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Tesseraction posted:Crimea is another part that I would have thought of (ironically) a bridge too far, but them crippling the Russian supply line from the Kerch Strait means it's actually becoming very possible. Doubly so if they can keep the Azov sea clear and launch naval support from the western mainland... Amusingly, they just launched a new corvette https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1576639771149205506
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Oct 11, 2022 21:00
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cinci zoo sniper posted:While I remain sceptical of the 90k number, given the history of veracity of “leaked true casualties” from Russia, I wonder how large is the AWOL/deserters group. I question the accuracy of their reporting mechanisms for this stuff even if the leak is real. There is a lot of evidence that commanders are reporting things going much better than they really are and this must extend to casualty reports.
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Oct 12, 2022 17:13
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khwarezm posted:Um, is this reliable? I feel like the Economist would be less inclined to take a pro-Russian stance if it could be avoided: Probably not, there were articles in Bloomberg last week about how the Russian economy has erased its surplus Everyone is doing analysis based on incomplete and sometimes fabricated data so predictions are all over the place
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Oct 13, 2022 10:00
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https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1580906178665582595 I'd love to know why Elon is determined to make himself look like an idiot baby here when apparently this isn't what's happening
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Oct 14, 2022 14:20
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In case anyone was wondering if pressure from right wing Russian war bloggers was going to force Russia to fix their problems and start being competent, check out this weird trick to make all your decisions universally praised https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580985029118685185
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Oct 14, 2022 19:26
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Interesting developments that could shed some light on the state of Russia's security aparatus https://twitter.com/balticjam/status/1580993234800869376 Also Russia are unlikely to be repeating Monday's 80 missile bombardment because they are almost out of missiles https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1580930099947659264 When they try a more restrained approach, however: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1580997289778507777
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Oct 14, 2022 20:24
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Phlegmish posted:Thanks! I think Def Mon has a bit of a pro-Ukrainian bias, but his reports have been reliable in the past. I certainly hope the Ukrainians are indeed about to launch a successful offensive. Although he's very pro-Ukrainian in his editorialising he is very strict about his daily updates, only reporting progress on either side with verified geolocated evidence. This has both pros and cons, as he's often the last to properly recognise captured territory during rapid offensives such as Kharkiv, but his maps are always reliable even when they're a bit behind.
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Oct 15, 2022 19:24
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Alan Smithee posted:I can't tell if he's being sarcastic in a "take my ball and go home" kind of way which means yeah probably he is The guy's got more than $200 billion personal wealth and they claim Starlink is costing $100 million a year. He could literally cover the cost for the next 2000 years out of his own pocket. I really wish he would shut the gently caress up.
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Oct 15, 2022 19:29
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https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1581585226710470656 About time. I wonder what sort of support this will be - Israel has a lot of missile defence systems and it would be poetic if these Iranian drones were completely neutralised by this
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Oct 16, 2022 12:45
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Kraftwerk posted:I don’t get why Iran gets to supply top of the line missiles to Russia to attack civilian targets with but Ukraine constantly gets denied the weapons it needs to swiftly end this war because of some weird “oh no we mustn’t escalate or cross a red line”. The reason these weapons are held back isn't out of some sense of parity. It's in order to prevent Russia from taking certain escalatory actions that the west really wants to prevent and its not just the "we're worried that Russia will escalate if we do X" side of things that's stated as the official reason, but also because this poo poo cuts both ways. Russia knows that the west is holding back ATACMS, aircraft, tanks etc and they know Ukrainian forces aren't going to cross the border into Russia proper at the behest of the west, but they know all that stuff is theoretically possible and being held over them to prevent them from doing anything insane. Not arguing that more shouldn't be being done, but there are clear reasons to boil the frog. Also, lets not overstate the significance of this. Russia has always had long range strike capabilities. Sure, now after they've performed over 2000 strikes against Ukraine they're running low, but lets not pretend that Russia getting these will change things dramatically. Chalks fucked around with this message at 18:16 on Oct 16, 2022 |
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Oct 16, 2022 18:12
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OddObserver posted:What escalatory actions. Name them. Besides the obvious, after the pipeline strikes people have wondered about the potential for more significant Russian attacks against western infrastructure or other covert actions against European nations, for example. Prior to their recent indiscriminate attacks against civilian infrastructure Ukraine had received minimal anti-air from the west, now they'll be getting a lot more. It's not clear if Russia has any competent strategists left, but if you were one and you looked at the effect of this recent strike the obvious conclusion would be that it was a really bad move. "Don't do poo poo like that again" might be your advice. You want every decision being viewed through that lens - what might the west do in response to this? Having many cards left to play is a good thing.
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Oct 16, 2022 18:29
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Something might be happening in the Kherson direction https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1581646788162772994 https://twitter.com/SlavaUk30722777/status/1581485643359653889 https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1581736539335585794 If this is real, the first reliable details about it will probably be from Russian sources once OSINT people verify things in a day or so Chalks fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Oct 16, 2022 |
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Oct 16, 2022 21:17
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spankmeister posted:Pretty incredible how OSINT Twitter is managing to adhere to media blackouts I think in general the sort of people who value having a reputation for accuracy will value adhering to this sort of thing too. I'm sure there are a bunch of accounts out there posting stuff, but it'll be in amongst unverified rumours and fake news, and without the people putting in the work to verify it, it'll all be noise.
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Oct 16, 2022 21:38
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Herstory Begins Now posted:The responsible osint accounts are pretty much all working with primarily russian reporting/social media posts and to a lesser extent third party tools and data. most don't really touch Ukraine-posted information until it's decidedly after the fact (eg soldiers raising a flag over an area). ukraine has been very effectively blacked out for months and months now. It's pretty extraordinary just how little footage and poo poo gets out. Yes I know that that is despite what it seems like. The vast majority of what is coming out comes out via official channels and what doesn't for some curious reason almost always comes out 3-10 days after the fact. I think the fact that Russians are so propaganda heavy also really helps Ukraine's information blackouts. It'd probably be much less effective if Russian sources weren't constantly lying, but as it stands it takes a lot of effort from pro Ukrainian OSINT to work out what's real. Pro-Russian accounts might want to break the blackout but none of them value accuracy so they play right into Ukrainian hands on things like this. FishBulbia posted:It's also pretty silly. The black out is meant for journalists on the ground and local civilians. It's not like OSINT speculation could actually do anything but speculate then... This is a strange thing to say. OSINT are constantly doing things like accurately geolocating footage and verifying rumours. This sort of information is far more dangerous than news reports which are far more delayed and vague in comparison.
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Oct 16, 2022 21:52
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FishBulbia posted:A minority of OSINT accounts are doing OSINT. What footage are they going to geolocate if it never gets shot? Totally, but assuming we don't have 100% mind control over everyone with the ability record footage, what you end up with is a sea of rumours and unclear footage claiming to be taken in some vague location. OSINT turns that into detailed information about what is happening where, and it's a big distributed effort that can't be easily reproduced if those people stop doing it for a short time.
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Oct 16, 2022 22:00
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Herstory Begins Now posted:the concern isn't that pro-ukraine osint will geolocate ukrainian stuff, it's that russians will geolocate poo poo ukrainians post... It's also that when Russians are posting loads of confused and contradictory stuff, it'd be really useful to the Russians if there were people sifting through that data to create an accurate picture. Pro-Russian accounts only seem to be interested in amplifying propaganda and Russian success, so they're pretty bad at this
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Oct 16, 2022 22:13
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https://twitter.com/jonnytickle/status/1582003056446930945 Mobilisation has been chaos so I guess it makes sense that the end of it would be just as stupid. Presumably this is just the end of the first wave - but it could also be the Kremlin buckling under the threat of civil disorder and the economic impact.
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Oct 17, 2022 16:14
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There have also been a few instances of drones going down over the water and being retrieved in fairly good condition
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Oct 18, 2022 20:18
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More talk of a Kherson evacuation https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1582429121548017664 https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1582428031490043904
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Oct 18, 2022 21:47
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mutata posted:So the suspicion is that Russia is going to blow the dam and/or bomb Kherson, blame it on Ukraine, and then use that as an escalation excuse to declare martial law and conscript more Russians? I'm not sure if anyone is expecting that they'll actually blow up the dam, more that they're using it as an excuse to pretend it's not a military defeat. Blowing up the dam would gently caress the Russians on the east side of the river far more than the Ukrainians: https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1582429514289643520
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Oct 18, 2022 21:58
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https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1582477140238696448 It's fine, Kherson was just a feint
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Oct 18, 2022 22:04
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Phlegmish posted:With all this talk of Kherson, it makes me wonder if the Russians know something we don't. As far as I know, everything's been quiet on that front lately. True, the Ukrainians were talking about a media blackout, but I feel like we would have heard something from the other side by now. It's possible it's just that Ukraine is massing forces ready for a major attack and they know they can't withstand it. Would be pretty funny if an attack on the Kherson front is just a bluff to cover for an attack elsewhere, and the Russians end up retreating anyway
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Oct 18, 2022 22:07
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OddObserver posted:Also there was that weird statement from some unnamed Western officials last week about how it may be liberated this week that caused the same reaction for me. If anything the news we hear are good for Russians --- they built that barge bridge near Antonivsky bridge, and Crimea bridge seems to be at least somewhat functional for rail... The situation west of the river was already very bad for Russia before the strike against the Crimean bridge. That bridge is down to 20% capacity or lower which is very bad news for the entire southern front and could be fatal for the already precarious Kherson area. Given this recent talk by Russia, I wonder if the barge bridge has been left in place by Ukraine to give the Russians a route to retreat through. Ukraine is very capable of hitting the area with HIMARS when the retreat is attempted, and giving them the opportunity to escape and hitting them on the run is exactly what they did at Lyman too.
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Oct 18, 2022 22:48
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If Ukraine can advance beyond Mylove the Russians west of the river are in big trouble so progress here fits with their retreat plans. Seems pretty likely. More evidence (lol) https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1582825469594193921 The Geroman twitter user has a history of posting about large Ukrainian assaults being repelled when they were actually successful in all of the previous offensives. We'll see if the pattern holds. Chalks fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Oct 19, 2022 |
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Oct 19, 2022 21:06
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MechanicalTomPetty posted:It's probably really good news for Kherson though, basically walking into a relatively intact city without much fuss would still be a huge win for Ukraine. It also depends how much heavy equipment they're able to evacuate with their troops. The biggest impact of these routs is the equipment loss rather than the troop casualties, so if Ukraine can capture a similar amount of equipment in exchange for next to zero losses on either side it would be very good, especially if you consider that most of the remaining troops are fresh conscripts anyway. They would be very easy to replace.
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Oct 22, 2022 20:09
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In case anyone was confused about those concrete barriers being built to defend against Ukrainian advances, they've been geolocated to inside Russia. 100% grift and propaganda. https://mobile.twitter.com/john_marquee/status/1583945213462032384
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Oct 23, 2022 11:32
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A Russian SU30 has crashed in Irkutsk (Russia) in a residential area burning houses, we don't know anything about casualties at this pointhttps://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1584135268533039105
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Oct 23, 2022 12:00
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Some blurry footage clearly showing the crash as it happened https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1584139536057401344 silhouetted aircraft hitting the groundI really wonder if these two crashes are just random coincidence or if this is symptomatic of Russia's airforce being pushed to breaking point without proper repairs/training/pilot rest.
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Oct 23, 2022 12:17
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TheRat posted:Building defensive structures next to the armed forces of your enemy seems like a fairly decent idea though? I'm sure Russia is fairly certain that Ukraine isn't going to try to cross the border with ground forces, they've been taking advantage of this by pouring reinforcements into captured territory and mostly ignoring the international borders. These concrete triangles are pretty useless too, and it's not like Russia doesn't know how to build effective defences. They've made pretty decent defensive structures along the actual front lines. It's just theatre, probably trying to increase support for the war by pretending that Russia proper is in actual danger? But without putting in any real effort, just pushing some concrete traffic cones around and taking some propaganda photos.
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Oct 23, 2022 12:47
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Zwabu posted:How does this geolocation work? Is it just metadata contained within the digital photos that's stripped out? Or is there a more involved process of actually identifying the terrain features and roads and buildings in the photo? I'm not sure about this instance but it's usually a process of identifying it based on terrain features, starting with some general idea of the location. You often get specific geographic feature proof being posted like this: https://twitter.com/PauliusZaleckas/status/1583469376308535296 The twitter account @GeoConfirmed has a website that maps all geolocated footage on the battlefield along with the proof of location.
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Oct 23, 2022 17:37
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Looks like there’s a complete Internet connectivity blackout in Kherson since yesterday. Makes sense that they'd want to make it hard for civilians to report on their positions as they retreat. Also this seems like something they'd do close to the start of their proper withdrawal since people will find workarounds pretty quickly. Could see some tangible gains from this withdrawal next week perhaps? Other reports and confirmations of this outage: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1584191294808936448 https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1584137204481216515
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Oct 23, 2022 19:11
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/a_burakova/status/1584459923433615360 So perhaps he was saying extreme things in order to bait someone else, then they hosed up and forgot to cut those bits before the broadcast?
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Oct 24, 2022 11:03
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These explanations for what happened look better by the minute.
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Things have been pretty quiet recently and with winter on the horizon things might slow down a lot. However, there are some rumours of a breakthrough near Svatove on pro RU channels today: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1585927104562335745 https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1585949955843182592 Could be some of Ukraine's last efforts before the bad weather sets in
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Oct 28, 2022 13:57
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The second tweet that talked about a more extensive breakthrough has since been deleted. This seems a lot less reliable now
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Oct 28, 2022 14:24
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Kraftwerk posted:How are Ukrainian drones attacking these ships. Are those naval drones basically suicide drones like those Japanese midget submarines? The term "suicide drone" makes as much sense as calling cruise missiles "suicide rockets". It's such a strange term for a munition that hits a target and detonates as intended. In this case it's basically a very long range torpedo with advanced navigation. Sure, they travel on the surface of the water, but I bet they're trying to develop subsurface ones.
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Oct 29, 2022 20:20
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Dick Ripple posted:While I understand Russia blaming every failure of theirs on NATO and its members instead of Ukraine, but how likely or able are some of these Sea/Air unmanned vehicles actually being operated by someone outside of Ukraine? We know it can be done from half way around they world with US and its Predator operators and at this point since Ukraine has been supplied with so much Western equipment there will not be any smoking gun for Russia to take pictures of and say so and so is directly responsible. Is Russia or anyone else for that matter able to figure out from where drones are being operated from? I'm not sure why you'd need to. These sorts of operations will be easiest to perform locally and obviously it's better politically. Theoretically you could have a local team that sets up and deploys the drones then hands control over to someone on the other side of the planet to pilot but it seems worse in every way.
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Oct 31, 2022 09:45
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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1586996489150152704 Ukraine is getting close to a 90% intercept rate for these missile strikes. As more anti-air arrives and low stocks cause the strikes to shrink it looks like they could reach 100%.
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Oct 31, 2022 11:50
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OddObserver posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1587125065740685316 https://twitter.com/pauluni17/status/1587092328057114624 Looks like Russia's impotence in the Black Sea is pretty clear now
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Oct 31, 2022 21:30
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They probably all got mobilised and sent to the front
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Oct 31, 2022 23:14
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KitConstantine posted:I would say that's exactly why, which Turkey demonstrated by releasing a bunch of grain ships Russia was holding up under the deal for 'inspections' Do we know if Russia is going to be able to jump right back in to sabotaging the grain shipments like this now they're agreeing to the deal again? Also, what exactly does Russia get by delaying the grain shipments? The west stopped caring about the shipments once the deal was signed, so doing this has all the down sides but without any of the leverage?
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Nov 2, 2022 15:09
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