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Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Toxic Mental posted:

Also you know what's funny as gently caress, GOP freaks in America complain about Iran and poo poo, but that's their ideal country, a single theocratic autocracy with roving unmoderated religious cop gangs

That's straight up what they want the USA to be. You'd think they'd point at Iran like the left points at Norway or something as being a better version of this country

I mean obviously the people in Iran aren't the *correct* religion or skin tone, so that's a no-go. But on paper, you'd think, no?

too me, they are more jealous then anything.





Cocoa Ninja posted:

Wikipedia says that Iran is a pretty youthful country, all things considered. A huge portion of the population is between 20 and 45, and looking at these protest videos I can’t help but wonder if the death of Khamenei, at 83, would be an apt metaphor for the passing of the generational torch.

I leave it to the people who have actually lived there / know more to provide context, but I get the vibe that the old guard of the theocratic regime might have an unrealistic sense of how long it will outlast them at this point.


i think if the regime doesn't implode because of this, it will either have to reform heavly to save itself from these protests coming every year OR it will implode bad.

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Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Randarkman posted:

They're really following their textbook here huh.. God.

Part of what has me scared is that I'm pretty sure this is kind of true

An thatd there is a more sickening option that rather than promise reforms, they might want to make an example. I don't know, probably, hopefully, not, but my mind kind of keeps wandering to Syria, maybe more specifically Hama in 82 than the civil war, but that's still a loving chilling thought and that basically coerced a generation of Syrians into terrified silence.

I mean the thing is using mass killings and terror poo poo can only work for so long before it implodes back on itself.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

ninjoatse.cx posted:

Sadly. It's proven that "so long" is quite long.

i mean it worked for the shah until it didnt.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

bob dobbs is dead posted:

that shits sunni fundamentalism. iran is the most shia country in the world

this. shia doesn't care outside maybe bluring out Muhmmad's face with holy light/flame/etc. they sell big posters of Ali, Hasan, Husayn and others in stalls.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

mobby_6kl posted:

You show that trash can who's boss!



https://i.imgur.com/CtkE4f7.mp4

Any idea if they're targeting the seats of power with these protests? I think that's going to be necessary eventually to provoke a confrontation, otherwise just walking around the towns would peter out eventually without achieving much if anything.

Apparently they have been, I know the Kurdish regions are basically using the opportunity to go independent or at least autonomous.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Cartoon Man posted:

https://i.imgur.com/EemvkEO.mp4



Still going strong tonight. Amazing.

yeah i hope so. i havent seen much news on it in the mainstream news sadly.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

mobby_6kl posted:

This doesn't make sense. The US doesn't hate Iran, it hates the government of Iran. You can tell this because before the 1979 revolution, the US loved Iran.

Traditionally, promoting rebellion against such governments is considered cool and good.

this. america would loving LOVE if iran became a democratic non theocracy again because then we don't have to rely on loving KSA or Israel for oil or partnerships or etc. we friends with iran for better or worse until carter hosed up and didnt throw the shah to the revolution. i think the theocratic goverment is hosed in the long term, they will either have to reform hard or eventually get overthrown or worse the country fractures.


with the US media thing. its probably more because the media doesn't want to look bad when/if the protests get crushed badly plus 20 other news things going on that they "care" more about.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

looks like they havent managed to crush it yet. maybe because the dear leader is about to stroke out and they are in the middle of trying to pick a successor plus all the attempted separatist break away stuff.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

I think the mullahs are hosed. Either they implode when the military and cops and others turn on them Fully or they have to reform hard and end up imploding ussr style.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Pajser posted:

This feels like Syria ten years ago, only there the army was pulled in right at the start and started shooting protesters, after which many soldiers rebeled which kicked off the civil war.

It's not a good feeling.

Possibly but isn’t Iran way more culturally homogeneous plus the protests are happening in most major cities? Like Syria is a different kettle of fish.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

mobby_6kl posted:

Sorry, the last one? I doesn't seem like you can actually see anything despite what it says.


News mostly seems to be about the prison. I don't think you'd be able to see a mortar round but there's something flying in the direction in the video.

https://twitter.com/rishosibil/status/1581418999203909633

https://twitter.com/1Herculepoirot/status/1581555472397905920

https://twitter.com/Omid_M/status/1581462034428104704

https://twitter.com/Omid_M/status/1581419669902086144

Watch out, or some smoothbrained cspam mod will will explain to you in no uncertain terms how it's bad to wish harm to fascist muderers!

yeah it sounds like they the protesters were storming the bastille and poo poo caught on fire and the chuds inside went into purge mode in. hopefully some escaped. i think the regime is genuinly hosed. this isnt gonna just go away.


mobby_6kl posted:

Not seeing much today, maybe internet's limited as these tweets are suggesting

https://twitter.com/Sivism_/status/1581760528976076800

https://twitter.com/Artemis_part/status/1581764580664975360

https://twitter.com/Sivism_/status/1581762431482662912

A thread on some Iranian lobby group. Don't know them and can't say if this is an accurate assessment
https://twitter.com/kshahrooz/status/1581776491171713024

probably overly enthusiastic but it wouldnt shock me if some of the refomers are making "we support a change so i can stay in power/not dragged to death" line.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

yeah, i dont think this shits going away now.

and apperently the mullahs agree.

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1587481109377519616

sounds like they may try to wag the dog so to speak because it saved their asses when iraq invaded.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

yeah, i think they can't crush this. they are killing people in the streets and folks are still marching and fighting back. best case for the regime are either they pull a syria and kill so many no one can't stand against them but they end up in a much much much weaker place and then they end up setting up their fall in future. their other best chance is reforming hard but thats dead now. i think this ends bad for them now.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Samovar posted:

I hope it ends bad for them - that it doesn't become another Syria.

i dont think it does. way less ethnic/religious divrsity and a way way stronger national identity. but agreed. i also don't think the mullahs have the same staying power as assad.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

kntfkr posted:

What if we condemn it? That'll learn 'em!

i think its more, "sure we both hate the goverment, but they dont trust us and doing covert/direct action may just cause a rallying around effect for the goverment" situation. like i am sure the west and other places are quietly doing stuff and its clear the regime can't crush this.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

the mullahs are loving stupid that they are creating this many martyrs when they know that their revolution succedded partly because iran venerates martyrs(cultural and shia stuff) and your just creating more and more.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

mobby_6kl posted:

Yeah you'd think they of all people would know that lol, but I guess they just can't stop murdering kids

Here's something nice for a change

https://i.imgur.com/WAKeiJr.mp4

i mean they were murdering kids after the revolutions by spewing psychotic religious horse poo poo and turning them into loving 40k level suicide infantry irregulars in the iran iraq war.



Nenonen posted:

I wonder if there's any noteworthy motion inside the clergy for reformations to avoid a bloodbath?

at this point no. too many dead and probably a ton of regime chuds hosed up or dead too. too much blood spilled for it to be reform now. either regime dies or they kill astronomical amounts of people to buy themselves a decade until their boomer base dies.


Herstory Begins Now posted:

https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1593419616335937538

I think they're right, it's progressing rapidly, is extremely widespread, people are increasingly fighting back and the regime is using extremely heavy violence in response. Some of the stuff out of Iran looks like an almost carbon copy of what was going on in Syria back in 2011.

yeah, this is gonna get uglier. the regime has lost most of the youth now and probably alot more. the only reason the mullas arnt doing jig from a telephone poll is because they probably have a the military and the guard still. i suspect the military(or portions) may flip if poo poo really kicks off. i dont think the regime has the same streagth as assad though.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Nenonen posted:

what's going on

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/4/iran-prosecutor-general-signals-morality-police-suspended

This seems like a sort of victory, but it's not yet clear if this is a permanent change. It's also totally insufficient after HUNDREDS have died in protests. Hopefully it's a sign that the regime's power is cracking and they will rather ease the pressure instead of going full Tiananmen.

I don’t think the protests are ending anytime soon probably. If they did this a week in, sure. But now is way bigger than just the morality busybody perverts.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Nenonen posted:

what's going on

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/4/iran-prosecutor-general-signals-morality-police-suspended

This seems like a sort of victory, but it's not yet clear if this is a permanent change. It's also totally insufficient after HUNDREDS have died in protests. Hopefully it's a sign that the regime's power is cracking and they will rather ease the pressure instead of going full Tiananmen.

I don’t think the protests are ending anytime soon probably. If they did this a week in, sure. But now is way bigger than just the morality busybody perverts.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

yeah again, i dont think this goes away, but its not gonna be some quick implosion, its gonna be some slow implosion as the regime creates more martyrs which will create more protests.



stephenthinkpad posted:

The clash kind of reminds me the violent protest in Myanmar, which had junta related violent clamp downs 3 times in the last 3 decades. At least in term of the length of the protest is pretty similar to Myanmar. Also how the authoritarian government has a strong hold on the army and part of the security force and some core profitable business but much less so to other part of the society.

this too.

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Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

i guess stuff is still happening i guess.

https://twitter.com/ershadalijani/status/1650863984550219779

also they are closing their giant super mall.

https://twitter.com/ErshadAlijani/status/1648666669726720000

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