Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
I spent 15 months until vaccines were available protecting my type 1 diabetic partner and the reward for doing everything correctly for so long is the crushing realization that it will be years at a minimum before it will be safe enough to go to a concert or convention again without the risk of drowning in my own fluids let alone how dangerous it will be for her, who also has asthma and high blood pressure, and it's largely because a minority of contrarian assholes would rather poison themselves to death with everything they are told to take except for a vaccine. And not being dead I guess, that too. That's a reward I suppose

Number must go up but no one said whether that number was economic activity or virus laden corpses of the vulnerable, what the gently caress is the point when we are denied even the schadenfreude of some these assholes dying from the thing killing all of us because like with all things they are insulated and protected from consequences by their wealth and privileged status

https://twitter.com/getvaxxedstat/s...ingawful.com%2F

HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 00:39 on Sep 8, 2021

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Stickman
Feb 1, 2004

How are u posted:

I would say: try to let go of the things that you can't control and live your life the best you can.

The pandemic die has been cast, the bell can't be unwrung, and the path we're on (slowly ratcheting up vaccines for a couple of years until covid burns out and becomes a nuisance disease) is pretty well set in stone. Set expectations accordingly. That's me, anyway.

It never ceases to amaze me that you manage to simultaneously argue that any collective control measures are impossible / personal measures are too onerous / the path our government has taken is the best possible AND ALSO have the audacity to throw the "doomer" label at people who agitate for alternatives and argue that likely outcomes are unacceptable.

Stickman fucked around with this message at 00:44 on Sep 8, 2021

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
Sorry for bringing the mood down, I'm just gonna log off for a bit. I'm not in a good headspace atm

Here's a pretty sunset pic I took from my roof in apology


HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 00:56 on Sep 8, 2021

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Stickman posted:

It never ceases to amaze me that you manage to simultaneously argue that any collective control measures are impossible / personal measures are too onerous / the path our government has taken is the best possible AND ALSO have the audacity to throw the "doomer" label at people who agitate for alternatives and argue that likely outcomes are unacceptable.

I think that collective control measures are possible, I fully support mask mandates and social distancing. I don't think, however, that the collective control measures you may be thinking of are particularly plausible at this point. Lived experience seems to bear that out.

I've definitely never felt personal protective measures are too onerous. I masked up immediately at the beginning of the pandemic, and only stopped in the late Spring / early Summer pre-Delta when being fully vaccinated was indeed almost 100% immunity and my state and local government + the CDC said it was ok to forgo them. I have been and remain masked in public since Delta arrived, and happily so.

I don't think that the path our government has taken was the best possible, but I do think that it was pretty inevitable. Again, looking at the vast vast majority of nations across the world bears this out.

"Doomers" are people who think that the pandemic will never end, or that vaccines don't work. The pandemic will end, and the vaccines are the incredible miracle that will ensure it does sooner than later.

MadJackal
Apr 30, 2004

There's enough data in to start making comments about Delta with more nuance than "IT'S GOING TO KILL EVERYONE!"

Delta is a game changer on top of a game changer, and everything is made more complex by the hyper party/socioeconomic/demographic splits in the US.

Let's take two states with two different generally different approaches to COVID: New York and Florida.

NYC has gone through three distinct waves of positive cases, the latest coinciding with Delta.



The most surprising thing to me is that while this third wave is likely hitting somewhere in the ballpark of 60-90% unvaccinated, we aren't seeing that tidal wave of deaths like back in March and April of 2020.



I'm going with the idea that the vast, vast majority of the most vulnerable elderly are vaccinated, leading to very few deaths. The positive cases I've personally seen have been in clusters of relatively young (<50 years old) uniformly unvaccinated families where Delta hits every last person. This is in contrast to COVID wildtype, which had a funny tendency to occasionally avoid family members in the same household in my anecdotal experience.



And for a city of 8,804,190, having a current hospitalized head count of 56 is nothing short of amazing considering my one team alone on Long Island was taking care of 20-something COVID cases 18 months ago.



Now Florida.

Cases are the highest they've ever been.



The wildfire spread is killing the most vulnerable at the highest rates they've ever seen.



Vaccination rates are surprisingly high considering this chaos.



It's not like NYC is majority N95 or elastomeric wearers. Dicknosing above cloth masks or flat out non-masking on even the subway is happening with a good ~1 in 4 people I see. Even with the city's "vaccine mandate" for indoor dining, none of the places I went to last weekend checked for proof. So what is going on in Florida that makes it special? Did COVID just finally breach into the most vulnerable areas and is taking its inevitable toll?

I think the CDC can no longer make blanket statements about good recommendations for the entire nation. The regional differences in prior outbreaks, vaccination uptake, and personal tolerance/adherence with PPE is wildly different and shouldn't be the same everywhere, and are being largely ignored regardless.

nexous
Jan 14, 2003

I just want to be pure
NYs first wave and FLs delta wave have two things in common: lack of testing and intentionally suppressing numbers

jetz0r
May 10, 2003

Tomorrow, our nation will sit on the throne of the world. This is not a figment of the imagination, but a fact. Tomorrow we will lead the world, Allah willing.



HonorableTB posted:

I spent 15 months until vaccines were available protecting my type 1 diabetic partner and the reward for doing everything correctly for so long is the crushing realization that it will be years at a minimum before it will be safe enough to go to a concert or convention again without the risk of drowning in my own fluids let alone how dangerous it will be for her, who also has asthma and high blood pressure, and it's largely because a minority of contrarian assholes would rather poison themselves to death with everything they are told to take except for a vaccine. And not being dead I guess, that too. That's a reward I suppose

Number must go up but no one said whether that number was economic activity or virus laden corpses of the vulnerable, what the gently caress is the point when we are denied even the schadenfreude of some these assholes dying from the thing killing all of us because like with all things they are insulated and protected from consequences by their wealth and privileged status

Take care of your partner and yourself. That's both important, and something you can control. 95% rated filtration masks (N95, KF94, etc), boosters every 4-6 months, and do not share unfiltered air with anyone else. You can both make it through this, but you can't give up. All you'll get for giving up is the same toxic optimists that were eagerly telling you everything is fine will be telling you how unlikely it was that your partner would get that sick, or that you should have been more careful because of the comorbidites.

American society's leader do not care if either of you die or suffer. You know this, I know this, and they know this. The same people that don't want single payer healthcare because it's not profitable are still in charge. They are fine with any amount of suffering and death, as long they can profit from it. And right now, the way to stay profitable is to pretend everything is normal. But the world has changed. A respiratory disease that's as contagious as chicken pox, hospitalizes 10% of its victims, and easily spreads during an asymptomatic period is part of life now. I'm sorry there's no treat for being good. We're still in a devastating natural disaster, and sociopaths in charge are telling every one to get out into the flood waters to work and spend.

You can still go enjoy life with your partner, just not the same way as before. My partner and I have been doing a lot of picnics and walks outside, when the wildfire smoke is clear enough. Along with some joint arts and crafts to have some cool items that we both helped create.


Flappy Bert
Dec 11, 2011

I have seen the light, and it is a string


MadJackal posted:

It's not like NYC is majority N95 or elastomeric wearers. Dicknosing above cloth masks or flat out non-masking on even the subway is happening with a good ~1 in 4 people I see. Even with the city's "vaccine mandate" for indoor dining, none of the places I went to last weekend checked for proof. So what is going on in Florida that makes it special? Did COVID just finally breach into the most vulnerable areas and is taking its inevitable toll?

Isn't a problem with Florida that the vaccine counts are not necessarily all residents? People come to Florida during the first lull in 2020, get vaccinated, and it shows up in the FL numbers even though it's effectively in a different state. Has anyone tried to quantify this?

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

HonorableTB posted:

I spent 15 months until vaccines were available protecting my type 1 diabetic partner and the reward for doing everything correctly for so long is the crushing realization that it will be years at a minimum before it will be safe enough to go to a concert or convention again without the risk of drowning in my own fluids let alone how dangerous it will be for her, who also has asthma and high blood pressure, and it's largely because a minority of contrarian assholes would rather poison themselves to death with everything they are told to take except for a vaccine. And not being dead I guess, that too. That's a reward I suppose

Number must go up but no one said whether that number was economic activity or virus laden corpses of the vulnerable, what the gently caress is the point when we are denied even the schadenfreude of some these assholes dying from the thing killing all of us because like with all things they are insulated and protected from consequences by their wealth and privileged status

https://twitter.com/getvaxxedstat/s...ingawful.com%2F

Hey, I get that. I have type 1 diabetes and my partner and I have been isolated for well over a year and have only recently spent more time around other vaccinated people, and now with delta and open er up poo poo still mostly underway (ooo a mask mandate, that will surely solve this) so we're even cutting back on that, especially since the entire rest of the family are all pretty much done giving a poo poo.

But we have access to resources, we're both healthy, vaxxed and covid free. We have online social outlets with remote dnd with both online and IRL friends. We have shitloads of video games and tv shows and movies and books. And three sweet kitties who keep us feeling loved. So we will continue doing our best to do our do diligence and remain as safe as we reasonably can, and I think with the absolute garbage government response in the US, that's about as good as one can do right now. I am so loving sorry and my heart goes out to all of you who have children.

Bonus pets incoming:

How it started


How it's going

7of7
Jul 1, 2008

nexous posted:

NYs first wave and FLs delta wave have two things in common: lack of testing and intentionally suppressing numbers

Florida's data make me laugh. "Oh yeah our near vertical climb in cases suddenly became exactly horizontal at 100 cases/100000"

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Professor Beetus posted:

my heart goes out to all of you who have children.

Hear hear. My niece and nephew both started preschool today. I don't even know what to think about it, it sucks, its so scary. I know they'll probably be fine even if they catch it, but god it is scary.

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

jetz0r posted:

You can still go enjoy life with your partner, just not the same way as before. My partner and I have been doing a lot of picnics and walks outside, when the wildfire smoke is clear enough. Along with some joint arts and crafts to have some cool items that we both helped create.

Hell yeah. I have started learning guitar chords, perfecting recipes, sketching. You know, I loving went to college and got an English degree specifically for writing, and this is the first time in thirteen years I've written a short story, because I finally took charge of my mental health. Not to make this thread good vibes only, this is serious poo poo, but I am grateful that this thread is here with y'all posting in it because it's absolutely been a sanity check for me. Thanks for keeping it real and halfway chill.

e: BTW the Final Fantasy Pixel Remasters are 100% worth it for the in game audio player alone, much less the games themselves. It kinda sucks that the garbage versions came out for so long but these are absolutely a labor of love and it shows. In typical goon fashion I'm sure many of you are already playing them, but just in case you live under a rock that's my gaming rec currently. If you're looking for a good book I'd recommend The Traitor Baru Cormorant, by Seth Dickinson. Absolutely great book, and apparently it has good sequels, though I haven't read them yet.

Professor Beetus fucked around with this message at 01:50 on Sep 8, 2021

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Flappy Bert posted:

Isn't a problem with Florida that the vaccine counts are not necessarily all residents? People come to Florida during the first lull in 2020, get vaccinated, and it shows up in the FL numbers even though it's effectively in a different state. Has anyone tried to quantify this?

OK, then how about Texas? Heck, look up death numbers for Mississippi.

(I think besides vaccination also % affected by previous cases might matter? )

jetz0r
May 10, 2003

Tomorrow, our nation will sit on the throne of the world. This is not a figment of the imagination, but a fact. Tomorrow we will lead the world, Allah willing.



Professor Beetus posted:

Hell yeah. I have started learning guitar chords, perfecting recipes, sketching. You know, I loving went to college and got an English degree specifically for writing, and this is the first time in thirteen years I've written a short story, because I finally took charge of my mental health. Not to make this thread good vibes only, this is serious poo poo, but I am grateful that this thread is here with y'all posting in it because it's absolutely been a sanity check for me. Thanks for keeping it real and halfway chill.

e: BTW the Final Fantasy Pixel Remasters are 100% worth it for the in game audio player alone, much less the games themselves. It kinda sucks that the garbage versions came out for so long but these are absolutely a labor of love and it shows. In typical goon fashion I'm sure many of you are already playing them, but just in case you live under a rock that's my gaming rec currently. If you're looking for a good book I'd recommend The Traitor Baru Cormorant, by Seth Dickinson. Absolutely great book, and apparently it has good sequels, though I haven't read them yet.

I'm not gonna say this isn't stressful, and doesn't suck. I've literally been to hundreds of concerts and festivals in my life due to work. About 1 a week for years. I'm not a super social person, but being around thousands of people on the floor of a show, or salmoning myself against the flow through hallways to get around a venue was a normal part of life for me. And even at the worst shows, seeing someone taken away in an ambulance was always sad. The few times someone died at a show were talked about for months afterwards. Those events are supposed to be fun celebrations (and capitalistic profiteering), not traumatic events. Even in the mosh pits where injuries were common, the people were having a loving blast.

Now I have to think that there's 10k people in the audience, vaccination rate for this demographic group is X%, means there's going to be Y hundreds to thousands of cases, leading to dozens of hospitalizations, and some deaths. All because they wanted to have fun and were told or though this was safe, and because a multi-billion dollar concert promoter wanted to make more money. Several of my ex-coworkers have already died, and more will die from these events. How the gently caress can I enjoy a celebration with a body count? Bruno Mars isn't a loving Dothraki wedding, and I can't feel comfortable with that amount of suffering being added to fun events.

I also don't want to be around the kind of people that ARE fine with that amount of suffering being added to every event.

Objective Action
Jun 10, 2007



Siri: set a reminder for three months to call everyone itt names for being unable to remember how time lags of pandemic progressions demonstrably work across the United States.

Phigs
Jan 23, 2019

How are u posted:

I don't think that the path our government has taken was the best possible, but I do think that it was pretty inevitable. Again, looking at the vast vast majority of nations across the world bears this out.

Pure coincidence that the vast majority of governments across the world that prove it can't be done all follow roughly the same ideology.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Phigs posted:

Pure coincidence that the vast majority of governments across the world that prove it can't be done all follow roughly the same ideology.

China isn't a communist / socialist / marxist-leninist nation, either. They are authoritarian capitalists, and heading the direction of fascist.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

How are u posted:

China isn't a communist / socialist / marxist-leninist nation, either. They are authoritarian capitalists, and heading the direction of fascist.

will you cut this poo poo out already, this isn't the thread to argue the dominant political ideology of the CPC and statements like this are just threadshitting

A big flaming stink fucked around with this message at 04:05 on Sep 8, 2021

Phigs
Jan 23, 2019

How are u posted:

China isn't a communist / socialist / marxist-leninist nation, either. They are authoritarian capitalists, and heading the direction of fascist.

It's not about communism vs capitalism. It's about a global ideology that demands less government and more individualism. Australia only did as well as it did because it's behind in the global project to uproot the old systems. And New Zealand is doing better because its even further behind.

We failed because we are designing our nations TO fail this sort of test. And you can't point to the rest of the world failing as evidence that it can't be done because the rest of the world is making the same mistakes for the same reasons. It's not like every country tried wildly different approaches.

i am harry
Oct 14, 2003

S1E3 of ds9 has a virus spread through the station and everyone is supposed to be quarantined but they all went out to Quark’s instead lmao! And a space trucker is forced to stay and lose his shipment despite not wanting to get sick and trying to gtfo before the problem started hahahahaaaaa and then it mutates and becomes airborne within a day

i am harry fucked around with this message at 03:46 on Sep 8, 2021

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

i am harry posted:

S1E3 of ds9 has a virus spread through the station and everyone is supposed to be quarantined but they all went out to Quark’s instead lmao! And a space trucker is forced to stay and lose his shipment despite not wanting to get sick and trying to gtfo before the problem started hahahahaaaaa and then it mutates and becomes airborne within a day

Yeah I rewatched DS9 during the pandemic and that episode was a bit too much for my partner lol.

Anyway don't loving slapfight about China in here; I'm not going to stop discussion of different ideologies potential motives and approaches to the pandemic, have it and debate and discuss. Just try to keep it civil and if you want to debate what kind of system China well, actually has please take it to the China megathread. I cannot personally vouch for its quality as I do not lurk or post in that thread but if you want to talk about China in the broader sense and less Covid relevant I would appreciate it moving on.

Really want to emphasize I really want you to discuss this stuff, it's not bait and I won't probe anyone without a fair warning barring something really bad, and unfortunately everyone has different opinions about where that line is and I'm just trying to keep things simple and just ask everyone to be nice because it's been going pretty well so far. We can't all like each other but we all have to share the same space.

Apologies if this is coming off as heavy handed but I appreciate all the informative poo poo this thread has given me throughout the pandemic and I'm just motivated to gently nudge it in the right direction, feel free to pm me feedback, I'd rather not have stuff in the thread because the thread isn't about me, but if you feel more comfortable giving me criticism here rather than via pm I would just ask that you try to add it in to a post you were already planning on making or something like that. Thanks again goon fam

e: minor grammatical edits and clarification about my assumption of the China thread's quality

Professor Beetus fucked around with this message at 04:20 on Sep 8, 2021

tagesschau
Sep 1, 2006
Guten Abend, meine Damen und Herren.

Blitter posted:

If you're going to public events unmasked or restaurants or bars, stop wondering who the problem is.

I'm not going to public events unmasked, or dining indoors (and outdoor dining isn't really a problem), but even if I were, you're accomplishing about as much here lecturing me about causing climate change by not having my tires properly inflated, or asking me to help fund government programs by voluntarily paying more taxes. Maybe it makes you feel like you're accomplishing something by yelling at individuals who aren't the problem, but you sure as hell aren't.

In a world where people are being allowed to gather, unmasked, in huge numbers, and being forced back to work in COVID-unsafe situations, don't expect me to pretend that criticizing me for wanting to have a beer on a patio, or, y'know, see my family ever again, is anything other than a demonstrably unhinged reaction.

Bizarre Echo
Jul 1, 2011

"I am pleased that we have differences. May we together become greater than the sum of both of us."

Lord Stimperor posted:

I can totally get the position pt6a and Tagesschau are in.

Where I am there are practically zero protections anymore. When kids at school get infected, the state doesn't even recommend self isolation for their mates anymore. Health care is so overworked that some surgeries now have a waiting list of 2 years, but everyone around me is acting like 2019. I have to defend why I'm wearing a mask at the doctor's office. The only place where I occasionally see people still keeping up any kind of hygiene is the Asian supermarket. I am expected to show up in person at at least some work functions.

I constantly feel like a crazy person because the reality I live in seems to be a completely different one from my colleagues and most IRL friends. By contrast when o go onto this thread I feel that I should be ashamed of myself because I visited a supermarket in person. It just gnaws on your sense of reality and maintaining that dissonance is tiring.

I've been thinking through a lot of this as well. I'm still masked up and distancing as best possible, but my institution just held the first football game of the season, and my boss is trying to eliminate remote work. Meanwhile, our main hospital just cancelled all non-critical care to devote resources to intensive care. My office is mostly keeping to masking, more or less because I and a few others have enough social cachet that we're able to set norms.

Look, I get it. I did everything right, and when I hear people choosing to pretend like the pandemic isn't a thing, I hear the DOOM music kick in. The posters who said that state- and federal-level interventions are needed are absolutely right, because widespread problems like pandemics need widespread, organized responses. But the lack of organized response doesn't absolve me of my own responsibilities to the people around me.

Stimperor, I get what you were saying about feeling like you're the crazy one because I've been struggling with it too. I've had two thoughts rattling around in my head; "the rain doesn't stop because I don't want to be wet anymore" and "do I need to roll these dice?" I'm soaked, but that doesn't change that what I'm doing does impact the people around me. If I choose to roll dice and contract COVID, I'm increasing risk of people who may be in a worse place to deal with it. Like, think of the level of contempt it would take for me to endanger my person who just got out of surgery, or the one who is taking medications that knocks out their immune system, because I just couldn't be without college football? How would I even explain that to their faces? "lol sorry, your well-being is less important to me than a night out?" It's not.

HonorableTB posted:

I spent 15 months until vaccines were available protecting my type 1 diabetic partner and the reward for doing everything correctly for so long is the crushing realization that it will be years at a minimum before it will be safe enough to go to a concert or convention again without the risk of drowning in my own fluids let alone how dangerous it will be for her, who also has asthma and high blood pressure, and it's largely because a minority of contrarian assholes would rather poison themselves to death with everything they are told to take except for a vaccine. And not being dead I guess, that too. That's a reward I suppose

Number must go up but no one said whether that number was economic activity or virus laden corpses of the vulnerable, what the gently caress is the point when we are denied even the schadenfreude of some these assholes dying from the thing killing all of us because like with all things they are insulated and protected from consequences by their wealth and privileged status

You keep doing it for another fifteen months, or thirty months, or whatever, because your partner is worth it. The contrarian assholes are infuriating and them getting their comeuppance would be viscerally satisfying, but it's not the point. The point is keeping her safe.


e: your cloud pictures are amazing, I wish I had your view. Please post more.

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Bizarre Echo posted:

I've been thinking through a lot of this as well. I'm still masked up and distancing as best possible, but my institution just held the first football game of the season, and my boss is trying to eliminate remote work. Meanwhile, our main hospital just cancelled all non-critical care to devote resources to intensive care. My office is mostly keeping to masking, more or less because I and a few others have enough social cachet that we're able to set norms.

Look, I get it. I did everything right, and when I hear people choosing to pretend like the pandemic isn't a thing, I hear the DOOM music kick in. The posters who said that state- and federal-level interventions are needed are absolutely right, because widespread problems like pandemics need widespread, organized responses. But the lack of organized response doesn't absolve me of my own responsibilities to the people around me.

Stimperor, I get what you were saying about feeling like you're the crazy one because I've been struggling with it too. I've had two thoughts rattling around in my head; "the rain doesn't stop because I don't want to be wet anymore" and "do I need to roll these dice?" I'm soaked, but that doesn't change that what I'm doing does impact the people around me. If I choose to roll dice and contract COVID, I'm increasing risk of people who may be in a worse place to deal with it. Like, think of the level of contempt it would take for me to endanger my person who just got out of surgery, or the one who is taking medications that knocks out their immune system, because I just couldn't be without college football? How would I even explain that to their faces? "lol sorry, your well-being is less important to me than a night out?" It's not.

You keep doing it for another fifteen months, or thirty months, or whatever, because your partner is worth it. The contrarian assholes are infuriating and them getting their comeuppance would be viscerally satisfying, but it's not the point. The point is keeping her safe.


e: your cloud pictures are amazing, I wish I had your view. Please post more.

drat now I gotta call out this great post; excellent content and well said.

Cheesus
Oct 17, 2002

Let us retract the foreskin of ignorance and apply the wirebrush of enlightenment.
Yam Slacker
"To serve and protect..."

https://vtdigger.org/2021/09/07/fbi-opens-criminal-probe-into-3-troopers-over-fake-covid-19-vaccination-cards/ posted:

Three Vermont State Police troopers out of the Shaftsbury barracks have resigned and a criminal probe is underway to determine whether they may have violated federal law by making fake Covid-19 vaccination cards.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

MadJackal posted:

There's enough data in to start making comments about Delta with more nuance than "IT'S GOING TO KILL EVERYONE!"

Delta is a game changer on top of a game changer, and everything is made more complex by the hyper party/socioeconomic/demographic splits in the US.

Let's take two states with two different generally different approaches to COVID: New York and Florida.

NYC has gone through three distinct waves of positive cases, the latest coinciding with Delta.



The most surprising thing to me is that while this third wave is likely hitting somewhere in the ballpark of 60-90% unvaccinated, we aren't seeing that tidal wave of deaths like back in March and April of 2020.



I'm going with the idea that the vast, vast majority of the most vulnerable elderly are vaccinated, leading to very few deaths. The positive cases I've personally seen have been in clusters of relatively young (<50 years old) uniformly unvaccinated families where Delta hits every last person. This is in contrast to COVID wildtype, which had a funny tendency to occasionally avoid family members in the same household in my anecdotal experience.



And for a city of 8,804,190, having a current hospitalized head count of 56 is nothing short of amazing considering my one team alone on Long Island was taking care of 20-something COVID cases 18 months ago.



Now Florida.

Cases are the highest they've ever been.



The wildfire spread is killing the most vulnerable at the highest rates they've ever seen.



Vaccination rates are surprisingly high considering this chaos.



It's not like NYC is majority N95 or elastomeric wearers. Dicknosing above cloth masks or flat out non-masking on even the subway is happening with a good ~1 in 4 people I see. Even with the city's "vaccine mandate" for indoor dining, none of the places I went to last weekend checked for proof. So what is going on in Florida that makes it special? Did COVID just finally breach into the most vulnerable areas and is taking its inevitable toll?

I think the CDC can no longer make blanket statements about good recommendations for the entire nation. The regional differences in prior outbreaks, vaccination uptake, and personal tolerance/adherence with PPE is wildly different and shouldn't be the same everywhere, and are being largely ignored regardless.

MJ — thanks for collating these and sharing your own experience. I'm a little confused by your post — you said up top we could start making some statements, but concluded by asking questions about Florida? Or were these statements + a concluding question?

I am also unsure as how to explain Florida. I know I've seen some charts — I don't have them on hand at the moment unfortunately — where Florida is a huge outlier on the standard trend line between one axis of covid cases and one axis of vaccination rates (i.e., Florida is far and away the most vaccinated state with the highest rates of covid). It's pretty remarkable.

https://twitter.com/vincentrk/status/1434857581164601350?s=21

Other factors beyond vaccination rates and age are obviously

* obesity and other comorbidities besides age
* density of population
* NPI adoption
* capacity to treat

I could imagine that Florida has more density, higher obesity, worse mask wearing, etc, than many chuddy states, but not moreso than, say, Texas. So I'm confused too...

I guess the other factor is — didn't Florida roll back its NPIs earlier than basically any other state in the spring? Could a broader base have been more deeply seeded, among comparably dense states with similar population characteristics?

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin
Sky Lava?
loving doomers.

Insanite
Aug 30, 2005

HootTheOwl posted:

Sky Lava?
loving doomers.

The skyline was beautiful on fire,


Bizarre Echo posted:

I've been thinking through a lot of this as well. I'm still masked up and distancing as best possible, but my institution just held the first football game of the season, and my boss is trying to eliminate remote work. Meanwhile, our main hospital just cancelled all non-critical care to devote resources to intensive care. My office is mostly keeping to masking, more or less because I and a few others have enough social cachet that we're able to set norms.

Look, I get it. I did everything right, and when I hear people choosing to pretend like the pandemic isn't a thing, I hear the DOOM music kick in. The posters who said that state- and federal-level interventions are needed are absolutely right, because widespread problems like pandemics need widespread, organized responses. But the lack of organized response doesn't absolve me of my own responsibilities to the people around me.

Stimperor, I get what you were saying about feeling like you're the crazy one because I've been struggling with it too. I've had two thoughts rattling around in my head; "the rain doesn't stop because I don't want to be wet anymore" and "do I need to roll these dice?" I'm soaked, but that doesn't change that what I'm doing does impact the people around me. If I choose to roll dice and contract COVID, I'm increasing risk of people who may be in a worse place to deal with it. Like, think of the level of contempt it would take for me to endanger my person who just got out of surgery, or the one who is taking medications that knocks out their immune system, because I just couldn't be without college football? How would I even explain that to their faces? "lol sorry, your well-being is less important to me than a night out?" It's not.

You keep doing it for another fifteen months, or thirty months, or whatever, because your partner is worth it. The contrarian assholes are infuriating and them getting their comeuppance would be viscerally satisfying, but it's not the point. The point is keeping her safe.

This is a lovely post. This is where I'm at, too. I'm not compromising my morals in response to gaslighting or the same late capitalism that has screwed up so much else.

Insanite fucked around with this message at 14:28 on Sep 8, 2021

Lampsacus
Oct 21, 2008

Phigs posted:

And New Zealand is doing better because its even further behind
wooo hell yeah we are.

One thing, amongst many, I'm finding really bizarre about this pandemic is how disseminated the information is.

There is no single source with cohesive information as to what is going on. You might say, check out the Google covid pages.. but like, they've all been proven to be both underrepresenting cfrs+deaths and by their nature not being able to account for all numbers. So we don't even really know how many have been infected, and how many have passed because of covid. And as far as I can scrape together, it looks like in a few variants time all vaccines will be rendered ineffective. So that's what - a year.

The global effort to give everybody variant booster shots every six months from now in aeternum feels rather outside our capabilities. It feels like we're in for a really long haul with this thing. Like doomer, manydeaths manywinters sort of horrible near-term future. I'm aware this train of thought intersects with doomerism but, like cc, it feels ---- I know.

I've figured out what I'm trying to say. It feels like we're in year 2 of a 10-15 year pandemic and we don't even have the social infrastructure to acknowledge this en masse.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Lampsacus posted:

And as far as I can scrape together, it looks like in a few variants time all vaccines will be rendered ineffective. So that's what - a year.

Maybe stop scraping so hard, because there is nothing to support that. Definitely possible tho!

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Lampsacus posted:

I've figured out what I'm trying to say. It feels like we're in year 2 of a 10-15 year pandemic and we don't even have the social infrastructure to acknowledge this en masse.

This is a big part of "letting go of what you can't control", for me. Sometime in the last year, I can't remember if there was a particular "eureka!" moment, but sometime in the last year it became clear to me that this is going to be A Thing in Our Lives for like at least 5 years. I'm looking at it from the perspective of thinking about how lucky I am to have the things I have (miracle vaccines, fully vaccinated family and extended family, a job, a place to live, etc) and also find it helps to imagine how much worse it could have been if we didn't have these vaccines or we were living through the Spanish Flu or gently caress even living through covid in the 90s.

Keeping perspective and setting very low expectations are helping me make it.

Zarin
Nov 11, 2008

I SEE YOU

How are u posted:

find it helps to imagine how much worse it could have been if we didn't have these vaccines or we were living through the Spanish Flu or gently caress even living through covid in the 90s.

Keeping perspective and setting very low expectations are helping me make it.

This is something I keep coming back to - how long was the Spanish Flu a thing? I mean, obviously, society recovered - I clearly didn't have any sort of true idea about what a pandemic looked like on the ground for the duration. Nobody talked about 'em, no old people hauntedly speaking of it.

Of course, I realize the diseases have different profiles and whatnot, but I'm real curious at a high level what that one looked like, how long it lasted, etc.

But the point is that we made it through it. We'll make it through this one, too. Yeah, it might be a few years, but then a few years after that we'll look back on it and be like "huh, wow, that was wild, eh?"

It's hard now, because we don't know where the end is, it's all unknown, and it's easy to get caught up catastrophizing about how long it'll be. But it WILL end - every other one before now has.

mediaphage
Mar 22, 2007

Excuse me, pardon me, sheer perfection coming through

Zarin posted:

This is something I keep coming back to - how long was the Spanish Flu a thing? I mean, obviously, society recovered - I clearly didn't have any sort of true idea about what a pandemic looked like on the ground for the duration. Nobody talked about 'em, no old people hauntedly speaking of it.

Of course, I realize the diseases have different profiles and whatnot, but I'm real curious at a high level what that one looked like, how long it lasted, etc.

But the point is that we made it through it. We'll make it through this one, too. Yeah, it might be a few years, but then a few years after that we'll look back on it and be like "huh, wow, that was wild, eh?"

It's hard now, because we don't know where the end is, it's all unknown, and it's easy to get caught up catastrophizing about how long it'll be. But it WILL end - every other one before now has.

britannica posted:

The influenza pandemic of 1918–19, also called the Spanish flu, lasted between one and two years.

The pandemic occurred in three waves, though not simultaneously around the globe. In the Northern Hemisphere, the first wave originated in the spring of 1918, during World War I. Although it remains uncertain where the virus first emerged, the earliest cases in the United States were detected in March among military personnel stationed at Camp Funston in Fort Riley, Kansas. Movement of troops probably helped spread the virus throughout the U.S. and Europe during the late spring. By summer the virus had reached parts of Russia, Africa, Asia, and New Zealand. This first wave was comparatively mild and had begun to die down in some areas, but a second, more lethal wave began about August or September 1918. During this wave, pneumonia often developed quickly, with patients usually dying just two days after experiencing the first symptoms of the flu. As social distancing measures were enforced, the second wave began to die down toward the end of November. Once those measures were relaxed, however, a third wave began in the winter and early spring of 1919. Though not as deadly as the second wave, the third wave still claimed a large number of lives. By summer the virus had run its course in many parts of the world, but some historians suggest that there was a fourth wave in winter 1920, though it was far less virulent.

jetz0r
May 10, 2003

Tomorrow, our nation will sit on the throne of the world. This is not a figment of the imagination, but a fact. Tomorrow we will lead the world, Allah willing.



Lampsacus posted:

wooo hell yeah we are.

One thing, amongst many, I'm finding really bizarre about this pandemic is how disseminated the information is.

There is no single source with cohesive information as to what is going on. You might say, check out the Google covid pages.. but like, they've all been proven to be both underrepresenting cfrs+deaths and by their nature not being able to account for all numbers. So we don't even really know how many have been infected, and how many have passed because of covid. And as far as I can scrape together, it looks like in a few variants time all vaccines will be rendered ineffective. So that's what - a year.

The global effort to give everybody variant booster shots every six months from now in aeternum feels rather outside our capabilities. It feels like we're in for a really long haul with this thing. Like doomer, manydeaths manywinters sort of horrible near-term future. I'm aware this train of thought intersects with doomerism but, like cc, it feels ---- I know.

I've figured out what I'm trying to say. It feels like we're in year 2 of a 10-15 year pandemic and we don't even have the social infrastructure to acknowledge this en masse.

To be completely honest, try the cspam thread. It's legitimately one of the best sources for collected covid information that isn't trying to gaslight you. And massive amounts of shitposting. It's also one of the few places on the internet that won't tell that it's actually a GOOD thing to infect every child in America with a covid. Highly recommended for anyone experiencing the cognitive stress of the media being in full denial of the existence of covid while every hospital in your state is in diversion.


You're right. Delta is not the final form of covid. And based on delta being so contagious, and prevalent worldwide, the next major variant will probably be an evolution of delta. As of right now, vaccines and boosters are very effective, and no variant is going to gain the ability to teleport through n95 or p100 rated filters. So on an individual level, you can mitigate covid pretty well, even if western society as a whole completely gave up on trying. That's better than climate change, can't mitigate that at an individual level at all!

feedmegin
Jul 30, 2008

MadJackal posted:

It's not like NYC is majority N95 or elastomeric wearers. Dicknosing above cloth masks or flat out non-masking on even the subway is happening with a good ~1 in 4 people I see. Even with the city's "vaccine mandate" for indoor dining, none of the places I went to last weekend checked for proof. So what is going on in Florida that makes it special? Did COVID just finally breach into the most vulnerable areas and is taking its inevitable toll?

I mean. Florida is incredibly famous for being stuffed full of old people, isn't it? You'd probably want to compare demographics to see how much that's affecting things, on top of everything else.

jetz0r
May 10, 2003

Tomorrow, our nation will sit on the throne of the world. This is not a figment of the imagination, but a fact. Tomorrow we will lead the world, Allah willing.



feedmegin posted:

I mean. Florida is incredibly famous for being stuffed full of old people, isn't it? You'd probably want to compare demographics to see how much that's affecting things, on top of everything else.

The most hilarious part of the Florida numbers is that these are their suppressed numbers. Even with removing testing centers, re-categorizing deaths, withholding data, and other general fuckery, they're STILL reporting numbers this bad.

covidforever
Sep 8, 2021

by Pragmatica
Maybe this belongs in a different thread but how long and to what extent are people in this thread going to obsess over COVID for the foreseeable future?

I mean part of growing up for me was accepting we have zero control over the world around us. And no matter how much people on these forums rage about anything from universal healthcare, to high rent prices, to student loans, none of us have a single ounce of capacity to change any of those things and all that raging and discussion has made zero impact on changing anything at all for anyone anywhere at anytime.

COVID seems here to stay. If it is what are you going to do? My sister did not leave her house to even to go to a park for the first 12 months of the pandemic. She did not clean her house or maintain her yard. She lives in a rural area in the middle of nowhere. She became extremely paranoid about something that she had little chance of contracting in most cases if she had taken basic precautions. She became extremely depressed. She nearly killed herself worrying about something that while serious for many people did not inherently present any kind of massive danger for her.

There are people in the CSPAM thread and this thread who will continue to never leave their house. They will do it because some people will not vaccinate. They will do it because some people will not wear masks. Those people will never change. You have no power to change them. The only way to change those people would literally be to kill them, and even if society made the decision to do that it would not be because of anything you posted here.

Yet for some people on this forum you are going to let the decisions of those antivaxxers and antimaskers dictate every single piece of your very short lives. You will not go outside even to a park. You will not do anything you did previous to the pandemic. You will live in a state of paranoia over something that while being a very real threat to some of the population, is not going to go away anytime soon.

You can go on and on about how evil capitalism is, and sure it's evil. But you can only shut down everything for so long, even in a socialist society. Commerce and activity are not inherently capitalism. They had stores in Soviet Russia and Hotels too. They had vacations and music concerts and movies. Not everything you do in your day to day life is attributed to capitalism.

I'm not saying COVID can't be controlled. It can be controlled. I'm not saying that our political model does not allow it to be controlled. There are dictatorships that have controlled COVID. There are Democracies that have controlled COVID. There are Communist and Socialist nations that have controlled COVID. There are Capitalist nations that have controlled COVID.

But what allows a nation to control COVID comes down to culture and the US does not have a culture that will let us control COVID. Culture can not be changed overnight. I would argue it in fact would take many generations to bring the US to a place where we had a culture that allowed us to control COVID.

I am not saying we can't decrease personal risk, or collective risk, or make smart or bad decisions. But how long will you let the constant fear of something like COVID dictate everything in your life. How long would you be willing to never ever travel anywhere again? How long would be willing to not leave your house? Or never ever say go to a concert (if that is something you enjoy) Or go to a bar, or a restaurant?

And I agree with many views in this thread COVID may mutate at any point in time to a much deadlier form that can overcome the vaccine. I have no doubt about that. Wouldn't the smart thing be to try and live some of your life before that does happen? Life is very short. We can all die for any moment at any time. It could be COVID, it could be a million other things.

COVID will continue spreading whether you decide to try to go back and do some of the things you did before COVID or not. There is nothing anyone in this thread or on this forums or in the entire world can do to stop this fact. The antivaxx and antimask sentiment are too strong. Like I said, barr killing those people there is nothing that we can do to stop people from not vaccinating and continuing to spread COVID and further mutating the virus to new forms that are much more dangerous.

Even if you had the power and capability to kill all the antivaxxers that would likely generate a situation that would increase the spread of COVID further (a civil war or world war).

You have many options in life. But if this is year 2 of a 15 year pandemic, and you are in your 30s, you are more likely to die than live in a pandemic free world afterwards. So why would you be limiting yourself now when the people you hate and despise and are causing the pandemic won't? Your single action is not going to stop the pandemic nor be enough to significantly impact spread whether you like it or not. You are not a God. You are not that important. We will all die. Some sooner than others. After 30 your life is all downhill and you are hurtling towards death the only question is when. So why live the rest of your very short and unimportant existence in constant anguish and fear of something you truly have zero control over? You have been vaccinated. You wear a mask. Try to buy life insurance. Try to stay safe. But don't the actions of others dictate your own decisions with the little life you have left. We don't have 15 years left of comfortable existence left on this earth in the first place given global warming.

I was hospitalized with COVID last year and I nearly died. I have lived in fear and not going out and being afraid of meeting with people for more than a year. I don't know if that is something I can do for 13 more years.

Zarin
Nov 11, 2008

I SEE YOU

mediaphage posted:


<Spanish Flu information>


Geez, it seems like it was just over so fast. :allears:

Different virus, different world, but still.

Zarin
Nov 11, 2008

I SEE YOU

I'm intensely curious who your main is lol

I'm gonna go with OOCC

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

droll
Jan 9, 2020

by Azathoth

covidforever posted:

You have many options in life. But if this is year 2 of a 15 year pandemic, and you are in your 30s, you are more likely to die than live in a pandemic free world afterwards. So why would you be limiting yourself now when the people you hate and despise and are causing the pandemic won't? Your single action is not going to stop the pandemic nor be enough to significantly impact spread whether you like it or not. You are not a God. You are not that important. We will all die. Some sooner than others. After 30 your life is all downhill and you are hurtling towards death the only question is when. So why live the rest of your very short and unimportant existence in constant anguish and fear of something you truly have zero control over? You have been vaccinated. You wear a mask. Try to buy life insurance. Try to stay safe. But don't the actions of others dictate your own decisions with the little life you have left. We don't have 15 years left of comfortable existence left on this earth in the first place given global warming.

I was hospitalized with COVID last year and I nearly died. I have lived in fear and not going out and being afraid of meeting with people for more than a year. I don't know if that is something I can do for 13 more years.

There were reports of a pre-print of a study, of DNA in Asia showing a COVID-like virus 25000 years ago took much longer than 15 years. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/ancient-coronavirus-epidemic-east-asia-dna-covid

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply