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If the BIF passes alone, BBB will never follow. We knew this the moment moderate democrats tried to decouple them, and Manchin's dustup & whine about them not being decoupled only reinforces that.
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Nov 1, 2021 19:48
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This has been brought up in leftist circles & media, but the most incredible thing is just how little politicians need to be bribed to become stalwart roadblocks of any meaningful progress for trillion dollar industries. Just Menendez alone will prevent any meaningful pharma reform, in exchange for what will likely add up to a couple million dollars across his entire senatorial career. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 23:47 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 23:43
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I'd like to take a brief "told you so" moment, and point out that all the polls that people were using to confidently predict a Macolive victory were 2-3 weeks older than the polls showing a tight/Youngkin-lead polls. A stunning upset victory for "recent, post-debate polls are better". Anyways, India Walton is losing her race to the Centrist-Rightwing teamup campaign. Honestly I dont think anyone should be negative on the electorally skeptical, on a night where the centrists are fumbling a +10 state while successfully killing a candidate who worked her way through the channels liberals have demanded (winning primaries). quote:How can you promote life saving policies like M4A when Facebook says it's a creation of Hugo Chavez and nobody is in a position to stop it! At the height of anti-M4A media saturation it had 70% support and a plurality of republicans. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:In a rare case of "your individual vote actually did matter" the left-wing candidate running on a $1,000 month UBI, Medicare for All, and a wealth tax in the FL20th primary just "won" by 31 votes. It triggers an automatic recount under Florida state law, though. So, she hasn't officially won yet. I wonder if her opponent will follow The Byron Model. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 02:58 on Nov 3, 2021 |
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Nov 3, 2021 02:55
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:It really is a time where having a good orator as a president would make a huge loving difference. Much as I am loathe to invoke him, someone like Obama who could go on primetime TV and give people the warm fuzzies by telling them how we are in an existential crisis as a nation "but we can get through it because we're special" or whatever the gently caress kinda bullshit that'll get folks up in the morning I mean, the democrats wheeled out every centrist superstar available for the Virginia race: Stacey Abrams! Clyburn! Kamala! Obama attracted an astounding hundreds of attendants! Honestly, rather than this refuting the idea of "do good things = win election", I think it better refutes the twin ideas that you can run on nothing but shouting about a guy who's been absent for a year, and that you can supplement policy with star power. Obama was probably correct to work from behind a phone during the primaries.
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Nov 3, 2021 03:06
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Now that it's clear that you can run a counter-campaign after losing a primary, and at least half of the local party will support you over the actual winner, I cant imagine any centrist incumbent ever willingly backing down to a left challenger. Clearly you can do that and democrat voters will reward you for it.
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Nov 3, 2021 03:16
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Ciprian Maricon posted:This isn't really a referendum on VA's policy of the last couple of years though because Terry McAuliffe chose to ignore any of that progress and run a campaign where he told parents what he actually meant when he said they shouldn't have a say in their childrens education Case in point:   This doesn't look like an ad that would get people to vote for Terrance!
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Nov 3, 2021 03:29
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https://twitter.com/jamieson/status/1455719491439038466?s=20 The Trump Strategy has failed, The Byron Model is born, unions are growing fangs, it is a time of chaos. For real though, I'm glad that unions are starting to throw their weight around.
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Nov 3, 2021 03:56
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 With the election safely decided, Trump's decided to start the gloating. Can't say he's particularly wrong, about Terry's strategy & hopefully that the democrats will find a new schtick. They tried to rope Trump into repelling Virginia independents and his handlers managed to rein him in; if they manage to do the same in 2022, with a heavily neutered BBB bill, it could be a slaughter.
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Nov 3, 2021 04:37
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socialsecurity posted:The fact that "the Dems did nothing" is being used as an argument in a state like VA where they actually did a ton shows how hollow that argument really is. It doesn't matter what the Dems actually do they will just get hated on, it's similar to the usual "the Dems should do this, oh wait they have been? Well I didn't hear about it from my media bubble so they did it wrong' A critical element of the "do good things -> boast about doing good things -> get elected" strategy is the "boast about doing good things" part. Fact is that Terry's campaign laser-focused on tying Youngkin to Trump (to such an extent that they distributed leaflets that looked like Youngkin ads), and was extremely defensive in allowing Youngkin to control the narrative. His counter to the CRT nonsense was possibly the worst and most easily misinterpretable response possible. In short: https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1455703596033585156?s=2 This loss is an indictment of hollow candy-coated third-way bullshit. You in fact do need to run on substance. You cant get away with rolling out moderate celebrities when you aren't in a democrat primary nor against a divisive hothead.
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Nov 3, 2021 05:18
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10% of Virginia has diabetes, and quite a few are at risk of it. https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2021-02-02.html 56% supported repealing the death penalty, 68% supported weed legalization. General support for progress on the majority of subjects. Terry beefed it. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 07:09 on Nov 3, 2021 |
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Nov 3, 2021 07:07
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My personal take: 1. Walton seems to have run weak campaign, in fairness likely due to her inexperience and freezing-out from a significant chunk of the local party. She managed to annoy two unions almost entirely on accident, and in general exuded a lack of professionalism and knowledge of what she was talking about, as such:  ...  As well as falling for obvious normalization efforts of Brown as a valid candidate, such as the debate hug. This is to be expected from someone new to politics and running as an outsider, but was exacerbated by the heavily pro-Brown political apparatus providing little in the way of veteran handlers, I'd assume. 2. The fact that she was supposed to be the only candidate on the ballot likely depressed turnout among those that voted for her in the primary; she won the democrat primary, shes the only candidate, win by default, go home, right? Whereas Brown & his republican allies obviously did not have that complacency. 3. Despite her shortcomings, the fact of the matter is that she won the primary. She should be the mayor right now. That Brown can command a chokehold on the party despite clearly losing by the rules to which leftists are demanded to follow is a travesty of democracy and a damning indictment of leftist electoralism, and the fact that the majority of the local party will have gotten away with not endorsing their own candidate will have severe reprecussions for future leftist challengers against liberal incumbents. Sever any emotional ties you may have had for Walton as you wish, but this result will make future AOC's, future Cori Bush's, future Rashida Tlaib's, future Ilhan Omar's less likely. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 09:41 on Nov 3, 2021 |
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Nov 3, 2021 09:37
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Murgos posted:I feel like I’m being gaslit again. I don’t see how people can look at a constitution ignoring, big lying, COVID denying, insurrection supporting, fascist, bigoted and racist Republican Party and vote in a new R governor. Even if they're unwilling to move left, democrats need to at least figure out how to guide the narrative. Youngkin basically made this The Scary Book Election, until Terry momentarily abandoned shadowboxing Trump to instead make it the McAuliffe Doesnt Want You To Have A Say In Your Kids' Education Election. He didnt veto the insulin price cap, marijuana legalization, abolishing the death penalty, or community college assistance, so presumably he's cool with that stuff! And they all poll well! Mention them!
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Nov 3, 2021 12:43
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Laws are not inherently good, and "oh you want to do X for good? What if X was done for bad later?" can be applied to literally anything; it's a rallying cry for stagnation. This is without getting into the fact that signing an executive order which might be repealed by the courts later is not, in fact, breaking any laws. Thats in fact how the system works!
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Nov 4, 2021 02:50
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Build Back Better Bill is so dead
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Nov 6, 2021 02:56
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Can we have a moment of silence for the BBB, which is now in a coffin
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Nov 6, 2021 04:05
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It's a bit gauche that the build back better bill decided to dress up as a ghost in november
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Nov 6, 2021 04:16
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How long can a bill sit at the executive before it needs to be signed/vetoed? The only way I see the BBB not being dead (rest in peace) is if they go with not signing BIF until BBB is on the desk with it. I dont trust Biden to be that clever, though.
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Nov 6, 2021 04:29
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Is the 1.2 trillion in the BIF a ten-year projection like the BBB, or is that all in 2021? I'm interested in comparing it to other superpowers to get a sense of scale on how Historic and Once In A Century or Whatever this is. Looking at other superpowers, China's invested about 8 trillion on infrastructure in 2020 (according to Politico, though that apparently includes private investments?) I mean, it's good that these bridges are being repaired & potholes are being filled, it just feels like a lot of backpatting for what should be completely normal and benign investments, especially considering the amount of private grift it will attract, and considering the US's place as the wealthiest nation in the world. And especially considering that it's now come at the price of killing BBB. E: CNN's article says its 550 billion in new investments over 5 years? Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 08:09 on Nov 7, 2021 |
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Nov 7, 2021 07:59
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CRT hate works because nobody knows what it means; conservatives think it's about hating yourself for being white (and that failson class didnt help), independent/apolitical people see it as something new/ambiguous/scary which lets anyone define it for them (and because conservatives have been better on messaging, its been defined negatively), and some leftists associate it with subverting class analysis (because some liberals have pushed The 1619 Project as the face of it). Like with most race-based subjects (such as BLM or Defund the Police) the issue is first and foremost that democrats never want to defend this stuff or put a positive spin. Youngkin defined it as teaching white kids racial self-loathing, and instead of substantially refuting this McAlf compounded on it with "and parents wont be able to stop those teachers if I'm re-elected". Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 06:45 on Nov 8, 2021 |
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Nov 8, 2021 06:35
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IPlayVideoGames posted:Every day I’m more and more surprised that there’s not even more whole-scale massacre of leftists or civil rights advocates in the street considering the alignment of the country’s justice system and media apparatuses to rehabilitate and acquit right wing murderers. Most american leftists have been successfully cowed away towards actual methods of change, making such uneccessary and potentially destabilizing. You do see it happen when they inch towards rioting, but otherwise why bother? Anyways: https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1459208302030581761?s=20
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Nov 12, 2021 18:24
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It's wild that party leaders can say "yeah the votes arent there, it was always going to die" and you will still get truly credulous folk who insist it just didnt follow the correct procedure. It was right of Lee Carter to push for that vote, and it would have been right to force a vote on M4A. Abolish any pretension that they are your allies.
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Nov 13, 2021 00:48
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I'm glad the canny virginny democrats managed to kill the Kill RTW Bill so that they could prevent, a democrat, from getting undue credit for passing a good thing. Dodged a massive bullet there, stopping a democrat from touting that they did something good.
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Nov 13, 2021 01:47
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Ershalim posted:I'm inclined to agree with your perspective, but I think the polls don't quite shake out that way. Leftist policies are extremely popular among people until you have to explain them, even a little, at which point they're ratings poison. M4A, people like. M4A being something that would require any change or difference whatsoever on their part, real or imagined, they hate. This is a narrative that was developed during the primaries. What you are describing is called Push Polling. Neurolimal posted:You can do this with literally anything. They're called leading questions and push polls; where the query is tailored to nudge the person towards the desired opinion. Kreeblah posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA It's proven to be an effective narrative for the soft left, particularly those inclined to assume the worst of other voters. It was honestly kind of genius to sell a notorious signifier of poor polling as a genuine cause for concern.
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Nov 13, 2021 03:32
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Ershalim posted:Is it entirely untrue then? I thought that it broke down along the lines of things like, people like the concept of M4A, but when you inform them they wouldn't have their current insurance, it triggered serious loss aversion and people turned on it really fast. I know push polling is also quite effective, but I thought that this one was legit because the changes to the medical system's structure made people extremely uneasy. I can imagine it being a very effective cudgel for the people who claim that we can't do anything and never should, so maybe I just got suckered by the propaganda here. It's true that people can be cautious towards change, as you can see in that poll, but you can absolutely push back against that in significant ways, as evident from how little a net change was produced when considering both positive and negative narratives. We also have recent real-world examples in Black Lives Matter, Medicare For All, Fracking, and ACB that these numbers can be improved when normalized over years, or touted/defended by authority figures. Neurolimal posted:A reminder of where BLM was in 2016 and today. It's a part of why we had a year+ of democrats from Biden to Clyburn to Obama immediately dumping on Defund the Police, for example. It's not something they want normalized, and they missed the boat to do so on M4A and BLM.
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Nov 13, 2021 16:49
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:It doesn't help that voters want things but get mad when you spend the money I think this is an issue where the question itself works to convince the respondent; I'm sure if you asked "do you believe the government is not doing enough to take care of the poor and ill?" you'd likely get a similarly positive response. I dont think it's very avoidable, and owes to the reactionary nature of the average independent.
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Nov 14, 2021 17:39
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-Blackadder- posted:What happened with this anyway, like why Harris specifically over people who's competence and likability were so much higher? Did Harris have enough Hilary supporters that would've stayed home or was it something else? Klobb was in posession of an extraordinarily topical scandal right as VP sweepstakes were taking place. I know Obama-Biden promised a lot of candidates poo poo to drop out and endorse him, but I cant imagine Harris being their first choice until that happened. Outside of very embarassing picks like Tim Kaine, VP's are usually picked to deliver states or mollify a part of the base; Pence was picked to be the reasonable anchor to Trump, Biden to lock up the Racist Democrat base, Ryan for the tea partiers, Palin for the wingnuts, etcetera. Klobb might have probably been their midwest pick, I cant imagine what Harris would bring on those lines. Her entire base is diehard clintonites, shes from California, and Biden has absurd numbers among black americans despite the vast majority of his legislative history and gaffes. I dont think anyone had pretensions on Buttigeig providing anything, and the party had yet to give Stacey Abrams all the credit for Georgia organizing. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 04:16 on Nov 15, 2021 |
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Nov 15, 2021 04:08
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I dont have a lot of respect for Biden, but ignoring Harris is probably one of his few good moves, alongside not backing out of the Afghanistan withdrawal & making the sauds mad. She's a charisma hole, represents a withering and sterile clintonite base (even by the standards of centrist superstars), and couldnt even get to her state's primary before her family drained the coffers. Her greatest traits are a rictus grin and sneakers.
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Nov 15, 2021 04:42
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https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1460070063025831936?s=20 I feel like this is pretty terrible idea.
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Nov 15, 2021 05:20
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https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1460657860925394967?s=20 Manchin, freed from needing to care about BBB to get the BIF through, is reveling in his victory.
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Nov 16, 2021 23:36
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CommieGIR posted:Yes, again, Biden followed through. There's no reason to believe Trump would have. That's the point. I mean, short of a newly refreshed invasion force they didnt really have a choice.
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Nov 28, 2021 05:44
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IMO noone did anything of value and any group taking credit would be comical; Trump started it but likely wouldn't have gone through with it, the pentagon didnt think they'd have to under any president & made zero plans, and Biden/Trump didn't apply any pressure to them to make any such plans nor expedite the process. We left because we had no choice to leave, not because anyone involved wanted to. The ANA was in complete freefall and our toadies were already loading up their briefcases with everything of value (in the case of our puppet-president quite literally) to leave. Literally the only alternative would have been an immensely unpopular re-buildup of our invasion forces, the reconstruction of the ANA, and a costly guerilla war against a newly emboldened and freshly armed Taliban. It wasn't going to happen. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 19:42 on Nov 28, 2021 |
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Nov 28, 2021 19:34
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