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IK Note: New OP coming soon, is currently WIP (Work In Progress ft Comrade Cardi B) as of Sept. 8, 2021 to avoid any date ambiguity for a global audience. mod edit: professor beetus is thread ik  Image current as of 9/9/2021  HonorableTB posted:This live feed on YouTube has a great source of cases, deaths, recoveries etc worldwide and all updated in realtime as their health agencies report the data. The stream has been going on in one form or another since the pandemic started last January and there's archived videos that you can browse on their channel to see historical data on any given date and time as long as you can find it in the scrubber Current Biden Admin Plan for our US Citizens tuning in (don't laugh right away; federal worker and contractor mandate could be huge depending on how easy religious exemptions will be): MadJackal posted:More details about Biden’s plans: Great Info on Masks and Respirators Courtesy of C-SPAM and Epic High Five Jaxyon posted:The C-spam thread has a massive wealth of information about masks and respirators Epic High Five posted:It's updated constantly, none of the links I tried are out of date or dead and the links to order are kept up to date from whoever is best/fastest at the time. The 2nd post has lots of respirator crew tips and tricks that some may find helpful. People are encouraged to drop in and say "I don't know where to start, help" like I did but the OP and 2nd post should be plenty Epic High Five posted:The only in-depth look into the various options around this was done by Naomi Wu, you may get more out of it than I did, she's as thorough as ever. Seems to mostly corroborate what you said and go over other options Great data and analysis thanks to MadJackal: MadJackal posted:There's enough data in to start making comments about Delta with more nuance than "IT'S GOING TO KILL EVERYONE!" Petey posted:MJ — thanks for collating these and sharing your own experience. I'm a little confused by your post — you said up top we could start making some statements, but concluded by asking questions about Florida? Or were these statements + a concluding question? Somebody fucked around with this message at 17:40 on Sep 10, 2021 |
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Feb 26, 2020 18:59
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2/2 Pet tax is currently in effect for top of page posts due to the generally depressing state of Covid news, and I will provide one for the OP.  Do not under any circumstances try to micromanage this guy when he is at his desk; it's definitely coming up at his next performance review. jetz0r posted:Take care of your partner and yourself. That's both important, and something you can control. 95% rated filtration masks (N95, KF94, etc), boosters every 4-6 months, and do not share unfiltered air with anyone else. You can both make it through this, but you can't give up. All you'll get for giving up is the same toxic optimists that were eagerly telling you everything is fine will be telling you how unlikely it was that your partner would get that sick, or that you should have been more careful because of the comorbidites. For those who don't know me, I'm an SA greybeard from the long ago times of 2007, and I have been learning and lurking in DND for years. I am back from a fresh name change for unifying my online persona (#branding) and eliminating my old one as much as possible (yes I know nothing's every truly gone on the internet).  I came back to IK in this thread and in a few other spots in DND because I care about maintaining it as a good source for goons looking to check their sanity and get valid info from trusted sources, and to allow debate and discussion about the pandemic without too much heavy handed moderation. I think, personally that we sometimes make the mistake of trying to mod as though posters here are unruly children. And while that may be true for some, who we hope can be swiftly 86'd when they start causing problems, I expect everyone here is an adult. I am not fond of complaints of tone-policing; I think writing off civility and nuance simply as lib brain poo poo is toxic and makes the conversation start from a poo poo place to begin with. As a type 1 diabetic currently cutting back enough so that we can be a 1 income household while my partner is privileged enough to WFH predominately while I recover from a number of recent medical issues including a very recent bipolar diagnosis and subsequent medication. I also had a near death experience from the process of getting admitted into a crowded hospital to attend to an acute condition very recently, so I may be a bit snippy with people that seem callous to where we're at with regards to current expectations of risk management. The flip side of all that is part of being an adult is also being able to acknowledge that you don't necessarily have to like one another to get along together in a shared space, and I'm going to let people dust up a bit because that's debating and discussing. Some of you can stand to have a little bit thicker skin as people are understandably living through unprecedented stressful times completely foreign for most of us from developed nations and another devastation to developing ones (and other places, like the stupid loving United States). As depressing as it was to read through much of the recent modding thread, there were also some real gems and I feel like I've learned a lot from my prior experience as an IK in here that I am hoping to do a much better job, and not resort to buttons whenever possible. I don't need you to maintain a hugbox, but I do appreciate refraining from getting too nasty and try to throw in a pet tax whenever you feel like trying to brighten the mood. Whatever else fall back on the golden rule and try to treat each other like human beings. Due to the social makeup of our forums, deep down I hope we all understand that everyone here is in agreement that things should and could be better, and 99% of our disagreement comes down to how to best get there. There's no need to drag in related disagreements just because we want to escalate, keeping discussion COVID-relevant in here will ideally help keep the temp down a little bit. Regarding thread bans:The rule is that previous threadbans still apply, and that's the rule this thread will abide by. THAT SAID, other than OOCC and anyone currently explicitly poo poo canned from DND, I will not be on the lookout for other threadbans (tbh I probably wouldn't recognize any others except Vasukhani). If everyone can prove my hypothesis that we can use less training wheels and more empathy, I would love it if I never have to push a button in this thread (other than banning electronicmaji and seraph alts). As far as why OOCC, two reasons: 1) I'm not inviting a known and unrepentant covid denialist/minimizer back in without good reason that I can run up to higher powers, and 2) I find the idea of some dipshit being awful enough to get banned from his very own thread, and also how it continued chugging along regardless for well over a year without so much as a name change, especially hilarious. And this is still above all a comedy forum. So yeah, keep calm, carry on, and I will try to be like Adama with a light touch. I want to give back as much to this thread as it's given to me over the last year and a half. 
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Feb 26, 2020 19:20
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e2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDj4Zyq3yOA Watch the first half of this video if you're new to the topic of COVID-19, somehow. https://twitter.com/juliaoftoronto/status/1236967717535731712 e: gonna get this as close to the top as I can, not being the OP Rosalind posted:There's been a lot of scary talk of coronavirus this week so I wrote up a brief no-fearmongering guide to coronavirus for everyone. I will try to keep it updated as new information/news comes out. Let me know if you have any questions or if there's anything I should add! Quoting for this thread in case it sticks around. Like this virus probably will. Munkeymon fucked around with this message at 16:29 on Jul 16, 2020 |
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Feb 26, 2020 19:28
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Sooo...basically it's a Boomer reset button, if we're being terrible about it.
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Feb 26, 2020 19:31
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SpeakSlow posted:Sooo...basically it's a Boomer reset button, if we're being terrible about it. Baby boomers are still under the age of 75. This disease is not going to be the vindicating wrath that wipes away anyone's enemies, be it the elderly or Chinese people or asians in general or whatever. It's a disease that has death rate that is much higher than influenza, but not in the "wipe out everyone" range by any stretch. It is however serious and spreads relatively easily without effort to contain it, and so places are really doing things like quarantines. Which are a relatively major impact on the communities they apply to.
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Feb 26, 2020 19:44
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The tourism industry is going to take a major beating from this. Now that it appears to be spreading within Europe, I'm considering cancelling an upcoming trip. I'm not particularly concerned about getting the virus while travelling but I'm quite concerned about being stuck in an unfamiliar country in a lovely hotel room for the quarantine period, and I expect many other people feel the same way. In this sense, I think the overall lasting risk from this disease is not from the disease itself necessarily, but the reaction to it, which could lead to economic problems, job losses, supply disruptions across a variety of industries, incentives to cover active infections up, etc. PT6A fucked around with this message at 20:35 on Feb 26, 2020 |
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Feb 26, 2020 20:21
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Another thing to keep in mind is that the statistics on the fatality rate so far are for patients who are given full medical intervention as needed: ICU care, ventilators, etc. While not all infected need this level of care, and some are even asymptomatic, some numbers observed in China were that 10-20% of patients needed professional medical care in a hospital, sometimes for several weeks. The concern is that the case fatality rate when a medical system is saturated may be closer to the 10-20% than the 2% when it is unsaturated.
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Feb 26, 2020 21:21
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Griffen posted:The concern is that the case fatality rate when a medical system is saturated may be closer to the 10-20% than the 2% when it is unsaturated. I do not think that is any actual anyone's concern. That is a very wild claim for a mortality rate.
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Feb 26, 2020 21:29
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I do not think that is any actual anyone's concern. That is a very wild claim for a mortality rate. Up to 18% of detected cases are serious cases of pneomonia that require hospitalization, and while the real number is probably lower because of the number of undetected cases, it's not as wild a claim as you think if the medical infrastructure becomes swamped. random source: https://www.healthline.com/health/coronavirus-covid-19#complications "Results from a 2020 studyTrusted Source of 138 people admitted into hospitals in Wuhan, China with NCIP found that 26 percent of those admitted had severe cases and needed to be treated in the intensive care unit (ICU). About 4.3 percent of these people who were admitted to the ICU died from this type of pneumonia." We have about 500k acute care beds and 100k ICU beds in the U.S. If 70% of the population gets it, and 20% of those are severe, and it happens all at once, we're in bad trouble. We're in bad trouble even if those numbers are quite a bit lower and it happens all at once. Unormal fucked around with this message at 21:34 on Feb 26, 2020 |
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Feb 26, 2020 21:31
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Also, has anyone found any good sources about the flu vaccine's effectiveness as a booster? The CDC advisory mentioned everyone getting the flu shot, but I don't know if the reason is to lessen the strain on the medical system from regular flu or because it might actually have some minor benefit against Covid-19? I've heard that the flu shot is good to have even if the strain coctail is off, as it still mitigates the illness somewhat for related strains. I'm wondering if there is a similar, albeit lessened, effect here with SARS2.
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Feb 26, 2020 21:38
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Griffen posted:Also, has anyone found any good sources about the flu vaccine's effectiveness as a booster? The CDC advisory mentioned everyone getting the flu shot, but I don't know if the reason is to lessen the strain on the medical system from regular flu or because it might actually have some minor benefit against Covid-19? I've heard that the flu shot is good to have even if the strain coctail is off, as it still mitigates the illness somewhat for related strains. I'm wondering if there is a similar, albeit lessened, effect here with SARS2. sars-cov-2 isn't influenza it's a coronavirus, different thing. Though you should still get it because you don't want to get coronavirus and influenza at the same time.
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Feb 26, 2020 21:40
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Unormal posted:sars-cov-2 isn't influenza it's a coronavirus, different thing. Though you should still get it because you don't want to get coronavirus and influenza at the same time. Thanks, the way the media has made comparisons between corona viruses and influenza made me think they were related. Reading some wiki articles cleared that up.
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Feb 26, 2020 22:09
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Unormal posted:We have about 500k acute care beds and 100k ICU beds in the U.S. If 70% of the population gets it, and 20% of those are severe, and it happens all at once, we're in bad trouble. We're in bad trouble even if those numbers are quite a bit lower and it happens all at once. This is absolutely positively not a disease with a 20% mortality rate. You are mashing up numbers in a way that doesn't really make any sense. This is a serious disease, it's more serious than a normal flu and not good to minimize, but no one needs to go off the deep end and suggest this is smallpox or something. It has a mortality rate of 2%, with a majority of that being in older people. In younger people it has a mortality rate of less than one percent, which is objectively very low individual risk but quite high for a disease like this which is basically a cold virus that can spread as easily as a cold virus.
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Feb 26, 2020 23:22
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:This is absolutely positively not a disease with a 20% mortality rate. You are mashing up numbers in a way that doesn't really make any sense. This is a serious disease, it's more serious than a normal flu and not good to minimize, but no one needs to go off the deep end and suggest this is smallpox or something. It has a mortality rate of 2%, with a majority of that being in older people. In younger people it has a mortality rate of less than one percent, which is objectively very low individual risk but quite high for a disease like this which is basically a cold virus that can spread as easily as a cold virus. I didn't say it had a 20% mortality rate though? It has a mortality rate of 2% when treated in ICU. Something like 20% of cases are serious, requiring hospitalization. If hospitals are overfull, which is extremely reasonable to suspect if we don't control the outbreak, then the mortality rate will be higher; nobody's suggesting all 20% of those will die, they obviously wouldn't... but also obviously more than 2% will die, not to mention non-coronavirus issues that will cause excess deaths if the system is overwhelmed by coronavirus. Given the severity of the disease it's extremely reasonable to have these concerns, and acting otherwise is simply normalicy bias. Unormal fucked around with this message at 23:31 on Feb 26, 2020 |
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Feb 26, 2020 23:27
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:This is absolutely positively not a disease with a 20% mortality rate. You are mashing up numbers in a way that doesn't really make any sense. This is a serious disease, it's more serious than a normal flu and not good to minimize, but no one needs to go off the deep end and suggest this is smallpox or something. It has a mortality rate of 2%, with a majority of that being in older people. In younger people it has a mortality rate of less than one percent, which is objectively very low individual risk but quite high for a disease like this which is basically a cold virus that can spread as easily as a cold virus. It has a mortality rate of 2% when everyone is able to get a bed in an ICU and has access to a ventilator in critical cases. The question is what happens in a wide-spread pandemic when access to critical medical equipment is limited by sheer numbers of patients. It's the same thing when you have flu patients unable to get to the hospital - the effective case fatality rate goes up. How much is an open question, but the numbers coming out of China is that up 20% of patients have either serious or critical conditions that require intensive medical care. It makes perfect sense to worry about what the effective case fatality rate is once you saturate the medical system and run out of critical, life-saving equipment. As for your ludicrous statement that this is "basically a cold virus," standard influenza A epidemics have a CFR of 0.1% or less. Covid-19 has a CFR of ~2%, so it is 20 times more deadly than the flu. Will this kill everyone on earth and leave us in an eternal mad-max hellstate? No. Does this have the potential to kill millions? Absolutely yes, and it is worth considering just how that might happen. Sticking your head in the sand is not an effective solution to pandemics.
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Feb 26, 2020 23:34
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there's some reason to suspect current case numbers are significantly underestimated and therefore that lethality / serious cases are overestimated the downside, of course, is that infectivity is also underestimated
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Feb 26, 2020 23:41
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331 million people in the U.S. A 2% fatality rate kills over 6 million. Imagine waking up to the headline that 6 million people in the United States died of coronavirus. Seems unthinkable. Makes one hope that the fatality rate in the U.S. would be lower than in China due to quality of medical care, but banking anything on "quality" medical care in the U.S. seems like a dodgy proposition.
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Feb 26, 2020 23:42
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GreyjoyBastard posted:there's some reason to suspect current case numbers are significantly underestimated and therefore that lethality / serious cases are overestimated There's no strong evidence of that, here's a WHO guy saying that testing doesn't necessarily support the hope that there's some huge iceberg of undetected cases: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-o0q1XMRKYM&t=4076s Hopefully yes, but maybe not. (also that care in China is quite good, probably better than you're getting in the US unless you're wealthy) Unormal fucked around with this message at 23:53 on Feb 26, 2020 |
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Feb 26, 2020 23:47
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Unormal posted:There's no strong evidence of that, here's a WHO guy saying that testing doesn't necessarily support the hope that there's some huge iceberg of undetected cases: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-o0q1XMRKYM&t=4076s It sounds like he's saying that there's not yet any evidence that there is an iceberg of undetected cases, but he's not ruling it out? When I listen to that it sounds like he's hedging and doesn't really have an answer. It seems reasonable to assume both that testing capacity is full almost everywhere and that people with mild cases might be hesitant to seek treatment in China due to the risk of contracting the disease (if it ends up being just a cold) by going to the hospital. They've confirmed cases of infection that are basically asymptomatic or completely indistinguishable from a mild cold, but it seems like it'll be a long time before enough people will have been tested to have any idea of the percentage of super mild cases.
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Feb 27, 2020 00:12
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My worry is the USA, which:
And I'm probably forgetting poo poo.
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Feb 27, 2020 00:18
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idiot in charge is giving a statement starting in 5 minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_0iw62a6PQ He has the CDC with him and I don't know if that means he's going to stick to a script or if he's gonna go off in line with his tweets earlier (which would be hilarious)
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Feb 27, 2020 00:24
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Griffen posted:
It’s literally like a cold virus, you have had coronaviruses a dozen times in your life and said you have a cold. This is clearly more severe than other coronaviruses but it’s not a magic virus that plays by different rules than the more mundane diseases caused by the same virus family.
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Feb 27, 2020 00:33
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Gnumonic posted:It sounds like he's saying that there's not yet any evidence that there is an iceberg of undetected cases, but he's not ruling it out? When I listen to that it sounds like he's hedging and doesn't really have an answer. It seems reasonable to assume both that testing capacity is full almost everywhere and that people with mild cases might be hesitant to seek treatment in China due to the risk of contracting the disease (if it ends up being just a cold) by going to the hospital. They've confirmed cases of infection that are basically asymptomatic or completely indistinguishable from a mild cold, but it seems like it'll be a long time before enough people will have been tested to have any idea of the percentage of super mild cases. It's true that it could still go either way, but it's not that there's no evidence either way but rather that they do have *some* evidence and that evidence is in support of the idea that there isn't a huge bulk of undetected cases. The error bands are still very big though.
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Feb 27, 2020 00:38
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And community spread in the US is confirmed https://twitter.com/passantino/status/1232838914034917376
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Feb 27, 2020 02:29
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san francisco declared a state of emergency over coronavirus a few days ago, but that one was more weird bureaucratic rule thing than actual specific emergency.
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Feb 27, 2020 03:08
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So does this kill you by asphyxiation because you can't breathe?
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Feb 27, 2020 03:37
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human garbage bag posted:So does this kill you by asphyxiation because you can't breathe? I believe that’s the current theory of what’s happening: it’s causing viral pneumonia and then you can’t breathe. And that’s a complete fucker, to be clear. It’s very bad. But it’s not as bad as the believed cytokine storm from the 1918 flu, which is also believed to have occurred as a result of SARS. It’s bad news if you’re immune compromised and slightly less bad otherwise. This isn’t like Ebola where it basically just wrecks every single part of you.
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Feb 27, 2020 04:00
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PT6A posted:I believe that’s the current theory of what’s happening: it’s causing viral pneumonia and then you can’t breathe. And that’s a complete fucker, to be clear. It’s very bad. But it’s not as bad as the believed cytokine storm from the 1918 flu, which is also believed to have occurred as a result of SARS. It’s bad news if you’re immune compromised and slightly less bad otherwise. Well apparently Ebola disintegrates you.
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Feb 27, 2020 04:52
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Turns out the phasers in Star Trek just shoot out concentrated mists of Ebola. Who knew!
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Feb 27, 2020 04:58
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It's interesting living in Indonesia during this, because while there's still zero cases here it also seems like they aren't trying very hard to look for it, having conducted fewer than 100 tests so far (total population is 264 million), which seems low for a popular destination for Chinese tourists that had direct flights from Wuhan. A recent thing that happened was that a tourist from Japan was sick, went to a doctor in Japan, then went on Holiday to Bali and then went home to Japan and subsequently got diagnosed with the virus and that hasn't lead to more cases popping up. This case also involved a health official saying "it's not COVID-19, it's SARS-COV-2, which is 70% the same but not completely the same" despite him having read the WHO thing that says that one is the virus and one is the disease and that they are in fact the same. https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/02/26/health-officials-trace-contacts-of-japanese-covid-19-patient-in-bali.html Then there's the fact that diplomats from other countries are raising concerns that they aren't looking hard enough, and there's issues around specimens not being transferred correctly. https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/us-embassy-raises-critical-coronavirus-concerns-with-indonesia-20200223-p543l3.html There's also just been a lot of officials saying things like, maybe the traditional drinks Indonesians consume keep the virus away, maybe the climate has something to do with it (with Singapore having a similar climate, but not counting due to being a more air-conditioned country). The Health Minister responded to a Harvard study about the likelihood of undetected cases in Indonesia by saying it was an insult (this same health minister was once banned from being a doctor for two years for using an unproven technique to treat stroke patients and charging them a lot of money for it). At this point I kind of just hope the random theories about the virus not surviving in Indonesia's climate are true because I have zero faith in the government's ability to actually handle this if cases do start to pop up.
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Feb 27, 2020 07:21
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Why do so many viruses start in china? Large population, poor public health, etc? Or is it something else about the climate or urban planning or whatever?
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Feb 27, 2020 07:37
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Kill Bristol posted:Why do so many viruses start in china? Large population, poor public health, etc? Or is it something else about the climate or urban planning or whatever? Because they eat everything. "What? If I eat pickled slug vomit my weiner will get hard? Sold!"
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Feb 27, 2020 08:03
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Waltzing Along posted:Because they eat everything. "What? If I eat pickled slug vomit my weiner will get hard? Sold!" Mods?
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Feb 27, 2020 08:07
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Crumbskull posted:Mods? That's the theory. They eat everything. Sometimes for status. Sometimes for medical beliefs. And because they expose themselves to things that might not be suitable to human consumption, they open themselves up to weird viruses. https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2020/02/18/why_do_new_disease_outbreaks_always_seem_to_start_in_china.html
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Feb 27, 2020 08:14
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Waltzing Along posted:That's the theory. They eat everything. Sometimes for status. Sometimes for medical beliefs. And because they expose themselves to things that might not be suitable to human consumption, they open themselves up to weird viruses. Ah, yes, RealClearScience, the source of factual articles such as "Is your penis normal? There's a chart for that". It has "science" in the name, so you know it's scientific!
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Feb 27, 2020 08:57
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1 in 5 people that exist live in China. Of course lots of things happen there, there is many diseases of note that don’t originate in China: west Nile,Ebola, Zika, mad cow. Most of the recent diseases mostly aren’t from China any more than anywhere else. Like this doesn’t need to be another reddit style thread of just being weird and racist. This isn’t a disease that happened because we eat the right and proper foods and those evil scary orientals eat spooky ethnic food.
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Feb 27, 2020 09:12
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I don't see where you get racist from. I find that bizarre. Especially because I was told this by my obviously racist Chinese girlfriend. I just did a quick google search and found that link. But whatever. I'm sorry if I offended anyone's sensibilities. The reality is no one knows for sure why any disease starts anywhere. There are just theories. Could it be because there are a ton of people? Yeah, that is surely part of it. Could it be because there is a lot more contact between different species? It's a theory that has some credence. But it's not loving racist. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 27, 2020 09:17
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Of course lots of people live there, but wild animal markets are a huge problem, it's basically just asking for normally mild viruses for certain animals to cross species barriers multiple times before it finds a way to cross into the human ecosystem and cause a deadly pandemic. All of these virii coming out of China are in one way or another linked directly to wild animal markets. Why do you think Europe in medieval times was a hive for so many infectious and completely devastating diseases? Exact same reasons, unregulated domestication of wild animals.
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Feb 27, 2020 09:24
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qhat posted:Of course lots of people live there, but wild animal markets are a huge problem, it's basically just asking for normally mild viruses for certain animals to cross species barriers multiple times before it finds a way to cross into the human ecosystem and cause a deadly pandemic. All of these virii coming out of China are in one way or another linked directly to wild animal markets. Why do you think Europe in medieval times was a hive for so many infectious and completely devastating diseases? Exact same reasons, unregulated domestication of wild animals. FWIW that's also what I've been told, minus the wild part - that China was one of the only places where local markets feature large populations of live animals of every stripe (as opposed to "the butcher comes along with various refrigerated cuts of meat/processed meat products to sell") which makes it way easier for viruses from one species to jump to another, or for multiple mild strains from different species to form Viral Voltron (as I was given to understand is the case for coronavirus ?)
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Feb 27, 2020 09:45
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Kobal2 posted:FWIW that's also what I've been told, minus the wild part - that China was one of the only places where local markets feature large populations of live animals of every stripe (as opposed to "the butcher comes along with various refrigerated cuts of meat/processed meat products to sell") which makes it way easier for viruses from one species to jump to another, or for multiple mild strains from different species to form Viral Voltron (as I was given to understand is the case for coronavirus ?) The variety of animals at these markets is staggering, and not all are equally as dangerous. I think it was SARS that was linked to bats (through civets) which, by the way, are unbelievable reservoirs for all kinds of virii. China for the longest time has encouraged the capturing and selling of these animals for consumption or use in traditional Chinese medicine primarily as a way for their poorest to actually earn a living. Banning those markets permanently (which they did on Monday) will go a long way to preventing further pandemics with the same regularity.
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Feb 27, 2020 09:53
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