|
kemikalkadet posted:I was thinking about the brain-drain effect of mobilisation the other day. A russian aviation blogger I follow suddenly went silent after the mobilisation announcement and I was worried they'd got him. He went radio silent for almost a month after usually posting 2-3 times a week, then a few days ago posted a comment on one of his articles that he'd fled the country. He's an aircraft technician and repairs commercial jets for a living so a skilled job, I can only imagine skilled workers are fleeing across all sectors which is going to have all kinds of negative effects on their economy. Unfortunately the numbers are too small to make a dent in economy at the moment. It would require a significant collapse and complete open borders to trigger anything like the Venezuela brain drain - which, incidentally, might align with the course of the regime anyway, to be left only with oil and gas industry personnel, security for it and some dead weight, after which the assets may be safely sold and the founders cash out.
|
#
¿
Oct 12, 2022 10:49
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 12, 2024 17:33 |
|
|
Strelkov/Girkin has stopped posting few days ago, which is a pretty good reason to believe that legal threats to so-called "warcors" are real, at least in some wrist-slapping form.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 14, 2022 21:45
|
|
|
Feliday Melody posted:I always wondered what the deal was with Russia. Russia has vast amounts of land and natural resources, as well as people. Short answer is a combination of petrostate curse on top of being a massive land empire in decline producing a throughouly corrupt and parasitic on itself system
|
|
#
¿
Oct 15, 2022 10:18
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1581764695119171584 Interesting that Prigozhin himself decided to throw a bucket of cold water on the talk around his own main battle. The most logical explanation is that poo poo is actually tough for Wagner there, Prigozhin won't get his glorious victory anytime soon so he is revving up the narrative of shifting the blame to the army.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 16, 2022 23:06
|
|
|
Youth Decay posted:Isn't Zelenskyy himself an ethnic Russian, or at least from a Russian-speaking family? Just because someone is of a particular ethnic/cultural background doesn't mean they automatically support a particular country. He is Jewish and indeed was a primarily Russian speaker before his presidential run.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 17, 2022 07:24
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/litavrinm/status/1581939253826957312 There is also a regular autumn draft coming up and, more importantly, the draftees of last year are finishing service - which means they can be instantly mobilized.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 17, 2022 12:00
|
|
|
Russian fighter plane crashed into an apartment building in Yeisk, Krasnodar region https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1582034506089115649  burning building
fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 17:02 on Oct 17, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Oct 17, 2022 16:51
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/kolezev/status/1582235935822925824?t=fd-7jOL3H-lkM84v80wtyA&s=19 Regarding the shooting among Russian soldiers - turns out one of the shooters was not even a Russian citizen, but a migrant worker from Moscow who decided to make some "easy" money on war and enlisted. Kinda puts the declared mobilization pause in Moscow in context since mayor Sobyanin was a proponent of recruiting volunteers among migrants.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 18, 2022 08:08
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:Not sure where you pulled out this from. Misread the article, sorry, it is unclear how exactly the guy was enlisted PederP posted:Hit is not knocked out. Lots of media have been using an exaggerated and incorrect headline. Zelensky says destroyed https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1582285715970613248?t=QBWFWrCHB0s4CYS20tgkAg&s=19
|
|
#
¿
Oct 18, 2022 11:34
|
|
|
Saladman posted:So... is he trying to not-so-subtly signal that he is against the Russian regime, or is he a psychotic ultranationalist who seriously thinks that the entire world belongs to Russia, like the Nation of Islam thing where ancient Egypt and all other advanced ancient cultures were ruled by time-travelling African American Shabazzian space wizards? Russia was so starved for finding local administration in occupied Kherson so the best they could do was literally a village idiot mostly known for antivax "activism"
|
|
#
¿
Oct 18, 2022 13:22
|
|
|
Tuna-Fish posted:There's no way to tell from the outside. We'll know it's the second if this starts to become really common. So far, there's just two incidents. Oryx lists about a dozen of crashes due to non-combat causes https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html?m=1
|
|
#
¿
Oct 18, 2022 14:03
|
|
|
Dick Ripple posted:Has Putin ever said he is in command of the armed forces or something? Because I am not sure why people keep saying he is micro managing his generals. He did not have a history of doing so in past Russian conflicts. No, but previously there was no general designated as a public face of operation due to the permanent Kremlin fear of popular military figures. So, it all went to Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov. It is increasingly clear that Surovikin is a fall guy to take blame both for pointless terror strikes and the coming defeats.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 19, 2022 11:02
|
|
|
A big flaming stink posted:Their presence has been all but assured by the US's repeated hostility and attacks on their country. Oh, now it is Iran forcing their proxies to fight until the last Russian? The only thing Iran would ensure from involvement (aside from a push for Shahed sales before Israel deletes all the factories) is that angry Ukraine veterans would be in the first line of people to train whoever is in mood to shoot Iranians in the Middle East.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 21, 2022 10:15
|
|
|
cant cook creole bream posted:Wow, that guy. That ending was quite something. "Should Ukraine be on the map?" "Yes, because I don't want to live in the same country as some of those people." "So we will shoot them. *turns and stares at the camera*" He is a token gay person on RT, by the way, and a complete sociopath who was given way too many golden tickets in his media career.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 23, 2022 11:11
|
|
|
TheRat posted:Building defensive structures next to the armed forces of your enemy seems like a fairly decent idea though? Belgorod is not in immediate (or future) danger of being the target of mechanized offensive, it is a complete waste of resources for short PR gains, which is par for the course for Prigozhin. hmm, Prigozhinot Line
|
|
#
¿
Oct 23, 2022 12:44
|
|
|
The X-man cometh posted:He probably had the choice of becoming a Putin cheerleader or falling out of a window with his whole family. Ilya Yashin, an opposition politician, said that the deal issued for Krasovsky was either he becomes a propagandist or goes to prison for "assaulting" a paparazzi, where he would have been inevitably raped. Thing is, no one is forcing Krasovsky to go 200% in being a raging ghoul, he was hired to be a "respectable" face for propaganda (like some other ex-opposition people); his act is all about gaining favor of his equally bloodthirsty and monstrous boss, Margarita Simonyan.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 23, 2022 16:07
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1584434057177243648?t=Ej77XltHpNencG4t6JrZYA&s=19 Honestly, probably the absolute funniest possible successor choice: former liberal, one-time scientologist, process-brained cockroach that somehow survived overseeing the worst (so far) financial crisis in modern Russian history. The problem is he is elbow deep in blood due to overseeing occupational administrations and replacement would be someone who could plausibly sign a peace deal, so I don't know why Ukrainian intelligence points at him while Putin is alive and healthy.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 24, 2022 10:40
|
|
|
Athas posted:I understand why mercenary companies can be convenient and how Wagner has been a useful tool for Russian foreign policy. But when fighting full-fledged wars, as the invasion of Ukraine has turned into, are they really useful anymore? Prolonged warfare between modern nations seem to require large citizen armies, and I don't see how mercenary companies are a useful part of that calculus, unless they also function as foreign legions and thus increase the available manpower pool. I understand that Wagner is also a political player, but at this point in the war, is it really contributing anything useful in a military sense that the regular Russian forces couldn't do? Wagner seems to be the mechanism by which prisoners are recruited for the war, but it's not clear to me whether they show up in useful numbers, or whether the regular army couldn't just raise penal battalions as well. Check out this article that Russian independent media Meduza did this summer https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/07/14/a-mercenaries-war quote:Political squabbles and personal conflicts nearly cost Evgeny Prigozhin his prized position in Vladimir Putin’s circle of trust. Over the course of the war in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry has gradually erased the boundaries between mercenaries and the military. The armed forces essentially commandeered the recruiting network built by the Wagner Group (the private military company that Prigozhin finances) and largely excluded the organization itself from the initial invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The Russian army and other mercenary groups performed so poorly on the battlefield, however, that Moscow eventually called on Wagner’s regulars, restoring Prigozhin to the president’s good graces. The recruitment network (that Wagner used in prior years to offer dirty work for veterans of 2014) and training infrastructure were its most important assets prior to enlisting convicts into cannon fodder. At this point (and many thousands dead bodies later) it is mostly just a brand and ongoing PR campaign for Prigozhin - something that tries to project competence and professionalism in contrast to the sad state of Russian military. No one should forget how much of PR hound Prigozhin is (he is a troll factory man) and be careful about overstating Wagner capabilites. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 22:32 on Oct 26, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Oct 26, 2022 22:20
|
|
|
This was the funniest bit of that schizo rant https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1585644707283349506?t=NWAfa9leVbqJ0ZvvVsXQOg&s=19
|
|
#
¿
Oct 27, 2022 16:55
|
|
|
alex314 posted:Can anyone familiar with Russian laws explain how Uzbek men working in Russia got mobilization summons? Are double citizenship a norm when moving between CIS countries for work? The answer is probably "laws arent real" and if cops and draft officers really need their quotas fulfilled they would write whats needed in the papers and maybe bullshit the migrant worker with a volunteer offer.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 27, 2022 22:40
|
|
|
Ukrainians posted the drone footage from the night-morning attack on ships on Sevastopol https://twitter.com/mil_in_ua/status/1586351438216671232 I wonder if it is that surprise that Come Back Alive foundation promised a week or so ago
|
|
#
¿
Oct 29, 2022 15:11
|
|
|
General Lapin being sacked is very good because the precedent of a military commander getting the boot based on whining of a convicted robber (Prigozhin) and a local warlord the likes of which most of the brass spend their early-mid career fighting (Kadyrov) is going to hit the morale of leadership. No chance of revolt, obviously, but officers not willing to fight 100% for someone who despises them is a good sign for Ukraine (and Russian people as well).
|
|
#
¿
Oct 30, 2022 09:11
|
|
|
TheDeadlyShoe posted:Estimates I've read - many posted in this thread - say Russia still has thousands of long range missiles. They haven't run out, though they've likely already used the majority of their stockpiles - especially of the more advanced missiles. They can't really afford to to spend them that recklessly, because 1) with sanctions in place they are barely replacable; 2) there always needs to be a reserve for a clancychat scenario - it is not total war so Russia can't commit everything it has to this and leave its reserve units bare.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 31, 2022 12:48
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:apparently those two have a long-standing hatred of each other from what I've read from Russia commentator folks Yes, mostly Beglov regularly fucks up Prigozhin's real estate projects in St Petersburg and Prigozhin uses his media resources (mostly a network of Telegram blogs) to sink him without much success.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 1, 2022 14:54
|
|
|
MyMomSaysImKeen posted:Has there been any discussion regarding the possible hack on the Ukrainian c&c program Delta? Generally, security breaches of important enemy systems are better put to work under OPSEC instead of airing them through the account larping as the loving Joker
|
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2022 08:59
|
|
|
I'd second Paladinus regarding the calls - If you are a native speaker you can tell how a lot of them are way too "correctly" staged and dont sound natural. Then, NYT managed to verify a lot of those from spring - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/28/world/europe/russian-soldiers-phone-calls-ukraine.html
|
|
#
¿
Nov 5, 2022 21:12
|
|
|
Charlz Guybon posted:Ukraine reporting huge numbers of Russian casualties in recent days. Are the conscripts finally reaching the front in numbers? Yes, there was a report from Russian independent outlet yesterday that there was a massive strike on Makiivka. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1588998226652581888?t=KdV4hmdD-EBZs0ZzLuOLHA&s=19
|
|
#
¿
Nov 6, 2022 13:05
|
|
|
alex314 posted:Out of curiosity I've checked CSTO charter for that : DNR and LNR are now officially parts of Russia, as Russia wants you to believe that. CSTO is pretty much toast after its members left Armenia hanging, so I don't think we should be concerned with its charter.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 7, 2022 10:02
|
|
|
Rad Russian posted:I always was dumbfounded at how people in WW1 went into the trenches after seeing the previous 100K+ of their mates die there without doing anything beneficial. I always said, "I'd just refuse or hide or go to jail instead, what's up with going to certain death?" Well, apparently large groups of people are OK with that still, even now. Consider that mobiks are the people who bothered to answer the draft summons in the first place, which tells a lot already (unless they were ratted out by their employers if they work at state-owned businesses). It is very Russian to willingly get into the poo poo to the shoulder deep and then start loudly complaining that you are owed equipment, training and proper leadership.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 8, 2022 21:38
|
|
|
CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:I'd guess that the way the US midterms went, there's not much threat to US arms supplies to Ukraine now. Feels kinda like Putin gambled with a GOP wave election and lost Arm supplies were never in danger thanks to lend lease act granting authority to the President (and MIC lobbying power), it is financial/humanitarian aid that may be cut.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 9, 2022 09:23
|
|
|
The recent calculation from public budget figures on payments to the families of deceased soldiers showed 16k dead for Russia. That number is probably the floor. https://t.me/mozhemobyasnit/14009 Considering the widespread unspoken policy on being stingy with payments/keeping status as MIA as long as possible and presuming 1:3 or 1:4 killed to wounded ratio, real number of combined killed+wounded aligns closely with figures called by US (100k)
|
|
#
¿
Nov 10, 2022 17:39
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/yapparova_lilya/status/1591098000104771584?t=UsVCPs8VBhrXTXY-omRdzQ&s=19
|
|
#
¿
Nov 11, 2022 17:16
|
|
|
CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:What kind of diplomacy could Ukraine even do esp with a enemy that does not negotiate in good faith and clearly still wants to genocide the entire country? Ukraine successes should kick the war fatigue complaints from the allies down the road - they show results and pictures of happy liberated people should work on both politicians and ordinary people.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 14, 2022 09:46
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:Also let's say the Russian military gradually loses any kind of capability to hold Ukrainian territory and retreats to 1994 boundaries. What stops the Russians from just constantly firing missiles every few months to blow up infrastructure, rebuilding efforts and scare away western investors and contractors from ever building up Ukraine? If Russia doesn't stop after every Ukrainian territory is liberated, strikes into Russian territory would be necessary.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 15, 2022 18:08
|
|
|
Heliogabalos posted:Thanks for the replies. Securing fresh water for Crimea was nowhere in the declared goals of the invasion - even if we stick to the economic-expansionist reasoning to it (which I don't believe, I think it is purely a war for the sake of it with geopolitical goals in mind, i.e. flex in the face of the West) land route across the southern coast (Russia-Mariupol-Berdyansk-Melitopol-Crimea) is more important and Russia still controls it.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 17, 2022 09:22
|
|
|
As opposed to multiple times this year when it was confirmed that backchannels exist and work as intended. Jeet Heer and other people who were traumatized from watching Dr Strangelove should stick to american internal politics
|
|
#
¿
Nov 17, 2022 10:01
|
|
|
Hamelekim posted:It didn't work when it mattered. If it only works 80% of the time then it could fail at the worst time and lead to a catastrophic war. I think the government should be looking into what happened and whether or not it even can be fixed. This situation showed that people who matter and make decisions have better judgement and patience than twitter users
|
|
#
¿
Nov 17, 2022 10:27
|
|
|
pseudorandom name posted:Valve isn't accepting Russian currency or paying Russian developers, right? Yes, the easiest way is buying Kazachstan tenge through a third party online wallet and then transferring it to a steam wallet where they convert to "steam roubles". Funnily, Epic Games Store is working as usual since they have always used third party agent to proceed payments - XSolla, which is an American company founded by Russians, but operates a Russian branch. Most major publishers stopped selling games on their own though, so the only way to get them is key resellers, where the price is usually 2x from regional prices that Russian gamers are accustomed to.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 24, 2022 07:09
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1596166594752909314?t=IYZfcuzM75h1ZoA4uOGHlw&s=19 Expected clown show
|
|
#
¿
Nov 25, 2022 17:10
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 12, 2024 17:33 |
|
|
Charliegrs posted:It's kind of wild how a war in 2022 fought by two conventional militaries (one of which was one of the biggest militaries in the world on paper) has so little in the way of use of aircraft. And most common kind of "aircraft" used are ones you can buy in a store. It is not surprising, precisely because both armies are pretty close in technological parity (soviet tech is the backbone for both) and strength and Russia failed to suppress air defense enough to use aviation freely like they did in Syria. Russian aircraft ARE better (Ukrainian pilot in an interview bemoaned how a generation difference made 1 to 1 engagements between fighters lopsided) but not that much to operate in UA airspace like they own it.
|
|
#
¿
Dec 1, 2022 10:20
|
|