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Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

WarpedLichen posted:

So is it normal to have a guy in high command have two prison stints? I guess it's stuff early in his career but it just seems so weird to have a a culture that glamorizes criminals.

Well it's the vibe the whole russian military is giving. Wagner recruiting in prisons, the whole existance of VDV, especially their behaviour during the VDV Day, etc. However I think that it's his recent efforts in Syria that got him promoted to the top spot currently.

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Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
https://twitter.com/Denys_Shmyhal/status/1580540354738388992

Huh, seems important.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I’m afraid this is the least important of the 3 European councils.

Yes, I am aware. However it's still one of the three, so they might inspire others.
Still, this wouldn't change much in Government to Government communication, while severely loving up life for people of the ground, so I'm not sure this would be a wise decision.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Orthanc6 posted:

This is kind of what I'm wondering, though I imagine military action against Belarus by someone not Ukraine is much less likely than Belarus attacking in the first place. That said, a strong response by other nations that does physically deter Belarus is needed, which is what I'm really wondering about.

I'd say this isn't Clancy, because Belarus is using the threat of invasion right now as a political tool, and we need to be able to discuss and asses possible reactions to that, whether they invade or not. It might be a low chance, but the odds get worse the more troops Belarus moves to the border.

I agree it would be a dumb move in that it is both very unlikely to succeed, and very likely to backfire. And I think Lukashenko knows both of those, but again, Russia made similar obvious errors starting this war in the first place.

Possible grey zone would be Poland sending in troops to help defend the Belarus border if they do invade. Russia will of course whine and escalate, but I don't think it's a good precedent to let them start a 2v1 war uncontested.

We already have troops reinforcing the Belarus border thanks to our stupid reply to Lukaszenkos migrant policies, where we send the Army to stop migrants put on buses by him from entering our courtry. So the reason is wrong on so many levels, but the troops are there.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Nenonen posted:

I mean if you want to destroy something it's about a million times more efficient to do it while you occupy the place, rather than shooting things at it from a distance. Hence earlier posts about whether they would leave critical infrastructure intact or not if they leave.

I mean but if you start the shelling when Ukraine army gets into town, you can kill two birds with one stone, destroy the city and hurt the army. It's a simple enough plan that both sides have thought of it I'm sure, but what happens now? Ukraine needs to send in some experts to de-mine the residential buildings and secure the town border. But then they risk artillery strikes on the city, making it actually more dangerous.

I guess they still go in, it's not like a lack of soldiers in a city has stopped Russia from bombing it to hell and back if last months' rocket strikes on Kiev are anything to go by. However with the river blocking the say, this could lead to a very ugly stalemate.

God I hope there's a breakthrough for Ukraine that allows them to secure the city before it's turned into rubble :ohdear:

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
Lend Lease was never in danger as most of the Reps are hardcore MIC promoters, as far as I understand.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Paladinus posted:

AP published a couple of photos of people tied to poles for allegedly collaborating with Russians.

:nms:, I guess, even though they do not appear to be injured.
https://i.imgur.com/Aqs3tbe.png

Judging by the zip ties, it wasn't mob justice, but part of the sweeps AFU are conducting against Russian saboteurs and marauders. Also not clear if they were left there as a punishment, or essentially handcuffed to be picked up later when it's time to bring all suspects in for questioning.

No, if this was mob justice, these guys would be tied a bit differently.

By the loving neck.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1592104889232285705

I don't think this was posted here, what a moment.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

TheRat posted:

There were plenty of videos of people tied up like this in early spring. Back then it was usually called mob justice for looting.

Yes but looting does tend to be vieved a bit less harshly then collaboration with the enemy.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
Also that peninsula the Ukrainian troops landed on yesterday is so loving swampy it makes Florida look like a rocky desert:


I mean it will be importand to hold that to control the Dniepr, but good loving luck moving any heavy machinery in the vicinity.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

cinci zoo sniper posted:

That or maybe engine fell off or some such, since a few hundred kg of metal falling on a normal barn for cows is still a mess.

Any Polish goons still awake for some weird reason - are there some serious domestic providing original reporting stating that two missile struck Polish soil?

The official statement is that there was "an explosion" and the president said on air "Without a doubt this was a rocket explosion. Our allies are also certain about this. However there seems to be no risk of further incidents like this". Didn't specify the country of origin of the rocket as "the experts are working"

I do not believe that Duda or Morawiecki will decide to go to war just now. They are doing everything they can to calm people down, even saying specifically that "selected units" of the military are on high alert, not the whole military. They will try to play this as calm as possible, this will not be the spark. NATO and especially the US need to see that we are not bloodthirsty, because then they might see us as reckless and that could hinder actual help to Ukraine. I know they know this. I am sure that lesser ministers and other PMs will try to say "yeah let's go and gently caress'em up", but the people who actually make that decision know better, and see the value we provide to Ukraine when we're not active combatants.

Besides, we've tried to go into defensive combat like this counting on "oh surely our allies will help" and we got gently caress all from the mighty British Empire and the French back in '39, I think we've learned our lesson.






Still - I did get a chill down my spine and hugged my kid a bit tighter when the news dropped. I technically could get drafted, but I believe it will not come to this. Not tonight.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Try to avoid posting entirely self-explanatory things, especially when they’re served with tweets that are mainly about domestic political bickering in the US.

Mark Milley's conference was broadcast in full on the second biggest 24h news channel here in Poland, so I wouldn't dismiss it as internal US politics. I found the whole thing very warmongery and scary tbh, I don't think the tv station people were ready for a "yeah for sure it was a russian provocation" but that's what they got.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Considering a proposition to build something to deliver in spring 2023 is quite far off, there are tons of things that can change until then. As it stands now it's a "thought and a prayer". However some parts of the article sound very fearmongery, uncharacteristic for Reuters. I doubt that the american arms stocks are "shrinking" significantly., they still got poo poo to spare.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

TheRat posted:

If an empty missile was shot down, isn't that by definition achieving the effects they want? The terror of having missiles fly over your cities + the wasted resources of shooting down empty missiles / possibly missing armed missiles in the process

This might also be a test to see if the missile couldn't get past the anti-air defece (of course it couldn't).

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
Yeah, that's a big thing nowadays. Blackouts create fog of war, civiliands in need and peril, disrupt supply chains, make making food harder/impossible and remove visual and audio noise to filter out, while also disprupting communications. In 2022 we are far more relying on electricity than ever before so even if that didn't inconvinience I dunno, WW2 Britain, this is a big as gently caress deal now.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
Less birds in the sky for Ukraine still means more space for Russian airships, no matter how much ground-based air defense they have. Also there is a lot of discussion about Ukraine having to keep operating within it's borders for the practical reason of "we are the reasonable side, we just want to survive", because this is the sole reason many NATO members supply the weapons in the first place.
As discussed before, as tragic as it is and as horrible it is to say, stopping saturation bombardment of Ukrainian civilians is not helping the Ukrainian Army achieve it's military goals of reclaiming pieces of their country. While it does have some impact, it doesn't warrant additional resources beyond what's already dedicated to it.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
I hear news of a lot of missiles going in the direction of Ukraine, air raid alarms across the whole country (excluding Crimea), early reports talk about around 120 long range missiles.
https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1599726691902816256

Ukraininans in other places online confirm this plus report blackouts.
It's just getting dark and the temperatures are next to 0 in this part of Europe... gently caress this will be a bad night.

Kikas fucked around with this message at 14:10 on Dec 5, 2022

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Willo567 posted:

I'm assuming today's strikes were already planned and not a result of the explosions at the Russian Air bases right

We've seen evidence of preparation last week didn't we? I recall seeing news about long range bombers being armed but this is the first attack since then, so I assumed they patiently waited for the word "go".

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Nenonen posted:

It's just so surprising if a Tu-141 really made it past all Russian defences and jamming, deep into Russian territory and to one of their most valuable strategic targets. This should be a situation where some general faces court martial for neglecting duties. Russians claimed that they actually shot it down, but what does it matter if the debris fell on their own bombers??

We just don't know what modifications Ukraine has been making to its systems during this time, probably better guidance that is less prone for jamming so it wouldn't end up in Croatia.

Comedy option: They have removed check for that specific missile model so that they don't jam their own stuff when they launch a Tu-141. Because they sure do have them.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

golden bubble posted:

So this is why a mere BMP was able to shove around a bunch of "anti tank obstacles". They were actually hollow shells filled with copium.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1600151315371347968

Who took this photo? Didn't they set them up somewhere further than the front? I don't doubt the credibility of Oryx out of all the sources, but this seems kinda suspicious, even though I'd like this to be Groverteeth and for the russian army to get hosed. Especially since they themselves claim that no Ukrainian tank has gotten close, did the infantry get there?

Also lol

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

queeb posted:

Here's the video if you want to see it. Note, it's a Russian supporting DPR politician getting bullseyed bye an artillery or rocket artillery round, though not not as horrible gory considering, it's kinda blocked by a car. But still, loving hell the accuracy.

Extremely NMS


:nms: :nms:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/zf8bdm

Bro you hit me like that in Worms Amageddon I'm calling hacks :stare:
Even from the very front line it is what, 150km at least? I know that they have practice but sheesh.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
On a second look - looks more like a car bomb. The lights go on for a second before detonation, so maybe it was primed to go as the doors unlock or something.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

mllaneza posted:

LOL, Pelosi introduced Zelenskiy as "The President of The Ukraine."

I'd assume it's a force of habit, since both "United States of America" and "Ukraine" start with U. And you would "Welcome the President of the United States of America". Same as "welcome The President of The Ukrainian Republic" if you wouldm like to be pedantic.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

nutri_void posted:

I'm pretty sure Ukraine is just Ukraine and not the Ukrainian Republic

I bet you're right, but since I've heard someone use "The Republic of Poland" I just assume that these mishaps happen.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:

I wonder if the countries that were being helped/liberated by the allies in WWII all had formal contracts with them.

Hi, since it's a thorn in my side - Poland had the spoken guarantee that in case if we got attacked France and UK would send help immideatly. We all know how it went out :argh:

Overall WW2 was the reason to create NATO and other solid alliances not based on marriage or other ties between rulers. With written agreements and contracts and whatnot. Precisely because we got screwed.



Oh yeah. We're currently in the part between "gently caress around" and "find out" when it comes to German diplomacy. I hope they won't block it, and we get a constant stream of Leo 2's send to the front. They might very well be the thing that's needed for some significant front changes.

...since what I've seen from playing War Thunder the Leo 2 is a loving murder machine :v:


Speaking of fronts, the combat is still happening but the movement of troops is pretty much frozen, isn't it? Even though Russia is making some advancements, they are not very significant. Or at least don't seem one.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Paladinus posted:

Azov have just gone through rebranding, as they are now officially the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/26/7386607/

Instead of the old controversial 'Nation's Idea', the new logo, although evocative of the old one, is just three lines



In their fiery promo video they use them to mean the roman number III and the letter Ш in the word 'Штурмова' (Assault).

That's a loving default Call of Duty game tag wtf

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
Holy poo poo I forgot that there was a period of anticipation for "Ooooh when will the F16s get delivered".

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Pretty sure Morawiecki has a Scholz dartboard in his office. Scholz last week: “stfu about planes”. Morawiecki today: “Poland is ready to give Ukraine its F-16 fighters, if NATO supports this decision”. https://zn.ua/ukr/WORLD/polshcha-hotova-peredati-ukrajini-f-16-ale-za-odnijeji-umovi-moravetskij.html

That said, this could also be simply callous populism, since it does not put pressure pressure on Poland to follow up, yet anyways.

Actually though, this is odd, I'm struggling to find a Polish source for this that isn't some insane right wing ramblings. And I can't read ukrainian so can't confirm the article.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

I cannot believe cinci zoo sniper is loving dead


cinci zoo sniper posted:

As TheRat says, Borrell had quite possibly the gaffe of his whole career in February 27. I seem to recall an even stupider tweet from him about “the planes are being delivered to Ukraine” or “crossing Ukrainian border” or some such, but that’s too much of a chore to look up, and the widely reported February 27 is bad enough on its own.

As for the original source, there’s a Facebook link at the start of the article.

...it's like he's still talking to me.


Ah, this conference has literally just happened. Lol at the poor sods standing in the snow and wind (Poland has gotten a few Amber Alerts of "lol wind good luck fuckers" today), but that would explain why the usual news outlets are still preparing the digest.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
Also wait, have to go back on that, but giving the F16 from Poland is a loving stupid idea. We have like 40 of those things are they are our entire air power. Giving them out would (:v:) air out our army completely.
So I'd guess despite him saying "if NATO allows us" he must have meant "if NATO orders us" because it makes no sense otherwise.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

spankmeister posted:

Wait I thought Serbia was the crazy one, what the gently caress is going on over there?

Is this your first experience with the Balkans?

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Rappaport posted:

It's this. Russia knows very well that doing anything even remotely near Biden would be catastrophic, and not even Vova is insane enough to want to intentionally trigger a potential nuclear war. Uh, apologies about Clancychat, but, you know, it seems to be Biden's fault in this case :argh:
I think we'd go to mundane and gritty direct NATO involvment first rather than the sexy and spectacular sun-dropping missiles.

Man, it's crazy it's been a year already. Rewind the clock back around 12 months, we'd have:

-unconfirmed information of assaults everywhere in Ukraine
-talks of the VDV getting slaughtered when dropping - also largely unconfirmed
-the miraculous survival of Zelensky
-lots and lots of Black Sea activity - I think that conflict froze like half a year ago
-the new migration crisis in Poland and surrounding areas

50% of the posters were sure that this war would be done by today - and that's including the ones that were optimistic. Goes to show war is unpredictable hell.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

I mean this is peak fart huffing, literally the Tankie narration, but repeated by the big boy. Still working on spheres of influence logic, still thinking that Ukraine has no autonomy in this setting, he is not showing any sigs of self-reflection.

Ah poo poo boys we're in for the long haul.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

oh hey, someone took that regional death map and added per-capita visualization like i wanted and oof

https://twitter.com/azamatistan/status/1630721273264484352/photo/1

That's a fairly high percentage from the Kalinigrad Oblast, I wasn't expecting this...

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Tevery Best posted:

It's not that. The Russians (and Ukrainians to a lesser extent) are using helicopters by flying into the air, pulling the nose up and firing a bunch of dumb rockets over parabolic arcs into enemy positions from beyond MANPADS range. It's not the most efficient way, but it is the safest.

So that is what, over 15-20km? That's basically an airborne Katyusha at this point, incredible.

On Bakhmut, there's an article (in Polish, paywalled so I reposted it here)with a bit more analysis of the meeting of Zelensky and the 2 generals, Załużny and Syryjski - out of these 2, Syryjski is the more interesting one: Currently he's the leader of the ground forces and, importantly, he has graduated from the Moscow Higher Military Command School - meaning he knows Russian style of warfare and the tactics used.

It's more of "let them fight and bleed themselves dry" but the reasoning is that Ukraine can hold on so long and inflict serious damage because of the military structure of Russia. There are 4 command centers fighting in this war, and they are all fighting on their own. The Eastern, Western, Central and Southern command are all separated and with their own leadership. The central one is the one fighting in Bakhmut, while the other ones are doing their own thing. And they won't help eachother out, since they all have their own piece of the land to worry about.
So by keeping one part of the russian forces occupied, they can actually inflict significant damage - it's not that Russians will just "throw more men", because they don't cooperate like that. Unfortunately, the central one is the one with Wagner so that's what we're seeing. And Bakhmut will fall eventually. But I don't think that Ukraininan leaders are huffing their own farts and counting on the Stalingrad 2.0 scenario, it's a cold calculation that fighting there is the best option. Even for the upoming counterattack after leaving the city.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Antigravitas posted:

I was under the impression that they were shooting basically from the edge of the envelope of the rockets, not like some artillery system. If they are doing beyond visual range, that's… kind of a waste of ammunition.

They are inaccurate as gently caress at that range, that much is certain. I can't find where I read it, but I am reasonably certain that shooting with a ballistic trajectory was a manoeuvre supported by the firing computer.

Of course I may be conflating the two. I haven't been watching too many videos of helicopters firing their rockets, but the ones I've seen weren't pitched up too high.

I know it is supported like that on some bombers and dumb munitions, haven't seen anything on helicopters and rockets.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
It was said upthread, this will not create an escalation. No weapons were fired, this was an "accident". It also might not have been an actual accident.

But this happens more then you'd think, if it's a deliberate takedown, this is not worrying.

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Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
Yeah we are gonna send like uh, 8 of those and they're probably falling apart. But hey, if they can fly and shoot down some Russian Migs, it's better for them to fall apart in Ukraine rather than in a polish hangar.

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