ¿ Mar 26, 2020 00:18

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Biden supporters really aren't acting like they're confidently winning.

Biden up 3 in Wisconsin, which though within the margin error, would put Trump in "deep trouble" if true, according to Enten on CNN.

# ¿ Apr 2, 2020 08:54

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Antifa Turkeesian posted:

What were Hilldawg�s margins like seven months out from the election?

She lost in the biggest popular vote-versus-Electoral College discrepancy since 1876.

RCP average has Biden up 2.7 in WI & 3.8 in PA.

# ¿ Apr 2, 2020 20:15

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Antifa Turkeesian posted:

So as good or better than rapey Joe right now? Or is he in very safe territory?

Trump's nationwide polling peaked on July 30 of 2016. After black turnout in the Midwest dipped, Trump won (538 had him at 29% to win; 16.5% in WI to 23% in PA).

She was up w/in the margin of error in 2 of 5 head-to-head polls leading up to the Nov. race in WI & 2 of 3 three-way race polls in PA. Meh economy & potential third term of a Dem Presidency put the kabosh on that. What makes this election different?

He's not running against someone w/ as high unfavorables as HRC. In fact, this election is looking more like a referendum on Trump, which is where Biden wants it to be. The economy is the unknown variable because if the recession lasts until Nov. Trump is probably done.

PI has the WI GE market ~@55/45 D/R & PA GE market ~60/40 D/R though the overall GE is @~50/50 D/R w/ Trump/Biden @~50/40 so �\_(ツ)_/�

drawkcab si eman ym fucked around with this message at 21:28 on Apr 2, 2020

# ¿ Apr 2, 2020 21:01

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Uncle Wemus posted:

All that matters is beating Bush and john kerry is the man to do it

The economy is going to swiftboat Trump.

# ¿ Apr 3, 2020 09:50

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Harry Enten posted:

Biden [also] does it with a ~6 pt lead over Trump in national polls... and with 3+ pt leads in polls in AZ, FL, PA and WI... Some of the strongest numbers for any challenger since Truman in 48...

# ¿ Apr 8, 2020 22:38

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# ¿ May 22, 2024 04:36

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

NY Post has Klobuchar over Harris as VP according to "Senior Democratic sources".

# ¿ Apr 13, 2020 09:08

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Dem Presidential Primary 2020: Bernie dropped out, all hail nominee Biden