UKMT March 2020 - Bojo got the Covo - The Something Awful Forums

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT March 2020 - Bojo got the Covo

Who is your first pick in the deputy leadership race? This poll is closed.
R. Allin-Khan	6	1.60%
R. Burgon	80	21.33%
D. Butler	72	19.20%
A. Rayner	35	9.33%
I. Murray	5	1.33%
P. Flaps	177	47.20%
Total:	375 votes

[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

it's all over england now:
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1234110794687819777

# ¿ Mar 1, 2020 14:39

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 18:06

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

well it's everywhere now and likes rain
https://twitter.com/RadioClydeNews/status/1234199741531070464

# ¿ Mar 1, 2020 20:47

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

whoever is in charge of the bbc one programme informing the public about the coronavirus needs to be fired

they have a health professional saying:
- it's still a matter of if the virus will spread in the uk (we already have documented cases of it spreading with no known origin)
- we need to keep perspective, the flu has killed more people so far (uh........................)
- avoid face masks they're needed by health professionals and need to be disposed of after use (correct, for once)
- don't worry about mail/packages, the virus just survives on hard surfaces for a few hours (umm.. we have no evidence of that, the paper on sars-equivalent viruses surviving on stainless steel at 4c were up to 28 days)

they're not being proactive at all and are still trying to react and contain it way too late to avoid panic

# ¿ Mar 2, 2020 20:46

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

fuctifino posted:

My limited understanding of the virus (and please correct me if I'm wrong) is that it is contagious for up to 2 weeks before any symptoms appear, and also for a period of time after the symptoms disappear. Younger people are often barely affected, just having a minor sniffle. Some people can show no symptoms themselves, but carry the virus and are able to spread it.

Unless you can keep the front door locked for a few months, I don't think there's any way of stopping this from becoming a 1918-like pandemic (statistically, we're overdue one). People can't afford to quarantine themselves, especially now that many people work hand-to-mouth on zero hour contracts. Add to that limited access to subsidised healthcare for those in China and the US amongst other places, this is unstoppable. As it was pointed out to me earlier today, the containment of this virus is limited to the weakest links in our chain, and capitalism has created many weak links.

I got repeatedly sneezed and coughed upon by a toddler the other day at the supermarket checkout, from above, as the mother swung the child from left to right at her hip. I was stuck in my wheelchair with a person behind, so I couldn't even back away from the splatterings if I wanted to. The checkout area was covered in the kid's mucus and saliva. He'd even splatted the chip and pin keypad. I don't blame the kid, as he was really ill. I don't blame the mother either, as she probably had nobody to care for the sick child whilst she shopped. That's the society we live in.

I rarely fall ill due to an over-active immune system, but I've had cold like symptoms for the past 3 days (luckily not typical coronavirus symptoms)... but it just goes to show how it's impossible to contain anything in our current society. That kid could have potentially infected 100+ customers after me as they used the bagging area.

Good luck, and stock up on food + essentials.

P.S. I quietly bowed out of the discord because my own mental health struggles was potentially affecting others in the channel. As soon as I'm re-balanced, I'll be back. Miss you guys.

yeah this is all correct which is why we need to reduce community<->community contact and get everyone as asocial as possible to slow down the spread. most people will end up infected it's about making sure the hospitals aren't overwhelmed

# ¿ Mar 2, 2020 21:13

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

Bardeh posted:

My wife has just told me that one of her coworkers was at the hotel in Tenerife that got locked down last week. She was allowed to come back, and went into work yesterday. We have no idea if she was tested or not before she was allowed to come back, and she didn't tell anyone until afterwards...yikes

um when was the confirmed case isolated from the other people in the hotel? with 2-14 days incubation she should be self-isolating to be safe. there's a reason the uk rightfully did another 14 day quarantine after people got back from that cruise

# ¿ Mar 2, 2020 22:02

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

2 more confirmed with covid-19 in scotland - ayrshire and grampian.1 had came back from italy, another had been in contact with a previous confirmed case - but not the ones in scotland

# ¿ Mar 4, 2020 14:21

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

Jedit posted:

First case of COVID-19 in Grampian region was found today. No word on where, but I'd bet money he or she is just down the road from me now at ARI.

yup that's 3 in scotland now:
- 1 in Tayside - returned from Italy:
https://twitter.com/ConnorGillies/status/1235242152399171585
- 1 in Ayrshire
- 1 in Grampian

of the ayrshire/grampian pair 1 returned from italy, and another is linked to another confirmed case (but not in scotland, so odds are england and they found this via chasing known contacts)

expect this in a few weeks and for it to ramp up from there:
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235250175284834305

we should be closing down schools to slow the spread (and mass gatherings immediately imo):
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204453315358722

for an idea of how the virus has been spreading gene sequencing gives the world a lot of information that the carriers wouldn't know:
https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/1235255507268534277

# ¿ Mar 4, 2020 19:06

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

thespaceinvader posted:

If nothing else, Covid-19 might be the thing that finally makes everyone seriously consider WASHING THEIR loving HANDS and ACTUALLY STAYING HOME WHEN THEY'RE ILL.

Doubtful, but you can hope.

there's going to be a lot of hard lessons in risk management from people going "it's just the flu"

sebzilla posted:

So 3% mortality in Italy? Yikes.

the more disturbing thing to keep in mind is this is without a significant part of the population infected and thus with hospitals operating as effectively as they can.

i've went through ONS + NHS data and it's better no one really knows the gory stats details even under extremely optimistic conditions. did you know nhs england's critical care beds normally float around 80% capacity? at all times of the year?

Darth Walrus posted:

Yeah, it's an almost perfect quarantine-buster that's deadlier than regular flu. It's not the most lethal or infectious disease out there, but there's unusually little we can do to stop it spreading at that same steady rate.

It's also worth remembering that 'deadlier' usually also means 'more incapacitating'. The economy is the means by which a society functions and keeps its members alive and comfortable. I don't know what the incapacitation rate of COVID-19 is, but it's probably quite a lot higher than 2%, and the economy will be seriously, seriously strained if even a tenth of the workforce are incapable of working for two weeks or more. Likewise, the more hospital beds it takes up, the less room there is for people with other health problems.

covid-19 is ~20% require hospitalisation and a quarter of them need intensive care. even if we wish we're missing half of the asymptomatic cases that is far beyond any country's capabilities to handle

Wiggly Wayne DDS fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Mar 4, 2020

# ¿ Mar 4, 2020 20:43

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

uk gov: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

quote:

As of 7am on 6 March 2020, 20,338 people have been tested in the UK, of which 20,175 were confirmed negative and 163 were confirmed as positive. One patient who tested positive for COVID-19 has died.

scotland: https://www.gov.scot/coronavirus-covid-19/

quote:

A total of 1525 Scottish tests have concluded. Of these:
1514 tests were confirmed negative
11 tests were positive
code:
Health Board	Number of Positive cases
Tayside				1
Ayrshire & Arran		1
Forth Valley			2
Greater Glasgow and Clyde	1
Grampian			3
Fife				2
Lothian				1

scotland's confirmed count has gone:
Mar 1: 1
Mar 4: 3 (+2)
Mar 5: 6 (+3)
Mar 6: 11 (+5)

# ¿ Mar 6, 2020 15:39

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

OwlFancier posted:

Generally I think it's supposed to double every six or so days.

it's all rather academic and depends on the preventive measures being taken alongside cultural differences

i've said it before but when this hits football fans it's too late, they need to stop crowds in stadiums yesterday

and this is a tad concerning:
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1236668072016125952

# ¿ Mar 8, 2020 16:26

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

yeah uh, i don't just mean football alone. all movement needs to be minimised and people need to start accepting this in the coming weeks

the issue isn't even local matches, but all the buses of people touring every match no matter the weather causing cross-city spread

# ¿ Mar 8, 2020 17:32

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

goddamnedtwisto posted:

My point is that it would be pointless window-dressing that wouldn't save a single life, and also that the atmosphere at the London Stadium is sterile enough that you could probably do surgery on it.

no saving lives isn't pointless window-dressing, how do you suppose this won't save any lives? for context here's how italy's is handling the rush on their healthcare:

and here's singapore data on how long it lasts and why a single PCR test isn't good enough:

and school closures work, here's 1918 data from the us on closing early - same principle for any public gathering
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204453315358722
for daily updates keep up to date on this channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg

# ¿ Mar 8, 2020 18:46

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

319 cases, about the same number Italy had two weeks ago. I wonder if we're gonna try a lockdown or the governments just gonna say "gently caress it"

Mother's day in two week's time too so expect everyone to wriggle out of lockdowns and kill their elderly mothers off

there's a press conference just ending on that, it's entirely "gently caress it" and they're throwing lives away

seriously watch it all, i can't put all the insanity of the q&a section into writing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1b-JdeRKyY

as a sample: they seem to think there's a limit on the number of people you can infect so banning large gatherings is useless

# ¿ Mar 9, 2020 18:24

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

welp italy
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1237426680781774850

# ¿ Mar 10, 2020 18:16

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

official uk gov tracker
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1237437814872121351
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

# ¿ Mar 10, 2020 19:00

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1237503494325559296
maybe we'll see some proactive measures now

# ¿ Mar 10, 2020 23:27

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

Darth Walrus posted:

https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1237701021813612544?s=21

This seems promising.

ah would these be the brain trust who think we'll hit the peak in just under 2 weeks? i mean that may be true for the cabinet...

and re: pandemic bond there was talk a long time ago that the trigger isn't WHO, but confirmed # of deaths outside of the initial continent

# ¿ Mar 11, 2020 12:54

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

Saros posted:

That particular comment would be the deputy heath officer for England - I might have got the exact title wrong.

yes but i gather they got that comically wrong information from someone else

# ¿ Mar 11, 2020 14:04

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

A member of Nadine Dorries� staff has tested positive for coronavirus, a party source has confirmed.

# ¿ Mar 11, 2020 15:23

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

20% will be off work, many in hospital, and most of the rest will be too scared to leave the house

The economy isn't going to be "impacted", it's going to die

and every day they ignore the issue or only put forward half-measures is going to make it worse

# ¿ Mar 11, 2020 15:58

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

Private Speech posted:

What about antivirals? I remember reading some will be finishing trials within weeks, so if widespread infection gets delayed for a few months that could potentially work.

Not that the government is doing anything to bring that about.

antivirals would reduce the severity of symptoms but the patients still need hospital care - we don't have the capacity for what is going to come. the hopes at the moment are remdesivir with a great trial underway in china initiated on feb 6th and due to report back by the end of april. we don't know anything until then and anyone saying x antiviral is effective is talking out of their arse as that was first put up for testing and we're still waiting.

the most optimistic figures at the moment are 12% of people are hospitalised. that is why we need to make sure people are infected over a long period of time and not within two weeks - the system will not handle it even across a year

to be clear this will not be over in 2 weeks. we are heading into the italy scenario then, and it will ramp up over a month or two before we touch the peak which will continue for weeks...

# ¿ Mar 11, 2020 16:42

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

well it's now officially a pandemic
https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1237777021742338049
and early italy figures are bleak
https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1237777771369119744

# ¿ Mar 11, 2020 17:34

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

it's about slowing down the infection rate, not preventing it entirely

we need the country to go into actual lockdown for months

# ¿ Mar 11, 2020 17:58

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

first scottish community transmission (no known origin), found via the enhanced surveillance scheme (aka they were in a hospital already...)

# ¿ Mar 11, 2020 18:21

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

XMNN posted:

it's the "flatten the curve" bit, I think, after you've given up on keeping it to a limited outbreak

I'd hope this is when they finally pull their heads out of their arses and start recommending self isolation for respiratory symptoms and social distancing, if they don't go the whole hog and lock everything down

I should really ask my mum about it at some point

from the sounds of it they're still committed to half-measures like only telling people who are elderly/pre-existing conditions to try social distancing

# ¿ Mar 12, 2020 01:38

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

they're not really in the mood to rush things though, draft up some legislation for next week we've got plenty of time

# ¿ Mar 12, 2020 01:58

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

boris is about to give a speech soon so enjoy

# ¿ Mar 12, 2020 17:36

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

my favourite part is reasoning for not doing school closures: knock-on effects like parents staying home. that's the entire point really.
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204453315358722
also lol at a week off sick now being pushed by 4 of our CMOs when you'll be out for 2-3 weeks and infectious for a bit after you feel better

# ¿ Mar 12, 2020 18:53

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1238240502505508867
hopefully they cancel everything, decision to be made tomorrow morning

# ¿ Mar 13, 2020 00:32

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

Olewithmilk posted:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1238366264747270144?s=20

The difference between 40 million people having the disease and everyone getting it is ~1-3 days depending on the infection rate, I hope everyone takes the eventual quarantine order seriously & immediately!

they don't have the ability to divine when to put these immediate quarantine orders into effect. the confirmation rate is going up 30%/day, but that's based off of how many people we test. you can't make a high risk wager time-critical decision on low-accuracy time-delayed information based off of a sample of the population. it's part of the reason for large scale delay measures to be put into place early: slow it down enough so we can understand the spread and scale our measures up.

honestly they need to be making field hospitals yesterday and reminding people what happened with the spanish flu - there'll be initial panic but the public need to know yesterday

# ¿ Mar 13, 2020 16:16

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

oxford_town posted:

Sorry. Here is some actual good news: remdesivir looks like it might be a promising treatment for COVID-19 although data is still limited.

there's an ongoing clinical study in china that started on february 6th and obviously the pharma company wants money so they're pushing headlines before the data exists. we'll find out near the end of april on how effective it is in practice

goddamnedtwisto posted:

https://twitter.com/Fujyno/status/1238155063283142656

# ¿ Mar 13, 2020 17:09

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

Qwertycoatl posted:

Has anyone in government, or any journalist, actually said "our plan is for 40m to be infected, the fatality rate is 1-5%, therefore we plan for between 400k and 2M deaths", or is it just left to the public to join the dots?

they've said worst case is 80% infected, and tried to bullshit a fatality rate of under 1%. that is never happening even if hospitals cope with the load with zero supply issues
meanwhile
https://twitter.com/scotgov/status/1238497762863386631

# ¿ Mar 13, 2020 17:12

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

oxford_town posted:

the PR strategy is working for their bottom line!!!

Yes you're absolutely right, there are no real conclusions that can be drawn until robust trial evidence is in (I think there are also remdesivir triallists being enrolled in the USA & a document I saw today suggests they will try to do it in UK ICUs too), but the brief was positivity, so....

yeah they're likely rushing trials but the one to look out for is A Phase 3 Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Multicenter Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Remdesivir in Hospitalized Adult Patients With Mild and Moderate 2019-nCoV Respiratory Disease.

quote:

Study Type : Interventional (Clinical Trial)
Estimated Enrollment : 308 participants
Allocation: Randomized
Intervention Model: Parallel Assignment
Masking: Quadruple (Participant, Care Provider, Investigator, Outcomes Assessor)
Primary Purpose: Treatment
Official Title: A Phase 3 Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Multicenter Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Remdesivir in Hospitalized Adult Patients With Mild and Moderate 2019-nCoV Respiratory Disease.
Actual Study Start Date : February 12, 2020
Estimated Primary Completion Date : April 10, 2020
Estimated Study Completion Date : April 27, 2020

e: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?term=SARS-CoV-2

Wiggly Wayne DDS fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Mar 13, 2020

# ¿ Mar 13, 2020 17:52

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

not entirely promising results for anyone betting on ECMO: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext
3 attempts leading to 3 failures, not a large sample ofc but it's not entirely promising

bit more data than the singapore image i'm used to looking at as well:

Wiggly Wayne DDS fucked around with this message at 18:49 on Mar 13, 2020

# ¿ Mar 13, 2020 18:07

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

Jel Shaker posted:

No you�re right, they�re hoping to get the bulk of cases/deaths now so in winter there isn�t a Coronavirus+flu m�lange and double the carnage for the few hospital beds

my favourite part of this is ignoring the isolation strategy also impacts the flu

# ¿ Mar 13, 2020 19:45

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

Nadine Dorries, a junior health minister in the UK�s government who tested positive for coronavirus earlier this week, says her mother has now been confirmed as having contracted the virus.

but who could have possibly foreseen this

# ¿ Mar 13, 2020 20:10

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

Communist Thoughts posted:

and afaik nobody ever got in trouble for aids killing people

e: is it just me or is the UK now no longer on the corona map

guess we're over it already

ya i saw that earlier but they keep messing with the map itself, maybe they were hoping to incorporate the UK's own data into it rather than continuing with their own

Nothingtoseehere posted:

You're only infectious a day or two before symptoms start IIRC, so if you stay home on the weekend you'll be fairly safe that Monday.

the answer is we don't know for sure, but there are signs you're infectious days before any symptoms appear, during, and possibly for a day or two after you feel fine

if you have any control over sickness guidelines near your work stick to 14 days, the 7 day line used by the gov isn't grounded in any data - if it is it'd be good if they shared it with the rest of the class

# ¿ Mar 13, 2020 22:28

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

u-turns into u-turns into u-turns
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1238593191919652864?s=20
https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1238591827449651205

# ¿ Mar 13, 2020 23:33

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

Answers Me posted:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1238582836279627779?s=21

Read the details of this. It�s completely loving unhinged

no that seems p reasonable even if holding the powers for 2 years is pushing it, the extra police powers were agreed upon last week iirc?

but yeah the death management part is the tip of the iceberg of morbid information the public is about to get exposed to
e: to be clear the school open one needs clarification, and care home is a mixture of eventually not enough staff/facilities so they'll have to lower statutory obligations for timelines, etc

Wiggly Wayne DDS fucked around with this message at 23:43 on Mar 13, 2020

# ¿ Mar 13, 2020 23:40

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 18:06

Wiggly Wayne DDS: Sep 11, 2010

forkboy84 posted:

There are still zero cases in the Highlands so please stay in your southern death holes, thanks in advance

https://www.gov.scot/coronavirus-covid-19/

code:

Health board		Positive cases
Ayrshire and Arran		6
Borders				5
Fife				6
Forth Valley			6
Grampian			9
Greater Glasgow and Clyde	31
Highland			1
Lanarkshire			10
Lothian				25
Shetland			11
Tayside				11

# ¿ Mar 14, 2020 15:27

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