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Bulky Bartokomous posted:Not today, Jade Helm, not today. Everyone update your PPRs for "Train attack". I can't seem to find a video of this.
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Apr 2, 2020 01:33
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shame on an IGA posted:5,800,000 new unemployment claims this week, watch the market close green. I dont think this is an entirely unexpected value to traders and should already be priced in. Edit: doesn't mean that traders arent still little kid soccer.
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Apr 2, 2020 14:41
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Re: masks These mask ideas are based not on science, but on principles. A sufficiently rigorous study to determine causality might be a tough sale, and I think I'd want a paper to randomly assign mask usage, not use observational data. You'd also want multiple testing points for all study personnel. Ideally, you'd find a way to test blind, and while no mask vs mask is impossible to do a blind study of, you could do a blind study of functional and sabotaged masks. To do this you have to be willing to: Utilize tests that arent sufficiently high enough I quantity to test all personnel with symptoms of a life threatening illness or healthcare workers. Encourage some participants to wear masks and others not to while doing your best to account for other alterations of behavior. Manufacture placebo masks. We're not getting this data any time soon. In the American medical tradition, treatment without evidence is frowned upon, and for good reason. In this case, people are recommending treatment on a hunch because of the timeframes and the lack of available evidence. That said, Ive heard (but have not consulted the literature) that nobody bothered collecting sufficiently robust data to demonstrate that brushing your teeth actually helps until surprisingly recently, so in reality we accept all sorts of treatment without evidence. Anecdotally, countries utilizing masks have reduced incidence of cases, but even if true how much is because everyone in public is wearing an advertisement that says, "hey douchebag, theres a pandemic going on, stay home"? And even if that is a cause, maybe that's sufficient reason enough? The US fought the idea at first to try and prevent hoarding, but there may have been some value to an ordinance that allowed cops to ticket dumb kids on beaches without masks.
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Apr 3, 2020 00:13
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Knives Amilli posted:Its funny how the pentagon/combatant commander brass hated Obama for mirco managing them after a near decade of cowboying it up under W. Many may have, but also know that you only get to die on one hill.
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Apr 3, 2020 00:15
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Xakura posted:Not true, and why "evidence based medicine" is such a problematic term. You can't destructively test humans, you can't run a trial on whether, for instance, CPR works, vs just doing nothing. Which part of my terrible phone post is untrue? Are the conditions I set stricter than what is necessary? Or the overall gist of making calls based on poo poo science? Pretty sure I meandered all the hell over in that post and failed to make a cogent point.
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Apr 3, 2020 01:56
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joat mon posted:He indirectly contributed to the death of 8 of his children, but in the normal use of the word, probably just the crippling of Rosemary. (Which establishes the colossal shitbag part quite handily, without the need for tarting things up) All parents are causally responsible for the deaths of their children. Your actions just affect the timing.
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Apr 6, 2020 22:51
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Here we at least see someone acting consistent with their own statements. As frustrated as I have been with this response, in the spirit refusing the sword of the vanquished, I would like to offer two notes about in regards to Former-Acting Secretary Modly. One. Modly was between hosed and a hard place as soon as the memo went out, much like CAPT Crozier was in a similar situation. Just like CAPT Crozier was going to be investigated whether it was because his Sailors died, or because he did what he thought he had to in order to keep them from dying, the outcome was set when that article got ran. That Modly didn't handle it to our expectations is, in some regards, a public manifestation of events we do not have access to. I imagine he wishes he did things differently. Two. Modly, as acting Secretary of the Navy, appeared to take his role as a communicator with the Navy seriously. I know nobody gives a poo poo about things like the SECNAV vectors or will know how much he helped or hindered a refocus on training and especially secondary education within the Navy was actually his contribution, but hopefully some of the initiatives he put in place to improve Navy education opportunities do not wither on the vine without his input. The Navy is an organization that's happy to let the chain of command be the primary method information sharing, and non-operational information in the Navy moves at the rate of one tier per meeting. One week from SECNAV to CNO, one week from CNO to TYCOM, one week from TYCOM to Squadron, one week from Squadron to CO and so on. That can't persist in an effective 21st century department that espouses democratic values. I believe he understood this fact and that he acted on it. I hope the next appointee does as well.
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Apr 8, 2020 00:01
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Mr. Nice! posted:211 users banned as of this post and the number keeps rising Nothing to worry about, it's still a fraction of the accounts that get banned by all sorts of preventable bans. Theres no need to stop posting. You dont stop posting because copchat goes crazy in the CE thread, do you?
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Apr 8, 2020 19:02
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Estimated R0 is weird because it includes environmental data. So an estimated R0 for a disease outbreak in nowhere Nevada while everyone is locked in their homes is less than than the estimated R0 for the same disease in a highly dense industrial town before its understood. This just tells us the transmission in Wuhan, assuming the methods are sound, was more explosive than originally thought. Since our current action and is based on a lot more data than that, including observing its effects globally and in the US, it mostly means that the original obfuscation was even more detrimental, and provides explanatory value on how it originally spread so quickly. Because the environment that you're probably concerned about is different, it doesn't mean much. The appropriate response or an assessment of its threat in any particular case isnt really altered.
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Apr 9, 2020 00:45
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That's a state-funded organization.
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Apr 9, 2020 15:47
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Brute Squad posted:All I get in my mailbox are bills and ads. You know Jesus would have been considered deranged by some standards.
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Apr 9, 2020 20:42
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Stultus Maximus posted:Who is also not Constitutionally eligible to be President. That's just like, your opinion man.
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Apr 9, 2020 23:25
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shame on an IGA posted:They kinda have, the republicans have been forcing them them blow a massive hole in their budget by overfunding their pension plan for about a decade as an effort to sabotage the one thing left people can point to and say the government does well I tried looking through GAO archives to get a feel of what was going on in 2006. There was a repurchasing restructure then that wouldn't have caused it on its own, but the Comptroller was looking at the numbers saying, "Yo, this poo poo is whack."* I'm guessing he got through to Congress, but only for about thirty minutes--long enough to go overboard on USPS, but nobody else and not long enough to stop 2008. Some claims from comptroller reports that look startling: Expected expenses doubling anticipated revenue by 2040. Debt per capita to exceed GDP per capita by 2030 https://www.gao.gov/assets/80/78143.pdf Percent of income as disposable had dipped below 0 (i.e. debt was required). https://www.gao.gov/assets/80/77527.pdf Things were looking pretty bad then, I wonder how things have gotten since then? https://www.gao.gov/about/press-center/press-releases/government_fiscal_path.htm PBGC who insures private-sector Defined Benefit pensions runs out of money for multi-employer benefits in 2025. Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund runs out in 2026 "Net cost totaled $5.1 trillion in fiscal year 2019" "The 2019 Financial Report also reported total liabilities of $26.9 trillion at the end of fiscal year 2019, an increase from $25.4 trillion at the end of fiscal year 2018" " Publicly held debt as a share of GDP peaked at 106 percent just after World War II (in 1946) but then fell rapidly [...] By the end of fiscal year 2019, the debt had climbed to 79 percent of GDP. By comparison, debt has averaged 46 percent of GDP since 1946. If current trends continue, the debt as a share of GDP in 2050 will be nearly twice its 1946 level and about four times its post-World War II average." Huh.
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Apr 11, 2020 07:50
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Milo and POTUS posted:I've had excellent luck with the postal service They may have tried to bring it back in 2013, but they were pretty much done in 2005.
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Apr 12, 2020 01:24
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Oxygenpoisoning posted:In graduate school I took a class on data visualization. The teacher was a neuroscientist and she made us read a bunch of studies on how people interpret graphs. There was a post earlier linking to a twitter post about an epidemiologist complaining about people using the wrong graphs and it being misleading. But I rea it and thought, that as a qualified epidemiologist, you are probably the least qualified person to determine what type of graphs are useful to a layman. Unless you're one of the subset to have so often removed yourself from the problem through writing for pop sci and have researched the literature on communications/psychology. To an expert, graph isnt just a supporting evidence, but potentially a descriptive tool that provides all sorts of information. Just like you dont trust your unqualified uncle with a welding torch, they may not see the valuable nuance a scientist may see.
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Apr 13, 2020 18:59
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:Different pill, you want fish respiratory agents. Edit: not a vanity search
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Apr 15, 2020 22:43
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It shouldn't take much of a reason to want to shout down Dr. Oz, but I think this is the article he was referencing. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30105-X/fulltext This is a more nuanced issue than he could present, or than i think we're giving credit for, because while 2-4% less deaths not compared to any sort of cost sounds worth it, those less deaths do have a cost. In lives also. That cost includes access to social assistance provided through schools such as food and healthcare to include immunizations and mental healthcare. Theres a concern for access specialized training for certain students. Physical is expected to drop, and the cost of that is something we can model--whats the cost of that over 10, 20, 40 years? quote:Following school closures amidst the west African Ebola epidemic, rates of child labour, neglect, sexual abuse, and adolescent pregnancies spiked, and many children never returned to school. quote:Children confined at home will struggle to achieve the WHO 24 h movement behaviour guidelines which recommend 60 minutes a day of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity for 5–17 year olds. This jeopardises not only young people's mental wellbeing and healthy weight status, but also increases the risk of establishing dangerous habits, such as increased screen time and snacking that can damage future cardiovascular and musculoskeletal health. None of this talks about the economic gap. Think real hard about what groups are going to be able to continue learning effectively in a remote environment with the least interruption. If you live in one of the methriddled corners of America and make less than a certain amount, the hope of escape for your children might be changing from 'engineering degree' to enlistling. If this takes a year and you turn 18 during this and your mom runs out of rent money and moves into a shelter, do you finish your degree when this is done, or take on more hours at the grocery store? What percent do all of these add up to? How many sexual assaults of children is equal to an outbreak of rubella? What's the exchange rate on lost futures? So yeah, gently caress Dr. Oz, but there are real costs to be weighed here.
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Apr 16, 2020 20:07
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Stultus Maximus posted:Even in Methmerica it's not rural West Africa Ebolatown. Sure, but the difference is likely nonzero. My frustration is really that I just read a page of goons split on whether he meant killing 2% of all kids or 2% of all Americans, because people didn't want to look up the publicly available article.
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Apr 16, 2020 20:23
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Retrowave Joe posted:The Coalition Help prevent the spread of deadly COVID and guarantee your own safety--enlist today and volunteer for the full conversion cyborg program!
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Apr 16, 2020 23:44
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Zamujasa posted:The statements of "It's just a 2-3% fatality rate" always just. blow my mind. Deja vu. The problem is Twitter. The problem is that people don't read the articles, and we especially don't read the peer reviewed math-heavy loving boring ones. And the problem is that the primary method of discussing complicated socio-economic ideas is by owning each other in quick snippets posted online and then taking them back to our socia media echo chambers to all smugly agree about how dumb or soft or evil those other guys are. And we're all doing it, myself included. That paper refers to a set of models for which the entire act of closing schools as reducing mortality across the UK 2-3%. So firstly, reopening schools, based on those models would be a value less than that, since that model assumed no action was taken. Second, the models have flipped so much I'm not super confident that those predictions are incredibly accurate. And third, the article the oft-quoted charlatan (Dr. Oz) is referring to: a. compares a number of socioeconomic factors and outcomes resulting from this that we don't have good data on, including reduced access to support structures that are often used to deliver necessary medical aid to children (i.e. vaccinations, mental health counseling), public screening for abuse (no teacher to ask where kids got those marks or why suddenly they don't want to talk in class), access to nutritional resources (school lunches) and access to specialized training for neuroatypical children, disabled children, and children with mental health conditions. b. cites how long term school closings in other situations have resulted in increases in child sexual assault, child labor, and students not returning to school afterwards. c. goes on to explain some of the advantages the closings will have on long term resilience and self-sufficiency for coming generations. and d. advocates that we include the outcomes and opinions of young people in our appraisal of the situation. I have no idea if Dr. Oz's point is appropriately nuanced. I suspect it isn't, but when a medium that tries to shovel ideas into the mouths of hungry consumers fast and quick (cable news), gets regurgitated and redistributed in a manner to reduce that nuance even further, I expect we're losing at least something of the picture. There is an important point to consider that at some point, the accrued risk from a lack of vaccinations, hampered education especially among the economically disenfranchised, reduced health outcomes that will spark comorbidity in future health crises, and the abuse of children may outweigh the risk avoided by continuing to keep schools closed. My intuition is that we're not there yet and we should not open schools yet. But eventually, not only may there be an outcome, but there will be if you close schools indefinitely. And while nobody (correction: few) argue to abolish public schools, we're not exactly clear on what an end state looks like. People on this subforum especially know what happens when nations get in giant resource-intensive engagements that result in human suffering and cost both treasure and lives without without defined objectives or exit strategies. If we don't include in our models these other costs, we may hurt or kill more people but feel good about it because we were doing something, instead of doing research.
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Apr 18, 2020 03:08
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shame on an IGA posted:hard starboard eh Holy poo poo.
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Apr 18, 2020 03:10
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Riot Carol Danvers posted:Not sure the point you're trying to make here. I hope he elaborates because I think I agree, but am not 100% sure where he was going. I think he's saying that TAD costs are over emphasized compared to a lot of the other insane expenses by the DoD. I'd be interested in data on that and might dig through GAO in a bit to try and find it.
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Apr 18, 2020 20:12
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Wasabi the J posted:SOAPY water cannons. Soapies are not authorized under social distancing.
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Apr 18, 2020 20:35
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Every time I try to reach a hand out for Chichevache it tends to come back all covered in poo poo, but here goes. If these people think it is a good idea to be where they are, or for the country to open up fully-as-before immediately, then they are victims of a failed education system and a predatory media on overdrive both profiting on their miseducation and being intentionally influenced by other states and non-state actors for political gain both in the US and abroad. Protests lack nuance. They are blunt instruments to express a general and unfocused discontent. The demagogues were ready. People concerned with their economic future are afraid because there is a very real threat to their ability to meet needs. Yes, other people (maybe even you) have suffered those same fears or inability to meet basic needs, and it feels good to see the tables turn. But you too have benefited while others suffer; pointing fingers at those you may safely publicly despise doesn't wash your hands of it, as you use electricity to read this forum post on your computer or your cell phone which you paid for with a job that, I bet if I took a poll, most of you got to via car. You're still part of the economic system that keeps you from having to gather your own food. The shouting and vitriol are attempts to distract. Please stop this oneupsmanship of hate. Edit: removed quote because I wasn't responding to the quoted post.
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Apr 20, 2020 09:10
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I read it in the general case, but I think the points he was trying to refute operated under the assumption of the specific. This is a conversation that had taken place across several pages, so at different times different people were probably talking about different things. I agree that we can tell the difference, and that Chichevache often posts in bad faith, but also the people that read the boards and pay visits to Lowtax are probably not regulars (except for NSA Wizard). But even if Chichevache wasn't talking about the general discourse, the check on our language might be valuable just to slow our spiral ever darker. piL fucked around with this message at 15:00 on Apr 20, 2020 |
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Apr 20, 2020 11:54
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Cugel the Clever posted:You say this as if it isn't 2020. Based on that alone, odds are that violent upheaval will break out imminently and Covid-infected refugees will try to swarm the border. I'm picturing the NK government falling apart and then after a week of everyone standing around waiting to be told what to do, the migrations come and the nights are punctuated with the occasional explosion as landmines are detonated by those trying to cross under cover of darkness D:
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Apr 21, 2020 07:30
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Milo and POTUS posted:I figured he would be on the side of protesters Nah, he's pro life.
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Apr 21, 2020 20:59
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Every emote should get an "Oh. Nevermind." version.
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Apr 22, 2020 15:24
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:He was the pimp that supplied Mike Pence. I feel like Mike Pence might be getting abused these days and could use a pimp to protect him.
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Apr 23, 2020 08:42
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NSA WIZARD posted:THE THINGS YOU PEOPLE LOOK AT ON VACATION ARE DISGUSTING I've been paying much more attention to the news since working from home. Checks out.
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Apr 23, 2020 22:38
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All of these ideas are technically correct. If most of the country injected bleach, the pandemic would end sooner, just at an unacceptable cost. If vitamin D deficiency is a factor, then sunshine will be useful, though not internally since 7- dehydrocholesterol is found in high concentration mostly within epithelial tissue.
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Apr 24, 2020 17:54
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shame on an IGA posted:Adding to this, he's also made fixing the loving VA a major plank Well there's your problem. The Department of Defense/Pentagon shouldn't be all that involved with veterans--they're going to focus on Defense. We should create a separate department to handle the affairs of veterans.
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Apr 24, 2020 19:57
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PeterCat posted:So, if he is dead, does it matter? Was he really in charge or is it a cabal of Generals who are really running things? I think the concern is that the cabal will start infighting and when that happens, things flare up in one of two ways. External agitation to show/cement power, or loss of internal control.
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Apr 25, 2020 04:07
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Poor Outlook posted:Bill Gates? Bill gates was probably a nerd who wanted revenge on the bullies. Wasn't he notoriously 'mean' or what they call today as patent trolling to his competitors? Also wasn't the whole internet a DARPA project in the first place? So credit where credit is due lol. Bill Gates is known for writing a dumb huffy letter about everyone pirating BASIC (which he had just repackaged from work done at Dartmouth) and for invoking a line of the contract he wrote with Ed Roberts (that Ed Roberts never read) about promoting BASIC to take control of Microsoft. And for investing in patent trolling companies despite claiming in 1991 that technology patents are bad for the industry--which you can either take as hypocrisy or due warning that the American people and Congress refused to act on. I don't really know what you're getting at with the internet-ARPANET reference relating to maffew's point that your comparison of tech company COs to atrocities committed by communist dictatorships might not be on the level.
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Apr 26, 2020 07:04
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Poor Outlook posted:But who owns the electron on and off switches?!?! gently caress me does Turing still get royalty checks? Oh, I get it now--it's a more general thing. FYI: Dry ice sublimates at 194.65 K.
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Apr 26, 2020 07:22
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That Works posted:Czech that out This is a time for jokes, you fancy? Bear with me if I seem a little BISed, but the outcome could be rather GRUsome.
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Apr 27, 2020 19:50
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hobbesmaster posted:At certain temperatures Can't kill a virus, it's not alive. You can only inactivate it.
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May 1, 2020 04:59
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