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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer
Edit: Oops, wrong thread

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PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

papa horny michael posted:

Hope they do better in the future than the current failed strategies you outlined.

Hey man, they made a tranche of funding. That's the best thing an administration can possibly do.

*hiding press releases about rental assistance funding programs under the sofa cushions*

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

mod sassinator posted:

It's tiring to be two years into the worst pandemic in our modern history, one that has now killed more Americans than the last greatest pandemic, and still have people claiming we've done the best we possibly could and the administration is beyond criticism.

China has only lost 4k people to this pandemic--how about we follow whatever they've done instead of just throw our hands up and say there's nothing we can do, this is the best possible outcome.

We're probably too hosed at this point, ya? Even if the political will existed to take the Zero Covid® approach that's proved extremely effective in China, the U.S. is riddled with COVID to a point that we couldn't contact trace.

Maybe in a few months after it's burned through ...

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

HonorableTB posted:

Having to use multiple illegal VPNs to access non-state internet would suck and that's not even getting into the social credit 1984 poo poo. China is not some utopian paradise, they have/had mobile execution vans for fucks sake

Yeah, it's a bummer that the only effective way to stop COVID is through execution vans and social credit systems. But, as we all know, those were the key pillars of China's Zero COVID policy. The price is just too high so we'll just have to surrender to COVID instead.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

HonorableTB posted:

You forgot to weld people into their buildings and heavily restrict internal travel on top of the already restrictive hukou system

*looks at the scoreboard*

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Platystemon posted:

Can anyone say with a straight face that the last thread was worse?

It’s pretty funny that that’s true of the thread where the OP himself was threadbanned.

Didn't the last thread have someone talking about how they tested positive for covid but they were gonna go to brunch anyway because they felt fine?

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Platystemon posted:

That was the GBS thread, and as bizzarre as it is, she was completely in compliance with CDC guidance, then and now.



This does not fill me with confidence in the CDC guidelines.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Tacier posted:

Apologies if this has been covered, but based on this article it sounds like our best data so far suggests that 100% of Covid cases, mild or severe, result in some amount of persistent brain damage of unknown duration.

https://theconversation.com/prelimi...it-lasts-166145

Not trying to fearmonger, but is there something I’m missing or is this horrifying news? The sample size is huge and they have baseline scans for everyone involved in the study.

Yikes! Yeah, that is horrifying. We should take some steps to avoid this, I think!

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Platystemon posted:

We are only allowed to use weak science to imperil kids.

It is never O.K. to take the cautious approach when there is uncertainty.

We should definitely err on the side of open 'er up, infect all the kids, everyone's getting it, it's endemic, *cough cough* must be allergies

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

One study being used in a way you don’t like doesn’t mean you get to just throw out the validity of all studies and just believe whatever you like. Vaccines aren’t fake because you saw a Twitter once that said six feet is as safe as three feet.

What do you think I'm trying to say here?

We should err on the side of extreme caution (ala China) because we know so little. There's an insane argument that keeps cropping up we should continue doing what we're doing (even though everyone here knows it won't work) because we don't have enough evidence to pick another path with certainty. It's gonna take years for us to fully understand what works best against covid, and meanwhile, covid spreads and kills very fast.

PostNouveau fucked around with this message at 05:12 on Sep 28, 2021

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

VitalSigns posted:

E: the Rt for the black death dropped below 1 eventually

We don't have enough evidence to say that this wasn't caused by forcing children to smoke and fart jars. More study is needed.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Chin Strap posted:

But I got Pfizer 6 months ago and am low risk 36 years old so I can't get a booster yet right?

You can't, but John or Jane Smith, an unemployed, uninsured person who left their ID at home today can go get a shot right now.

Phigs posted:

Worth remembering that the US booster schedule of getting one 6 months after the 2nd jab got released around 8 months after the first round of people received their 2nd jab.

Yeah, another reason why no one should feel bad about booster banditing.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

How are u posted:

Why is this worth remembering? What is it that you are interpreting from this timeline of events?

I got my 2nd Moderna dose at the end of March, but no pharmacy will give me a booster right now. So I'm coming up on 7 months out when they say the optimal booster schedule is 6 months. Who knows how long they'll drag their feet and just flush vaccines into the sewer system rather than let me put a booster in my arm. Maybe I'll be 9 months from my shot when they finally get around to it?

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

brugroffil posted:

I do think it's funny that people still toss around "doomer" as a pejorative as we close in on 1M dead Americans in less than two years with no real sign of slowing down in the near future.

Goddamn panicking doomers. I need my off-ramps so Brayden can take his mask off in his class of 30 other unvaccinated children. Grandma needs to hear about how great he's doing in school over Christmas break.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Solkanar512 posted:

it’s about whining how loving powerless you think you are while ignoring what you can do

It's true.

I'm triple vaxxed and hunkered down, but if I weren't such a doomer I would shrink down to the size of a blood cell and defeat the omicron variant in hand-to-hand combat like Master Chief.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

mod sassinator posted:

100 days to be available to start a ~6 month approval process

The FDA has made no statements or changes to their process to speed it up.

I thought the FDA/CDC said that variant covid mRNA vaccines would have a bunch of steps waived in the approval process?

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer
I remember people saying Delta was milder and also going "where are the deaths?" a week after it got here.

We'll know more in a few weeks but it seems too early to tell if omicron is milder or not

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

TheJunkyardGod posted:

Welp, we made it this far but unfortunately my wife tested positive. Working in a preschool pretty much made it inevitable.

I just tested negative and my kids have tests scheduled for the morning. She's vaccinated and really only mildly symptomatic. We're doing our best to isolate but it seems like only a matter of time before we're all sick. My oldest has both shots and the two younger ones got their first shot a week ago.

Put her in a hotel to quarantine if you can afford it. Those younger ones don't have the vaccine up and running in them yet.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer
I mean, you're also going to spread it around if you get a breakthrough infection, which seems like what people should be most worried about.

"It's just a cold" I seem to remember hearing something like that in March 2020 from the Trump folks.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Tiny Timbs posted:

Sounds like you're talking about the "safe to say vaccines don't work" post which you don't seem to think applies because it doesn't have a swear word in it or link to reddit

How much of that poo poo do you think is OK to tolerate in a thread just because people can always disagree with it

Everyone loves D&D, the subforum full of tattletales who desperately try to get each other banned for posting in it.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Vorik posted:

Great news

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1468569829594607617?s=20

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1468584931978842126?s=20

Sucks that 2 doses offer some, but not strong protection, but it's good that Omicron breakthroughs seem to be pretty mild anyways.

Seems like good news for, like, any individual who is boosted, but "pretty mild" breakthrough Omicron is still a disease you can spread quickly to the non-boosted or non-vaccinated population or give to other boosted people for them to spread around.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Arivia posted:

I’m in Canada. I had severe covid and was on a ventilator at the height of our Delta wave in April. I’m still struggling with post-covid symptoms including brain fog, fatigue, and muscle weakness/lack of energy. I have multiple comorbidities for Covid, including obesity and sleep apnea (second one is congenital and lead to the first).

I will very likely die if I get Covid again. I do not participate in risky activities and have only travelled farther than 10 km from my home once since March 2020 (for a class I had to attend in person)

Canada’s booster shot rules exclude me from getting a booster until February, if the provincial government allows. As I am not 60+, Indigenous, or have an autoimmune disorder or live in long term care, I am ineligible until six months after my second vaccine dose (which was later than it was for many people of my age group as they announced availability for my age while I was in the hospital in April, so I had to recover and be cleared to get the vaccine, then get it).

I will very likely die if I get Covid again and yet Canada comparatively has lots of boosters compared to other nations. The US has repeatedly withheld vaccines and medical supplies from Canada for its own use, in contravention of the long-standing trade and diplomatic arrangements between the two countries.

So yeah, there’s someone with booster access issues for you.

I remember when Biden said he supported a TRIPS waiver a million years ago

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Morrow posted:

I had JnJ and I'm getting my moderna booster today. Where does this leave me in terms of protection? Allegedly three shots is good, but what about two?

You may as well finish that moderna sequence, right? That decision's all upside

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Barry Foster posted:

That article is a week old.

I get the feeling the media is going to be learning anew that hospitalizations/deaths are a lagging indicator every 6 months for the rest of this pandemic.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

kiimo posted:

I'm sure this has been mentioned but I had J&J March 17th and just got my Moderna booster like 30 minutes ago.

Should I have lied and said I wasn't vaccinated and act like I'm starting from the beginning and gotten a Moderna - 1st shot?

Now that I have a moderna booster should I boost again in 3 weeks to be safer?

Yes, you should have lied.

No, 3 weeks is too soon if you got a J&J boost.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Gio posted:

The only reason Certain Individuals would like Others to shut the gently caress up about China is because China proves that a better world is possible for all the “nothing can be done to prevent mass death” crowd. Very interesting to see how this crowd has pivoted to a lot of the same lines regurgitated by MAGA swine, including…

“People in the hospital are there incidentally.”

“Cases don’t matter. Where are the deaths?? Where are the hospitalizations??”

“How old were they?? What are their comorbidities?? Did they get a booster??” (in response to any post about vaccinated people dying.

“COVID is now just a bad flu to the vaccinated!”

Nevermind the constant dehumanization of the unvaccinated, thousands of whom are dying daily. Our hospital system is on the brink of collapse and our government has abdicated all responsibility for managing this pandemic as it actively encourages businesses to throw people into the meat grinder, but yes let’s focus on how AWFUL and AUTHORITARIAN China’s response has been.

It’s stomach churning how sociopathic some posts here are.

It's like precisely the same poo poo that was being said by the Trump crowd in late March 2020. It's maddening for sure.

Let's just ignore all the kids under 5, the disabled, the medically vulnerable who need society to just not roll over and accept cases spreading like wildfire in order for them to live any kind of semi-normal life.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

We have to weigh the costs of school closures against the benefits of having all the kids get COVID from each other within 2 days of school being open and then schools immediately shutting down.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

dwarf74 posted:

I think any comparison of Trump 2020 vs Biden 2021 is colored by the obvious lack of Trump 2021 and Biden 2020 data.

Look to Fox News's broadcasts in 2021 for what official covid policy would look like under a 2nd Trump term.

Nobody's giving Biden a free pass, but the false equivalence is just ludicrous.

I don't see the point of attempting the comparison other than to attempt to give cover to the current administration for its myriad failures. People just want to point and Trump and go "well it could be worse" and ignore that the administration has hosed so many things up and is currently loving things up right now as we speak.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

brugroffil posted:

Better almost two years late than never, I suppose

https://twitter.com/bylenasun/statu...ingawful.com%2F

I had no idea this hadn't happened already :psyduck:

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Mellow Seas posted:

We're not even halfway to 2 million; we've obviously botched the gently caress out of this wave but "hopefully" it should only take a couple hundred thousand more. If the fallout from omicron results in a better public health response - disallowing large events, encouraging respirators (oh hey, some good news on that!), universal masking - then we can stay well under 2 million.

I'm sure they could break down excess deaths and try to approximate a real death toll that's much larger than the official numbers. But it'll be years and take a lot of research and even then probably won't be super accurate.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Youth Decay posted:

Some of those Chinese COVID camps look tolerable. Though it is clear to me that China is massively fudging their case numbers and I do wonder about their death numbers now...

This one, on the other hand, looks like loving livestock pens. If you weren't positive going into the camp you definitely will be after.
https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1481360043098673152

Per the twitter person (can't confirm if this part is legit) they charge people for the accommodation and food as well as the daily tests.

Can you confirm any of it is legit? Because I've seen 4 or 5 videos purporting to be of something heinous being done by China in response to covid and then people in the replies debunking them as unrelated.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Atopian posted:

But so far it's been a solid demonstration that thorough vaccination, mask enforcement, and contact tracing, can beat covid. And places that don't, didn't have government that cared to make the effort.

OK, but what if I showed you a video of a prison camp sourced only to an account called @TruthAbtChina and told you it was a COVID concentration camp? Would that change your mind?

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer
The cherry on top of that awful Walensky statement is that the study she's talking about it loving garbage. The Death Panel podcast went into it on their last Patreon episode:

- Nonrepresentative "convenience" sample
- The sample included only 36 breakthrough deaths
- Over 65 is a "risk factor" in the study (the study doesn't call them comorbidities)
- The report itself says they did not have enough data to analyze the risk factors and that conclusions shouldn't be drawn from it.

The Death Panel crew's point was that she did not HAVE to mention this study because it in no way gives you a definitive answer about anything. It's not like there's overwhelming evidence she just HAD to talk about.

She cherry picked some bullshit in order to say "well only sick and old people will die from breakthrough infections, and their lives don't matter, so everyone get back to work."

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Sharks Eat Bear posted:

- the sample seems ok? Footnote from the publication:

They only have 36 deaths to study from a nonrepresentative sample. They may have a bunch of people in the dataset, but this subset, which they draw major conclusions of the study from, is barely anyone.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Sharks Eat Bear posted:

How is the sample non-representative? What conclusions are limited by having only 36 breakthrough deaths? For reference, here are the first two paragraphs of the authors’ conclusions in the discussion section:

I don't know the details on why it's non-representative. I'm just taking the authors' word for it:

quote:

Finally, PHD-SR represents a convenience sample of health care facilities, limiting generalizability to the U.S. population.

I don't know what the math involved is for analyzing risk factors for only a handful of deaths, but the authors also say "the number of deaths alone was too small to allow analysis of risk factors in this subgroup." But they went ahead and did use those cases in one of the main conclusions of the study.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

PT6A posted:

Did my first day of in-person work in like a month. We are never getting out of this.

1) So many dick-nosers
2) Even the people who seem to take proper masking seriously unmask in public areas to eat and drink (not me! I went out to my car!)
3) Very few "good" masks

Looking at all this crap, I still like my odds of avoiding any variant of COVID, overall. I do not think contracting this disease is inevitable, I think it's difficult to avoid and requires forethought, but it's not impossible. I might yet be wrong and get it eventually, but I'm going to do everything I can to avoid it.

Half-mask respirator time, buddy

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

PT6A posted:

Sadly, I don't think this will work for me. I'm a pilot, so I need my mic to pick up my voice and I don't think it would work with that thing. Although maybe it I put it right against the diaphragm, it would.

There are some respirator aficionados in the CSPAM thread; you should see if they have any recommendations. I remember someone posting about models that have speaking diaphragms that they said work well, but I don't remember specifically what models.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Sharks Eat Bear posted:

This is not a statement that the sample is not representative. That it’s a convenience sample (and tbh I’m not even entirely sure why the authors use that term for this sampling methodology) could potentially introduce bias, but this seems unlikely to be a major limitation given the description of the data source and the sample size. Again we’re not talking about people opting into an online poll, this is a massive hospital claims database that per the authors captures 20% of the country’s inpatient admissions from hundreds of hospitals throughout the country.

That statement is a snippet of a longer sentence:

They’re saying that the death count was too small to analyze individual risk factors in the same way that they did for the composition “severe outcome” endpoint. They’re not saying that their finding that deaths were overwhelming concentrated in people with >=4 risk factors is invalid because of only having 36 deaths.

Again not saying any of this as a defense of walensky, I’d be happy if she was canned, just trying to be accurate about what constitutes a “garbage” study and maybe cast some doubt on the authority of the death panel podcasters (who I’ve never heard of and don’t have any opinion on outside of this discussion) if that’s the type of thinking they’re pushing.

As they note, people with chronic conditions might be more likely to seek health care which would unbalance it. The authors aren't even trying to claim this is generalizable; I'm not sure why you are.

To me, this is silly though. It's only 36 deaths. I don't think I need to go find the exact math to know that is not a lot for a study like this.

Your reading of the composite part does not seem to follow to me. They seem to be saying the severity of the risk factors varied a lot in patients, so that should be kept in mind when reading the severe outcomes table.

Edit: Also their number of deaths being that low is very weird. The database they use represents 20% of admissions, but only about half of the facilities in the database reported vaccination status. So we can maybe assume there's 10% of admissions in the database with vaccination status for the sake of talking about it.

Alright, so in 10% of admissions, they have only 36 breakthrough deaths as of Oct. 2021. Texas alone had ~2,200 breakthrough covid deaths by Oct. 2021. They're clearly not even close to catching 10% of the breakthrough deaths.

PostNouveau fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Jan 16, 2022

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Sharks Eat Bear posted:

It may be true that people with chronic conditions seek healthcare more than those without, but isn’t that true in the general population too? Doesn’t seem like a sampling issue to me.

You’re mistaken about the composite part. They’re saying that each component (diagnosis of acute respiratory failure, need for NIV, ICU admission, or death) that gets bucketed into the composite “severe covid-19 outcome” is not necessarily the same severity so the composite outcome that they use sacrifices some nuance in order to gain a larger number of events and allow for analysis of individual risk factors’ contributions to the rate of “severe covid-19 outcomes”, as shown in the forest plot of figure 1. Their comment on the low # of deaths is directly related to this analysis of individual risk factors.

Don’t have time right now to dig into Texas example but it’s a fair point that the database appears to capture lower than 20% of overall inpatient admissions. That said, my original point that I still maintain is that this is not a garbage study, and that its limitations are not nearly as problematic as you/death panel podcasters imply. It’s a very solid study and discussion of its limitations is totally fair game, but saying that it’s garbage and should be ignored by public health officials is misguided.

It seems like a sampling issue to the people who wrote the study, so I'mma just trust them on it.

Your explanation makes no sense to me. Aren't these components binary? You were admitted to the ICU or not, you needed NIV or not. They're pointing out the inherent problems in the data in that section, and the big red siren one for deaths is that there ain't many of them to examine. But then they go ahead and draw some conclusions from them anyway, and now those conclusions that they shouldn't have drawn are getting blasted across the country by the CDC director to try to convince us we shouldn't care as much about the risk of vaccinated breakthroughs because the people who die were as good as dead already. Drawing conclusions based on very, very little is a garbage thing for a researcher to do, and them doing it has produced some garbage real world outcomes, so it looks like a garbage study to me.

It appears to be drastically less than 20% of overall inpatient admissions based on the number of deaths in it.

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PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Sharks Eat Bear posted:

That’s an interesting take, do you also trust them on their finding of breakthrough deaths being concentrated among people with more comorbidities?

Nah, they're basing it on only 36 deaths.

Sharks Eat Bear posted:

“the components of the composite outcome are not necessarily of equal severity” = the components of the composite outcome are acute resp failure, icu admission, non invasive ventilation and death. These components are not of equal severity. NIV is not as severe as death, but they’re counted equally in the composite measure.

“And results should be interpreted accordingly” = when interpreting the composite outcome, one must acknowledge that it does not distinguish between NIV and death, and this could in theory lead to situations where group A has 20 “severe covid-19 outcomes” comprising 19 NIVs and 1 death and group B has 10 “severe covid-19 outcomes” comprising 9 deaths and 1 ICU. This means group A has 2x the rate of severe outcomes but I’m not sure its clear that people from group A are worse off than group B. This is the drawback of a composite endpoint, which they’ve knowingly accepted as a trade off because it means they get to increase the number of events for analysis by lumping them together.

This makes a lot more sense, thanks!

Sharks Eat Bear posted:

“the number of deaths alone was too small to allow analysis of risk factors in this subgroup.” = I will grant that this is poorly worded. I believe that they’re stating they can’t do a detailed analysis of individual risk factors like they do for the composite endpoint as presented in figure 1. But the way it’s worded, i can see how it would be read that they shouldn’t even do analysis of aggregate frequency of risk factors among the 36 deaths, as presented in figure 2.

Yeah, I mean my reading is bolstered by the fact that they only have 36 corpses to poke at here, and it's pretty obvious that ain't enough to do the individual risk factor analysis or the aggregate frequency analysis.

Sharks Eat Bear posted:

Their finding about the presence of more risk factors among severe cases including deaths as compared to non severe cases is legitimate

I dunno seems like they'll need someone to do a much more robust study to say it about deaths, and until then they shouldn't announce big conclusions about deaths.

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