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Mebh posted:Whoops hosed up the links. Fixed now! There's a real sense of government panic coming across in these changes to the vaccine rollout. Like the opening scenes of Enemy At the Gates but with RNA instead of rifles. The MMR panic was started by a few nutters and had a massive effect on public attitudes to immunisation. If we run a national vaccination programme less on science and more "suck-it-and-see" that's going to do huge damage to public trust. If you elect the kind of people who think running a government is best done by bluffing your competence, it's inevitable they'll try that approach on other fields too. Unfortunately, it seems it's medicine's turn at the moment.
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Jan 2, 2021 13:02
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ronya posted:https://app.box.com/s/iddfb4ppwkmtjusir2tc/file/759357623956?sb=/details From the study: quote:Published efficacy between dose 1 and 2 of the Pfizer vaccine was 52.4% (95% CI 29.5-68.4%). Based on the timing of cases accrued in the phase 3 study, most the vaccine failures in the period between doses occurred shortly after vaccination, the period before any immune response is expected. Using data for those cases observed between day 15 and 21, efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 was estimated at 89% (95% CI 52-97%), suggesting that short term protection from dose 1 is very high from day 14 after vaccination. Similar findings were seen with the Moderna mRNA vaccine out to 108 days after the first dose (see Annex A). While 89% is the most likely efficacy of a single dose, 52-97% is quite a broad confidence interval. As far as I remember, anything south of 70-80% won't give herd immunity even if you get the whole group vaccinated. So until they have had dose number two, vulnerable people probably aren't going to be able to change back to "normal" behaviour. This is a subtle shift away from prioritising the most vulnerable towards minimising spread among everyone else.
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Jan 2, 2021 17:25
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It's relevant that case numbers have been increasing despite lockdown conditions that would previously have been sufficient. Rather than holding back vaccine stocks for a couple of weeks to administer as second doses, the plan is to throw a needle into every available arm in the desperate hope that it does some good. As pointed out, every vaccine used this way results in a person with questionable immunity. The best outcome is that we carry out a large scale study of efficacy and find later on that it gives meaningful benefit. The worst is that it gives no benefit and all the vulnerable people that survive the experiment end up getting three vaccine shots instead of two.
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Jan 3, 2021 17:40
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Regarde Aduck posted:There is evidence to suggest decent immunity from one shot, at least in the AZ trial because of how they hosed up. As for 'no benefit' i'm not a doctor but that seems unlikely. The lack of a reinfection wave points to a decent level of lasting immunity in people that have had actual covid, combined with the stats that say 1 does goes up to 90% efficiency after 14 days. The confidence interval on those stats is enormous though. The mean is 89% which sounds great by itself, but the 95% confidence interval on that is 52%-95% or something. Presumably because it's data they gathered by accident rather than design.
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Jan 3, 2021 19:06
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In darkest Somerset, there used to be a place where they'd tie pylons up and do all sorts of things to them... Like, y'know, systematic full scale testing to identify complex modes of failure in an era before reliable computer analysis.
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Jan 4, 2021 23:08
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goddamnedtwisto posted:a fairly unique phenomenon - at least in a built-up area - where a public right of way goes *through* a pylon, letting me get this rather trippy photo: I don't know whether you'd describe Huddersfield as a built up area, or somewhere that's passed that highpoint a while ago and is now on the glideslope back to organic entropy, but anyway... I've boated between the legs of this pylon and gazed up its iron skirt. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huddersfield_Narrow_Canal_Pylon
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Jan 4, 2021 23:38
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Paying £1000/year registration to allow you to legally collect VAT on behalf of the UK makes sense for an organisation as big as Amazon, given how much they sell in the UK. For small independent companies that can't afford that cost or administrative overhead... They'll have to find a re-seller who can manage that on their behalf. Like Amazon. It's a good principle let down by an abysmal implementation and a stubborn unwillingness to consider that VAT might not be the apogee of tax perfection.
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Jan 5, 2021 21:29
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sassassin posted:Passing responsibility down the chain is what everyone does these days. Make every company you deal with need their own expert rather than handling stuff in-house, then fine them if they get anything wrong. There is something in sticking to what you're good at and buying in everything that you aren't. The flip sides are that staff in lower skilled jobs have much less opportunity e.g. your badger licenser can't work their way up the organisation to be a planning officer because they aren't in the same organisation. And also the salami-slice attitude to responsibility that's doing to the construction industry what CDOs did to the banks in 2008. See- Grenfell.
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Jan 5, 2021 21:49
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crispix posted:it was met with a lot of eye rolling where I was working today. I've heard from nurses who really resent the hero poo poo because dedicated as they are they didn't go into the profession to put themselves at risk of death - they're not field medics When it comes down to it I think very few people who aren't damagingly indoctrinated actually want to be a hero. Heroism is usually something that happens on the spur of the moment without thinking about the realistic consequences of say, battling a suspected suicide bomber with a narwhal tusk. Asking people to go forth and be heros is a deeply cynical way of admitting you aren't prioritising their wellbeing, and trying to make a virtue of it.
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Jan 6, 2021 21:15
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Judging by their strong presence in the protesters, I'm surprised Getty Images hasn't yet been declared a terrorist group.
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Jan 6, 2021 22:23
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therattle posted:He’s right, the SWP ran amok after the last election. Have we already forgotten the death and destruction they caused our sacred land? Surely you must be mistaken. After the overwhelming victory in 2017 all other parties voluntarily disbanded and declared allegiance to god-emperor Corbyn.
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Jan 7, 2021 00:51
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We might have significantly more vaccine available than we thought. My guess is that it's cause the vaccine is packaged in five dose vials rather than single dose syringes. Only a small % of your product is allowed to have less than the stated contents so in practice manufacturers aim to overfill slightly, whether it's vaccine or cornflakes. Source: A pal of mine volunteered for the vaccination programme. Their team got issued just less than 1000 doses and are very proud they managed to stick more than 1100 arms.
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Jan 9, 2021 14:53
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OwlFancier posted:I think it's a bit stupid to say you can only exercise if you don't enjoy it. I bring drinks and sandwiches when I go for a walk because I like to stop to catch my breath and eat something when I do. Tier 6: You can only do it if it hurts.
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Jan 9, 2021 17:50
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Blaming social media for the insurrection in America is like blaming pamphleteers for the English civil war. It just happens to be the newest facilitator of communication at the moment. If we don't blame it we have to admit that the problems existed beforehand. That Douglas Adams essay from 1999 touches on these ideas- How to Stop Worrying and Learn to Love the Internet.
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Jan 9, 2021 18:22
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NotJustANumber99 posted:It is surely a crime to try and solicit individuals within the NHS to illegally supply you with their drugs? I think this is one of the reasons why we're not issuing vaccinated people with cards and telling them they can behave like they used to. The black market it would create would be fierce.
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Jan 9, 2021 19:15
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MrNemo posted:For Britain to rejoin the EU is basically going to require the same conditions that originally got us in: an utterly hosed economy that sees closer European integration as the only likely route out of it. I don't see divergence happening to get to that point for at least 10 years (and assumes that the EU survives and, relatively, thrives in that time). First time round we got in before the rules on this were codified.
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Jan 10, 2021 11:24
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Communist Thoughts posted:Keir was against free movement before he was pro second ref even so its not surprising He's basically the minister for the opposition at this point.
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Jan 10, 2021 18:45
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The Daily Stormer has been repeatedly kicked from host after host and now exists on TOR. Driving up the barriers to entry to this level does attenuate their voice even though it's not possible to silence completely. Simultaneously showing that cancelling is a myth and that technology companies can prioritise the greater good over advertising revenue, if sufficiently terrified by the prospect of regulation. Edit- mentioning this because this is likely to be the trajectory of Parler, if that wasn't clear.
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Jan 10, 2021 22:10
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EvilHawk posted:There's not really a lot of room for you to game the system (outside of fraud). You can't exactly change where you live. That being said, when I worked in customer service we would try and lower the premiums - the big one (and I'm not sure if this is true) is to put your mileage at 4,000 per year rather than 3,000. This seems paradoxical (surely if you drive less you're less of a risk) but a year or so before someone somewhere had said "put it at 3,000 it'll be cheaper!" so loads of people did and then... had accidents. So the underwriters saw this and said, clearly, if you're driving 3,000 miles you're more a risk and put that above 4,000. Mileage is one of the few areas you can game. I had this but with 9,000 miles/10,000 miles per year. One of the advantages of price comparison websites is that it's way easier to optimise these sorts of things. The voluntary excess is another one that benefits from experimentation.
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Jan 11, 2021 20:51
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OwlFancier posted:...you may have an internalized belief that a punitive element is the best way to correct aberrant behaviour. If you get a group of people to roll two dice and bollock anyone who scores less than a 6, most of the "poor performers" will score more highly the next round. Without being primed to spot it, most people would take that as vindication of the method.
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Jan 12, 2021 23:50
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Hospital admissions are still basically vertical though, and we're passing the March peak for patients on ventilators. I think the worst is very much still to come, and not just in a nice smooth "positive tests plus two weeks" curve - I'm scared we're going to hit the "switch off everyone over 85 to free up the beds" stage at least locally in the next few weeks. "This is good news - a few more days and it will be a definitive trend" is really dialling up the hopeful too. E- The British Rail class 91 is one sexy locomotive. Endjinneer fucked around with this message at 23:04 on Jan 13, 2021 |
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Jan 13, 2021 23:02
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SpaceCommie posted:Every other centrist seems to just pretend Corbyn was actually awful and would have been far worse than the Tories. That way they can still use Corbyn as a reason to reject any centre left candidate for the next decade. IDK how you cut through this. Centrists and tory voters alike have absorbed it as an axiomatic truth that the tories are the best at governing. No matter what happens, labour would have been 10x worse.
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Jan 13, 2021 23:19
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Pistol_Pete posted:Re: the developing Zero-covid campaign - I've been struck to see the right-wing press already gearing up to attack it, which I think is really interesting: I read that article and honestly struggled with it. It's a load of non factual statements swept together into a barely coherent mass like pubes in a plughole. "The oil industry, which has gone from being run by high-rolling prospectors and roughnecks to executives whose overriding mission is to ensure accidents never occur, is the textbook example." is... well you'd have to be able to a) watch Deepwater Horizon and b) not realise John Malkovich plays a baddie to swallow a take like that. Presumably these statements are intended to actually filter out readers capable of higher cognitive function in the same way 419 scammers' bad grammar is. The sentiment of it seems to be that lockdown skeptics are getting their arses kicked by reality and need to reposition themselves on COVID in order to retain their appeal. That presumes that lockdown skeptics hold their ideas for bold ideological reasons, whereas they're mostly general purpose contrarians who feed on the hottest issue of the moment. In order to not expose their behaviour they cannot change position, they can only change issue. We would be able suppress it to effectively-zero levels like we have with other diseases or like other countries have done in this pandemic. We could also set up structures so that the next viral outbreak is properly contained. That would be the right thing to do. But I doubt we can be arsed. I think we'll end up getting told that Boris has Won Back Normal as soon as vaccination stops COVID deaths being headline worthy in the UK. It'll then sit around endemically like whooping cough and flu. Never rising up enough to trigger a change in behaviour here, killing the odd unlucky person in the UK but mostly just millions of people in poorer countries.
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Jan 14, 2021 19:29
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BalloonFish posted:I'm now of the opinion that as long as they can be convinced that: We sell more hours to them than they buy from us. If our working week is 48 hours, it will be ten times as long over there.
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Jan 15, 2021 00:25
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Tories are shitlords right in your face, Blue Labour will pretend that they're sad while doing the exact same things, which is just adding insult to injury. Also they're occupying seats that are almost universally safe and could be occupied by people who actually looked at the name of the party when they signed up, and so are actually more of an active impediment to change than the Tories. Ironically safe because they're constituencies with a generally more marginalised electorate who'd have the most to gain from the sort of labour policies their MP is dead set against.
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Jan 15, 2021 00:58
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kustomkarkommando posted:Yeah Ive talked to a lot of french people who are pretty antivax and not exactly frothing right wing maniacs - big cultural touchstone seems to have been a big panic about the Hep B vaccine causing MS in the late 90s that reached the point that the government had to stop mandatory vaccinations , a bit like our MMR causes Autism debacles but on a larger scale. One of the strange things about the anti-vaccine movement is that people in different countries have different reasons for opposing vaccination. It's autism in the UK, supposed mercury content in the US... Almost like there's an innate level of fear that need something to coalesce around.
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Jan 15, 2021 18:34
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marktheando posted:I thought it was the same in the UK and the USA, the idea was the mercury caused the autism? https://www.msdmanuals.com/en-gb/professional/pediatrics/childhood-vaccination/anti-vaccination-movement quote:Wakefield postulated that the measles virus in the MMR vaccine traveled to the intestine where it caused inflammation, enabling proteins from the GI tract to enter the bloodstream, travel to the brain, and cause autism. This study received significant media attention worldwide, and many parents began to doubt the safety of the MMR vaccine. In another study, Wakefield claimed to find the measles virus in intestinal biopsy specimens of 75 of 90 children with autism and in only 5 of 70 control patients, leading to speculation that the live measles virus in the MMR vaccine was somehow implicated in autism. In parts of the global south the conspiracy theory is that vaccination is a covert sterilisation project and in parts of the global brainbroke vaccination is seen as Bill Gates trying to put microchips in you.
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Jan 15, 2021 19:04
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ISO 9001 compliant quality management is required for a lot of public sector contracts. It's just as noble an idea as your FSC certification, but in practice the auditors are happy to only look at what you want to show them and it's less representative of capability than the scouts' circus skills badge.
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Jan 15, 2021 20:00
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goddamnedtwisto posted:PRINCE2 is a project management thing rather than an IT thing. IT stuff gets managed with it, but so does like HS2... which probably tells you all you need to know about it. PRINCE2 stands for PRojects In Controlled Environments. Controlled? Like seriously, how do we allow people so detached from reality to hold power?
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Jan 16, 2021 00:47
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multijoe posted:I honestly think the Labour Left are too meek and accommodating to ever take control of the party, any attempt to reformulate a new popular left movement just seems like a waste of everyone's time if they're not willing to be as ruthless and pragmatic as the Right to marginalise their internal opponents and actually enact their agenda. And even now very few of them seem to have grasped what a pointless ordeal trying to thread the needle on antisemitism was, which doesn't inspire any confidence that they're going to be less credulous marks the next time it becomes the UK's media number one priority to discredit a left-wing politician again Left wingers marginalising internal opponents always gets called out as "stalinist purges". I think our left wing leadership has always had such a massive hang up about being likened to stalin that they'll do everything to accommodate their opponents. Failing to grasp is that they'll get called stalinist no matter what, and most vociferously by their strongest opponents, so they have literally nothing to lose.
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Jan 31, 2021 19:00
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