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spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Ohtori Akio posted:

I rarely posted in the prior thread, but I have read it nearly constantly. Thanks to posters and moderation for creating the best-maintained stream of quality information on the war I've found.

Here's a question: what are some remaining elements of infrastructure that connect Russia and Europe? I am aware of TurkStream, is that the most significant item? I don't mean to ask speculative military questions, more to understand the leverage currently on the table for the various parties.
If you're asking about gas pipelines there's also Yamal through Belarus and Poland, Soyuz through Ukraine.

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spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Ohtori Akio posted:

More general than that, but yes thank you. Maybe it is just gas pipelines, if nothing else would have a comparable impact if interrupted or damaged.

I do believe the Baltic countries have their energy grids connected to Russia, but they're working on severing those links.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Bij dezen stel ik voor om de kolonisatie van de Oekraïne-draad voort te zetten in naam van alle broedervolkeren van de Lage Landen!

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






cinci zoo sniper posted:

It’s a bit more technical than that. Baltics did stop using Russian electricity half a year ago, but the networks themselves are connected to BRELL, and the network synchronisation (“current frequency”) is maintained within the context of the BRELL, rather than that of the national grids, the Baltic meta-grid, or the Nordpool (which is the sole electricity source for the time being). For Latvia specifically, the scheduled disconnection from BRELL is set for 2025, but we anticipate Russia possibly disconnecting us by force, and supposedly have the capacity to withstand that to some extent.

Ah interesting! Yeah frequency is hugely important, a number of years ago there was a dispute between Serbia and Kosovo (go figure) which destabilized the entire European energy grid, and the resulting frequency drop caused railway clocks to run slow and all kinds of issues.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






We've had this exact same discussion already and barring any new information I don't think we'll find out if Musk meddled or not.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Chalks posted:

In case anyone was wondering if pressure from right wing Russian war bloggers was going to force Russia to fix their problems and start being competent, check out this weird trick to make all your decisions universally praised

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580985029118685185

Would be nice to see Girkin behind bars, to get a taste of what's coming for him in The Hague.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Weird flex by Sweden imo.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1581186207580819456

Great news if true, he hasn't posted on his TG for a few days now so it might be true.

I really really hope the Ukrainians capture him.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Charlz Guybon posted:

Joining NATO means having to participate in these kinds of things, doesn't it?

No, while there of course is intel sharing and cooperation within NATO, intelligence and security services have always been kept a sovereign affair.

spankmeister fucked around with this message at 10:27 on Oct 15, 2022

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Next they'll be attacking from Transnistria. :allears:

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Feliday Melody posted:

As Swedish military, personnel. About Sweden not sharing intel with Germany. When Russia first started the invasion of Ukraine. Sweden responded by placing tanks on Gotland. German state TV then accused Sweden of provoking Russia. Declaring it was a threat to Moscow.

There isn't really such a thing as German State TV, it's public broadcasting. Russia has State TV.

I think this is a very important distinction and we should be careful with our language.

That being said, I agree that Germany's stance has been rather disappointing, especially at the
start of the war. They've since come around a great deal but there are still pro-Russia elements in German politics and media that are either claiming to be anti-war (left) or pro cheap gas and facism lol (far right)

spankmeister fucked around with this message at 18:57 on Oct 15, 2022

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Antigravitas posted:

There is, and it's DW. It is directly state funded.

Yes, but they're still independent and not state propaganda. Unlike something like RT.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






notwithoutmyanus posted:

Well, doesn't Israel have a lot of people doing Aaliyah (immigrating) from Russia to Israel to escape? Pretty much continually? Who then become Israeli citizens and thus influence Israeli opinion quite a bit?

Not saying it justifies such an odd statement either but I would assume it has some relevance.

Yes, the biggest chunk was in the late 80's and 90's IIRC but there are over a million Russians in Israel, a sizeable chunk of their population nowadays. So much so that there os Russian-language media and politicians run ads and billboards in Russian.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






If I were a gambling man, I would bet on this all being part of a messaging strategy from the Russians. Messaging designed to reinforce the idea of a joint Russian/Belarusian attack being prepared from Belarus, thereby tying down Ukrainian troops on Ukraine's northern borders, preventing them from reinforcing the offensive on the southwestern front.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Pretty incredible how OSINT Twitter is managing to adhere to media blackouts

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1581671085061251073

I think the Israeli diaspora minister making this statement instead of the minister of defense says something about why Israel was on the fence for so long.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Nenonen posted:

He's a minister from a minor party (Labor) in the caretaker government until the election. Currently Labor has seven seats in Knesset (out of 120), and Shai did not even go through in the last election. A caretaker government is not going to make huge shifts in foreign policy. However a politician preparing for elections next month can make huge shifts in outcomes if he thinks it might get him elected.

Israeli politics are really byzantine, I would be wary of drawing conclusions from a single tweet unless it was put into context by an Israel specialist.

You seem to be more knowledgeable about Israeli politics than I am, but don't you agree that it's significant for the minister of diaspora affairs to comment on this rather than say the minister of defense or foreign affairs?

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






There used to be even fewer Crimean Tatars, having been forcibly deported to Uzbekistan and other places by Stalin before WW2 even ended.

They were slowly coming back but that mostly stopped when Russia illegally annexed the region in 2014. The population never recovered and theirs numbers are dwindling even more now because of forced conscription, the extent of which will probably only be known if Ukraine retakes Crimea.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Perhaps he is commenting on the crystalline deposits that form over time in wine barrels.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Young Freud posted:

Maybe a series of balloons with high-tensile fishing wire. The fishing wire won't be seen easily through the camera on these things, especially at high speed.

Good news: The Shahed doesn't have a camera.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Fragrag posted:

Are these Iranian drones more akin to a V1 or a V2 rocket? At what point are we going to dust off the old Bofors gun and proximity fuse ammunition?

Neither but if you'd have to pick one it's more like a V1

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Man this opsec stuff sucks, I want to see some maps. :saddowns:

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Saladman posted:

But… there was major war in Europe in the 1990s that was on par with this one, and then more minor Kosovo related events in the 2000s, then Donbass in 2014. So that’s like not even a decade without war. I guess we had like 27 years (Dayton Accords - Russian official invasion of Ukraine) without any huge fighting, but unless you’re the youngest poster on Something Awful, then war in Europe within your living memory is definitely a thing pre-Feb 2022.

Yes, when Russia invaded in February there were many headlines saying something like "FIRST WAR ON EUROPEAN SOIL SINCE WW2".

I guess the balkans aren't Europe? :shrug:

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






FishBulbia posted:

The wars during the collapse of Yugoslavia were terribly violent and genocidal at times, but as I understand it they started to focus more on the small squad combat the characterized 21st century war, with a few major engagements/sieges as exceptions. 2014 was a different beast entirely, very small units fighting, sides struggling to mobilize official militaries and using a lot of paramilitary. 2022 was remarkable for scale.

I could be wrong about the Balkans, I know very little about those wars.

The breakup of Yugoslavia and the resulting conflicts are interesting and complex. If you're at all interested the BBC made an excellent documentary series in the 90's called "The Death of Yugoslavia". It was made before many of the major players were standing trial at the ICTY, so you'll see interviews with Milosevic, Mladic and Praljack (poison guy) among others. Quite surreal really. Conversely this also means there's nothing about the later conflict in Kosovo.

It's a six parter but it's here in full:

https://youtu.be/bVUg-VoPAeA

Or a playlist with the separate episodes:

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLdw7wnKe0wiUSNdugFGpnSfm6wt-9gvUt

Back to your regularly scheduled Ukraineposting. :)

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






slurm posted:

With Iranians on the ground in Ukraine now, why shouldn't the US strike drone factories/military bases/critical infrastructure inside Iran? It seems like they have none of the defenses Russia would (which is basically just the threat of nukes) and a campaign to just basically destroy power/water/transportation, petroleum infrastructure, and dehouse defense workers could be conducted with impunity with none of the concerns of invasion or occupation.

If anyone it should be Israel but still no

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






It feels dirty to say this but I hope McConnell can keep his grip on the GOP after the midterms

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






So the ISW ia claiming that the Russian evacuation of the west bank of the Dnipro is underway.

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1583626480935845890

Which makes me wonder if any or all of Russia'e posturing about blowing up the dam is just to cover their retreat. Like "let us leave without attacking us or we'll blow the dam" kind of situation.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






fatherboxx posted:

Belgorod is not in immediate (or future) danger of being the target of mechanized offensive, it is a complete waste of resources for short PR gains, which is par for the course for Prigozhin.

hmm, Prigozhinot Line

I liked "Imaginot line"

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Zwabu posted:

Or is there a more involved process of actually identifying the terrain features and roads and buildings in the photo?

It's this.

In other news:

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1584208593863471104

e: bit of a stretch to call this man a journalist.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






golden bubble posted:



Older HAWK air defense systems are probably coming to UA. It's old technology, the US military hasn't used HAWK anti-air for two decades.

If they can shoot down Shahed-136 then why not?

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Owling Howl posted:

Probably a car bomb in Mellitipol. What are we calling it - Insurgents? Rebels? Freedom fighters? I suppose the label doesn't matter that much.
https://twitter.com/Albina40028891/status/1584861173312208898?t=L88tIH-sneuuaodSSDRxiA&s=19

Partisans.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






And yet they couldn't help themselves from genociding. A little bit, as a treat.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Antigravitas posted:

They dug trenches in the Red loving Forest. That area is hot as hell below the surface. The zone is safe as long as you don't picnic in the moss, but digging is still very ill-advised.

Yeah it was this, IIRC there were aerial photos of their positions and some pictures released as well. Just the absolute stupidity is baffling.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Yeah here we go:

https://twitter.com/raging545/status/1511615423560749058

https://twitter.com/tpyxanews/status/1512067022129012742

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






MikeC posted:

Slight OT, I noticed that the quoted tweet has Prigozhin's name as Yevgeny Viktorovich. I understand that Viktorovich is the guy's father's name and is an informal version of Prigozhin's name? Why would a news agency use that instead of his formal last name?

It's a formal and generally respectful (but can sometimes be used sarcastically) way to address someone who demands respect but is also familiar. Often used to refer to superiors.

Putin is often called Vladimir Vladimirovich for example, dropping his surname. Everyone will know the speaker means Putin from the context.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Comstar posted:

What! How?? I thought that was out of range for Ukraine.

Sea drones.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






I suppose Maxar or someone else will release satellite imagery of the ships in due time.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Libluini posted:

There may be some extra AA coming soon: A recent scandal that started when Switzerland suddenly blocked Germany from sending anti-air ammunition we stupidly had bought from them got real spicy when Germany changed its tune to outright threaten the Swiss to never buy military goods from their MIC ever again if they don't stop blocking the shipments.

If the Swiss give in, that's tons of poo poo suddenly released from legal red tape for delivering to Ukraine.

Huh funny that, what would happen if all the EU countries would do the same to Germany?

Release the Leopards is what I'm saying.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






The prevention paradox but it's bombs instead of disease

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spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Tigey posted:

I'm often dubious about those intercepted calls. They often feel a bit too on the nose

They probably intercept a loooot of calls, and they post the most egregious ones.

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