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With the seasons changing, does it look like the war is also gonna change while it’s cold/muddy/snowy(?). I remember there being images of Russian vehicles getting bogged down in mud. Is that a consideration for advancing Ukrainians in the coming months? Similarly, is this going to be an issue when things get really cold? Images of Napoleon and the Wehrmacht come to mind but that was Moscow and this is southern/eastern Ukraine, not to mention shorter supply lines for Ukraine. In short: will winter slow ukraines advance by a large amount?
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Oct 13, 2022 21:05
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| # ¿ May 13, 2024 08:56 |
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“Through the year” meaning 2023?
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Oct 20, 2022 21:02
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Buckwheat Sings posted:Like literal decades of built up assumed physical power. Gone. There was some dumb infographic channel or something on YouTube that I used to listen to in the background and I remember they did something about “Who would win, Russia or the US?!” and holy moly were all these estimates off the mark. Guess you really can’t blame them. So much institutional rot and corruption and all the other things Perun has lectured on.
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Oct 23, 2022 05:59
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Is it off topic to ask how Finland/Swedens NATO integration is going? Is Hungary still holding things up in a feint to look strong for the domestic audience, and Turkey still requesting extradited Kurds? Is that a serious demand or do they just want some sort of kickback before pulling the support lever?
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Nov 30, 2022 00:24
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DTurtle posted:That's the time scale I've read about German and Polish deliveries as well. US are slower. According to the Guardian, in total roughly 300 Western tanks are expected to be delivered in the first tranche. Okay so since someone totaled it up, here’s a q because I’m HOI4-poisoned. Is that a lot of tanks in this scenario? Tanks are harder to visualize, and I figure not every tank is doing some sort of hollywoodesque front line charge thing. But I really have no idea what this how this number compares to what Ukraine needs. And then next, is this that “floodgate opening” moment where now that a few tanks have been sent out, now it’s psychologically/politically easier to send out more? Thanks all.
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Jan 26, 2023 18:46
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Something this thread talks about from time to time (as well as Perun) is about escalation and boiling the metaphorical frog, like how NATO et al just couldn’t send dozens of tanks off the bat because it might make Russia jittery and how Russia has all these red lines. How does gently turning up the heat work with Russia (or I guess any nuclear adversary) when it comes to proxy wars? Do you experts in charge of these kind of things take time to figure out which red lines are bluster, which ones might provoke, etc? On one hand it seems like Russia has a lot of boundaries they never really acted on when crossed, but were those actual “trigger points” at one time early on that had to be avoided or what? I figure this sort of thing has existed since forever and there’s a lot of good examples of countries defeating an adversary after slowly boiling the frog, vs counties that played too quickly and got squished for it? The whole thing is pretty interesting to me and I’d like to learn more about diplomacy psychology, preferably in YouTube form so I could listen.
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Feb 14, 2023 21:37
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://bipr.jhu.edu/events/4695-Johns-Hopkins-SAIS-Global-Risk-Conference---Russia-and-the-West-All-Bridges-Burn.cfm Are recordings of this posted on YouTube or something afterwards?
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Feb 16, 2023 17:55
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Nenonen posted:And Turkey has resumed negotiations with Finnish and Swedish envoys despite previous objections to Kurd-supporting, Koran-burning Swedes. Finnish FM speculates that the earthquakes changed Turkey's mood. Do you have a source for this? This is surprisingly good news. I thought Sweden was dead in the water as far as NATO membership went after the Koran burning thing.
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Feb 22, 2023 19:12
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Phone posting so apologize if this doesn’t link properly https://youtu.be/xmtqXovLhv4 Anders Puck Nielsen (who appears to be a thread favorite) had a guest on who’s an anti-war Russian politician living in Israel for sake of his own freedom/safety. Regulars here probably won’t find too much new here. The guy has his own fairly successful YT channel with English subtitles for western viewers. What did y’all think about the interview and Maxim?
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Mar 4, 2023 04:11
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:One thing this conflict has made me realize is that Americans seem to fundamentally not understand what makes Russia tick (people keep mentioning things like the "popular will" in Russia as if it matters) So, as one of those kinda ignorant Americans, I want to ask you how does Russia work? Not meaning to throw you into the spotlight here, but I guess my “Russia Watching” began on the day of the invasion and has been pretty involved, but probably still missing a lot? The only thing I’ve really understood (or misunderstood) is that Putin gets his information from people who are motivated (by career and health) to provide that news to him in a very slanted light. And then everyone underneath Putin is interested in keeping the status quo for sake of their own necks and interests because Putin’s disposal means this careful division of power, stability, and favors vanishes the moment his heart stops. And then as far as the military goes, that whole culture of lying and offloading responsibility that Perun talks about results in boneheaded battlefield decisions. Oh and the citizens just kinda exist and don’t really do anything because there’s this (now straining) social contract for them to stay out of politics in exchange for the state leaving them alone. And all this stuff seems completely irrational to outsiders but it makes perfect sense when you understand the rules the actors are constrained to? Is that how Russia Works in a nutshell or is there a lot more to it im missing? I always find these mutual misunderstandings throughout history really interesting, and I’d like to understand Russia as this is happening, but all I really know about is is from this thread and a half dozen recommended YouTubers/YouTube lectures mentioned here.
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Mar 28, 2023 20:46
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Genuine question: when did “the Ukraine” become a problematic phrase? Thought it was like The Gambia, The Netherlands? Or was it something that was initially okay but then some pro Russian group/Russia itself turn into a term of dehumanization?
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Mar 30, 2023 02:33
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Storkrasch posted:After independence. "The Ukraine" refers to the Ukraine region of the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire, etc. The country itself is called Ukraine. It mirrors a similar process in Russian where в Украине makes it sound like Ukraine is a country, and на Украине makes it sound like a region. I guess it's not controversial for the Netherlands or the Gambia (or the United States of America) because nobody is trying to deny those countries their independence on that basis. Think e.g. "the south", "the midwest", "the donbass" vs "Canada" or "Mexico". cinci zoo sniper posted:It was never okay, and it’s a decades old thing dating back to Soviet Union. It’s a translation of a Russian language preposition twist implying that Ukraine is a peripheral territory of Russia, rather than a country. Thanks for the context!
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Mar 30, 2023 05:16
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e: never mind
buglord fucked around with this message at 19:31 on Mar 30, 2023 |
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Mar 30, 2023 19:19
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Fwiw that was a normal feedback post, not sure why you deleted it. I’m a timid poster lol, but also I thought it was redundant. Unrelated, fingers crossed Finland gets in. I hope the door isn’t shut forever for Sweden, though im curious if they are at the same level of danger Finland is is despite not sharing a land border with Russia.
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Mar 30, 2023 19:48
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Saladman posted:The Turkish vote on Finland joining NATO went through about an hour ago - just before midnight Ankara time! Unanimous support for their application. So, Finland is all set to join NATO now that it has unanimous formal approval from every country. Congrats Finland  Nenonen posted:It's a bit different for them but nothing drastic seems to be about to come. For the time being Russia has little leverage outside sabotage and hooliganism because everything is tied in Ukraine. Also, USA and UK gave security guarantees at the beginning of the process, so Sweden wouldn't be left alone and Russia knows this. Finally, Sweden's air force and navy were not defunded the same way that ground forces were, so there's not much of a likelihood of Russia trying to confront them in the Baltic Sea. So do security guarantees mean US soldiers, equipment, both, something else? And do these guarantees have a listed end date or just until the US cancels it? Sorry if this is out of bounds for the thread, I’ll stop if need be.
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Mar 31, 2023 00:17
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