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i'm still hopeful that this will all end up as a bunch of sound and fury, but if hostilities do break out, surely if a major city was on the verge of becoming a battleground, it would be declared an open city, and the ukrainian's wouldn't dig in? they know that it wouldn't make a difference to the final outcome beyond civilian casualties and mass destruction of basic infrastructure
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Feb 21, 2022 05:22
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Majority of people actively posting here read Russian just fine. That said, since "translate tweet" button is on holiday, here's the short content of each document (identical copies for LNR and DNR): huh, usually you host allied units after the cooperation agreement is established, not before have lnr and dnr made a formal request for military aid, or would that have taken too much time?
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Feb 21, 2022 22:37
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cinci zoo sniper posted:They did that before being recognized, i.e. yesterday. freeasinbeer posted:They have been asking for it for at least a week; if that’s a fig leaf someone wants to care about thanks the constant firehouse of breaking news, unconfirmed reports, and russian propaganda over the last couple of days has been difficult to keep straight edit: Rodiel posted:The west doesnt give a gently caress and never did. The idea that my government cares is what gets me so heated sorry is this a complaint that the western is not intervening enough, or not intervening the right way, or what? not trying to put words in your mouth, but having a hard time parsing if you want more or less sanctions GhostofJohnMuir fucked around with this message at 22:51 on Feb 21, 2022 |
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Feb 21, 2022 22:47
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I love how the guy exclaims that the road is hosed. Truly the thing to think about there. i see a lot of old passages from 19th and early 20th century diaries cited about seeing the passing columns of troops and the observer wondering how many of the young men would come back. i wonder how many passed over diary entries note the passing columns and then complaining about the churned mud and horseshit the observe is going to have to deal with
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Feb 23, 2022 00:25
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defense in depth, buffer states, and all other conventional military concerns mean nothing to a great power in the age of the nuclear triad. concerns like the us stationing anti-icbm batteries in poland, or the lapse of the inf treaty, or the new arms race involving hypersonic weaponry, have real implications for the balance of power and existential security. for some reason none of these real issues seem to be a focus in negotiations if nato started rolling armored divisions across the russian border it doesn't matter one bit whether they have enough depth to allow general winter to join the battle, because every military formation and most population centers around the world would be nuclear ash 15 minutes after first contact imperialist powers often put forward bullshit justifications for why their actions are righteous self-defense. very few on this forum would humor the merits of domino theory or the monroe doctrine, why should spheres of influence be any different
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Feb 23, 2022 08:57
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i was really holding out hope that things would at least remain limited. christ, what a pointless waste of livesWafflepoet posted:It’s a damned shame the Israelis vetoed the sale of the Iron Dome system to Ukraine. if the iron dome was struggling to neutralize the number of rockets the palestinians could manage to smuggle through tunnels into the rubble of gaza, it wouldn't have done poo poo against a concerted artillery and missile attack by one of the largest militaries in the world
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Feb 24, 2022 07:59
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i'm too mentally drained to weigh out what nato should or shouldn't have done to avoid this, but i think there's a glaring contradiction between "this is a tragic, yet inevitable and obvious result of nato's actions" and the common sentiment as recently as 12 hours ago that nato predictions of full-scale invasion were a laughable hoax by the western mic to gin up war hysteria. this is an event that seemed absurd to many, including me, when the white house began warning about it last year, and now after it's come to pass it's suddenly an outcome that nato politicians should have seen coming (and maybe did see coming?) for the last 20 years. i know i'm conflating multiple poster who have varied and nuanced views and it's not quite that simple, but it's some very noticeable tonal whiplash between a month ago and today mobby_6kl posted:BTW looks like uncle Joe's intel was right after all lol yeah fair enough, i wasn't trying to suggest that hamas had decisively defeated iron dome or anything, but the fact that there were any rockets getting through given the disparity of military power and strategic positioning bodes poorly for its performance against the russians.
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Feb 24, 2022 08:38
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i don't buy that ukranian forces are pulling some grand strategic maneuvering. large scale troop movements when russian air supremacy has never been in question seems like a terrible plan. ukraine only called up military reserves last night, there's no way they've even begun assembling in any coherent manner. everyone acknowledged that it was not an even matchup from the beginning. who knows what's going on in the fog of war, but i would not be surprised if this is over fairly quickly i just hope the fighting largely avoids major population centers
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Feb 24, 2022 08:53
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Josef bugman posted:Nothing is worth dying for. There are a million things worth living for, but I am a bit weirded out by how many people seem so blasé about their own and other people's lives. while i don't buy into some of the mythmaking that's currently going on (it reminds me of some of the posting around the syrian civil war, which i look back on with mixed feelings), i personally feel some things are worth dying for, if there is no other choice. especially complicity in brutality to others, franz jagerstatter comes to mind
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Feb 25, 2022 19:36
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is russia pressuring belarus to join the fighting because it wants to form its own mini "coalition of the willing" to downplay their international isolation, or at this point are they actually looking to supplement their own army? if the russians are having widespread morale and logistics problems, i can't imagine that belarusian soldiers with even less operational planning and investment in the conflict are going to be very effective
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Mar 2, 2022 16:52
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Randarkman posted:The comment might be talking about alot of the African countries among the abstentions though. There is hypocrisy evident in the Western response to this, and there is outright racism at times in how this war and resulting humanitarian crisis is commented on compared to very similar things that have happened outside of Europe, and which often the West has been complicit in. And then there's the reflection with Iraq in 2003 that the world would not be able to (and the West wouldn not be willing to) put up the same resistance to naked American aggression. yeah, it's completely in "no chance at all of happening" territory, but i wish that these kind of responses would be implemented against america, saudi arabia, and israel. just as much, if not more, human suffering has been caused by each just in the last decade i definitely don't begrudge the ukrainian's the support they're getting, but it drives home that the west doesn't really perceive or care about humanitarian crises unless it can be spun as "one of their own"
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Mar 2, 2022 18:37
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Raenir Salazar posted:You'd be surprised! Japan accepted a number of jewish refugees during WW2. in addition to what others have already said about imperial japan internalizing antisemitic propaganda (supposedly in part due to a jewish financier backing japan during the russo-japanese war to spite the pogroms of the tsar), the initial acceptance of the refugees wasn't state policy, it was pretty much solely because one diplomat exceeded his authority (from humanitarian motivations, as i understand), and presented it to his superiors as a fait accompli which they decided not to reverse due to previously discussed warped intake of antisemitic tracts
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Mar 2, 2022 23:17
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This thread moves at ~2 pages per hour already, and I'm quite certain I'm the only person who has read it end to end - the last thing it needs is more derails. i don't have to read it end to end, i just choose to because i'm stupid
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Mar 3, 2022 00:26
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cinci zoo sniper posted:At least now I know I'm not the only one who walked right into the European decimal comma after the fact. i left for a short trip to the mountains on friday morning and got back on sunday evening. reading through all of the ~4k posts made during that stretch took the rest of the day if by "killed" they mean "casualties" than this is a pretty blatant propaganda number. if by "killed" they mean "killed" than typical ratios of kia/wia means they're claiming that ~25-33% of the original russian formation are casualties and they're about to win the war
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Mar 3, 2022 00:39
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Dapper_Swindler posted:since when have the russian cared about that poo poo. i mean these guys are apparently shooting their own wounded. i've been reading basically every post in this thread since it started, and as far as i know this has only been suggested by third hand reports from sketchy propaganda outfits. unless you have something from a reputable source to back it up, i wouldn't be repeating it casually as a fact
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Mar 4, 2022 01:04
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GreyjoyBastard posted:ever met a Scotsman, rural Creole Louisianan, or worst of all, someone from New Jersey as someone who's met all three, i'm still not sure that the rural louisianan was actually speaking english
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Mar 4, 2022 01:35
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TheRat posted:Considering we've seen quite a few videos of Russian aircraft lately and just about zero Ukranian I'm going to have a hard time believing this one. it might be technically true (ukraine still has a bunch of usable airframes) while not actually implying that ukraine is directly contesting the skies (all those airframes are grounded due to logistics, russian aa, they're more useful as some kind of "air fleet in being", etc.) i wonder whether the conspicuous lack of videos of ukrainian air and armor assets is due to good opsec/ lack of civilians in areas where they're deployed, the ukrainian military holding them in reserve for some future counterattack opportunity or as a continuing factor complicating russian planning, or they're not in a position to deploy them anymore or of course it could be a mixture of all three
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Mar 4, 2022 18:46
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sniper4625 posted:https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1499796919836557312 that follow-up tweet from meidas is bizarre, $13mm out of a multibillion-dollar pension fund is not "investing heavily". i read through calpers holdings, and they have similar 7 to 8 figure investments spread out across the entire planet in as many niches as possible to try to diversify the fund
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Mar 4, 2022 18:59
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HappyHippo posted:https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1499844253786288133 christ, that's sobering. hopefully joe will repeat the afghanistan withdrawal by not caring about poll numbers when it comes to foreign policy
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Mar 4, 2022 22:25
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E Depois do Adeus posted:Somewhat tangential but what quantity of "semi-luxury" (?) imported goods like coffee, curry powder, graphics cards, things that while not necessary to daily survival are taken for granted in modern life above the poverty line, would Russia have stockpiled in country? Because with the sanctions and the Ruble crash they'll be facing severe shortages on these things they can't produce themselves soon, and that'll lead to a noticeable drop in quality of life for many people. While this may be offset by social media bans, and the people most affected are not Putin's base, the consequences of the war are going to affect the daily lives of even apolitical Russians very soon, probably in a very severe way. i remember a russian poster in this thread already noted that they had bought a big bag of coffee because they figured it would be the last they'd see for a while
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Mar 4, 2022 22:54
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Morrow posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1499891142107693057 if the ground off the roads is bogging down the russians, it'd do the same to the ukranians. they don't need to invest every foot around the city like a medieval siege, they just need to control every major highway and road, and that includes positioning guns in spots that can reliably hit the roads when spotters request fire. plenty of major cities in syria were sieged without some kind of giant ring around the city
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Mar 5, 2022 01:36
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Morrow posted:It's true that war isn't a pure game of numbers, but back of the napkin calculations are valuable for giving us a sense of what is possible. They don't have enough troops to fully encircle Kyiv, defend their exterior lines, and conduct operations elsewhere. That means they need to take one or more of these cities by assault. surely if you don't have the troops to besiege a major city, you definitely don't have the troops to grind through block by block? even if you use thermobarics to reduce the entire city to rubble it'd still be a meat grinder to clear
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Mar 5, 2022 02:03
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this is maybe one of those questions no one can answer due to fog of war, but do we have any indications how ukrainian mobilization of reserves has progressed during the invasion? i seem to recall that the order to call up reservists was only given ~24 hours prior to invasion and the beginning of the russian air and missile campaign. at the time some folks noted that typical mobilization time was several weeks for rank and file and a month for officers. a lot of the coverage i've seen has focused on civilians joining up with scratch territory defense units, but do we have a sense of whether or not the ukranian military is able to get reserve units organized, equipped and deployed? i'm sure the lack of russian air superiority is aiding those kinds of efforts, but it's not clear to me whether it's actual happening if the ukrainians aren't able to reinforce themselves this pause in russia's tempo of operations would still be a national embarrassment, but not something that threatens their ability to win the war i guess my time following the civil war in syria has made me more hesitant to put too much weight on good news for the underdogs in a conflict
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Mar 6, 2022 21:40
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Rinkles posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502207704739233794?s=20&t=JUEJQp_-wJt7iMNiqtYsIw where do you find 16,000 middle eastern fighters worth fielding against a modern regular army in a conventional war? syria doesn't have anywhere near that many high-quality regular forces, and i find it impossible to believe that iran would want to be dragged into this conflict now that the fighting in syria has finally died down. i guess the idea is that even if syrian rank and file don't have much experience fighting a regular army, their urban combat experience will make up for it (which ignores that they were carried to victory by russian air supremacy, and took most major urban centers by siege, not assault)? the optics of it are kind of boggling. i still think this is russia's war to lose, but why do they need to supplement their own forces like this?
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Mar 11, 2022 11:00
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TheRat posted:Isn't that what the Russians have been setting up for/doing after their initial 'rush the king' strategy failed? sure, but if that's accomplished in ukraine it'll be the same way it was in syria, air supremacy and an overwhelming firepower advantage. syrian fighters aren't in any position to help that happen
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Mar 11, 2022 11:14
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KitConstantine posted:This was linked on Twitter as a really good explanation of the exact effects of a nuclear weapon. It's a BBC documentary episode from 1982 called 'Q.E.D - A Guide to Armageddon - Nuclear War Documentary'. i'm still not optimistic about ukraine's long term chances and think that a lot of folks are putting too much stock in ukrainian friendly sources, but my god is this the pendulum swinging too far the other way. he might as well claim that the russians have actually occupied all major cities in the country last week and any reports to the contrary are nazi propaganda
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Mar 14, 2022 02:50
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KitConstantine posted:When oil companies think your country is doing something immoral and don't want to be involved huh, i heard from a friend a while back that schlumberger was pulling all of their people out, but they also said that they had a small footprint in russia to begin with. knowing everyone else is pulling out as well makes it seem more impactful
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Mar 20, 2022 20:57
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Young Freud posted:Kyiv Independent so grain of salt... with all the anecdotes about ukrainian's calling their russian relatives to let them know they're displaced because of the violence and their relatives responding with "that's fake news", i kind of doubt that random social media popups will move the needle a single inch
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Mar 21, 2022 00:45
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Ms Adequate posted:The casualty figures do roughly comport with the numbers western intel has been putting out so it seems reasonably likely to me. the tabloid leak thing was discussed earlier today. the tabloid claims that specific line on casualties was inserted by a hacker, which would be weird, but honestly seems less weird to me than someone in the russian mod leaking these figures to a pro-government tabloid and the writers and editors actually going ahead and running with it MSB3000 posted:If Russia invading Ukraine leads to the deletion of C-SPAM then I guess it will have been worth it. this whole inter-forums slap fight is already incredibly stupid, but this post manages to also be weirdly gross
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Mar 22, 2022 06:48
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CSM posted:https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1506660525106778120?s=20&t=3utdnb366beorfyRnf4X0Q i've seen that exact gis platform before, so i know that sometimes the display of layers can get funky, but just visually that amount of blue doesn't seem significant. maybe the layers are messed up, maybe the gains are on critical locations that put the rest in doubt, but it is just humorous to see someone breathlessly reporting on what visually seems to be tiny slivers of the red polygon
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Mar 23, 2022 18:45
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:you mean google maps? i've seen it too ha, didn't have the video maximized so i missed the watermark. i assumed it was something from esri that all the municipalities around here use which has a very similar look. probably a better approach to paying out the nose for licenses
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Mar 23, 2022 19:01
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headspace posted:"Everything outside of the Donbas was just a feint". Edit: I don't how announcing all this helps them at all. Things are clearly going very poorly for them. if they had just taken this tack from the beginning and concentrated all of their planning and military strength on these limited objectives then i think there's a good chance they would have quickly achieved those objectives and perhaps avoided the worst of the sanctions i suppose at this point russia's best outcome is to occupy as much of eastern ukraine as they can, exhaust the ukrainian military into a deadlock, and hope at some point western nations get tired of the sanctions and armament regimes i wonder if ukrainian advances in the wake of coming russian redeployments will make further western support more or less likely
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Mar 25, 2022 19:27
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Charlotte Hornets posted:Leader and commander of the Ukr volunteer battalion "Freikorps", Georgiy Tarasenko, has fallen in battle near Kharkiv. hmm, not familiar with the outfit, but based on the unit name i find a hard time feeling bad about that particular death
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Mar 26, 2022 23:05
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Young Freud posted:They also liberated the villages in Poltavka and Malynivka in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. i don't see how this could be correct, it seems decently behind previous russian lines with no build up at all with no lead up at all?
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Mar 27, 2022 05:47
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Tomn posted:In fairness, how many New Yorkers know much about a Louisiana summer? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYZzxZh4E8g&t=51s
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Mar 27, 2022 06:51
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feint and tactical withdrawal against an opponent with interior lines you seem still unable to interdict from the air seems like it may have some issues
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Mar 31, 2022 22:52
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i mean if russian news really is confirming that the crew abandoned ship i don't see how it could still be afloat my god, it disgusts me how the sickening tragedy of this war is combined with so many moments of utter farce. why start a war if this is the condition of your forces? it's like a repeat of the austro-hungarian empire eagerly launch a war it was in no position to win
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Apr 14, 2022 03:32
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Rinkles posted:remember waronfakes? man, and oliver stone had such a sterling moral reputation before this
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Apr 16, 2022 23:45
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Youth Decay posted:Per Ukraine General Staff Russia may be preparing a naval landing operation on Mariupol i don't understand, they have a multiple uncontested ground corridors and the remaining ukrainian resistance seems concentrated in few large industrial blocks. what benefit could there possibly be in a naval landing?
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Apr 17, 2022 06:30
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Clearly, as a person from a deeply neoliberal country that remains sovereign exclusively due to American benevolence, with a decadent American job off the back of my American-sponsored education, I must hate Americans for being the menace upon my life. Never would’ve thought that I shall be defeated by facts and logic in my own thread, but here I am, I guess. so much effort to cover up your jealousy that america can produce gross food on a level eastern europeans can only dream about
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Apr 17, 2022 21:21
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