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Fame Douglas posted:Are there really that many people into overzealous parents on school boards? It was the #1 issue - above economy, coronavirus, and jobs - in every poll from the last week.
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Nov 2, 2021 14:57
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The Rx deal is worse than the original House version, but weirdly is a lot better than the initial compromise they were floating a month ago. https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1455607128308256773 Still unclear what actual immigration changes can make it into the bill. They might be able to basically do a version of the DREAM act, but everything involving changing the qualifications for the 1986 immigration reform to make new people eligible can't be passed through reconciliation. So, I'm not sure what Pelosi is optimistic about. https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1455606002267660291 The SALT people and the deficit people aren't 100% the same, but it is still hilarious that they are going to raise the SALT cap for 5 years by using budgetary gimmickery to count "savings" from when the cap was going to expire in 2025 to fund it without removing anything else or raising taxes. Nobody who complained about budget gimmickery before will complain about it, either. The SALT cap raise also only applies to people making less than $400k per year, so you don't have 70% of the benefit going to people making $500k and above. But, it's not like people making $90k who own an expensive house in Boston are impoverished. Nothing got cut in exchange for it and they put in an income cap, so it is probably the best version of a dumb policy. Schumer says they are looking for an initial vote by November 15th (this has probably doomed the bill given the track record of announcing deadlines related to votes on this). Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 20:16
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Mind_Taker posted:Retroactive SALT is three times bigger than climate spending, that’s how. Where are you getting this? Climate spending is ~$565 billion in the recon bill (plus an additional $150 billion in the bipartisan bill for a total of $715 billion) The SALT plan is ~$115 billion. rscott posted:It looks like they're extending the SALT cap through 2031 to do a little CBO scoring magic, I'm sure they'll end up passing something in reconciliation next year to outright repeal it to keep the donors happy It was already set to expire automatically in 2025. Because this version has an income cap and only lasts 5 years, the gimmick they are doing is to count the year after 2025 when the SALT could would have been repealed entirely as "savings based on current law." This version is about 30% the cost of a complete cap removal, so it is "less spending compared to current law" because the new cap will be in place in 2025 instead of a completely uncapped version. They are basically removing the cap from "total amount you can deduct," but implementing a cap on eligibility based on income. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 20:27
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Willa Rogers posted:Lmao, called it. I've been posting about the compromise plan for weeks. I even said last week that it will probably be in there because they can use budgetary gimmicks to not cut anything else in exchange for it. You're having a weird meltdown over this when you don't seem to know what it is. The SALT proposal is only 25% as large as an actual cap repeal because it has an income cap - it's not the return to the pre-2017 standard you're thinking of. 70% of the benefit of the original uncapped SALT deduction went to people making $500k or more, but this one has an income cap that requires you to make less than $400k. The Rx exclusion exemption is for biologics. The Rx reform is actually the literal opposite of what you said - the primary benefit goes to the people with the most expensive forms of cancer to treat. The people who need orphan Rx or mid-priced Rx in their exclusivity period/biologics are the people who get screwed in this version relative to the original H.R. 3 plan. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 20:47
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Willa Rogers posted:Once again, my predictions were validated. You literally described the opposite of the Rx drug pricing plan's impact. It's people on mid-tier Rx, orphan diseases, and newer biologics who are going to benefit the least. Generally, when you describe something that is the exact opposite of what happened, it is not accurate to describe that as validated. You also don't seem to realize that the SALT change you were predicting didn't actually happen and think that the version that did happen is 400% larger than it actually is and doesn't have an income cap. Willa Rogers posted:Let's see how your This is your other weird thing where you think accurately describing public policy has something to do with polls and you dodge the fact that you don't actually understand what you were talking about, you were giving bad info to other posters, and then try to excuse yourself from not knowing by arguing about election results and doing team sports mentality drive-bys. Just accurately describe the thing and don't do weird meltdowns. You can like or hate the thing, you can think it will impact election results or not, or you can think that it will impact the polls or not. But, you just need to accurately say what it is. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:05 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 21:00
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explanations roll next year at the polls. 
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rscott posted:Where are you getting $115 billion from? The CFRB says $475 That estimate is full repeal with no income cap. The draft version that the Senate Budget committee released has an income cap of $400,000. Twitter and The Hill say no decision has been made, though. So, they might not use the Senate Budget Committee draft. quote:House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) told reporters Tuesday that discussions on the SALT deduction cap are ongoing. He said the details of a deal depend in large part on Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.). Twitter and NBC say no decision has been made, though. So, they might not use the Senate Budget Committee draft and instead do the other compromise they were floating last week or a full reversion through 2025. If they do actually fully repeal it with no income cap, then that figure is correct and they will also need to raise more revenue to pay for it because the budget gimmicks can only cover a maximum of about $400 billion. It would still be less than the climate spending in the bill, though. Edit: Actually, since the current revenue projections are about $230 billion over the spending in the bill, they could use budget gimmickery + some of the gap there to cover a full repeal without having to raise new revenue. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 21:15
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This makes Amazon the only American company left with a commercial facial recognition AI that they plan to sell (though, they have been delaying it for years and have a temporary ban on selling to to law enforcement) Not sure how significant that will be in the long run. Other countries are still researching and selling facial recognition A.I. and you can't stop software from spreading. Plus, lots of companies have promised not to sell the A.I. facial recognition software publicly, but still use it privately. So, it will still exist and likely end up public in some form eventually. I think the main issue for privacy concerns is going to be preventing state and local governments from adopting it for police. quote:Facebook plans to shut down its facial recognition program https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/02/facebook-will-shut-down-program-that-automatically-recognizes-people-in-photos-and-videos-delete-data.html
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Nov 2, 2021 22:01
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Hellblazer187 posted:Hi, I have a question about healthcare while living in the United States. I'm from the US but I've lived out of the country for like ten years, and specifically since before the ACA was really in full effect. We don't have a general USPol thread anymore, which is where I would post this. I know there are people in this thread who understand US health policy better than most. If this is not kosher to ask about here, I'll move it. Also, I can tie it back to real US Current Events because if I get the (bad) answers I'm expecting, or really any answer, I can say "Democrats should really fix that" or something. Yes, there are. Although, with Medicaid expansion and the new ACA enhancements you are now in a weird position where you can end up with more medical debt (not an exact 1:1 translation because having medical debt is different than medical bankruptcy, but you need some medical debt to have a bankruptcy related medical costs) if you make $55k per year than you do if you make $20k per year.
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Nov 2, 2021 22:11
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Nix Panicus posted:I would love to see that source Leon was quoting that said it was a limited cap repeal. He seemed very confident, so it must have some excellent sourcing Bloomberg says the plan under discussion is the version from the original Senate Budget Committee proposal: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-02/salt-cap-negotiations-zero-in-on-three-year-suspension-of-limit Link to the Senate Budget Committee Proposal: https://www.atr.org/sites/default/files/assets/Sanders%20Budget%20Proposal.pdf (Cost of $120 billion over 10 years and capped at income less than $400k)  Bernie Sanders himself saying that he is discussing SALT with income limits: https://twitter.com/davidrlurie/status/1455641653268647942 https://twitter.com/FinancialJuice/status/1455656455625904131 AOC says that the version they have been discussing in the House Ways and Means Committee is based on the Senate Budget Committee Proposal. Also, they say that no final decision has been made.
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Nov 2, 2021 23:04
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Polls closed in VA. Initial Exit Polls from CBS: quote:Was Biden a factor in your vote? McAuliffe has a lead of 21-24% in early vote. Youngkin has a lead of 8-12% in election day vote. ~37% of the vote was early vote. Edit: Additional Exit Poll Questions: 62% of voters say the VA economy is "Good" or "Excellent" 68% of voters were over age 45. Black Voters: McAuliffe: 88% Youngkin: 11% White Women: McAuliffe: 42% Youngkin: 56% Suburban voters are 62% of the electorate. Youngkin winning suburban men. McAuliffe winning suburban women. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 00:26 on Nov 3, 2021 |
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Nov 3, 2021 00:16
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BRJohnson posted:I don't understand the consistent focus on Virginia in here (not that it bothers me). Just trying to understand. Only 2 states have off-year elections for Governor. VA and NJ. VA is a competitive state that frequently switches between Republican and Democratic Governors. NJ is not a purple/competitive state. That's why.
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Nov 3, 2021 01:17
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Sanguinia posted:It's a sign that Trump's chances of returning to power and the Republican party turning our country into a single-party dictatorship due to voter apathy are much higher than we thought. Voter turnout looks like it will be a record high for a Gubernatorial race. It's going to be around 55% instead of around the 75% it was in 2020, but it's not really a voter apathy problem. Democratic turnout is surprisingly good for an off-year election. It's just that Republican turnout in rural areas is massive and Youngkin is only losing the suburbs by 10 points instead of the 20+ Trump lost them.
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Nov 3, 2021 01:28
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turnip kid posted:Bad candidates with nonexistent messages don’t win elections in states like Virginia. Why are you upset at people who accept reality? Yeah it loving sucks the Democrats are a mess. T-Mac has literally already comfortably won an election for Governor of Virginia on an even vaguer platform with no accomplishments in 2013. So, that's clearly not the case.
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Nov 3, 2021 01:42
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In a rare case of "your individual vote actually did matter" the left-wing candidate running on a $1,000 month UBI, Medicare for All, and a wealth tax in the FL20th primary just "won" by 31 votes. It triggers an automatic recount under Florida state law, though. So, she hasn't officially won yet. It's a D+32 district, so whoever wins the primary will win the general.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:53
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Nix Panicus posted:India Walton probably thought the same thing. Turns out you can always get knifed in the back by conservatives angry someone progressive slipped through! The incumbent Mayor who has already been elected Mayor 5 times winning re-election is different than a random nobody winning a seat in Congress through a write-in campaign. Honestly, if you are organized enough and run a campaign strong enough to get sent to Congress as a write-in candidate, having never held federal office before, and when your opponent is the only name on the ballot, then you probably deserve to win.
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Nov 3, 2021 03:05
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Minneapolis overwhelmingly votes down referendum to convert the police department to a public safety department. Austin, Texas also overwhelmingly votes down a referendum to make 2/3 (!?!?!?!?) of their budget dedicated to law enforcement. Not sure what the organizers of that referendum would even do with that much money if they won. Or what the city would do to make up for all of the money they were already legally obligated to spend without raising taxes. https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1455718142706061312
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Nov 3, 2021 03:15
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Here's a weird quirk. The VA Governor race set a turnout record - looking like it will be between 55% and 60%. The Buffalo Mayor race looks like it had incredibly low turnout. Looking like it will be between 9% and 11% of registered voters. https://twitter.com/WBEN/status/1455719757513207813
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Nov 3, 2021 03:26
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Eric Adams with a narrow 42 point over Sliwa in NYC. Boston Mayoral race just called - Michelle Wu to become next Mayor of Boston.
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Nov 3, 2021 03:39
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TwoQuestions posted:I don't think it would be terribly indicative of anything, the conservative movement and the Republican party have CA as the cause of all the world's ills. If someone with an R beside their name put their name on the ballot, they'd almost be a third party with as much as they'd have to have in common with the national party. Elder was basically as close to a mini-Trump as you can get for a statewide candidate in California and he lost by literally the exact same margin as "respectable moderate businessman who doesn't even advertise he is a Republican" Cox did in 2018. I don't think policies or personality really matter when partisanship is as locked in as it is in places like CA.
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Nov 3, 2021 04:16
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New York voting down same-day registration for voting and mail-in voting for some reason. https://twitter.com/morganfmckay/status/1455738924794527745
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Nov 3, 2021 05:29
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Seattle seeing another situation where the "pro-police" candidate is being driven to victory by minority voters. Kind of surprised by the Republican winning the city attorney position with such a big margin when no other Republican got close to any major elected office. Maybe a local/personal reason specific to her? I'm not really familiar with that race. https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1455754463512199171 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 05:43 on Nov 3, 2021 |
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Nov 3, 2021 05:41
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Verus posted:What prevents Biden from pardoning all victims of the war on drugs, today? 99% of them were convicted on state crimes.
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Nov 4, 2021 00:37
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp 99.5% of the federal prison population with drug charges are there for trafficking or in conjunction with other offenses. https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...ijuana-charges/ 99.7% of the people who are incarcerated for possession or mandatory minimums are in state or local jails. There were only 92 people who were convicted of any marijuana possession charges at the federal level in 2017 out of 2.3 million drug arrests. https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/annual-reports-and-sourcebooks/2017/Table33.pdf Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 01:13 on Nov 4, 2021 |
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Nov 4, 2021 01:05
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A big flaming stink posted:https://twitter.com/LavenderNRed/status/1455990165642649600 It basically just "calls for," and doesn't actually do anything, sanctions on the military leaders who arrested Ortega's opponents. It impacts 26 people and it doesn't create "an economic blockade." quote:The U.S. House of Representatives passed the bill 387-35 with strong bipartisan support following a similar vote by the Senate this week, sending it to President Joe Biden to sign into law. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-house-passes-bill-put-pressure-nicaragua-sending-bill-white-house-2021-11-03/ Should probably get a better source than Sputnik before just taking a tweet at face value.
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Nov 4, 2021 19:07
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This is such a bizarre example to use for something they can do a legitimate story about. Where have these people been getting milk for $1.99? According to Google, the average price of milk in 1990 was $2.39. Also, 12 gallons of milk per week for two people?!?! This is a promotional tweet by the actual CNN anchor and not someone making fun of it. https://twitter.com/brikeilarcnn/status/1456227125346832384
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Nov 4, 2021 19:22
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Lib and let die posted:Economic sanctions cause suffering among the most vulnerable portions of a population of the government they're imposed upon. Given the choice, I'd personally rather take a .45 to the back of the skull than starve to death. It is a non-binding resolution that applies to 27 military generals for arresting all of the major opposing Presidential candidates. In no way is the original characterization of "a bill that requires an economic blockade to punish them for having elections" by a Sputnik reporter even remotely close to accurate.
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Nov 4, 2021 19:36
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Seems like Youngkin has given national Republicans a model to run on in the midterms. https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1455948879359262725 NRCC campaign document says that they key issues candidates should highlight are: quote:- "The rights of parents to raise and educate their children according to their personal beliefs without interference from government." Lots of greatest hits, but half of the main talking points are about education, parental rights, and social issues that are rolled into "education" issues. Also interesting is no foreign policy, nothing about healthcare except the standard anti-socialized medicine line, nothing about social security, nothing about new tax cuts (just preventing Democrats from raising taxes. Although, this is probably because Biden will still be President and they are messaging with that in mind), and nothing about jobs. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:08 on Nov 4, 2021 |
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Nov 4, 2021 20:05
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Lib and let die posted:Isn't this just blaming the victims of a predatory economy? Why is it on average citizens to price map out the various distributors around them and then waste and burn fossil fuels hopping from store to store chasing the prices they can afford? Drinking over 103 pounds of milk per week (and somehow paying less for it than people did in 1990) is not really a mandatory component of a predatory economy. It's just a funny/bizarre choice to highlight. There are real issues of price increases that are more relevant to the average American. According to the USDA, the average American consumes 17 gallons of milk per year and the average household consumes 31 per year. That means these people and their kids are consuming more than 11x more milk per person than the average American and 34x more milk than an average household. It was just a funny and weird example they chose to highlight as an "average" amount of milk consumed.
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Nov 4, 2021 20:26
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Sanguinia posted:I need to get out of this hellhole country. I'm not going to lives the rest of my professional life teaching fascist-mandated propaganda and hurting LGBTQ kids for a paycheck. Even if it is incredibly dishonest, couching "anti-CRT" as pro-equality, anti-racist, and in favor of a "neutral and factual" approach to history/race relations is probably a very smart way to frame it. Especially given that polls show that upwards of 85% of Americans don't know what CRT actually is, so you will be defining it for a lot of them. It also helps Republican congressional candidates with their huge losses among the "open to voting for Republicans, but not for someone perceived as racist" demographic during the past 5 years. Edit: The Senate is debating the Sunshine Protection Act to end the switch back from daylight savings time. Biden says he would sign it and Marco Rubio is cosponsoring with Democrats. https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1456339567615873029 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:41 on Nov 4, 2021 |
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Nov 4, 2021 20:36
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I know that Twitter requires hot takes and hyperbolic statements, less than 1% of Americans actually use it regularly, etc. etc. But, I still find it weird that there is apparently a contingent of people - who are writers for the NYT, Politico, and Washington Post no less - that think the Sunshine Protection Act would usher in a nightmare world of horror. https://twitter.com/PattyMurray/status/1456335127462748171 https://twitter.com/suellentrop/status/1456343634257842181 https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1456342051201687555 https://twitter.com/aduehren/status/1456343219470471171 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:08 on Nov 4, 2021 |
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Nov 4, 2021 21:04
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haveblue posted:So why don't we pin it to the other direction, where it gets lighter earlier and also darker earlier? Just stop with the switching already The people in support of permanent DST generally cite the studies on improved health, energy usage, and crime for why they want permanent DST over permanent ST. (Plus, the obvious not switching times back and forth) https://twitter.com/PattyMurray/status/1456335469399134210
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Nov 4, 2021 21:16
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cr0y posted:gently caress it, go big, put the whole country on unix time. Not only are the trains now running on time, they’re running on metric time. Remember this moment, people, eighty past two on April 47th.
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Nov 5, 2021 01:47
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House announced that they are holding the first votes on BBB and BIF today. They added 4 weeks of paid leave back in, modified the SALT changes, and added some more spending. But, there is a 99% chance that all of those are going to get stripped out for the Senate versions. So, don't get too attached to them. That would put the estimated time for final passage and being signed into law around November 19th, assuming (and that is a giant assuming given the track record) no more major delays in the Senate.
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Nov 5, 2021 13:34
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TulliusCicero posted:...How is "removing a massive financial burden off of most of the younger generations" not meaningfully improving chances at victory? The original person was just saying that someone who said "X is bad politics because it will not provide a direct benefit to a majority of people, instead do student loan forgiveness" should note that student loan forgiveness impacts far less than a majority of people. I don't think they were arguing against it in principle.
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Nov 5, 2021 13:51
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Lib and let die posted:Even more reason to suspend payments. Obamacare is a loving waste - and before the tut-tutting starts, I was on one of the exchange plans for 6 months while I was unemployed and recovering from major shoulder surgery. It funds the federal portion of the Medicaid expansion. The exchange subsidies are funded through an excise tax on incomes above $200,000, cuts to Medicare advantage reimbursement rates, and taxes on businesses with more than 25 employees who don't offer healthcare. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 14:46 on Nov 5, 2021 |
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Nov 5, 2021 14:44
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Now that the numbers for Virginia are finalized you can look at some of the trends. - Overall turnout was a new record for a Governor's race - looks like it will be ~56% of eligible voters - Democratic turnout was up around 21% from the previous Gubernatorial election. - Republican turnout was up around 26% from the previous Gubernatorial election. - Democratic margins in NoVa/the Northern suburbs held to almost 2020 levels. - Youngkin demolished in southwestern and rural Virginia - on both margins and turnout he ended up with over 50% more net votes from those areas than Republicans had in 2017. He matched or exceeded Trump's margin in every single county in the SW. - Even though those rural areas are small, when Youngkin was winning 91% of the vote in some of them + exploding turnout, it made the difference. - Some people hypothesized that Youngkin's dog whistle politics would be somewhat countered by increased minority opposition to him, but he did about the same as every other statewide Republican governor. He didn't improve, but wasn't seemingly hurt by it. The only 100% clear conclusion that you can draw is that the idea that increased overall turnout will always benefit Democrats clearly isn't true. The other thing is that Democrats need to find a way to either demotivate or change the votes of the large amount of rural voters who are energized by racial rhetoric and politics. I have no idea what the surefire way to do that would be. They can get blown out by 40 points with these voters and still win easily, but they can't get blown out by 80+ points. Not sure what you can do with that information on a national level (or if it even applies outside of VA, it didn't happen in California where Newsom got blown out by the "normal" amount among those voters). Edit: Sort of the opposite happened in New Jersey, where it looks like Murphy saw a general all-around drop in support from every geographic area with a larger drop in southern Jersey (similar to what happened in SW VA, but to a much smaller level). Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Nov 5, 2021 |
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Nov 5, 2021 15:17
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RBA Starblade posted:Didn't more young people vote Biden than Bernie? Not while it was competitive. Bernie generally got a larger share of the youth vote (depending on when you consider the cutoff for youth). His main problem was that the youth vote didn't actually come out. Biden won the youth vote in blowout races like Virginia, D.C., and Georgia and after the race was no longer competitive. But, Bernie won it in all of the earlier races except for SC.
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Nov 5, 2021 16:26
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I think the House moderates might just be bad at politics. Now, they are sabotaging the bipartisan infrastructure bill until the CBO scores the House version of the BBB bill (which will definitely not be the final version) out of some weird belief that a CBO score showing it lowering the deficit will help them politically. https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1456638613962338309 How did one person asking about the geographic location of student loan havers end up in a multiple page 7 on 1 argument with a different third-party about how engineers shouldn't get debt forgiveness? Lib and let die posted:Give college grads more purchasing power and maybe we can reduce the iron stranglehold that companies like BlackRock have on the real estate market even. Blackrock owns 0.04% of the total U.S. housing stock and 0.53% of all single-family rental homes. If you count all institutional and corporate owners, then those companies own 1.9% of the single-family rental market and 0.21% of the total housing stock. They don't have an iron stranglehold on the housing market. https://twitter.com/JerusalemDemsas/status/1403337439708598275
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Nov 5, 2021 16:43
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I can kind of see the logic to this, but this seems stupid. The House draft version of the BBB has a cost limit of $55,000 to qualify for the $12.5k electric vehicle rebate. Electric pickup trucks are more expensive than sedans/crossovers and are much more popular car body types than sedans. There is worry that there may be fewer EV adopters if people will only drive a pickup truck. So, the House version of the bill extends the cost limit to qualify for the full rebate to $80,000 and under for pickup trucks only. Willa Rogers posted:As I pointed out the last time you went on this tangent, looking at single-family homes owned by hedge funds & corporations while ignoring their taking over the multi-family rental market is some shady sleight of hand. It was discussed in the context of normal homebuyers being priced out of housing by rising home prices. That is why you look at single-family housing. The average homebuyer is not out buying an apartment complex. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Nov 5, 2021 |
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Nov 5, 2021 17:03
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Anyone who'd get mad over student loans being forgiven was already a lock to vote Republican. Nah. There's definitely people who would that aren't diehard republicans. Would any of them be motivated to go out and vote against someone when they weren't before? Seems very unlikely. It would probably just go on the pile of "reckless spending" in their mind and assigned blame for high taxes, debt, inflation, or job openings like any other large spending program would. I think some of the people talking about political backlash in this thread are asking in an academic way and talking past each other.
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Nov 5, 2021 17:21
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