USCE Summer 2022: You can't change the crisis settings.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE Summer 2022: You can't change the crisis settings.

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Jaxyon posted:

If you think anti-choice groups are going to stop with just abortion being legal, they are not

https://twitter.com/robinmarty/status/1538913668376760320

They have boilerplate legislation ready to go that will stop people form even having access to or sharing information.

This will be the fugitive slave act 2.0: this time, the Supreme court will be fine with it. They will 100% compel states to arrest people in violation of other state's laws and extradite them.

# ¿ Jun 21, 2022 15:31

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# ¿ May 12, 2024 01:35

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Srice posted:

A 3 month suspension on the gas tax means that it'd end not terribly long before the midterm elections. Seems a bit short-sighted if the effect of the tax suspension winds up being noticeable, which admittedly isn't something I'd count on without anything being done to prevent the prices at the pump from going up even higher.

(Not counting on this passing at all, mind)

This is going to turn into the student loan thing, where they'll cut the taxes, but not want the heat of increasing the again, so they'll keep pushing the increase back.

Edit: or if it needs to be done by congress, Republicans will cut the tax, then filibuster the extension, making democrats own the increase.

Dumb, boneheaded own goal, that also is more or less a republican policy: solving a problem by cutting taxes, which doesn't actually solve the problem.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 14:52

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Speaking of Florida Governors, DeSantis has moved from "very likely to run" to "definitely running."

He's not asking for Trump's endorsement and doesn't want him to come campaign for his re-election.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1539594397179846657

Even fox is saying trumps in trouble.

I think everyone is about to hang trump out to try and stump for DeSantis for president. The pivot is already under way. Trump won't take it lying down.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 16:35

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

I'd assume that a lot of the DeSantis/Trump base cross over and DeSantis hopes that the desire for a "fresh face" or the feeling of enough people that Trump could lose again will carry him.

DeSantis able to look moderate enough to trick the suburban moderates to vote for Republicans again. He won't tweet and do dumb poo poo, which was the point of contention of the Lincoln project types; that trump was a boor who tweeted too much, never a complaint about his policies.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 17:06

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Fister Roboto posted:

He's just your normal, run of the mill, perfectly sane, hinged fascist.

As long as you couch your hatred in neutral language, people will vote for you.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 17:27

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Democrats are expected to finalize their primary reform plans at the DNC summer meeting and then have a final vote on the new rules and primary states for 2024.

The big changes are:

- Effectively ending Super Delegates by not allowing them to pledge before the convention and only allowing them to vote for whoever they want if nobody receives a majority on the first ballot.

- Increasing the number of early primary states to 5 (from 4) and rotating the first 5 states.

- Giving preference for the early 5 states to states with:

1) Ethnically diverse voting populations.
2) Accessible ballot laws (this includes favoring primaries over caucuses)
3) Urban/rural diversity.
4) General election competitiveness.
5) Higher union representation.
6) Geographical diversity (i.e. At least one state from different regions)

So far, 16 states, Puerto Rico, and Democrats Abroad (lol) have submitted letters of intent asking to be one of the first 5 primary states.

Iowa has submitted one, but is most likely already eliminated because they are insisting on holding a caucus, have low union membership, are not ethnically diverse, and are less competitive in the general election.

Michigan seems to be the favorite to be the new first primary. Nevada also seems almost assured to be keeping an early spot.

New Hampshire and South Carolina have also submitted to keep their early spots, but there seems to be a little more division about them. Iowa is the only current early state that is basically 100% eliminated already.

Honestly, I'm a little surprised so many states are competing to get in early for 2024. There is no rule that says a state that made it into the first 5 last cycle can't be in the first 5 in the next primary cycle, but unless Biden dies in the next 18 months, there is not going to be a competitive primary in 2024. Seems like it would make more sense to shoot for 2028. I feel like there will be pressure to put at least a new state or two in each cycle (even though there is no rule saying they have to swap states each cycle) and 2024 is kind of wasting it.

My vote goes to Democrats Abroad as the new first primary for comedy purposes.

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1539677126735138818

New Jersey is *right there*

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 19:51

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Lib and let die posted:

The reason "we" need a hard scientific quantification for anything is simply that life in Technopoly requires it.

For leftist policy, yes. We need an infinite amount of data to say that putting people in homes reduces homelessness, and they'll say it's not enough.

For conservative policy, "birth control means women will have more sex" is all you need to craft policy.

# ¿ Jun 23, 2022 15:12

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:

States can still require licenses/training

I wonder how long those requirements are going to be around before this court strikes those down.

# ¿ Jun 23, 2022 16:08

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

PT6A posted:

I really, really want to play poker with Collins and Manchin. I have a feeling it would be incredibly lucrative.

Pretty sure you could pull the wallet inspector trick on them, and not even bother with the poker.

# ¿ Jun 24, 2022 21:26

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

B B posted:

Speaking of Harris, we've got an update on the administration's plans for ensuring women's access to abortion:

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1541516323217444868

Still seems like they're without a plan, despite it being several days after the decision and two months after the decision was leaked.

Their plan is do nothing, and ride it to big donations and bigger majorities. This is a foolproof plan that cannot fail.

# ¿ Jun 27, 2022 22:35

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

You are incredibly lucky to live in New Jersey, then.

They just formed a third party called "The Moderate Party" and will be running candidates and gaining ballot access in 2022.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/07/us/politics/new-jersey-moderate-party.html

I cant get in becauae of the paywall - Are there policy objectives in the article? Anyone who talks like that strictly speaks in platitudes, because "moderate" policies always seem to be "Republican policies, but with less visible racism".

# ¿ Jun 29, 2022 16:04

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The blue slip system has been in place since the Senate started, but there is nothing mandating that they do it and they could change the rules if all 50 Dems agreed. But, I imagine that many individual Senators don't want to give up that power/break 225+ years of tradition/fear that McConnell would slow everything else down in retaliation.

I thought Republicans trashed the blue slips when they were in the majoirty a few years ago?

# ¿ Jun 30, 2022 00:03

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

FlamingLiberal posted:

Well Democracy had a good run I guess

https://twitter.com/scotusblog/status/1542521353344913417?s=21&t=qesPTpaIeqESaGXZuuteGA

I can’t imagine them taking this up is going to end well for this country

I can't wait for the legal pretzel that "actually, overruling the voters because the legislature didn't like how they voted is fine and very democratic. Politicians throwing out results they don't like is fine."

# ¿ Jun 30, 2022 17:11

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Bellmaker posted:

DeSantis will get humiliated like Ted Cruz did, Trump genuinely dislikes the guy for some perceived slight.

That slight is "being somewhat popular among people he wants votes from".

# ¿ Jul 4, 2022 13:07

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

BRJurgis posted:

One more question, a crazy hypothetical: say republicans do indeed get majority control (rather than their current minority control) in a few years and themselves enact sweeping gun control or even targeted confiscation. Imagine! How would that go, who would be targeted, and would you ask people to cooperate?

It would start in blue areas first. One, to enable the red areas to visit more violence on a disarmed populace. They would cheer it and make jokes about making it safe to go into cities again. You'd even find some democrats agreeing with it.

When they come to red areas later, most will rationalize it as "they lve made it safe they're not needed anymore". The local SWAT teams would be able to handle any actual force.

# ¿ Jul 6, 2022 13:02

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Ulta posted:

McConnell is the metaphorical scorpion, Joe Biden is the frog, except the scorpion knows how to swim, comes back to the side of the river with all the frogs and convinces another one it will be different this time

In this analogy, though, frog Joe Biden is only temporarily stunned by the poison, and always swims back to the shore. He's given McConnell several rides at this point.

# ¿ Jul 7, 2022 13:12

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

DarkCrawler posted:

https://kion546.com/news/2022/07/07/governor-gavin-newsom-announces-california-will-make-its-own-insulin/

Looks like increasingly your quality of life depends more and more on the state you live in.

You're right. The next few years is going to see a lot of people moving states, especially with the increase of WFH tech, people have more latitude about where they live.

The logic of our current laws makes me think of a Sam Kinison joke: "I solved world hunger! All the hungry kids just need to move to where the food is!"

# ¿ Jul 8, 2022 13:28

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

FlamingLiberal posted:

Yes the Supreme Court is just moving things back in time to the Articles of Confederation period, where the federal government essentially wasn’t allowed to do much and states were all like mini-countries

I disagree.

There will still be a federal government, but it will exist to use the federal supremacy clause to force anti-rights on people - federal bans on LGBT rights, birth control, abortion, federal education standards that emphasize Jesus, mandates on how many voting booths are allowed per district, no matter the size or population of said district. Federal bans on mail in voting and the right of the federal government to disregard who the people vote for and certify the elections for whoever they wish.

These people saw the Handmaid's tale and thought Gilead was too liberal.

# ¿ Jul 8, 2022 15:17

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Best Friends posted:

So given that at least some of the incremental democratic senators needed for a progressive democrat agenda will be more Joe Manchins, clearly more than 12 more senators are needed. How many more? What’s the probable number of incremental democratic senators needed to pass a progressive agenda then?

My guess is about 63 or 65 senators, providing they don't want to get rid of the filibuster. That would be enough seats for the squishy moderates to get hall passes. If we had 50 who wanted to get rid of the filibuster, the number drops to about 55.

Any less and you'll just have moderates skullfucking the agenda, like they are now.

# ¿ Jul 15, 2022 17:21

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Kaboobi posted:

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1549473220427976706

Anyway, enjoy your 6 weeks of vacation!

I'm sure they'll manage to push through that bill shoveling billions to profitable companies though!

# ¿ Jul 19, 2022 22:59

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

papa horny michael posted:

An asterisk on the involved in every history book will be a pretty harsh result, as it's their continued legacy.

I don't think many of them care about this. For one, they likely don't care what history says about them, they'll just understand "I get to keep all my money and escape consequences."

For another, they're trying to set it up so the history books says what they did was cool and good.

# ¿ Jul 23, 2022 00:15

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

VideoGameVet posted:

He'll do the same thing in GOP debates that he did in 2015/6. And the base will love it.

He'll likely win the nomination largely off name recognition and the same way he won last time; a crowded field means he gets 30% of the primary votes and the rest don't break more than five or ten percent each, making him the winner.

They won't voltron behind a candidate like the dems did after Bernie won a few primaries; Republicans are too greedy for that.

And yes, his behavior in the debates will help him, his loud rear end in a top hat persona is still what the base wants.

# ¿ Jul 23, 2022 11:45

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

With the House clear, it looks like all eyes fall upon Sinema.

Yup. She was willing to be alongside Manchin to tank the BBB, but she'll be killing this bill on her own, and people are wondering if shes going to be able to do it.

Honestly, I'm pretty sure she's going to kill it; she probably sees this as her chance to recreate the "John McCain ruins hopes and dreams of the Republican caucus by killing Obamacare repeal" scene. She loves to ride that "maverick, buck-your-own-party" train.

# ¿ Jul 29, 2022 14:21

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Honestly, the craziest part of the trial is the revelation that Infowars is making around $800,000 PER DAY and that Jones is personally taking home about $100,000 of that each day.

And how many people are buying those stupid supplements and "gorilla brain pills" for $139.99 a month.

Wait

Wait

Wait

Hold on

Wait

You're telling me this loving clown is making $100k *a day*?

# ¿ Aug 3, 2022 20:18

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

skylined! posted:

With this raid conducted by a COINTEL guy, who wants to bet that Trump had, like, plans to the F-35 or something he was trying to sell to the highest bidding Russian oligarch?

If this is the case, I'm excited to hear why Republicans think selling state secrets to our enemies is actually cool and good.

# ¿ Aug 9, 2022 16:22

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Kammat posted:

Biden doesn't seem to be holding back in this speech.

He all but called out Graham by name for stoking political violence.

# ¿ Sep 2, 2022 01:19

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

haveblue posted:

If this happens, passing legislature will become much more difficult but making political appointments is unchanged. Executive orders are also unchanged. Anything the House is currently doing will probably be disrupted, most notably the January 6 investigation. There's also a nonzero chance a Republican House will impeach Biden just to own the libs and burn a few weeks of Senate time, but with no chance of conviction

Can the house send their J6 info over to the senate, and have the senate take the baton?

# ¿ Sep 14, 2022 17:34

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Madkal posted:

Here is the messaging to get at Human Trafficker Ron. Ron deSantis cares more about the people in Martha's Vineyard than he does about Floridians and he is spending tax payers money to own the libs instead of helping Floridians.

Using tax money to hurt people is the only use of tax money that's approved by Republicans.

# ¿ Sep 20, 2022 20:29

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# ¿ May 12, 2024 01:35

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

Data Graham posted:

Bring back literal snake oil

Fortified with radium

Yeah, where's my laudanum?

# ¿ Sep 21, 2022 12:19

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE Summer 2022: You can't change the crisis settings.