Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


TipTow posted:

The missiles that could be stationed in Ukraine were it to join NATO?

Nuclear missiles? AFAIK the US hasn't had an active MRBM or SRBM since the Pershings were discontinued in the early 90s. Cruise missiles? The ground-launched nuclear Tomahawks were trashed around the same time and the naval ones around a decade ago.

They sure as hell aren't going to start building ICBMs silos in Ukraine so what, you're proposing they'll start basing B-52s with a handful of air launched nuclear cruise missiles in Ukraine for...reasons?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Alchenar posted:

Nah land-based TLAMs are still in the trial phase. From what I know it's fairly trivial to make a land based version but the US has only bothered to do the work on this until they lost patience with Russian non-compliance with INF. Once again it's Russia's actions creating the threat it complains about,.

Nah they did exist in the 80s but were all decommissioned in 1991 to comply with the INF treaty.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


ZombieLenin posted:


Which, despite me thinking Putin is being a reckless idiot as is, I don’t think the man is that stupid.

While I also don't think he's going to attack Poland or anything that insane, we've already crossed several "Surely Putin can't be that stupid" lines over the last couple weeks as it is.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Man if Russia actually goes through with this it's going to trigger one hell of a military build-up in ex-Soviet/Warsaw Pact states terrified Putin will pull the same poo poo on them.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Fuligin posted:

the time to buy raytheon stock is now now now!

Considering how much European equipment is German you'd probably be better investing in Rheinmetall.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


vuk83 posted:

The Danish army as if now has no air defence, except some old stingers.
The Danish army did fine in operation bomb useless dirt, doesn't necessarily translate into ability to contend a peer war.

After this give it a few years and I'll bet a whole lot of Europe is going to have armed up just to be safe.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


FishBulbia posted:

Russians could do nothing to prepare for Ukraine's secret weapon



https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1496865748635037704

Don't have a Twitter account what's the content?

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Barrel Cactaur posted:

Russian cybercrime is enabled and encouraged both to dev tools and to increase load on strategic opponents. Most APT groups in Asia and EE are either intel agencies or shielded by the state in exchange for not striking local targets. The Russian state is deeply tied to organized crime at basically every level.

State vs crime gang is a sliding scale.

Wasn't there a whole thing where someone figured out you could prevent a whole bunch of ransomware floating around from attacking your computer by just installing a Russian language pack in Windows?

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Nenonen posted:

In Scandinavia it's a cleaning company. In the good old days it was a strategy game company.

Close, the latter was SSI.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Charliegrs posted:

CNN is saying that the Ukrainian minister said the big explosion in the sky was a Russian missile they shot down.

I didn't even know Ukrainian AA had that ability.

They had a handful of Russian S-300 and Tor systems which you'd think would have been priority #1 for Russia to knock out but if they're shooting down missiles then at least some must still be active.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Sinteres posted:

Most of France's Jews survived the Holocaust, which may not have been the case if Germany had occupied the entire country. I'm not saying Petain was a good guy or defending Nazi collaboration or saying surrendering was morally good/making any normative judgments at all really (other than that Nazis are evil of course), just that it very likely saved a whole lot of lives in France.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_Anton

Germany did occupy the entire country two years later. Funny that.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


FishMcCool posted:

Apologies for the silly question, but wtf is a 'tankie'? I gather that it doesn't refer to tank crew, and the context make it sound like some kind of US slang for people falling pretty far to the right of the spectrum, but that's as far as I can infer.

Refers to the split within UK communists over the Soviets repressing the 1956 Hungarian Revolution with tanks. The pro-suppression "tankies" were the ones all in on authoritarian and using force to crush dissent. Really into Stalin, that sort of thing.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Honestly to the people saying Ukraine should just accept those ridiculous terms Putin offered, do you think they aren't viewing this as an existential conflict? Not like "Everyone is going to die" existential but "If we give in to these terms then there won't be a Ukraine in five years and we'll be back under the boot heel of a country that historically hasn't respected our language, culture, or nation".

Like after Putin's wacky speech a few days ago it's a bit hard to disagree with that being a potential future.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Concerned Citizen posted:

the terms are fairly mild. it creates a state totally unable to defend itself against russian aggression but is otherwise independent. that's pretty much cold war finland. i don't think ukraine really has much of a choice, it's that or extinction.

I think it's supremely foolish to think that a demilitarized Ukraine won't just get rolled up by Russia at the next opportunity after Putin's rhetoric.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Grouchio posted:

What's different about this declaration against cyber-attacks from Russia from the ones Russia has done in the past when Ukraine wasn't getting invaded?

I think it's more if Russia does something dramatic in response to sanctions and whatnot. Like, not just ransomware here or some infrastructure disruption there. But like a massive coordinated loving with power plants or something. That kind of big poo poo could be seen as an act of war.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Every time I hear "There will never be an insurgency because there's no jungles or mountains" like, do you think that stopped Iraq? Baghdad isn't exactly a mountainous jungle.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Despera posted:

probably tanks too

Considering each missile costs as much as a Lamborghini you'd sure hope they would work but Javelins look like they've been frighteningly effective against modern Russian armor.

This is going to be one of those conflicts that shift militaries like Yom Kippur did.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


A lot of this is making me wonder if Putin maybe originally was just planning for a small incursion to take Donbass and in a last minute brain mush ploy decided to just say "gently caress it" and go for the whole country without giving his forces time to prepare. So much of this has seemed just kludged together in terms of planning.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Zhanism posted:

Who is this?

Kadyrov is the batshit insane dude Putin has in charge of Chechnya.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


I'm sure all these idiots talking about how it's understandable for Russia to invade somewhere to "defend their sphere of influence" think the Bay of Pigs was also totally understandable :rolleyes:

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


The Lord of Hats posted:

Man, even if the invasion had gone relatively smoothly, Russia would have been shooting themselves in both feet diplomatically. NATO went from feeling a bit like a Cold War relic on the decline to an important and strong alliance, and Russia is pretty near to universally condemned. And with it going badly for Russia, there’s just no scenario where this really works out for them. Just the worst move possible.

Like what we've gone from many countries questioning the point of NATO to Sweden and Finland making noises about joining ASAP and Germany announcing a major rearmament in four days?

If Putin had just moved troops into occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk and gone "Mine now what you going to do about it you ain't getting it back ever" there probably would have been token sanctions but most of the world just accepting it as a fait accompli.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Trump posted:

Can they still do that? Outside of destroying the satellites. I thought Clinton removed that option, along with the accuracy thing for consumer devices.

IIRC Clinton removed the standard fixed accuracy degradation in consumer systems that was in place since it became open to the public but not the capability to turn it back on if needed never went away.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


KitConstantine posted:

Speaking of superior equipment - here's a "before and after Ukraine" of the Armata tank, aka Russia's top of the line showpiece

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1498076996768866313?t=XUbqAkM0GnDXl6CehmpufA&s=19

That's not the Armata, it's a T-72B3. Still one of their most advanced tanks.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


The Lone Badger posted:

Internal ammo explosion.

To be more specific Russian tanks pretty much all use carousel autoloaders in the middle of the hull for a number of reasons (compactness, don't need a human loader, etc...), but as a result can't incorporate safeguards like blowout panels that can lessen the effects of an ammo explosion. Often if a penetrating hit reaches the ammo you get a catastrophic explosion that has a habit of popping the turret right off the tank.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Dapper_Swindler posted:

isn't cuba have mostly fine trade with alot of south/central America and Europe/etc. like its not great at all but i assume most of the stuff was US based.

Cuba is fine to trade with pretty much anyone who isn't the US.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

I want the ukrainian to win so badly. Just to say gently caress you to Vladimir and his weekend war machine

Putin stepping on a rake would be a great thing to happen with regards to delegitimizing the far right both in terms of their funding and also shattering this image they try to project of him as this paragon of manly government.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


mustard_tiger posted:

Didn't it take the US and coalition a month to capture Baghdad? I don't think we can call the Ukrainian defense a success yet. They definitely are holding their own so far and have won the media war also.

Tbh while I agree that we can't call the defense a success yet on the first point there's some big differences with this invasion.

Mainly one, the distances were a lot larger (Baghdad is something like five times the distance from Kuwait as Kyiv is from the Belarusian border), the Americans were a hell of a lot more meticulous at securing their supply lines and advance, and probably even more critically, they were invading a country on the other side of the world not one next door where all their military bases are and can easily bring all their power to bear.

This is sort of like if the US invaded Mexico and was currently stuck half way to Monterey.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:

Okay -- I really don't feel like arguing with an entire thread about why I don't believe Putin is about to go on a binge of ethnic cleansing. If that's the mainstream view then this is gonna go nowhere and I'll just concede the argument.

Honest question, are you aware of the whole "Russification" thing?

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Between all these logistical fuckups and morale issues on the Russian side with just the initial invasion it's like, even if they do take and occupy all of Ukraine, this is the country that thinks it's going to be able to deal with a massive, well funded insurgency in a country larger and more populous than Iraq? :shepface:

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Concerned Citizen posted:

while i agree that russia will still almost certainly be victorious, comparing russians capturing kyiv to the us capturing baghdad is a little absurd due to the significant difference in distance the forces would have had to travel. the americans also achieved air supremacy very early in the war and suffered very few equipment losses compared to what russia is taking right now, and much of the iraqi army essentially dissolved pretty quickly.

Not to mention the big difference that Iraq wasn't literally right next to the US. It should be easier to invade a country next door compared to one on the other side of the world.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

Hahah what the gently caress - is that a normal thing or is that a Russia thing?

Edit oh it’s a helicopter - I guess I didn’t even notice that!

Normal. The KA-50/52 is one of the only (possibly the only?) helicopters to have an ejection seat. It has a system to blast the rotors off the helicopter before firing the ejection seat.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


KitConstantine posted:

A Russian "political analyst" posted a twitter thread showing documents and a laptop that supposedly prove that Ukraine and NATO were plotting an invasion of Donbass and Crimea - conveniently recovered in Donbass! From a far right militants because why not?

https://twitter.com/politblogme/status/1500466895383900175?t=cUuH63SDoEwPrpn_PXxjsQ&s=19
It has to be true - there's a sticker on the laptop! A sticker!!!!


Is that a loving Windows Vista laptop lmao?

They couldn't afford to use something newer than a 13+ year old laptop for their fake rear end poo poo?

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Grouchio posted:

So why are we saying that the war in Ukraine will be prolonged when we were just talking about the army perhaps collapsing on monday?

IIRC it wasn't so much the entire Russian army collapsing but the forces earmarked for the invasion starting to have an even more severe supply crisis because all the allocated supplies would have run out by then and Russia is clearly scrambling for more given all those civilian vehicles being shipped to the front.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Deteriorata posted:

Ukraine will never agree to stop westernizing, nor would they concede Crimea or the disputed regions. Putin may be willing to settle for those, but they'll never be on the table short of utter defeat of Ukraine.

On the first point especially. Giving in to a demand that they move back into Russia's economic sphere would be economic suicide given Russia's economy has just imploded and even if all sanctions are dropped, is still going to suffer given all the crap Russia pulled recently is going to scare off investment for quite a while.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Dante posted:

I can't even fathom how bad of a deal it would be to be installed as a Russian puppet in Ukraine after this war. You'd never see a window without thinking about the thousands of snipers planning to kill you.

2014 was also the second time Yanukovych was turfed through protests. He wouldn't last a month without a permanent Russian occupation.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


the popes toes posted:

"The javelin missile typically costs more than the target it eliminates," from a vid in the same youtube space. Wild.

Eh not anymore. Against the type of things it was used in various forms of "Operation Bomb Useless Dirt"? Sure. But those modernized T-90s, T-72B3s, and T-80BVMs are millions of dollars each.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


I don't think giving up on NATO would be nearly as much of a red line for Ukraine as being forced to give up on the EU. That's what sparked the whole Maidan thing in the first place. I could see them living with the former but not the latter, especially given the latter would still provide a degree of security guarantees.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Drone_Fragger posted:

Struggling to believe that Ukraine would get rid of their commitment to join NATO. They've seen what happens now when you're not in NATO and near Russia and you do something that Russia doesn't like. Neutrality is meaningless when Russia fundamentally doesn't think you have a right to exist.

Gentle reminder that Russia already gave guarantees on Ukrainian territorial sovereignty in 1991 when Ukraine agreed to hand over all their nukes for it.

I still think if they could get an EU partnership/membership they would be willing to drop NATO since that'd still mean a form of mutual defence but with the excuse of "Well it's not NATO so you can't be worries about US nukes on our territory or whatever horseshit excuse you had"

Russia still won't go for it because the whole NATO thing is a smokescreen and they're opposed to any integration away from their domination/sphere including economic but, offering that would at least show that Russia's claimed invasion goals weren't real.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

mostly the latter. in theory you always want to get your hands on a working example of the newest cutting edge hardware from around the world. in practice, nearly all of what russia is fielding here ranges from reasonable but older hardware to comically outdated junk. i think there are more tank enthusiasts worried about the fate of some rare tank variant that should be in a museum, than there are CIA guys trying to get the newest tank model. one confirmed tank kill in southeastern ukraine was a T-64 which, wow, where the hell was this thing stashed? thats an old enough piece of kit to make hobbyist news when it gets discovered

https://www.firearmsnews.com/editorial/oldest-m2-browning-50-caliber-mg-still-in-service/383060

Ukraine still operates a number of T-64s since the factory that made them was in Ukraine. Many are heavily modernized but IIRC they still run a number of regular T-64BVs from the 80s.

At the end of the day it's still a mobile big gun and with modern ammo can gently caress up a hell of a lot of things.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


CSM posted:

That seems extreme wishful thinking, there's always more Russian troops and vehicles to throw in the meatgrinder.



Russia has what, 120 BTGs deployed in and around Ukraine? That's essentially over 70% of what was supposed to be their highest readiness troops with their best equipment.

With the amount of breakdowns and equipment issues seen so far with what is supposedly their most modern and well maintained units what state do you think some random conscript battalion with hand me down equipment is going to be in?

Don't get me wrong Russia still has a bunch of poo poo they can throw at Ukraine but Russia isn't the Soviet Union and the Russian Army isn't the Red Army and neither have nearly the same resources the latter could throw at things.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5