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mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
Bring back the old thread from last spring

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mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
Went out to dinner indoors in downtown Chicago :coolfish: probably should get a booster soon though

(We went from 4-6 and left right when more people started showing up)

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Sunny Side Up posted:

So from what I’ve gleaned. You have unvaccinated kids. Your wife has not cared at all about quarantining or protecting the kids or you. You read all of the information in this thread. But you haven’t changed much at all in the way of your normal behaviors. Is this wrong? The biggest conflict I remember was you had a pool party and locked yourself inside or something but the kids and wife were mingling with all the friends and fam?

Not calling you out to be rude. You just really give me this sense of whiplash when I read your posts. I don’t understand you.

The only thing I take issue with is giving advice recommending people put kids in school for social interaction when you aren’t protecting yours.

This is the riskiest thing I've done by far, I've mainly given up and very much changed behavior. I went out once to dinner in mid March, pre Delta, after being fully vaccinated when capacity limits were in place. The pool party was someone else but my wife also went to the pool and I hid on a chair with a hat over my head after being freaked out , about a year ago.

Still masking n95 on transit and grocery stores and museums and in outdoor crowds; my kid will have kf94s for school, not going to go to packed bars or restaurants. But mostly empty ones? gently caress it sure

Covid isn't going away. My kid probably won't be vaccinated til next year . It isn't that big a deal in northern Illinois, yet. I'll booster each October.

mastershakeman fucked around with this message at 02:32 on Aug 17, 2021

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Sunny Side Up posted:

Different evaluations of risk I guess. We’re continuing to quarantine (curbside restaurants, grocery delivery or curbside, date nights in, etc) until our kid is vaxxed. Kudos to you, it’s an enormous challenge to read this thread and then take a mask off in public like in a restaurant a few feet from the next table or where someone could pass by unmasked at any second. I’m more of an all or nothing sort of person I guess.

Yeah, it's stupid. This was my best friend in town who I haven't seen in a few years, we are seeing each later this week for dinner and I just said gently caress it. I have other friends scheduling events in September (ehhh). And October (uhoh) and not sure if I'll be in the same mindset once Illinois cases go wild


I'm gonna admit half the reason I posted this is to antagonize people. This isnt Melbourne, covid zero isn't happening. Frankly if vaccines were online for kids I might have played it safe but I'm dispirited about the "mid Winter" expectations for it

mastershakeman fucked around with this message at 03:16 on Aug 17, 2021

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Real Mean Queen posted:

When you say that anywhere else on the internet, the only response people have is GET VACCINATED

I did and I don’t live there, and that’s got nothing to do with the fact that a guy being sort of immune from the gnarlier aspects of the disease six weeks from now does nothing for anyone today

Would you rather they talk about ivermectin

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
Testing is the worst it's been since last April and cases don't matter, only hospitalizations and deaths

These 150k case days are probably the same as 200-250k ones last fall. You could probably do a ratio just going off the positivity rates at the respective times

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
Lol at Chicago bringing back an indoor mask mandate

Places either have one themselves like museum of science and industry or are just not going to enforce it if it's even possible to (i.e. not dining)

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

WaryWarren posted:

cool, so you'll go to a "nearly empty bar" that totally doesn't have any virus in it, because you thoroughly checked. then you go to indoor public places like MSI. and your children are unvaxxed on top of that. you really topped yourself, MSM.

My kid goes back to school next Wednesday I gotta up the chances he's the one that spreads to everyone else

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Thoguh posted:

Mandates still make a difference because at the very least they greatly reduce the pressure on people who are still masking to take off the mask.

Yeah probably true

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Thoguh posted:

Looking forward to reporting all Nate Silver tweets for this.

I'm gonna report everything the CDC says

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
These southern schools are idiots. Don't they know you just set up a policy that says everyone has to wear masks and be 3.1 feet apart therefore no one can ever be a close contact and thus no quarantines

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Nocturtle posted:

Interesting post from Carl Bergstrom about the Israeli observations of decreased efficacy:
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1427767357808603139?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Each age group considered separately has high effectiveness (>85%), but it declines to 67.% when they're combined. Basically there's a lot of unvaccinated young people that don't get that sick while there's a lot of vaccinated old people that do get sick. Combining the two age groups obscures the fact that the vaccinated do significantly better than the unvaccinated within the corresponding age group. Feels a bit like P-hacking, except there's a robust physical explanation to justify "binning" the data by age.

This is great poo poo. As long as doses don't get backlogged again (doubtful) I think it means postponing a booster right now and waiting til closer to standard flu shot times (so oct-nov depending on climate) is the right move

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Gio posted:

my brother put his kid in daycare knowing they’d get covid, and sure enough they all got their wish within a little over a month and a half!

Like 10 million team blue yuppies sent their kids to daycare/Pre-K/pods/summer camp for the last 18 months and completely dodged the bullet, so they'll do it again this year since the parents are vaxxed now. They don't even recognize they got lucky; approximately none of the kids were wearing kf94s

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Thoguh posted:

Which would put me not able to get a booster until early December and gently caress that, I'm going in early October.

You shoulda signed up to be an instacart worker on 2/1/21 and traveled to one of the many counties and states with plenty of doses who accepted said instacart status as eligible for the shot

Sorry if you had a job you couldn't just duck out on like white collar people have done for decades to go to their doctors appointments

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Notahippie posted:

Yes, but that's hosed up and worth calling out as hosed up.

Calling poo poo out does nothing

Hey did you hear about poverty?? I have important info about it!!!

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

McNugget Buddy posted:

It's important to note that Pfizer's 3rd-dose data shows huge increases for titers against Wild Type and Beta after one week, but their figures showing a huge increase in titers against Delta was at the one month mark.

So it's super important to not get infected in the 4 weeks after the third shot.

You sure on that? I thought it was antibodies started fading a month after the dose and the body relies on tcells and whatnot to make more antibodies later

Edit Steve yun made same point

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
My friends school announced that mouthpieces on brass instruments count as masks so they can have full band practice (safely)

His wife reported them to the state board of education in hopes the school gets stripped of accreditation

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
What do you guys think real cases are at

Like last fall.testinf was pretty good so those 200k days were probably true 250k? And the early spring of 2020 were only like 30k but really 300k daily when you looked at deaths after the fact ?

So now it's probably in between that, and what, these 150k are really 450k?

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

Lazy fucks couldn't even be bothered to make the stupid tokenistic concessions that had already been agreed upon. From the previous thread:

Yeah the school district used those types of masks last year + only let one instrument group practice per session to space them out. Flute players had face shields too

All that's gone now

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

SpaceDrake posted:

alright, but. im sorry cspam, i have to realpost for a minute here

I'm actually super loving worried about the next 6-8 weeks. like. it is now virtually guaranteed that millions of children are going to be infected with covid-19 — probably north of 75% of the entire school-age population, especially the elementary demographic — and the sheer overload of the health system this will cause is going to kill tens of thousands of children in the space of a month or two. I am deadass actually expecting that we are going to be facing down a hundred thousand dead children by some point in October. and I have no loving idea what happens after that. what happens after the biggest child mortality crisis in this country in more than a century, and this one self-manufactured.

like, the leadership and certain parts of the bourgeoisie are going to try to not give a poo poo beyond platitudes, and at least at first I expect a Sandy Hook-esque shrug, but by the time the death wave really sets in, even at only like 50,000 dead that's going to be six digits worth of parents who are just. just totally and completely out of their minds with grief and rage. and power will try and do nothing, and. they're going to want to express their anger.

i'm not predicting ~~civil war~~ because i don't expect it to be a war; war implies some level of organization. i just keep imagining this white-hot ball of rage erupting all across the country, and. it'll just be people doing poo poo because gently caress it, our children are dead, our world has already ended, and so far nobody has given a gently caress. well we'll make you give a gently caress.

like. tell me the molochian virus furnace we're about to shovel 60 million children into isn't going to result in massive child death, cspam. tell me the next few months I see ahead of us is just me doom-braining. :smith:

Every parent I've talked to is far more worried about rolling quarantines and their job firing them because their kid is at home than they are about their kid getting sick

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

A> it's funny that you can see the Sturgis boom and waves last year
B> wonder what caused the surge in what looks like St. Louis in July

I'd totally forgotten about Michigan's spring wave, they were the only state where that seemingly happened, and with no explanation of it

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

I was expecting this to be a 2020 post. I love the obsession with Studies

One weird part about masks is even people who know better, like my friend who works at p&g in a clean room and has a PAPR, thinks there's no real way to protect kids in school. I mentioned kf94s and he did a double take because he hadnt even considered it since 100% of messaging the last 17 months is about how people don't deserve actual protective masks

He was also pissed that he and his wife (works at Merck making vaccine precursors) got classified as 1c and got vaccines months after everyone else despite having to be on site the whole pandemic making the literal essentials (him- cleaning supplies)

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Google Butt posted:

anyone stopped doing certain activities in order to reduce the chance of injury that may land you in the hallway of your local er again?

I kept the 4 wheeler in 3rd gear when driving around without a helmet

Also stopped doing handstands

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

A wise man once said this is a pandemic of testing

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

kalensc posted:

For almost a decade I ran an ultimate frisbee league which used university fields (Concordia) but was open to both students and the public. We last played on March 8th, 2020.

Some players reached out to ask if we were starting up again. Before replying "lol, no" I went to check the uni website and see if anything had been updated recently.

Oh


Oh goddamnit you idiots

Welp, time to start raising hell.

Just run the league normally and say people can go maskless if they know they'll be 6 foot distanced, then drop your shoulder through them as you catch the frisbee and stare them down when they're on the ground

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

U-DO Burger posted:

mamma mia, that's a lotta 9/11s!

I like the delayed offset, fosorb what's the ratio you're using to match the two curves? 1.7%?

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

fosborb posted:

just matches on the peak of both. I know I at least was expecting the ratio to change this wave, but so far it really isn't. my initial guess is that vaccinated people aren't really testing either, so it's still primarily testing and deaths of unvaccinated people

yep that's why i think real cases are at least 300k daily, we're just seeing way, way way more asymptomatics than ever before. and with masking gone its made it easier for the unvaccinated to catch when they went a whole year without doing so

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

uhoh

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Shere posted:

I hadn't heard from my mom in a couple weeks and it's because she decided that she'd be going on vacation to the Florida panhandle starting today and 1) knew how I'd react if she told me and 2) couldn't not tell me. So she waited until she was already there to do so. She brought her unvaccinated husband with her. My brother told me she lied to me about being vaccinated, too. lol. lmao.

:sever:

My immune compromised (on humira) 77 year old stepmother in law and 70 year old father in law flew to Florida a few weeks ago. I gave the 77 year old a n95 , the 70 year old refused since he's vaccinated

They then just didn't leave the kids house they were visiting since they got scared


Also isn't regeneron the poo poo that Works and is super expensive and saved trump?

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Is he the most famous person to die of it?

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

gregday posted:

John Prine?

who

I may as well name the local bbq guy who died last year

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Stereotype posted:

i thought the panic would be this week, but i underestimated just how good america is at ignoring massive existential problems. next week then i guess

95% of people think they're gonna be fine, either because they think covid isn't real or that vaccines are foolproof

95% of people are right. The issue is those groups are different

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/vaccination-zip-code

this is a cool map. about what you expect with rural/suburban divide, then the urban divide you also expect to see (but no one is allowed to admonish anyone for)

im pretty sure my school district is in the best vaccinated place in the state, and my zip code is one of the best in the state as well that isn't some tiny rural fluke. woop woop

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Thoguh posted:

The grocery store pharmacy that I got my shots at sent out an email detailing what they consider to make you eligible for a third shot

So I guess Max will be going to CVS if the boosters don't get approved for some dumbshit reason.

its weird they dont consider humira or similar anti arthritis stuff to be immunosuppressants, unless thats what that last line is

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Der Meister posted:

remote learning not allowed





how are people so loving stupid

a bunch of state boards of education mandated no remote learning option, even in true blue illinois. illinois did allow for kids to remote learn if they're quarantined but gave no details - apparently theyre supposed to just watch via webcam as the teacher teaches normally

every drat parent is going insane right now worrying about nonstop closures and the uncertainty behind it. second straight year where absolutely no conrete plan is in place

i assume the plan for all the southern antimask schools is to give every kid covid, close for a week, and reopen and just say its like if chickenpox hit the whole school at once

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

Hospitalizations didn’t start spiking last year until late September iirc? We’re already riding that rollercoaster and deaths are absolutely going to follow soon.

Imho this is all on the CDC telling everyone the pandemic was essentially over in may. Any stupid rear end in a top hat could have predicted this outcome.

we havent even had the coastal and upper midwest states get hit yet. ny, cali, illinois, michigan, ohio, pa all can take the hospitalizations to the moon once the it spreads more outside the SEC states

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

durrneez posted:

does anyone else know anyone who still uses cloth masks? I know a couple people who do and it’s just…. motherfuckin WHY?????

everyone in my turbo lib, best vaccinated area in the state uses cloth masks, especially on kids. masking is very common, its just done wrong. hell, my spouse and kid go with cloth masks 99% of the time
a few go surgical, fewer go 94 and up (almost all of those people are very old). i've never seen a respirator

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Schnorkles posted:

i guess one of the things that's hard to express is how bad wild type got here too

something like 20% of the entire population of the area I live in had a confirmed case (which means the actual number might be more like.. 40%? 45%? at least?). hospitals were on full diversion and they were doing triage at both local medical centers.

the newspaper quadrupled in size because of the number of obituaries one week.

its 'funny' that the R of delta (with a population intermittently masking and being mildly cautious) is lower than the true R of original flavor that we saw on cruise ships where no one took any precautions at all. so much of this wave is just a hidden iceberg of infectious people with no symptoms and no one caring about that, even though thats exactly why everyone panicked a year and a half ago

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Jon Irenicus posted:

the question is: why isn't it exploding yet in places like PA, NY, MA, and MI yet? I assume Delta got a firm grip on the unvaccinated in the greater south, but Open Biden happened everywhere

weather. it hit arizona and florida hard last summer when they were all in air conditioning . michigan is doing much better than illinois the last few weeks because they have more outdoor life, that kind of thing

and i think a lot of schools are also back in the south already but the midwest is just getting rolling on it

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mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Thoguh posted:

Plus with testing being in the dumpster and people in general being less inclined to worry about non-severe symptoms I bet we are catching a way lower portion of mild COVID cases as well.

Yeah the cfr is pretty much the same as always, look at the goon tracker matching curves so easily regardless of variant

Means we aren't catching barely any asymptomatic vaccinated cases

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