MLB Offseason: It's All About the Positions He Doesn't Play

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Who's your 2022 MVP? This poll is closed.
Shohei Ohtani	50	59.52%
Aaron Judge	19	22.62%
Hey, the national league has an MVP too you know!	15	17.86%
Total:	84 votes

[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/status/1579631914931351552
Twins decide to roll it back, except for the team trainer.

They were apparently (no joke) stunned to discover that Tyler Mahle, thrice DL'd for shoulder fatigue this season, wasn't doing shoulder strengthen exercises.

# ¿ Oct 11, 2022 16:37

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 23:50

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

IcePhoenix posted:

I mean he was a good player who I would rather not lose but literally the minute after the contract details came out everyone on the planet knew it was a one year mercenary contract with two years of catastrophic injury insurance for him

Given the obviously, fatally flawed team, Maeda's return next season, the series of pitchers with multiple years of control they picked up...

I really don't know why Falvine didn't move him at the deadline. Besides the obvious: Gotta sell them tickets. As if any amount of single game sales would have made up for the anemic season ticket base at the start of the year or prevented an alltime low at Target Field. Further proof that the new stadium attendance bump is back to baseline ~10 years in

# ¿ Oct 13, 2022 16:47

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

IcePhoenix posted:

They were still in contention at the deadline and made moves reflecting that, moving Correa would have been dumb.

If they hadn't added three pitchers then yeah, I was on the same mindset as you are, but they absolutely made win now moves that just happened not to work for various reasons.

And I'd be in the same mindset as you, except the two meaningful pitchers both had multiple years of control, as did Gray and Paddack in the spring. Fullmer and Leon were the rentals and nothing of note was given up for them. Moving Correa for nearterm help wouldn't have gone totally against the grain.

# ¿ Oct 13, 2022 21:26

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

IcePhoenix posted:

I dunno man I think you're just heavily jaded by hindsight in this one

Paracaidas, July 30th posted:

Don't know if it's the right move, but am awful curious about Correa's trade value. How much would it take for that to be worthwhile for the Twins?

Not entirely hindsight

They'd have gotten absolutely killed by the press if they made that move, and with Royce's injury it'd have been rightly called waving the white flag without anyone to competently fill in. I don't think his absence would have hurt their odds of making it out of the ALDS much, but a solid return would probably have made them 2023 AL Central favorites with the extremely young offense and a rotation of Maeda, Kahnle, Ryan, Gray, and $30m to spend in FA.

That said, not much in the way of comparable hitter rentals at the deadline over the past few years and it's hardly as if they can expect to run into another Cruz for Ryan situation where they profit from a coming 40man crunch... so possible they tried and were stymied by teams saving ammo for Soto etc

# ¿ Oct 14, 2022 00:25

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Kirios posted:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't the Twins right there in the AL Central division race (if not leading it) by the time the deadline came around? Hindsight and all, but they would have been blasted if they traded away their best player.

Think they were a game or two back but fangraphs has them as a coinflip for playoffs as of 8/1.

Not channeling Yankee fans by braying for Falvine's ~~blood~~ jobs based on the made and not made deadline moves or anything and "we have to remain competitive in baseball's worst division if we can" is valid (if not a mindset of future champions), but not going to feel like I'm riding hindsight for pointing out that the cause of collapse was largely predictable and their focus on controllable pitchers suggests that they were trading with at least an eye on 2023 rather than going all-in for 2022.

# ¿ Oct 14, 2022 00:36

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

IcePhoenix posted:

They were leading the division on 8/2 by a game over Cleveland and 2 over the White Sox

My dumbass was sorting by playoff odds :v:

Kirios posted:

Yeah I'm sorry Paracaidas but I can only see your points as ones made with the power of hindsight. You cannot expect the Twins FO to think "Well we're winning but this is clearly unsustainable so let's dump Correa!".

"We have the 7th best odds in the AL for making the playoffs and some glaring deficiencies on the roster" is typically the range that teams start listening on their rentals. It's not as if the collapse was unpredictable (48.8% odds on fangraphs is functionally 'as likely as not'), and moving him (for a return that'd have helped in 2023) wouldn't have been entirely out of step with their trade strategy all year.

Not a hill I'm looking to die on, though! "We should have sold" is the traditional battlecry for fans with underwhelming Septembers.

# ¿ Oct 14, 2022 02:00

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

camoseven posted:

Padres... hello!

https://twitter.com/sdutKevinAcee/status/1584345968153022465

Fated, it turns out.

# ¿ Oct 24, 2022 03:05

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Troxartas posted:

This is almost as bad as the Yankees being eliminated, Lindseys work was always great https://twitter.com/lindseyadler/status/1584623943222448128

Given Lindsey's posting bonafides I'm guessing this is like Arif and a number of others choosing to GTFO of NYT's extremely restrictive social media & social issues policies. At least, hoping it was her choice. But then, cutting back on NYT/Athletic coverage overlap would make sense to shortsighted morons and Lindsey's the easier to drop if that's the goal.

# ¿ Oct 24, 2022 21:12

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

FlamingLiberal posted:

Are they actually under those same social media guidelines? I've seen conflicting things about this.

I could have been more clear. After the purchase, NYT instituted a social media and social issues policy for Athletic writers that was essentially the polar opposite of what they signed up for. To my understanding it is not the same as the policy for staffers for the Times proper.

# ¿ Oct 24, 2022 23:09

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

mcmagic posted:

The Yankees as they are currently run where they don�t spend like the other teams at their level of revenue will let Judge walk.

Yankees opening day payroll rank in the past decade:
2022: 3rd
2021: 2nd
2020: 1st
2019: 3rd
2018: 7th
2017: 2nd
2016: 2nd
2015: 2nd
2014: 2nd
2013: 1st

# ¿ Oct 26, 2022 14:59

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

mcmagic posted:

Do payroll as a percentage of revenue now.

Learn something new every day, didn't realize baseball even had goalposts.

mcmagic posted:

The Yankees as they are currently run where they don�t spend like the other teams at their level of revenue will let Judge walk.

The Forbes estimates should never be used as a denominator given their systematic flaws in valuing for unique ancillary revenue schemes (Battery, SportsnetLA, etc), but we'll go with it and look at the 5 teams estimated to make $400m+ in revenues, noting the Yankees ($482m) are closer to Number 5 (Cubbies, $425m) on the list than Number 1 (Dodgers, $565m).

Yankees opening day payroll rank among the 5 clubs estimated to make $400m+ in revenue:
2022: 2nd
2021: 2nd
2020: 1st
2019: 3rd
2018: 4th
2017: 2nd
2016: 2nd
2015: 2nd
2014: 2nd
2013: 1st

Which makes it even more clear that the Yankees do spend as much or more than most teams at their level of revenue.

# ¿ Oct 26, 2022 15:48

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

mcmagic posted:

The point I've made here over and over again is that the yankees had a 200mm payroll 12 years ago. It clearly hasn't increased with the revenues. They are spending FAR less of a % of the revenue on the payroll as they used to. That is just a fact. They have used the luxury tax as a reason not to do player moves in a way the Steve Cohen Mets and the Dodgers just don't. Also their issue is clearly not just that they don't spend enough, they have done a terrible job allocating the money they do spend.

All of this is accurate and they, like drat near all MLB teams, ought to spend more.

The claim that they "don�t spend like the other teams at their level of revenue", though, was wholly inaccurate.

# ¿ Oct 26, 2022 18:06

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

MrMidnight posted:

I know the first things players say after winning the World Series is "Boy we sure got lucky!"

Well, sure. Can happily acknowledge my team's successes are based solely on its strengths and weaknesses. Every other series? Basically an RNG.

# ¿ Oct 26, 2022 20:25

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Sydin posted:

The GG/SS nominations are particularly quixotic this year. Can't wait to see who gets absolutely snubbed for MVP/Cy!

Manny's GG snub is in preparation for his MVP, imo

# ¿ Oct 28, 2022 00:34

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Johnny Bravo posted:

https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1589371130225184769

Is this a record for earliest worst deal of the offseason?

# ¿ Nov 7, 2022 07:21

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

mcmagic posted:

It's not a bad deal at all. They kept an impact player they couldn't lose and the money was sitting in Uncle Stevie's ashtray, who cares?

They can afford it so easily that more than a quarter of the deal is deferred money :thunk:

. Mets and deferred money, relievers and longterm deals, four great tastes that taste great together.

Diaz can optout after year 3, which he will in a heartbeat if he's remotely close to worth the money... which itself would be beating extremely long odds. 60/3 is an aggressive deal for a closer but more in the realm of standard overpay that doesn't matter to a rich owner -- likely he'll never be "worth" that money, but he's one of the few people you'd bet on being a top 10 reliever each of those years and that's a luxury worth paying for for teams that can afford it.

Kimbrel's performance over his first deal is one of the better outcomes here, and even that saw two trades and half the money for a pitcher who had a much better track record of success. It's not unprecedented for a reliever to put up that sort of performance over 5 years after becoming FA eligible... you'd just have to be pretty drat sure Diaz is Mo or Andrew Miller and not Champan, Iglasies, Jansen, Holland, Gagn�, or any of their ilk. The extreme flyball pitcher who'd had 1.5 seasons worth close to this money until posting the two lowest HR/FB seasons of his career is one of the last people I'd place that bet on. Relievers are by nature volatile, and he's an obvious regression candidate on top of it. Instead they've given away the deal's limited upside and guaranteed they get to own every second of the downside with the NTC.

Happy for Diaz and for all of us though. Narco kicks rear end and lolmets ensures we'll get 3 or 5 years of Taps ft Timmy Trumpet.

# ¿ Nov 7, 2022 16:17

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

SilvergunSuperman posted:

Is there some sort of valuable prize associated with this?

Yup, and it's about as valuable as the hardware given out last night after the BBWA irrevocably tarnished the awards by making the wrong decision in both leagues :colbert:

# ¿ Nov 18, 2022 13:53

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Field of Theseus

# ¿ Nov 18, 2022 16:02

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

MrMidnight posted:

So much for using the young kids at SS

There are zero kids in the farm that Yankees fans should want as a backup/utility IF over IKF, honestly. They've been around him all year, provided he adds anything positive to the clubhouse I'd take him on $6m for a year over Andrus or Iglasies.

# ¿ Nov 18, 2022 21:49

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

seiferguy posted:

- ultimately a toxic front office, and you see it in their AGM yelling at a female reporter how happy they were to acquire a domestic abuser, which kind of feeds into the "win at any cost" thing.

Also having to talk down execs from signing Heimlich is... better than signing him but still :chloe:

seiferguy posted:

- obviously the cheating thing. MLB giving immunity to the players that cheated didn't help, and for them to do a long, sustained system without anyone shutting it down is incredibly messed up. If the players involved were suspended I probably would have been okay with it.

Loathe as I am to credit Manfred, I think he read the CBA properly here- MLB lacked the authority to suspend the players. Given bullshit like the Terrelle Pryor nonsense in the NFL, I don't hate the bargained for strict limitations.

# ¿ Nov 19, 2022 18:40

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Red posted:

Hot Take: I feel that the largest players in MLB should be on the Giants

Monkey Paw posted:

Miguel Sano is a San Francisco Giant

Actual news, Athletic has post-AFL Prospect Chat:

quote:

Here, the result of conversations with several scouts with several big-league organizations, is a rundown of the top 10 they liked � as well as five on whom they couldn�t agree.

Note these aren't "The 10 Best AFL prospects", just ones who generated the most discussion.

quote:

1. Jackson Merrill, SS, ~~Future centerpiece of an Ohtani deal~~Padres
There used to be competition for the title of Best Padres Prospect, but the mass exodus to Washington in the Juan Soto trade leaves Merrill more or less alone. Good thing for the Padres that he�s one of the best prospects in the game. Though his fall numbers weren�t stunning � a .261/.316/.352 line in 22 games � no player generated as many positive reviews from scouts as the No. 27 pick in the 2021 draft. �Most scouts are salivating over him,� one scout said, �and even the low guys think he�s good.�

In their first extended look at Merrill, who was limited to only 45 games at Low A this year due to a wrist injury, evaluators saw a player with a projectable body and a feel to hit. Only 19, Merrill stands at 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds, carrying himself more like a 22-year-old than a teenager. He�ll fill out more, but not in a way that leads scouts to think he�ll have to move off shortstop. At the plate, the left-handed hitter shows signs of good plate discipline, as well as the ability to spray the ball over the field. The power, they think, will come.

It hasn�t yet, and no one�s predicting home run titles for Merrill in the first place. He�ll have to get the ball off the ground more often � Merrill had a 59-percent groundball rate at Low A � but could wind up hitting 15 to 20 homers a year. Put the whole package together, another scout said, and Merrill�s �got a chance to be really, really good.�

2. Edouard Julien, 2B, Twins
Go ahead, take a moment and say the Quebec native�s name. Put your best French accent on it. Eh-dwar Jool-yen. Fun, right? You might get to say it a lot more, because Julien might be headed for a notable big-league career. While no one is saying he was the second-best prospect in the AFL � this is a ranking of guys who turned heads, not a long-term value projection � Julien caught the attention of plenty of scouts.

It�s the on-base, baby. Julien worked 23 walks this fall � one more than he had strikeouts, and two more than he had games played � to get aboard at a .563 clip. That�s long been in the former 18th-rounder�s toolbox, with 98 walks this regular season and 110 the year before. But the 23-year-old offers more than just his eye. He�s capable of hitting the ball hard � �Hit seeds all fall league,� said one scout � and there�s a chance he learns to hit more homers. He had five this fall, although he may need to iron out some kinks in his mechanics to be able to pull the ball for power consistently.

The defense at second is � not so great. Few scouts, if any, think he�ll ever be more than passable at the keystone. Julien tends to double-clutch every throw, and a move to first base could be in his future. But the bat � which one scout compared to Twins� breakout star Luis Arraez, �but more selective, more power,� � will keep him in a lineup, potentially for a lengthy big-league career.

Happy to c/p blurbs on the remainder if folks want

quote:

3. Mason Miller, RHP, Athletics
4. Jeferson Quero, C, Brewers
5. Jordan Walker, OF, Cardinals
6. Heston Kjerstad, OF, Orioles
7. Evan Reifert, RHP, Rays
8. Bryan Woo, RHP, Mariners
9. Nick Gonzales, 2B, Pirates
10. Emmet Sheehan, RHP, Dodgers

5 controversial:

quote:

1. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Rangers
2. Zac Veen, OF, Rockies
3. Henry Davis, C, Pirates
4. Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals
5. Matt Mervis, 1B, Cubs

1 case of the Times-owned Athletic dutifully playing yankee hype machine:

quote:

Switch-hitting Yankees outfielder Jasson Dominguez _{posted dismal numbers this fall, but} the 19-year-old left evaluators impressed with his skill set.

# ¿ Nov 21, 2022 17:05

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Penisaurus Sex posted:

Bryan Woo rising that quickly is pretty cool. I think he profiles as strictly a 'pen arm in the majors though.

Some scout disagreement but TINSTAAP etc

quote:

Woo hasn�t pitched much this year after going in the sixth round a year ago, having missed half the year after taking a James Wood line drive to the head in extended spring training. His work in the fall league was similarly limited, with just 10 2/3 innings in five outings. (He allowed one run and struck out 16.) But the stuff the 6-2 righty possesses was apparent.

The highlight is a fastball that can run up to 98 mph, although it can sometimes get a little flat and hittable. He also has a slider and changeup that flash average to plus, although both need to become more consistent. His delivery is �nice, easy, effortless,� said one scout, which along with his repertoire gives him a chance to remain a starter.

How good a starter? �He pencils in as a No. 3 or 4 starter for me,� said another evaluator. A third put even more oomph behind his projection. �One of the most under-appreciated pitching prospects in the game,� that scout said. The Reds were rumored to have asked for Woo as part of the Luis Castillo deal. The Mariners, knowing what they have, said no.

# ¿ Nov 21, 2022 17:22

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Intruder posted:

91 wins for the Dodgers huh

The last time they had a win rate that low was 2016 and it hasn't been below that since 2012

Just to clarify/reiterate, the projection assumes entirely internal replacements for the Turners, Bellinger, Anderson, etc

# ¿ Nov 24, 2022 15:26

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

R.D. Mangles posted:

lol it is incredibly dumb to do projections before we know who will even be on a team

All depends on the usage!

quote:

These 2023 projections are guaranteed to be awful, wrong in many ways ranging from tragic to comic. But despite being absolutely premature and littered with horrible misses, projected standings at this point are actually quite useful, and useful is the best description any kind of predictive model can strive for. Standings at this point are a poor predictor of the 2023 season � and even the eventual 2023 projections themselves � but what they are able to do is give a �state of the union� estimate for each team. These standings represent the best estimates ZiPS can make at this point about where a team sits in the league�s pecking order, based solely on the players currently under contract with the team. It�s hard to get where you want to go if you don�t know where you�re starting.

The methodology I�m using here is the same one I use in the regular season, and as such, it isn�t identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings. So how does ZiPS calculate the upcoming season? Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered through ~~arbitrary whimsy~~ my logic and reasoning.

To his point, I'm sure almost all teams (hi Rockies!) have an internal version of this to help guess which teams are in on which free agents, where they have surpluses and needs for trade, and to help assess signing impacts and competitive positioning.

I mean, to some degree the options are something like this or having the Jim Bowden of your staff assess every team's needs going into the offseason. Since Jim is no longer a viable front office member and peddles his crusty, vibesbased insights in The Athletic, it's nice to have a more applicable counterpart in the public domain too.

# ¿ Nov 24, 2022 16:15

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Speaking of Jimmy's insights, The Athletic had him review beat writer proposed trades for Blue Jays catchers.

quote:

Nootbaar and RHP Michael McGreevy to Blue Jays for Kirk

Bowden�s verdict: I think the Cardinals will value game calling, pitch framing, leadership and the ability to shut down the running game over offence in trying to improve at catcher. As much as I love Kirk�s bat, I think St. Louis would prefer a better defensive catcher. For the Blue Jays, it�s probably time to let Moreno be the full-time catcher with Kirk as his backup and most of the time as the DH. Therefore, I think Jansen, who has only two years of team control left, is the one Toronto should move.

I like the idea of Nootbaar being part of the return because the Blue Jays badly need left-handed bats to better balance the lineup, but in my opinion, they should consider Alec Burleson over him; he�s also a left-handed hitter, and long term I like his bat better than Nootbaar�s. Both are expendable from the Cardinals� perspective, with Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson, and Tyler O�Neill their expected starting outfield in 2023 and Mois�s G�mez in the minors as additional outfield depth.

I think the Blue Jays should try to get a future bullpen piece back in the trade, too � someone like Inohan Paniagua, a hard-throwing righty who struck out 145 in 137 2/3 innings as a starter last year in A ball. He could rise fast to the majors as a set-up reliever. Nootbaar or Burleson and Paniagua for Jansen would be my suggested trade for the Blue Jays.

Keep in mind, the Cardinals prefer Sean Murphy of the A�s over Jansen and could also sign a defensive catcher such as Christian V�zquez in free agency without making a trade.

quote:

San Diego Padres send OF Trent Grisham to Blue Jays for Jansen

Bowden�s verdict: The Padres first have to decide where they�ll play Tatis in the outfield. I�d play him in right field and Juan Soto in left field, and if that�s what they decide to do, I would keep the Gold Glove defence of Grisham in between them. I do like the idea of Jansen platooning with Nola behind the plate, and maybe there�s a three-way deal where Campusano could go to the Cardinals, Burleson and Paniagua to the Blue Jays and Jansen to the Padres. I like that concept better for all three teams.

quote:

Chicago Cubs trade OF Ian Happ and RHP Adbert Alzolay to Blue Jays for Jansen

Bowden�s verdict: I would not make this trade if I were the Cubs, but if I were the Blue Jays, I would call a press conference to announce the deal if we received this offer. Happ�s versatility and switch-hitting ability combined with his .342 on-base percentage and 4.4 bWAR last season make it a no-brainer for Toronto. They could play him at second base or in left field and let him be another table setter for the middle of their lineup. Alzolay, if healthy, could provide swing-and-miss innings for the bullpen, which is an area they�ve been looking to improve. But if I�m the Cubs, I�m pursuing Moreno because I think they need to be thinking longer term than Jansen.

quote:

Chicago White Sox send RHP Liam Hendriks, OF Gavin Sheets, OF Yoelqui C�spedes and $10 million to Blue Jays for Kirk

Bowden�s verdict: I�m rejecting the trade if I�m the Blue Jays. I have four years of control of Kirk compared to two years of control of Hendriks, and we all know the risks that come with closers from year to year. Also, I like C�spedes�s tools, but I�m not sure how much he�s going to hit. I know Kirk is going to hit and get on base.

quote:

Boston Red Sox send RHP Josh Winckowski or RHP Kutter Crawford and OF Jarren Durran to Blue Jays for Jansen

Bowden�s verdict: If I�m the Blue Jays, I�m going to pass because I agree with Red Sox�s top evaluators that Duran isn�t going to hit enough. He doesn�t get great jumps or take the best angles in the outfield, though he does outrun some of his mistakes. He struggles against off-speed pitches, which leads me to believe he has depth perception issues, so I wouldn�t be interested in trading for him unless I could test his eyes first. Crawford and Winckowski are solid throw-ins in this type of deal but not enough for Toronto to pull the trigger on this package.

quote:

Minnesota Twins send OF Max Kepler, RHP Jordan Balazovic, RHP Cole Sands and $4.8 million to Blue Jays for Jansen

Bowden�s verdict: I don�t like the trade for the Blue Jays, but the concept makes sense as they�d get a left-handed hitting platoon outfielder in Kepler and a couple of young, affordable arms. However, Kepler has never moved the needle for me, and I�d rather sign Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger or Andrew Benintendi in free agency than make this deal. Also, I worry about the health of Balazovic, who in the last two years has walked four batters per nine innings after starting his career by walking just two per nine. Is he healthy? Sands is just a back-of-rotation depth starter for me. I need more quality and less quantity in a Jansen trade.

quote:

Cleveland Guardians send Cal Quantrill and OF George Valera to Blue Jays for Kirk

Editor�s note: While Zack hemmed and hawed over what the Guardians could do, Kaitlyn went ahead and suggested Quantrill and Valera for Kirk.

Bowden�s verdict: I think this is a fair-value trade for both sides. Blue Jays get another legitimate starter and a solid left-handed hitting outfield prospect. Guardians get a solution at catcher. Both sides should consider this trade.

quote:

Detroit Tigers send RHP Joe Jim�nez and a lottery-ticket prospect to Blue Jays for Jansen

Bowden�s verdict: If I�m the Blue Jays, I offer Jansen for Jim�nez and Austin Meadows. However, if I�m the Tigers, I need longer-term solutions than two years of Jansen. Therefore, they should pursue a trade for Moreno or Kirk. That said, a package of Jim�nez and Meadows for Moreno or Kirk won�t work for the Blue Jays. Bottom line: I don�t see these teams matching up.

# ¿ Nov 24, 2022 16:40

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

bawfuls posted:

Right, but those guys aren�t collectively worth 20 wins. Maybe it also doesn�t include Kershaw who has technically not re-signed yet though reports were he was close several weeks ago. Still a wild drop.

IIRC most projection systems (and ZIPs in particular) will never return W/L totals on the tails, as outliers are dragged back to the pack.

Which is to say assuming the entire roster returns and ignoring age-related changes might sneak the Dodgers up to 100 but even that would be pretty rare by projection standards. Last year's final ZIPs, for instance, saw the projections range from 64 (baltimore) - 93 (Dodgers), where reality had 4 teams below 64 and 6 teams at 93 or above.

# ¿ Nov 24, 2022 17:09

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

I was reminded of gyroball's wonderful Baseball Mogul Let's Plays today, so now all of you are too.

The saga of Dale Cooper, Laura Palmer, Zack Greinke, and our protagonist: Strike-O-Matic

# ¿ Nov 30, 2022 15:58

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Inspector_666 posted:

It cost Sinclair $10b to buy up all of their rights, and MLB ending blackouts doesn't stop them from broadcasting on cable as well. Most of the RSNs end up in long and acrimonious fights with the cable carriers anyway, so you'd have to assume the teams that own them would rather just get the money straight from people regardless.

The RSN/carrier brouhaha is over carriage fees, which is why the economics of the bolded also don't work.

Overly simplified: RSNs want to be on each carrier (cable and OTT)'s basic offering, because they get paid per subscriber not per subscriber who watches their station. As ESPN/Disney have been learning with their aggressive push on ESPN+, there aren't enough people willing to pay for live sports to make up for all the people paying for live sports who don't give a gently caress about them.

If this sounds like a moot point because precovid RSN financials were shaky at best, OTT products have ditched RSNs without fatal consequences, and cordcutting isn't slowing down, you'd be correct. But the golden eggs of a cancerous goose spend the same.

# ¿ Dec 1, 2022 04:25

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Padres leaking interest in Turner is actually just a roundabout way of signalling interest for Verlander if they miss out on Senga :thunk:

# ¿ Dec 2, 2022 16:02

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

bees x1000 posted:

Why does the internet like to bring Verlander's wife into the mix? I mean, I know why, it's just creepy and awkward. I would not pay what JV is asking.

A spouse having personal/professional ties to an area is a fairly common free agent talking point, even when they aren't famous models/actresses/etc.

Which makes sense for a lot of players, where diminishing returns/marginal utility of wealth kicks in to make a difference in offers of $5-$15m negligible (must be nice)

# ¿ Dec 2, 2022 16:18

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Good Dog posted:

Where would the Padres have even played Turner? With Manny at 3rd and whatever is going on with Tatis' suspension/injury at Short, with Kim having a fantastic year there in his place, and Croenworth having an all star season at 2B there doesn't really seem to be room for him.

Machado/Turner/Kim/Cronenworth in the IF (Crone's played a fair bit of first) and then Tatis in right and Soto in left.

Your downside is that the bats aren't as elite when they're moved down the defensive spectrum and, as FlamingLib notes, that rotation (and bench) need some love. Have to imagine the logic centers around Machado's optout opportunity (which I thought Soto was intended as insurance/an alternative spending target for). Or they'll just spend $everything on former Preller targets. I respect it

# ¿ Dec 6, 2022 02:34

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Trent Grisham nervously burning copies of the repoet before Preller sees them

# ¿ Dec 7, 2022 04:08

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

davecrazy posted:

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1600488513148841985

PADRES MYSTERY TEAM!!!

I'm sure Preller has a plan.

gently caress if I know what it is, but

# ¿ Dec 7, 2022 15:53

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

San Diego press reporting that Preller and Seidler met with Judge at the last minute but never put out a formal offer and didn't even consider themselved close, which tracks and is starkly different than Turner. Maybe just theatre to show Manny they'll continue to be aggressive in advance of his optout next year?

mcmagic posted:

And you could say that they should just do exactly what the Braves do with their young players but that would imply that they have any good young players worth keeping around for any period of time younger than Judge which they don't. (Other than a few RPs)

A shocking turn of events for the team that mere months ago could have easily put together the best package for Soto (without touching many top prospects) if only they weren't small time losers and instead cared about winning.

zoux posted:

But also lmao at going on vacation during basically your busiest week at work.

Wealthy douchebag flex. He can because everyone else will have to adapt to him and he likes reminding them of that-- particularly when other owners are flexing by spending money instead.

# ¿ Dec 7, 2022 16:20

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Nodoze posted:

If Bob says they offered that then they definitely didn't

Yeah, from Acee at San Diego Union Tribune:

quote:

They were in on Aaron Judge. Not in for very long. But in.

Their meeting with Judge � Tuesday night in their home ballpark � was late enough that they didn�t actually make a formal offer to the right fielder.

They were far more in on Judge than they were on Bryce Harper, who a contingent from the team visited in Las Vegas in 2019. They were far less in on him than they were on Trea Turner, who they visited with twice last month.

Judge ended up agreeing to remain with the Yankees for nine years and $360 million, a record deal that became public Wednesday morning. The $40 million average salary is the highest in MLB history for a position player.

The Padres weren�t close to getting Judge. But the fact they tried is absurd enough.

# ¿ Dec 7, 2022 16:35

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

bawfuls posted:

or maybe every team can afford to spend on good players and the "small market" line is bullshit billionaires use to depress labor costs

Also the Padres have nearly $60mil coming off the books in pitching after this season and another $35m after Manny opts out :shrug:

Building around Tatis, Xander, and (probably) one of Soto or Machado for literally the next decade doesn't strike me as the worst plan.

# ¿ Dec 8, 2022 06:52

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

bawfuls posted:

the flaw in that plan is in this post: they need pitching after this year

People keep talking about planning for roboumps but the Preller StrikeOMatic plan has legs!

# ¿ Dec 8, 2022 07:01

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

MrMidnight posted:

Best 1-4 in the game?

https://twitter.com/TalkinBaseball_/status/1600732466007969793?s=20&t=KPEsgGkyKqTjsxgzT4m-tw

I wouldn't be surprised to see something like Kim and a couple pitching prospects (or Morejon) for Kepler and Arraez.

# ¿ Dec 8, 2022 07:39

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Nodoze posted:

I wonder if they will try to get rid of Tatis now, see if he can rebuild some value first, or just hold onto him

Ignoring that he's got a full no trade until 2029, I'm not sure why they would? He doesn't pass $20m until 2027 (his age 28 season) and, short of the rest of baseball getting as naked about collusion as Hal and Steve, seems it seems unlikely that $36m in your mid 30s is going be albatrossian by the time 2030 rolls around. Even coming off of pissing hot, I would imagine a Tatis trade making Soto's look like bargain hunting... it's tough to fathom where that would begin.

# ¿ Dec 8, 2022 15:41

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 23:50

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

IcePhoenix posted:

can Kim play shortstop because I sure as hell don't want Polanco moving there

6th best SS in baseball by UZR and DRS, 8th by OAA, with a 105 wRC+

Makes $7m this season (his age 27 season), $8m next year, and has a similar mutual option that he'll almost certainly decline after next year. When I first pitched that, I thought we'd be getting back 3 years of team control and not two, but I'm not sure how much that changes my opinion

# ¿ Dec 8, 2022 16:03

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > MLB Offseason: It's All About the Positions He Doesn't Play

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