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J.A.B.C.
Jul 2, 2007

There's no need to rush to be an adult.


Jihad Joe posted:

I was excited to see what the previous thread had done to get locked. I am Jack's sense of disappointment

Same, same. But the new thread is a lot more organized and clean. Congrats to Cinci for the great work.

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J.A.B.C.
Jul 2, 2007

There's no need to rush to be an adult.


cinci zoo sniper posted:

I simply don’t have time reserved for watching videos in my day. For instance, I haven’t watched a single YouTube video in the last 30 days.

Gonna echo the earlier sentiment: you have been doing great work here in the thread, and I don't think anyone would blame you for taking some time to yourself. War sucks. Reporting on war, especially in today's media environment, also sucks and will tire you out quick.

J.A.B.C.
Jul 2, 2007

There's no need to rush to be an adult.


Republicans supporting Putin is not surprising in the least, and the fact that their entire platform is 'oppose Democrats' just fits nicely with that in mind.

J.A.B.C.
Jul 2, 2007

There's no need to rush to be an adult.


RockWhisperer posted:

I don't understand what you mean by "lock-in." Water infrastructure is my wheelhouse. If the dam was breached, flooding would ensue for perhaps two or three days (depending upon the stream morphology, how it's breached, and what you define as flooding). There would undoubtedly be infrastructure damage downstream, but I thought the major bridges were already damaged (correct me if I'm wrong since don't have time to check). Breaching the dam would serve mostly to cover a hasty retreat and sever another source of electricity.

My gut tells me they're not going to do something so stupid as breach the dam. More likely they'd let the gates open and release as much water as possible. It'd allow for longer, more controlled flooding and still prevent cross-river navigation.

From what I understand, the dam also controls the water that Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant uses to cool. And given how Russia has targeted infrastructure, I could see them blowing the dam in order to gently caress over the power plant as a method to worsen the humanitarian situation and force a negotiation.

It's unnecessarily cruel and destructive, but that's kinda been the Russian MO for this whole conflict.

J.A.B.C.
Jul 2, 2007

There's no need to rush to be an adult.


KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

A security guarantee does not require forward bases in Ukraine.

Edit plus there are of course forward US bases bordering Russia in Poland and the Baltics; it’s not exactly a new security threat.

I spent 6 months in Estonia as a PAO, covering our training with the defense force there. We had a small team take part in a soapbox derby in Narva, literally a river away from Russia.

We did tank live-fire exercises, airborne jumps and NATO combined exercises. We taught them how to use TOWs and Javelins, and took part in their parades and military morale exercises like the Admiral Pitka.

We have had a sizeable presence in the Baltics for years now, and never hid it once. But it wasn't until Putin needed a pretext for a war that the whole 'NATO Escalation' flag got waved. Hell, we had trainer teams In Ukraine since 2015 as part of the US commitment to help shore up the UAF after Crimea was stolen.

J.A.B.C.
Jul 2, 2007

There's no need to rush to be an adult.


CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

Ukraine is probably quite happy to just sit there and keep inflicting damage to Russian forces (They also hve not lost Bakhmut). Russia have been pouring their best resources into the area for months now for something with no importance whatsoever while Ukraine have turned it into a Russian meatgrinder

Why on earth Russia have put so much into trying to gain anything into this bloodbath is anyone's guess, it's just insanity and an incredible waste of life

My best guess is Sunk Cost: given how much effort has been thrown into Bakhmut, and how even miniscule gains can be seen as 'pushing back' when the rest of your lines are collapsing, the commanders on ground are most likely desperate to show off a 'win'. They can at least point to Bakhmut and go 'see, at least we're giving them hell unlike those other slackers in Kherson!' even as they gain nothing of strategic value, lose more troops and time and get closer to seeing the inside of a jail cell.

And after a bit it could even have a bad feedback loop: Bakhmut hasn't dissolved yet, so we MUST be doing better than Donetsk or Luhansk or Kherson. Commanders on ground getting tunnel vision, commanders in region wanting to cover their rear end, and commanders in the Kremlin desperate to not have a Polonium Tea Party.

J.A.B.C.
Jul 2, 2007

There's no need to rush to be an adult.


The $15bn in humanitarian aid is good to see.

J.A.B.C.
Jul 2, 2007

There's no need to rush to be an adult.



Remember: the last Authorization bill was $816.7 Billion.

For 2.5 percent of our defense spending, we have provided everything from weapons to humanitarian aid, done incredible damage to one of our largest adversaries and kept people alive during a brutal invasion. With what was essentially a bunch of stuff two days before the 'best by' date.

Even in the most myopic, terrible sense that doesn't factor in the humanitarian aid, supporting Ukraine has been one of the best investments against a 'near-peer' threat in the modern age. The fact that it has also been done for the closest thing you can find to an unambiguously good cause, defending a sovereign nation against an unjust attack, is another plus.

J.A.B.C.
Jul 2, 2007

There's no need to rush to be an adult.


Bradleys are cantankerous, loud obnoxious vehicles. They also are fast for a tracked vehicle, take a beating and are generally low maintenance while allowing you to move troops across dangerous terrain and provide support with a 30mm that'll shred anything short of rolled steel plating.

And we mostly moved over to the Stryker, we might as well give them a good home.

J.A.B.C.
Jul 2, 2007

There's no need to rush to be an adult.


Raenir Salazar posted:

To give an historical example, Japan during WW2, and specifically Yamamoto loved their too clever by half cunning plans to win the war that were beyond their abilities to execute or coordinate; in particular iirc they loved to split the fleet and so on.

I think people see things like the breakthrough through the Ardennes in 1940 and the second attempt at it in 1944, and then the landings at Incheon and the flanking attacking through the Desert during Storm' and I think that's where the idea comes from, that there's one weird trick to win wars and professional generals hate it (Pearl Harbour didn't work out in the long run but maybe it belongs here). Because sometimes there is, but in pretty much all of the (successful) cases the side that pulled it off did so through a massive amount of expert planning, and thanks to having a strong hand to execute the plan.

I think Ukraine has the problem that being in the underdog position it has a lot less to use for executing such plans and a massive front on which it all has to be spread out on, with Known Unknowns like the Belarus border.

To be fair, the reasons that Incheon (over-extension by NK, unprotected supply lines, overconfidence in the defense of Seoul) and the Air Assault in Desert Storm (lack of air defense, aircraft for support, Iraq being a shitshow after the Iran War) worked isn't because they were solely 'super daring', but that they exploited weaknesses with newer technology and proper doctrine to work against an enemy that couldn't keep up. They are exceptional military achievements but all of them were thoroughly planned, prepared for and supported before the first ship landed or the first helicopter went up.

People get the popular myth of the super-competent leader who makes up a plan in two minutes and Sherlock's their way to complete victory, but military operations don't work like that. Especially larger ones like beachhead landings or flanking maneuvers. They get planned out well in advance, and even get war-gamed during exercises where they may never actually happen in real life but are still prepared for in case of a contingency.

On the ground, though, the calculus changes a lot. It's why the best plans are those that have clear stated goals (take and hold this area in order to block off a supply line) with as much intel as you can get, then gives freedom to the leaders on ground to work out the approach with what they have. 80% of strategic planning these days is logistics, the shooting stuff is decided at the squad level with what you have access to, even if that means strapping some grenades to a Sharper Image drone, flushing out an entrenched position and opening fire as soon as they pop cover.

J.A.B.C.
Jul 2, 2007

There's no need to rush to be an adult.



If they sold either the Kia Bongo or the Toyota Hilux in the States, I'd get one. Both of those trucks are unstoppable little freaks of engineering that I have spent too much time driving in my career.

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J.A.B.C.
Jul 2, 2007

There's no need to rush to be an adult.


Like, corruption is an issue everywhere that we need to address, and I have no doubt that Ukraine had some shady fucks in power leveraging their positions to make money and gently caress people over.

But 'corruption' isn't a reason to invade an independent nation, commit war crimes, call them all Nazis and try to eliminate their culture entirely. It's a false equivalence argument trying to give a pretext for Russia's many crimes in service of Putin's imperialist ambitions.

We can debate the scale of their corruption and what we should do to combat it, but that should come a distant place behind 'ensuring they exist as a country'.

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