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Desiderata
May 25, 2005
Go placidly amid the noise and haste...
:newdanger:

That's how I spoiled my vote last time.

Edit: ... And plan to into the future at this point.

Desiderata fucked around with this message at 09:10 on Feb 4, 2022

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Desiderata
May 25, 2005
Go placidly amid the noise and haste...

serious gaylord posted:

Starmer just had to be evacuated after a mob tried to swarm him shouting about Saville.

Seems its quite hard to put the genie back in the bottle.

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1490746579187294218
This is insanely good, lol that owns.

Seriously, I feel nothing anymore.

Edit: to be a little more substantive - there is a hilarity in the "it wasn't me making the choice, though I was the head of the organisation, I could not actually interfere in the process of a case" defence, given what happened to his predecessor, and how he got where he is.

Desiderata fucked around with this message at 20:22 on Feb 7, 2022

Desiderata
May 25, 2005
Go placidly amid the noise and haste...

Dabir posted:

Adam Something

"Nato is a defensive alliance, so why would Russia be afraid of it." is the level of insightful analysis of international relations that Adam Something is bringing to the table here.

While I appreciate the compilation of press briefings, he should have stuck to laughing at Elon Musk and posting about trains.

Desiderata
May 25, 2005
Go placidly amid the noise and haste...

Dabir posted:

It's not bait, I got mad when it looked like Desiderata was pulling some apologia poo poo. I'm gonna go do something else to calm down, sorry all

Sup. If you are truely itching to shout at someone over Ukraine there is probably a thread for that somewhere. I dunknow.

My point was more that a "leftist" youtuber saying things like "Nato is defensive, why would Russia be afraid of it", or even better "The US doesn't threaten countries militarily" is like... a believing everything said in a press briefing level of understanding what is happening in an international conflict. I was pretty disappointed in those videos.

Desiderata
May 25, 2005
Go placidly amid the noise and haste...

Dabir posted:

It's not western propaganda to say that Russia is not under military threat from NATO, a military alliance. NATO probably does outmatch Russia militarily, but that's kind of irrelevant when any shooting war between the two would result in the planet being turned into a hot, glowing marble.

It's not western propaganda to say that Putin and his top guys definitely know this. The Russian people might not, but Russia is a dictatorship with state controlled media, so what its people believe is informed by, rather than a factor in, what its leaders want to do. The people in Russia whose opinions get to count are under no illusions that NATO is a military threat to them.

Therefore, Russia's actions are not motivated by fear of NATO. But they say they are. This is a lie, told to justify indefensible actions and sway credulous people to the support of Russia. Where I come from, we do call that propaganda.

The individuals involved do not need to be physically quaking in their boots, nor machiavellian manipulators of the highest order. They are both smart, and human like you and I. Structurally at this scale in both time and geography, it makes no difference, they are part of a very long game.

See for example the mutual misunderstanding of intentions in the Cold War (seriously look at how wrong and panicked the finest minds of both sides were about the others plans, let alone goals), or more recently the United States wild lashing out after 9/11 immediately undermining itself with the last two decades of back to back defeats in the middle east or... basically all international politics since the beginning of recorded history.

Russia as a country knows who NATO are designed to defend against (hint, it is them), and have seen the last hundred years of politics in continental europe play out. They would be dumb and bad at the game if they were not afraid of Nato, if not what they do today then what nato or its decedents may do in the future. In the exact same way the USA is very obviously scared of rising China, or here Russia unfucking itself and regaining status etc.

That understanding helps you understand their actions at scale, even if you personally see them as your enemy, you should understand them right? All the better to defeat them. Rather than telling yourself they can only be responding rationally within timelines and data clipped to only to whenever our media noticed the issue, because hell knows we don't act rationally on the international stage either.

The best way to lie is to not tell an untruth, but to choose where the story starts and ends, then omit major details, and more importantly perspectives. That way you can make anyone a hero or a villain, and feel morally justified in whatever action you want. But that won't let you necessarily understand something, or why something happened, or what people wanted, or what to do in the future.

Desiderata
May 25, 2005
Go placidly amid the noise and haste...

Dabir posted:

What are they afraid of NATO doing?

Uniting the entire productive capacity of Eastern Europe against them under the EU within a military umbrella, rolling up their sphere of influence till they are isolated and have NATO up against their border, limiting their access to international trade and maritime influence (both the port in this instance and more), ensuring that their status and thus say in the world order continues to decline, ending them as a global power till they cannot even resist anymore and collapse (again), nuclear weapons or no.

You know, basically the same with the USAs worries about Chinas influence in Asia/Africa.

But that's what dying empires look like, right? I mean on these timescales, today yes totally it may seem hilariously impossible to imagine a nato invasion: but the neurosis brought on by having twice now had to fight European invasions to a standstill at and through your capital's gates is something that sticks in the cultural mythos, also that other time being involved in a war on their western border partially precipitated a civil war in which western Europeans marched armies inside their borders yet again, all probably left a bit of a long term cultural impact ya know. This is the kind of stuff still motivates at these timescales. All declines and rises, are step by step. Hell look at British dead empire cultural neurosis still play out badly on the international stage (it is funnier, but only because we are truly much less powerful).

Desiderata
May 25, 2005
Go placidly amid the noise and haste...

Dabir posted:

Sounds like they're afraid of the consequences of their own actions, then. The military actions. The ones they're doing to their neighbours. The neighbours who are suddenly very keen to join a military defense pact.

Like I said, you can decide when a story starts and ends and use that to tell any story you want in terms of heroes villains and moral consequence. You can feel righteous about it if that comforts you. It's not going to help you understand what is happening and why, other than how those stories can be used to move people. That is why history is terrible consequence after terrible consequence.

But it is why you should take their fear seriously, it is as real a motivator as you can have.

Desiderata
May 25, 2005
Go placidly amid the noise and haste...

OwlFancier posted:

One might suggest that a more effective way to avoid that outcome would be something like the belt and road initiative rather than annexing bits of your neighbours.

Yeah, if they could afford to, again woes of a waning empire. This is where the softpower stuff is always at work though, being civil and "normal" atleast is various western NGOs wandering in telling you what is or isn't a "good election", western money creeping into your politics covertly/intentionally or not (it hardly matters) and with it influence and power, and accidental or intentional cultural and economic ploys to bend your neighbors out of your orbit. NED gonna NED. You can definitely make the argument there: that Russia has utterly failed to play that game well, and has lost that part of its grip because of being financially crippled and unable to make the same soft power offers the west has (strangely in part because of the damage caused by that very same shock market liberalism). But that is what has happened, what they see as their border buffer has been slowly eaten away. The neighborhood is being turned against you anyway in Hobos analogy. This falling back to the sword is just the last step in a long creeping economic advance towards them, one they have been unable to stem (and we would have equally called unjust if they did). Nato membership is more a signifier of the final step of the contagion (from their pov here), than the sole force itself pushing inwards, chewing away at their influence. The force is as much the EU, US, a million NGOs or being plugged into European manufacturing and supply lines and vague western neoliberalism etc.

The west is very good at economic infiltration and can fully turn to the sword just as quickly if we think it will get the job done. From that point of view, they must feel like we just bribe everyone around them... and we kinda do, successfully. We equally feel nervous about China putting their economic excess to use like you say. We offer a good package, but if you want the full benefits, you gotta be in the club, and yeah any country caught between these two opposing forces is having choose. But we the west have been at work here, it is not something that just happened, and Russia notice that because they are not fools.

Playing around the edge of the old ruined empire is dangerous, you never know what you may trigger, hence this.

Desiderata
May 25, 2005
Go placidly amid the noise and haste...

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

https://twitter.com/Tom_Hinchcliffe/status/1494586965429268517?s=20&t=4CBosaQjY5vjn9hoW29i5Q

Any other Labour storm would have 20 feet of flooding by now.

(Source: reddit)

Didn't expect them to take "get in the sea" so literally. But I am pleased by the result.

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Desiderata
May 25, 2005
Go placidly amid the noise and haste...
In work today management were openly bragging about a plan to try to hire as many Ukrainian refugee software developers as they can, with both open glee hoping to solve their hiring backlog and a palpable insistence that they were heroically doing great charity work in making such a sacrifice.

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