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MikeC posted:Easy for you to bargain with their lives on the line and not your own. If I was Zelensky, I'd take it because whatever promises were made, whatever you were told how Russia would behave or how united the EU is or isn't, it wad obviously a bad bill of goods. I wouldn't. Shrug. To me, you might as well be advising Władysław Sikorski to just agree to what Hitler wants in 1939, because you know, surrendering to Hitler would mean saving lives; or advising Churchill to see the writing on the wall, and that the Germans have won. Best give
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Feb 25, 2022 16:32
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MikeC posted:Easy for you to bargain with their lives on the line and not your own. If I was Zelensky, I'd take it because whatever promises were made, whatever you were told how Russia would behave or how united the EU is or isn't, it wad obviously a bad bill of goods. Maybe this time Russia will honor this piece of paper and leave Ukraine alone, after invading Crimea, breaking both Minsk agreements however many times in the past 8 years and declaring war to bring down the homonazi government.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:35
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ZombieLenin posted:I wouldn't. Shrug. To me, you might as well be advising Władysław Sikorski to just agree to what Hitler wants in 1939, because you know, surrendering to Hitler would mean saving lives; or advising Churchill to see the writing on the wall, and that the Germans have won. I think a better analogy would be France, who did surrender. And as much as they get made fun of for it, they were spared the worst of the war because of that surrender. Was it the right move? gently caress if I know. Obviously morally monstrous decisions were made by the Vichy government, and they deserved what they got. But there were benefits to the surrender in terms of French lives spared.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:36
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mmkay posted:Maybe this time Russia will honor this piece of paper and leave Ukraine alone, after invading Crimea, breaking both Minsk agreements however many times in the past 8 years and declaring war to bring down the homonazi government. Jewish led Homonazi drug riddled government!  Sinteres posted:I think a better analogy would be France, who did surrender. And as much as they get made fun of for it, they were spared the worst of the war because of that surrender. Was it the right move? gently caress if I know. But there were benefits to it. The Jews might disagree a bit.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:36
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psycho with a gun posted:Putin must be executed immediately well post/username combo fits. ZombieLenin posted:I wouldn't. Shrug. To me, you might as well be advising Władysław Sikorski to just agree to what Hitler wants in 1939, because you know, surrendering to Hitler would mean saving lives; or advising Churchill to see the writing on the wall, and that the Germans have won. thats my opinion as well. like i dont blame zelensky for surrendering if poo poo gets way way worse but its clear russia won't honor poo poo and putin won't stop after this. from my hosed up goon brain, best option is to fight on even after it falls.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:37
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mobby_6kl posted:I haven't ready every post obviously, but has there been any discussion about how spot on all the intel turned out to be? Comically enough, vast majority of American intel appears to have been 100% precise, and it’s reasonable to speculate that it may have cause Russians to stall for a bit.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:37
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mmkay posted:Maybe this time Russia will honor this piece of paper and leave Ukraine alone, after invading Crimea, breaking both Minsk agreements however many times in the past 8 years and declaring war to bring down the homonazi government. Exactly. If it wasn't for the Minsk agreements, then this offer could potentially be considered. However, as it stands right now, this is no reason whatsoever to not read this as Lucy holding the football.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:38
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Sinteres posted:I think a better analogy would be France, who did surrender. And as much as they get made fun of for it, they were spared the worst of the war because of that surrender. Was it the right move? gently caress if I know. Obviously morally monstrous decisions were made by the Vichy government, and they deserved what they got. But there were benefits to the surrender in terms of French lives spared. they wernt spared dick and the vichy facists were fine selling their country men out to die.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:38
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Sinteres posted:I think a better analogy would be France, who did surrender. And as much as they get made fun of for it, they were spared the worst of the war because of that surrender. Was it the right move? gently caress if I know. But there were benefits to it. ...Uh France had a collaborationist government put in place that began helping the Nazis plan an invasion of England and assisting with the Holocaust. French resistance continued both in France and the Armed Forces of France continued to fight on outside of France for the entire war. TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Feb 25, 2022 |
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Feb 25, 2022 16:38
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CommieGIR posted:Jewish led Homonazi drug riddled government! Most of France's Jews survived the Holocaust, which may not have been the case if Germany had occupied the entire country. I'm not saying Petain was a good guy or defending Nazi collaboration or saying surrendering was morally good/making any normative judgments at all really (other than that Nazis are evil of course), just that it very likely saved a whole lot of lives in France. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 16:42 on Feb 25, 2022 |
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Feb 25, 2022 16:38
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CommieGIR posted:Jewish led Homonazi drug riddled government! It's hard to keep track tbh. But hey maybe the homonazis will at least finally be decommunized.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:39
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https://twitter.com/JohnCena/status/1496804055171092485 its a hot take but id love if it were real.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:39
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https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1497231597027921924 https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1497231651004370944 a precondition of ceasefire would certainly benefit the Ukrainians; I suppose the question is whether it would also benefit the Russian army
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Feb 25, 2022 16:39
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psycho with a gun posted:the one good post on this entire forum and it's permabanned lol I've only lurked these forums for 17 years so do whatever but I agree with the post that inexplicably got permabanned. (I don't agree that it's the only good post in these forums otherwise I wouldn't lurk)
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Feb 25, 2022 16:40
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 day 2
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Feb 25, 2022 16:40
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drunkill posted:https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497220862805745664 I see these numbers getting shared a lot. You're touching on a good point - BDA assessments (especially after one day) are foggy. I wouldn't take these numbers as gospel. Things tend to get double counted and the Ukrainian Intel guys are likely getting their info from battlefield reporting.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:40
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TheCardhouse posted:This is what Hitler thought about Poland. You don't have to go that far, Stalin infamously egged on North Korea to attack South Korea, because he thought the US wouldn't do anything. At the same time he was boycotting the UN. So when the US actually did something, they were able to utilize the UN to utterly gently caress North Korea over. If it weren't for US-troops overzealously crossing the Chinese border and managing to gently caress over themselves in the process, Korea would have been unified in the exact opposite way Stalin assumed things would go. And he could do nothing against it. Or think of how Saddam convinced himself he could just attack and invade Kuwait and the West would sit back and take it. But again, the West didn't sit back and the first Gulf War broke out. freeasinbeer posted:Day 2 threatening the enemy capital is impressive, I wonder if this is what the Russians are thinking at a strategic level, in that democracies are slow to wake up, if you rush the capitol can you just outrun sanctions. This would only be relevant if humans were a hivemind species controlled by a central nexus, but in real life the fighting doesn't stop just because you just executed the government you took hostage -if that even worked in the first place. The strength of democratic government is that in theory, every citizen is a president. You can just elect new officials and representatives if the old ones were gunned down. Besides, many capitals aren't even the military nexus of their nation's defense. Germany for example still has left most of its C&C back in Bonn, on the opposite side of the nation. Making a mad rush for the capital is always a gamble, you're gambling your soldiers' lives on a) enemy resistance crumbling, b) the enemy nation just giving up because the PC the game is running on gives their player a Game Over and c) your supply lines not getting cut because you had to do a mad rush to get there in the first place. That's a lot of gambling, and if something goes wrong, you just sacrificed a large chunk of your army just to look stupid. A more methodical approach would get you there the same way, without leaving you wide open. After all, even the invasion of Poland took weeks to play out, and Poland's army was nice enough to positions itself directly along the frontier, "prepared for immediate counter-attack". And when German spearheads broke through, large amounts of the Polish army were encircled and destroyed. Mind you, this is only day 2 and this could still happen. Even an encirclement of the main Ukrainian force is still possible. But even a totally one-sided defeat will take time. To go back to 1939 one more time, the invasion reached the capital in less then a week, but then Warsaw held out nearly a full month. German troops arrived at September 8th, and the capital surrendered on September 28th. As long as the Ukrainian military can avoid loving things up so badly as the Polish army did however, the Russians putting all their eggs into Kyiv is a huge risk that could backfire really badly for the Russian army. Libluini fucked around with this message at 16:45 on Feb 25, 2022 |
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Feb 25, 2022 16:40
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Dapper_Swindler posted:was that a russian BTR. also those folks are dead. Supposedly those were actual Russian special forces, rocking a light APC with SAM turret.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:41
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Comically enough, vast majority of American intel appears to have been 100% precise, and it’s reasonable to speculate that it may have cause Russians to stall for a bit. I guess this gives Putin the excuse to play to type and carry out Stalinist purges of the traitors who will be blamed for the intelligence leaks?
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Feb 25, 2022 16:41
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Sinteres posted:Most of France's Jews survived the Holocaust, which may not have been the case if Germany had occupied the entire country. They were less committed, but they still sent easily 100,000 plus to the camps, and French administrators and police freely cooperated with the Nazis. Its not a good example. Yes, 3/4 survived, but the Vichy government was less than helpful. But again, Hitler also had a habit of breaking agreements whenever he chose. Which he did. Frequently.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:41
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There is now a website that uses your internet connection to ddos Russian government websites (and RT etc.) when you connect to it. See post by "neonsunset" here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30462219
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Feb 25, 2022 16:42
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Dapper_Swindler posted:well post/username combo fits. Yeah Zelensky and his whole family is dead once Russia captures them (as are likely most of his cabinet). Its essentially a heroic sacrifice to spare the population any more suffering once its apparent there's no hope.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:42
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Hannibal Rex posted:That's after the Russian response that they're willing to negotiate? gospodin prezident, idite nakhoy
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Feb 25, 2022 16:42
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OwlFancier posted:Mad props to the ukrainian civvies having the APC up on bricks and nicking the petrol. Can't say I blame them, have you seen those fuel prices recently?
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Feb 25, 2022 16:43
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CommieGIR posted:They were less committed, but they still sent easily 100,000 plus to the camps, and French administrators and police freely cooperated with the Nazis. It's an example of there being no good decisions to make and French surrender saving lives that very likely would have been lost otherwise. I'm obviously not saying any of what happened was a good thing, or that collaborators should have died with a clean conscience (or even escaped punishment) or anything like that. Like the point of Sophie's Choice isn't that she should tell the Nazis to take both of the kids since she can't choose between them.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:44
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Ashmole posted:I see these numbers getting shared a lot. You're touching on a good point - BDA assessments (especially after one day) are foggy. I wouldn't take these numbers as gospel. Things tend to get double counted and the Ukrainian Intel guys are likely getting their info from battlefield reporting. And on top of that there's always going to be significant padding for propaganda purposes.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:45
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https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497235734100516868 Lack of air superiority is surprising, there's not been any air battles observed like there was yesterday. I guess we'll see tonight when the inevitable shelling starts.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:46
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Ashmole posted:I see these numbers getting shared a lot. You're touching on a good point - BDA assessments (especially after one day) are foggy. I wouldn't take these numbers as gospel. Things tend to get double counted and the Ukrainian Intel guys are likely getting their info from battlefield reporting. The reason why I personally find these numbers semi-believable, is the complete lack of victory propaganda from the Russian side. If it was going smoothly we would be seeing more "hearts and minds" government sanctioned bits, but I got a feeling they are meeting resistance from every angle possible and taking casualties that match such a resistance.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:47
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EvilHawk posted:https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497235734100516868 Who amongst you comrades dares to face the GHOST OF KIEV!?!
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Feb 25, 2022 16:47
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Dog Friday posted:Has Putin not simply lost the plot? With Xi not pleased with the economic woes this will bring their core goals/ambitions, is there anyone aside from Belarus onboard with this? Syria and Nicaragua stand proud with Russia
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Feb 25, 2022 16:48
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EvilHawk posted:https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497235734100516868 This is a good sign. Feels like reliable intel too, given how the US has watched this thing pretty accurately.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:48
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EvilHawk posted:https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497235734100516868 That's huge if true. It means Russian tank columns are potentially vulnerable as gently caress to airstrikes My question continues to be where the hell is Ukranian air landing? Poland? Ukranian Opsec has been insanely disciplined, it's really incredible in a modern war like this to have so little leaks Those Russian casualty numbers look insane to me for 2 days of fighting. TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 16:51 on Feb 25, 2022 |
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Feb 25, 2022 16:49
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Libluini posted:You don't have to go that far, Stalin infamously egged on North Korea to attack South Korea, because he thought the US wouldn't do anything. At the same time he was boycotting the UN. So when the US actually did something, they were able to utilize the UN to utterly gently caress North Korea over. If it weren't for US-troops overzealously crossing the Chinese border and managing to gently caress over themselves in the process, Korea would have been unified in the exact opposite way Stalin assumed things would go. And he could do nothing against it. UN forces didn't cross into China; they stalled after having taken Pyongyang because MacArthur wanted to go into China and Truman didn't. UN forces never crossed past the Yalu River.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:49
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https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1497195540261474305?t=1f5mL_2VfuDrnU2IIVmY3A&s=19
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Feb 25, 2022 16:50
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EvilHawk posted:https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497235734100516868 Russia was assessed as having the best ground forces in the world by military nerds i think and lol that they're underperforming so bad
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Feb 25, 2022 16:50
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Sinteres posted:That's a possibility, but it has to be weighed against the certainty of what's happening now. Obviously I think Ukraine should have tried making concessions before the invasion to prevent it (though yes, Russia is the country that had the option not to invade and it's wrong for Russia to do so), when they might have received a better deal, but I still think negotiating to save lives today is worth a try. I don't think people understand that what we've seen so far is a very clean version of the type of war Russia fights, and if they start bombing Ukraine the way they bomb Syria, it's going to be a LOT uglier. Obviously Russia will face consequences for that if they do, as they should, but that's not much solace to the people who die in the meantime. But like I said, I'm not making normative judgments about where Ukraine should draw the line at this point, I'm just saying what seems strictly rational from my outside perspective. I thought Ukraine was willing to negotiate. What reasonable concessions did Ukraine not give? The impression I got was that Russia basically put down a lot of non-starter demands that were essentially "become our puppet state and cease to exist as an independent nation with self-defense capabilities."
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Feb 25, 2022 16:51
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TulliusCicero posted:That's huge if true. It means Russian tank columns are potentially vulnerable as gently caress to airstrikes It helps that the vast majority of the social media sphere is on Ukraine's side. Ironically, Russia doesn't have that much positive engagement. Eric Cantonese posted:I thought Ukraine was willing to negotiate. What reasonable concessions did Ukraine not give? The impression I got was that Russia basically put down a lot of non-starter demands that were essentially "become our puppet state and cease to exist as an independent nation with self-defense capabilities." Basically yes. Putins demands basically require him to occupy Ukraine regardless and turn it into a puppet state. Its a no-go.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:52
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TulliusCicero posted:That's huge if true. It means Russian tank columns are potentially vulnerable as gently caress to airstrikes Probably at their airbases. I suspect Russian cruise missile strikes haven't been as damaging as they appeared.
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Feb 25, 2022 16:52
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mrfart posted:Isn't Moldova landlocked by Ukraine? Kind of but not really - they have a somewhat substantial port at Giurgiulesti where fairly large ocean-going vessels can and do dock. In practical terms they are less landlocked than Bosnia, which does not have a port at all but theoretically has sea access.
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EvilHawk posted:https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497235734100516868 Does it count as air superiority if they have a sufficient ground based air defence network that the enemy air force can't operate effectively?
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