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Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Ty1990 posted:

Dynasty draft in 30 minutes

Got offered Crowder, 26 overall, and a 3 next year for Devante Parker.

Yay or nay?

Crowder is a huge question mark going forward. He seems like he is being phased out. I wouldn't be surprised if he turns out to be sneaky value. He has yet to be displaced as NYJ's #1, and only, receiver worth a drat.

Honestly though, I'm not sure how much I want with Miami's offense. They have a lot of mouths to feed for a primary running team and those two extra picks might be worth more than both receivers combined

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Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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ChocolatePancake posted:

Personally I would mash accept on that trade.

Michael Thomas is a loving bargain.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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I'd strongly consider dropping Goff and seeing if I could get some value at QB down the road. $6 seems like a lot for your third QB. He doesn't really have the upside of the other two.

I'd also consider dumping Singletary because he seems high for his production, but also RBs are probably scarce, so not sure I'd want to part with him.

I wouldn't drop Raegor because he is a second year receiver and that is when players make their biggest jump. Not sure I like dumping Henry either, unless you think you can get him back at half the cost.

That Mixon contract must feel like a lead weight. Ugh.

Do you know where you are picking in the first round? And is it just a rookie draft?

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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RCarr posted:

Yea I traded Kelce for Mixon a few years ago on the advice from multiple people in this thread :( and it hasn’t worked out so good. I was just able to acquire Kittle though, so I’m set at TE for a long while.

I’m in the lottery so my two first round picks will both be between 1.01 and 1.06.

It’s rookies and free agents but I doubt there’s going to be any free agents worth taking with those picks.

Well, cutting Mixon becomes an interesting option because you have a good chance at getting him back for half the cost, if you're willing to burn a first to do it. I don't hate Mixon on your team, I just hate him at that price. If you somehow end up with number one and get Harris, you can feel good letting him go. If you don't, you still have a good chance of getting a nice rookie and a discount on a RB who will get volume. Although looking at the top six rookies, I'd probably figure out a way to live with that contract.


sourdough posted:

Yeah Goff (or really any one of the QBs if you have a strong preference), Singletary, Jeff Wilson, and Fulgham are my easy cuts. Hunter Henry is fine if you really need the cap space, but I don't think you will after those cuts.

This is probably what I'd do. Fulgham is a guy you can grab later if you really want him back. Singletary has limited upside in that offense. Those cuts net you an additional $23, so you can go to town on this draft and you'll have some cap space during the season.

This is an interesting draft and I'd strongly consider trading one of those firsts down if you can get more capital. But only if you end up outside of the top three on the lottery. That'd make it easier to target a younger non-Lawrence QB to replace Goff and maybe grab an additional upside receiver.

If I were you, I'd be dreaming of some combo of Harris/Chase/Pitts.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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kiimo posted:

Etinne concerns me with Urban Meyer and Robinson.

I also am pumping the brakes on Pitts but also because I have pretty good tight ends already.


Javante Williams above DeVonta Smith yeah agree to disagree


adjusted:


Zach Wilson
Trevor Lawrence
Macorkle Jones
Justin Fields
Trey Lance
Ja'Marr Chase
Najee Harris
Travis Etinne
De'Vanta Smith
Kyle Pitts
Jalen Waddle
Elijah Moore
Javante Williams
Rashod Bateman
Kadarius Toney
Terrace Marshall, Jr.

Marking down Pitts because you are tight end heavy is dumb. This is dynasty. You should be getting the most good players you can get. If you have too many good tight ends, trade one later. Don't deliberately make your draft weaker because of roster construction. That just leads to long term problems.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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kiimo posted:

Well I also think he's kind of overrated and not worth the cost


Football Guys has Pitts the #3 TE. Doesn't this make anyone else a little nervous? Yes I know he was incredible in college.

Then say that. Always draft according to your board. The idea of Pitts being the number three TE next year is laughable though. I love him, but the odds of him finishing that high are low. You shouldn't expect much from rookies for dynasty. I do think in three years there is a very strong chance he is the consensus number on tight end for multiple years and that positional advantage is huge.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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MakaVillian posted:

Not sure if we're discussing trades in this thread yet but I've been offered something interesting in my 0.5 PPR superflex dynasty

My Derrick Henry for his Travis Etienne, a early to mid 2022 1st and a 2024 1st.

My biggest problem with the trade is that it will leave my RB position looking like this: Etienne, Mike Davis, Melvin Gordon, James White, Duke Johnson and Damien Williams. How realistic is it that Etienne turns into an RB1 in the next 2-3 years?

What does the rest of your team look like?

EDIT: Also, how many teams

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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MakaVillian posted:

12 teams. Also forgot to mention it's a TE premium league.





Aiyuk and OJ Howard are cut off of the second picture

Edit: Also a 5 man taxi squad with no one of note except maybe Kadarius Toney

I lean more towards taking that trade. Three firsts is a lot and Derrick Henry's playstyle doesn't lend itself towards a long career. For a SF league, you are hurting at QB and RB. Thielen and Kelce are getting older, so you are in a weird position where some of your best players have a small window for a championship, but you don't really have the horses to get you there. Personally, I'd be seeing what I could get for Thielen too. Maybe even Kelce, but in TE premium, I'd want a lot for him.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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MakaVillian posted:

I've been trying to get rid of Thielen, but I think a better trade for him will materialize at the trade deadline. Brees was my 2nd QB so his retirement was a big blow for this year.

Thanks for the advice everyone, I was leaning to accepting and it's nice to have that feeling confirmed.

Agreed on Thielen's value probably going up. Hopefully JJ doesn't eat too much of his targets. His market will be interesting this year.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Spermy Smurf posted:

I find it hard to argue with your rankings, but I'd put Chubb above Kamara this year. I'd almost move Chubb to #1 or #2. I think Chubb is going to have a monster year.

Also, no CMC in the list. Cuz Darnold?

CMC is his own tier

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Spermy Smurf posted:

Put it on the calendar to laugh at me in 6 months if you want, but I think CMC will be 4th or worse out of 7 on that list above.

Yeah, that wouldn't surprise me at all, but I think it is equally likely he is modern day LDT for fantasy

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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In a Superflex, I'd be hesitant to gamble on a QB falling to me. Also, one thing I'll say in a start up is that next years first still has less value than 3rd or 4th this year. Don't be afraid to use it to trade up for picks.

Grabbing your favorite running back is fine, but make sure you get a building block at QB in the future. You wont get a good quarterback in rookie drafts unless you are picking top two and then you have to hope they'll be good.

If you can trade back for extra 4th through 6th rounders, you can build an incredible team to compete now. Don't overvalue your early picks. Guys like CEH and Aaron Jones fall to the 4th in some start ups. I'd rather have an extra second and 5th or sixth than a first.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:

Yeah I gambled and Burrow was there at 2.4. I wish I could have worked out a trade to move out of 1.9 but it was hard having never done any Dynasty trades before. Instead of asking straight up for more picks in return I should have suggested swapping more later picks. For example, the 2.5 spot was just traded for 2.8; 2.5 gained a 6th round pick while giving up his 8th round pick - both players have the same number of picks but the player giving up the higher pick gained value by moving his 8th rounder to the 6th.

This is the exact strategy I implemented in my start up this year. With your third and fourth picks try filling up on mid rounders and sacrificing late rounders. You'll end up with a monster.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Is Fields already gone?

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:

Thats fair and a good callout. I think part of why I have high expectations is because I think I read that they brought in a good OL coach, and the system they are going to run is OL friendly. I guess we'll find out!

...

poo poo

I think this isn't a bad expectation. The Shanahan system does seem to be friendlier to offensive lineman. However, I'd be very nervous investing so much into the Jets

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Spoeank posted:

Please do not go out of your way to put New York Jets players on your roster.

Want them all for yourself?

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:

I'm up in this superflex PPR Dynasty marathon draft, my roster is:
Burrow, Wilzon
Cook, Swift, Jacobs
Ja'Marr Chase Claypool
no TE

We start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and have two flex spots in addition to the superflex spot.

Trey Sermon and Laviska Shenault are both available and I want both but obviously can only have one. I need more WRs and would love to have the homer pick; Shenault has hype but I feel like its well founded because he did fairly well last year considering the whole covid situation and the revolving door of bad QB play. However, Sermon might become the bellcow in SF. I also badly need a TE and the next best available TE is Irv Smith, who might be great this year with Rudolph gone and no clear WR3 in Minny, and the TE position is pretty thin after him.

After typing that out I am leaning Shenault, but what do people think?

I'm not a fan of Shenault because I think Etienne is going to used in a very similar fashion and their redundancy makes me nervous. I think Sermon is the guy by a mile. All things being equal, a running back who hits in a Shanahan offense is more valuable than the number three receiver on the Jags.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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While I agree about the third QB being a priority, I'm wondering if Michael Carter is available. He's the dynasty running back that I'd be targeting.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:

Thank you for all of the input, gentlement!

Yeah I took Cook because I wanted the value at that pick and my hope is that I will be able to trade him to a contender either in-season or at least before next year's draft - there are a bunch of people badly short on RBs (which was part of why I was considering Sermon - to have a backup RB option and/or more trade fodder).

I got a good offer to move back one spot and move up 6 spots in a few rounds which let my trade partner grab Ryan, so I took Carr. I may come to regret this.

I'd rather have Carr anyway. Ryan feels done and since you aren't in win now, Ryan is a waste of a mid round pick

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Just don't overthink it and take the guy you think is gonna be the best player. I'm taking Pitts top three in standard dynasty leagues and top five in Superflex and not looking back. He feels like a relatively safe pick with a high floor or high ceiling.

kiimo posted:

I pick fourth in my dynasty league and need another QB to pair with Mahomes. I'm pleading with the stars that either Wilson or Fields fall to me.

gently caress Trey and Macorkle somebody else can hope against hope for those guys.

Like if Mac falls to me I'm taking Chase and just figure out QB later.

Fourth ain't a bad spot to be in at all in a SF league this year. I'd be pretty damned happy with Chase, Lawrence, Fields, Pitts or Harris. I'm kind of bummed out I don't have a first this year in my dynasty league.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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EDIT:^^^^^^^ THIS!

kiimo posted:

I irrationally think Fields is gonna kill it in an Andy Reid offense. But admittedly a lot of that is hope because I spend so much time in Chicago.

As a Bears fan, I have never felt this excited about a quarterback. Not for Cutler. Not for Trubisky. Fields is going to be amazing until he suffers a career-ending injury because the Bears aren't allowed to have nice quarterbacks


AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:

Isnt Nagy the problem there? He cant stop calling every game like is the fourth quarter of a playoff game when down by two touchdowns? Or has the QB play been so bad it just makes him look bad?

Nagy is not the problem. One of the big debates in Chicago this offseason was how to get rid of Ryan Pace while still keeping Nagy. Nagy is amazing at scheming guys open.

If you look at some of the advanced numbers on Mooney, he should've been a top fifteen receiver. He made so many elite cornerbacks look silly, only to have Trubisky/Foles miss him.

Plus, their interior offensive line was very injured in the middle of the season. It isn't a coincidence that Montgomery had the second half he had right when they got healthy.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Pain of Mind posted:

The next year Mixon lives up to his preseason hype will be the first. Who doesn't want to spend a second round pick on a guy who will bounce off the D-line two times in a row starting on 1st and 1 to then watch some other RB come in and easily walk in for the TD on 3rd down 8 times a year.

I legitimately believe this is the year he is finally good because this is the first year I wont draft him.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Ty1990 posted:

What are our thoughts on Deandre Swift going forward in a dynasty league?

Breakout player of 2021. If he stays healthy, he'll end the year as an RB1.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:

Or Cardinals I guess


There are so many layers to how dumb this is.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Spoeank posted:

The problem with leaning into Matthew Stafford is the changing landscape of fantasy football scoring. If you don't run, you need a historically good season to reach the top-five. Rushing is so much more valuable that a passing-only quarterback starts in a massive hole

To put it a different way, if you converted fantasy points from rushing yards and TDs into equivalent passing yards and TDs, then add them to their passing, this is where you end up last year per game

Dak, 418 yards, 2.2 TDs
Kyler, 376 yards, 2.1 TDs
Watson, 371 yards, 2.2 TDs
Mahomes, 367 yards, 2.6 TDs
Jackson, 351 yards, 2.0 TDs
Allen, 350 yards, 2.6 TDs
Wilson, 343 yards, 2.6 TDs


None of these guys were outliers, so Stafford is starting in a massive hole. He's gotta average ~350 and ~2.5 just to make it into their tier.

This is a great breakdown about why they are so close. I'm taking all the shares of Stafford that I can, but I think he's going to be the QB of the number one offense in football this year.

I'm also really low on Hurts.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Drunk Nerds posted:

Well, never mind, then!

To distract everyone from my idiocy:

This Saturday, at 1 PM PST, we are going to fill a 10 team Superflex PPR Mock auction.

https://sleeper.app/draft/nfl/726630234786533376

This is an opportunity to get ahead of your SF auction leagues. Would love some of you genius, super sexy goons in there!

In an hour and 15 minutes, FA will be streaming this SF mock auction on Twitch. We still have 5 slots available and are looking for all human data to help people get their practice shots in. If you've wanted SF mock auction data, join now!

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Thanks for jumping in guys. That was a good SF mock.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Drunk Nerds posted:

This

Also, I'm tired of mocking, I want a real auction!

But I'm busy, so this will be best ball:

https://sleeper.app/i/V56aDYYWqMRZ

Launches shortly after 1 PM PST today

Winner gets the acknowledgment that they have the greatest balls of them all!


Live draft starting in 30 minutes. Only two spots left. At the end, I will explain on twitch why my team is better than all of your teams.


kiimo posted:

Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence and Trey Lance all look like they're falling to me at 1.4. I have to take Lawrence, right? I can't galaxy brain this right? Superflex starts next season and I have one QB on my roster right now.

I really like Fields and Lance and was fine with either falling to me and never in my wildest dreams thought Lawrence would also fall. Chase, Harris and Pitts all went. These guys have no idea how important QB is going to be next season.

I'm a complete Bears homer and Fields truther and I still go Lawrence. He's the best quarterback prospect since Luck.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Pain of Mind posted:

What are thoughts on Barkley? Similar to my previous question about Hurts, but it seems like he is getting a first round ADP across the board (typically RB6-8ish or so), yet to me it feels like there is a ton of risk for him. Currently PUP, might miss early weeks of the season, might not be 100% when he does come back, and he is on a bad Giants team with a projected worst Oline in the league. I am mainly asking because after mapping out projected keepers in my keeper league, so many good players are kept that it is looking likely I will need to choose between him or another equally risky RB with the 6th or 9th overall pick since so many top players of each position are kept. He has the physical talents to be a top RB, but I am just not sure if this year is the year to use a 1st round pick on him, yet almost everywhere he is getting ranked as if he has not been injured.

He's the only injury guy I'm willing to take a flyer on. History tells me he should be good to go at some point early in the season. I think they are just being cautious. I haven't heard about setbacks. Just that they're taking their time with him. I like him on the swing if he falls to me.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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kiimo posted:

I'm in love with Waddle but I might be even more impressed with Elijah Moore. This is going to be an emotion pick and I might get burned but Moore is destroying camp.


Would you make fun of someone who picked Moore over Waddle in dynasty? I worry about Waddle's surgically repaired ankle and other receivers in Miami but Moore looks like an instant star in NY.

Always take your guy. You're gonna be way more upset if you're right and you passed on him than if you are wrong and grabbed him.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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RCarr posted:

I have 1.03 and 1.05 in the rookie draft of my dynasty salary cap league. I found out the second pick is dropping Mike Evans to get him back at a cheaper salary. Do I take Chase at 1.03?

There’s not going to be any non-rookies worth that draft price.

Clear top top two for me are Chase and Pitts.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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sourdough posted:

Who is going at 1 and 2? Assuming Chase even falls to you, I'd take Evans over Chase pretty comfortably, and then roll the dice on pick 4 going RB or QB or Pitts and hope Chase gets to 5.

Consensus dynasty rankings have Chase higher. I get taking Evans, but I don't think it's as close as you think. But I think he's saying Evans is going with the second pick, so assuming Najee goes one, he's thinking Chase.

Depending on your lineup, I consider Pitts or Chase. I probably lean Chase, even though Pitts has the higher ceiling to me.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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fsif posted:

So for simple office redraft leagues, what service do you guys typically use? We've been using ESPN for a while and I hate it, but sounds like most the popular alternatives (Yahoo, CBS) are maybe worse.

I've been poking around with Sleeper, but there's a part of me that wonders if it comes across as somehow unofficial/sketchy, heh.

Yahoo is way better than ESPN in my opinion, as is CBS. CBS always had the best interface to me, but I think you gotta pay for them.

Sleeper is nice and growing. Best part about them is they listen to feedback and I find their app very user friendly.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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RCarr posted:

Yea Evans is going with the second pick. I assume the first pick will be Harris but ya never know.

My team:

QB- Stafford, Tua
RB- CEH, Mixon, Jacobs, Sanders, Singletary
WR- Hopkins, McLaurin, Thielen, Robinson, T Higgins, Robby Anderson, Reagor, Fulgham
TE- Kittle, Henry

I’m stacked at WR, so I’d absolutely love if Harris fell to me, but I’m just worried about Chase with all the negative poo poo coming out of the Bengals camp.

I still like Chase. Rookie training camp doesn't really move the bar for me that much because a lot of it is just noise.

I would be looking hard at Etienne here though. You have a lot of running backs that I was excited about at one point that I've completely fallen off of lol.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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kiimo posted:

CEH and Sanders still good

I think Jacobs is too. My comment was more about how much all of their stocks have crashed over the last couple years.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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RCarr posted:

I’m also a little hesitant to grab Chase because I already have Mixon and Higgins. Owning the entire Bengal skill position set doesn’t sound great.

Obviously go Etienne to get those Jaguar shares

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Man, I still don't know how I feel about my team. I hate my receivers, but I'm so deep at QB/RB I think it'd end up solid.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Spermy Smurf posted:

PoM wins the league this year. If Tebowfan15 has a good year from Baker then he's second. Team5 and Nerds gonna be powerhouses too, but I got money on PoM and Tebowfan.

Is that the bestball league mentioned so we can see how it goes later?

It was just a mock Superflex to figure out trends because there is so little information out there. If it were a best ball league, I'd have drafted very different.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:

In a deep league I might do Jones in the second if and only if I had a real late second round pick. Gibson then too.

Nah, 2nd and Swift > Jones and 8th

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Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Kelce is one of those rare guys where I don't care about his age. Until I see proof of a decline, I assume he'll be good forever.

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