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Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 22 minutes!
Grimey Drawer

Sjs00 posted:

The zombies thing just popped into my head tonight as I wondered what the consequences of so many warm bodies harboring so much of the virus asymptomatic or otherwise and how it's basically infinite dice rolls on the mutation factor because
Squat racks

I assume you know what you're on about and are very smart

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Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 22 minutes!
Grimey Drawer

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

The aggro levels are crazy high right now

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/faa-warns-spike-unruly-dangerous-passenger-behavior-n1266156

Seychelles island managed to get their population of 98,000 residents 60% vaxxed and then declared that the pandemic was over as far as they were concerned and threw open their borders to any tourist who could show a negative PCR test from the 72 hours before arrival, no vaccine and no quarantine required. That didn't go well for them, with a sudden surge in cases forcing them to close schools and ban sports etc etc..
The fact that they mostly vaxxed their population with Sinopharm and Covishield prrrrrrrrrrrrrobably factored into the outbreak as well.

E: I'm seeing a bunch of anti-vax fuckwits on social media whining "If Seychelles is the most vaxxed country in the world and they're still getting massive outbreaks then what is even the point of these vaccines??!??!???"


He not only got the game cancelled, he got the entire NBA season cancelled (and the NHL, MLB and MLS followed soon after). But that chain of events was also what convinced a huge percentage of the US population that this virus thing is actually pretty serious and they should stop loving around with it so in a weird roundabout way Gobert's dumb stunt probably saved a lot of lives.

That article is all over the place in its implications.

So 60% are vaccined, but none with mRNA ones which continue to be regarded as the best. They opened the doors and saw a massive rise in cases. But then it says nothing about hospital admissions and deaths. So are they all asymptomatic? I thought the main objective of the vaccines was to reduce severity. So isn't it inevitable that cases are going to rise?

It then finishes by saying UK cases have massively fallen after vaccination but most people are getting AZ, which is the same as Covidshield right? So uh.... why is it different? Is this implication they're tiptoeing around 'the UK is super hosed'? I mean it wouldn't surprise me, our government is clownshoes, but again I thought the objective of the vaccines was just to reduce severity and associated pressure on health systems. Like I was paying attention to death rates but the media seems to be going off cases.

So many implications but little information. Was the case rise just a wave of intense extraordinary amounts of people that may or may not matter much in terms of deaths? Is it a sign that AZ is ineffective which has major implications for the UK? What even are the objectives of the vaccines? Reducing severity or reducing cases? If the objective is to reduce both then yeah our lives are going to have to stay disrupted, no cinemas, restaurants or sports games until better vaccines (if possible). If its just to reduce deaths then we can do more assuming the vaccines work. Whichever one of these is true, it needs to be communicated better. Because I don't know what the gently caress the news stories want me to take away from this. Sometimes it's like they're cheerfully stating the apocalypse before ending with a snappy quip and then a clickbait link.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 22 minutes!
Grimey Drawer
is that directed at me?

I'm generally optimistic and consider the vaccines to give us the advantage that we can slowly chip away at the virus. It's just I don't know what to make of information like that which just implies 'they got vaccines but they're still hosed, and now the weather'. It feels like people are saying the vaccines work but only if we continue to act like we don't have vaccines. I mean it's an interesting case: If vaccines don't allow Seychelles to open their doors then how is a place like that, which depends mostly on tourism, going to survive?

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 22 minutes!
Grimey Drawer
That seems pointlessly slow because of variants.

learnincurve posted:

New cases in the U.K. going up and it’s the Indian variant taking over however they know the vaccinations work against it - hospitalisations are still down 7.4% on last week, and deaths are down 22.2% even though we are at phase 3 of unlocking on Monday.

Remember it takes about a month between new cases and a change in death rates. Although yeah, cases were always going to go up. It’s the acceleration or lack of that’ll be interesting. The vaccines should blunt it but we’ll see.

Nightmare scenario is the India variant rips through the old and vulnerable and the AZ vaccine is found lacking.

If there’s anything to take away from this it’s that the world can’t sit back and watch developing nations suffer because the virus needs suppressing everywhere at once. Not that this is new information but our glorious leaders still don’t get it.

Regarde Aduck fucked around with this message at 09:50 on May 13, 2021

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 22 minutes!
Grimey Drawer

If a variant escapes the vaccines how will local restrictions help? It’ll spread like wildfire. Soon every local area would need restrictions and it would just be a complete lockdown. Even Whitty is pretending he doesn’t understand exponential spread.

I guess people maybe using different meanings of ‘vaccine escape’

1) spreads unimpeded, severity still mitigated
2) just acts like you aren’t vaccinated

1 can be controlled somewhat, 2 is just March/April of 2020 again

Regarde Aduck fucked around with this message at 11:20 on May 14, 2021

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 22 minutes!
Grimey Drawer

Fenarisk posted:

At one time current cdc guidelines said no masks when there should have been, they're more based on politics than science.

Anyone in a closed space without a mask is directly attempting to harm my family so yeah, I couldn't care less what they think when you can't do the bare minimum of a level 2 mask.

Edit: for reference my state is still at 2%, meaning at least half aren't reported for asymptomatic or people too lazy or malicious to get tested when sick, so that's still a probable 5% infection rate which is too large of a chance still. You wouldn't get on a plane if it had a 5% chance of blowing up mid air.

When a plane blows up your chance of dying is 100%. So that's a 5% chance of death.

a 5% chance of catching covid does not equal a 5% chance of death. It doesn't even mean there's a 5% chance of being ill. And if you got ill it doesn't really say anything about the severity of the illness.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 22 minutes!
Grimey Drawer

Blitter posted:

Have you heard of something called a "lead indicator"?

That would be the cases, if you are talking about hospitalisations.



It is not surprising that deaths have remained flat as yhey are a lag indicator, because as the term suggests, they lag behind at the average of the infection/hospitalisation/death duration.

You should really read something about the state of the pandemic in the UK, you seem ill informed.

The weekly numbers are here

Cases being a 'lead indicator' is a bit disrupted by the existence of vaccines no? The big question here is are hospitalizations going up fast because the vaccine isn't working or is it almost all non-vaccinated people? The difference is everything.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 22 minutes!
Grimey Drawer

Blitter posted:

Mortality aside, Ithink there are some reasonable concerns about long covid in children.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaveLeeERMD/status/1413816137570205697

The implications for long covid are not good.

along with evidence that even true asymptomatic people have displayed loss of brain matter on scans, my main concern is does this silent brain damage happen every time someone gets infected? If its hitting the same receptors that cause respiratory illness then by my layman understanding I don't see why it wouldn't. And as the vaccines don't always prevent infection, and as we know people can get reinfected especially with variants... are we potentially getting hit with minor brain damage every wave? Disclaimer: not a doctor, i'm just trying to piece things together and possibly jumping to wild conclusions.

edit: reading it again I guess it comes down to whether microstrokes are triggered and if they're the main mechanism behind the brain damage.

Regarde Aduck fucked around with this message at 18:22 on Jul 11, 2021

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 22 minutes!
Grimey Drawer

Gordon Shumway posted:

In response to the Rogan thing, didn't Alex Jones just inject or ingest ivermectin on camera to prove nothing bad will happen? It's like when Boris Johnson wanted to be injected with covid on live TV to prove it was no worse than the flu, only these people don't have anyone sensible advising them against it.

It was crazy that as bad as the uk hosed up the covid response it would have been so much worse if the stupid gently caress hadn't caught it early on and nearly died. It aged him by at least ten years.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 22 minutes!
Grimey Drawer

How are u posted:

Pandemics have been something humans have had to deal with since the dawn of civilization, buddy. We've lived gentle, soft, blessed lives compared to just about everybody whose ever lived. It's not all some nefarious scheme by ~the capitalists~ to keep you down. Pandemics are awful and horrific, and we're coming to understand why, personally.

You're going to be OK.

no many of us won't be ok

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Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 22 minutes!
Grimey Drawer

PederP posted:

I have no idea, honestly. It just makes me slightly paranoid that the country of origin is still treating it like this. I realize there can be many other reasons than "we're scared of the virus, because we know it's very bad" for this, but still I would be weirdly comforted if they chilled a bit on their policy. I personally think the truth is that covid is worse than the non-Asian authorities are claiming, and less serious than China is treating it. I am not confident our current policy is a good idea and/or sustainable, but I also realize zero-covid is absolutely not going to happen in the west. I just wish we could care about minimizing illness - at least because it's bad thing to catch a virus infection in general. Right now it feels like hubris to just dismiss it as irrelevant and not even worth the bother to minimize (through better indoor climate, campaigns for sick people to stay at home, cordon sanitaire in regards to travel, using masks more widely, etc). We'll see what happens, but the massive disparity between western nonchalance and Chinese zerocovid just feels weird. Health policy generally doesn't deviate this much. I can't recall another example of something like this.

the most obvious explanation to me is that they're treating long covid as a very real threat to long term productivity. The west is currently hobbling its own workforce for a quick buck. If every one else has 20% of their work force crippled with long-term chronic illness, China gets even more powerful.

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