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It would be pretty in character for Putin to have his corrupt system sell all the military equipment on the private market and then confiscate it to
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Oct 21, 2022 06:38
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Rigel posted:Even if there are enough you'd still want to pass it now to not have a financial hostage situation where the GOP demands some lovely domestic spending cuts as an offset in exchange for agreeing to Ukraine aid. Thats probably what the actual gameplan would be in the house if the GOP won. That is totally the game plan. They have been complaining about spending so much money to defend Ukraines borders, but not the Mexican border all summer. Most Republicans, and particularly the Senate have been supportive of Ukraine but I have no doubt that they and the House Republicans will want strings attached to any future aid packages if they happen to take house/senate control after the elections.
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Oct 21, 2022 06:40
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Yeah the GOP sure is set on making the world an even worse place for everyone who isn't white, Christian and wealthy, so that would fit their gameplan perfectly.
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Oct 21, 2022 06:54
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Rigel posted:Blowing the dam is not going to "force a negotiation" at all. In video game terms, this is just stupid button-mashing from someone who is losing and out of good options. It could be used as cover for retreating from Kherson (Those crazy Ukrainians did the unthinkable and blew the dam. Luckily we got our guys to safety just in time). It doesn't have to make sense they just need an excuse other than we can't hold this city.
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Oct 21, 2022 07:09
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I suspect they will fall back from Kherson, blow the dam, and use the flood to slow down any attack across the river. Putin of all people does not care about the agriculture output of Crimea or it's people. Hollywood movie material- The Ukrainians know it and send Force 10 and save the dam. T34's are used as stand ins which save the day.
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Oct 21, 2022 08:18
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I hope the dam stays intact. Destroying a dam is not nice.
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Oct 21, 2022 08:32
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I don't know why Iran being on Ukrainian soil makes me so angry. Bunch of loving poo poo stirrers.
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Oct 21, 2022 08:42
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Comstar posted:I suspect they will fall back from Kherson, blow the dam, and use the flood to slow down any attack across the river. Putin of all people does not care about the agriculture output of Crimea or it's people. Yeah it' been weird how they've bothered the last couple of days to evacuate people from Kherson (or at least pretend to). I don't doubt for a second the Russians don't have any moral problems with blowing it up. But I thought this will also stop the water supply to Crimea? Or is that just a small part of it? Because that's something they do care about for sure.
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Oct 21, 2022 08:59
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I would say if they blow the dam, that's them tacitly acknowledging they can't hold the south and at risk of clancychat, potentially Crimea.
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Oct 21, 2022 09:07
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It is diffilcult to say at this point on whether they will or will not, as the Russian regime has not exactly been making rational decisions as of late. Their media has been spouting out about how they should destroy all Ukrainian infrastructure and force them to freeze/capitulate this winter. Combine that with if they are indeed being routed, it would be probable for the command and political leaders to lash out and flip the proverbial board game.
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Oct 21, 2022 09:14
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:I don't know why Iran being on Ukrainian soil makes me so angry. Bunch of loving poo poo stirrers. Their presence has been all but assured by the US's repeated hostility and attacks on their country. Of course they're allying with our enemies! We unilaterally scuttled a nuclear deal with them and then sanctioned them for doing so! Not to mention assassinated a war hero, remember?
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Oct 21, 2022 09:19
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A big flaming stink posted:Their presence has been all but assured by the US's repeated hostility and attacks on their country. Poor Iran! Has no choice but support genocide, why Amerikka made them do it? 
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Oct 21, 2022 09:28
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Dastardly Iranians are fighting their stupid proxy war against the US to the last Russian instead of respecting spheres of influence!!! Iran sending Russia weapons is only prolonging the conflict and the suffering of the russian people before the inevitable defeat Russia needs to give up and be neutral and maybe then its sovereignty can be guaranteed by superpowers, instead of being a puppet of its Islamic masters You can flip the narrative 1:1 this rules Somaen fucked around with this message at 10:10 on Oct 21, 2022 |
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Oct 21, 2022 10:03
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A big flaming stink posted:Their presence has been all but assured by the US's repeated hostility and attacks on their country. I did not realize Ukraine did those things, nor that Iran's presence there is in any way hurting the USA as revenge of those things.
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Oct 21, 2022 10:10
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A big flaming stink posted:Their presence has been all but assured by the US's repeated hostility and attacks on their country. Oh, now it is Iran forcing their proxies to fight until the last Russian? The only thing Iran would ensure from involvement (aside from a push for Shahed sales before Israel deletes all the factories) is that angry Ukraine veterans would be in the first line of people to train whoever is in mood to shoot Iranians in the Middle East.
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Oct 21, 2022 10:15
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A big flaming stink posted:Their presence has been all but assured by the US's repeated hostility and attacks on their country. It's funny that you bring up the nuclear deal when it was Russia standing in the way of renewing the deal in March because it would have allowed Iranian oil back to global market, tanking the high prices and thus Russian war economy! Such a great ally, that Russia 
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Oct 21, 2022 10:20
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A big flaming stink posted:Their presence has been all but assured by the US's repeated hostility and attacks on their country. How do we get to "assured" here, because it doesn't sound like it
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Oct 21, 2022 10:35
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Russia has been one of the few countries to cooperate with Iran over the decades, so it is partially do not bite the hand that feeds and do anything to destroy the Great Satan.
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Oct 21, 2022 10:36
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Staluigi posted:How do we get to "assured" here, because it doesn't sound like it The USA was warned repeatedly, internally and externally, that scuttling the JCPOA would inevitably result in the Iranian reformers (who were proven wrong to trust the USA) losing control to the hardliners (who just got proven absolutely right). Anyone with two brain cells would conclude that, with rapprochement with the west decisively failed, Iran would turn to whichever nearby power that wasn't hostile to it. That was going to be Russia. This was completely inevitable and predictable years ago.
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Oct 21, 2022 11:43
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BoldFace posted:There have been warnings about Russia performing false flag attacks ever since this conflict reignited back in January-February, but have they actually implemented any so far? Well, there was a string of comedy episodes throughout January and February indeed. The big post-February 24 claims in the mood of “Russia is about to blow up ZNPP” have a mixed track record so far, uncertainties compounded further by dismal information availability. Deteriorata posted:It kills two power plants - the nuclear plant and the hydro plant in the dam. Plus Ukraine loses all the water for irrigation. ZNPP is keeping the lights on in quite a bit of the recently occupied territories. mrfart posted:Yeah it' been weird how they've bothered the last couple of days to evacuate people from Kherson (or at least pretend to). The flooding would hit the primary historical freshwater supply artery for Crimea, with unclear consequences. Edit:  https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1583330108395638784
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Oct 21, 2022 11:58
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BoldFace posted:There have been warnings about Russia performing false flag attacks ever since this conflict reignited back in January-February, but have they actually implemented any so far? The idea is that if we expose harebrained evil schemes that are under debate in Moscow, then they may choose not to do it. In their mind, these false flag operations probably require surprise and a few days or weeks of uncertainty and confusion of who did it while Russia confidently and loudly blames Ukraine. If we ruin the surprise and announce "yeah we totally know you are thinking about doing (evil thing), so if (evil thing) happens, we are just going to say its Russia", then maybe they'll just drop the plan.
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Oct 21, 2022 12:31
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If Ukraine were to blow it up tough, it would be a pretty sound tactical move by completely cutting off Russian troops on the west side of the Dnipro for some days (allowing the counter offensive assault in earnest), flooding a bunch of the Russian artillery positions and limiting fresh water for Crimea.
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Oct 21, 2022 12:50
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Rigel posted:The idea is that if we expose harebrained evil schemes that are under debate in Moscow, then they may choose not to do it. In their mind, these false flag operations probably require surprise and a few days or weeks of uncertainty and confusion of who did it while Russia confidently and loudly blames Ukraine. Which I am really glad to be seeing become more of the default stance in conversations and media. The previous status quo of giving them unearned benefit of doubt has been abused for way, way too long. Calling them on their bullshit seems like a much healthier response for the world.
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Oct 21, 2022 13:00
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Cable Guy posted:I'm interested in what the "Original Sin Problem" is... could you post more of the article if it goes into it please..? Going by Wikipedia, economic original sin is when a country has trouble making foreign bonds in its own currency. It's common to borrow with dollars, or with the creditor's currency, but unless you're the US/EU/Japan it's rare to borrow in the debtor's. What Russia's doing here makes it so that basically all their bonds right now are traded in roubles, even the ones that on paper say otherwise. The most obvious effect is that this allows their cash to connect to foreign markets (hence why it's sanction-evading), but there's a longer-term effect of making foreign clients more confident in trading roubles with each other; Russia then has a larger influence over the world economy than they otherwise would, and the value of roubles probably gets pumped a bit by clients wanting to make their holdings more valuable (Bitcoin is an example of this, just way more obvious). People that actually know economics can probably explain a lot more accurate/interesting conclusions than I can, though.
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Oct 21, 2022 13:37
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Wrong thread. Sorry.
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Oct 21, 2022 13:58
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Freezer posted:If Ukraine were to blow it up tough, it would be a pretty sound tactical move by completely cutting off Russian troops on the west side of the Dnipro for some days (allowing the counter offensive assault in earnest), flooding a bunch of the Russian artillery positions and limiting fresh water for Crimea. While contested Dnipro landing would suck for Ukraine the same as it has sucked for Russia’s bridgehead in Kherson, I think UAF would much rather prefer maintaining an open flank with clear navigation routes to RuAF positions, instead of having to send frogmen into a giant swamp made up of washed-out minefields and whatnot. Also, Kherson city would be severely flooded despite the brunt of flooding forecasted for the left bank of Dnipro.
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Oct 21, 2022 14:15
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https://mobile.twitter.com/ItsBorys/status/1583328933067763712
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Oct 21, 2022 14:50
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Good Dumplings posted:Going by Wikipedia, economic original sin is when a country has trouble making foreign bonds in its own currency. It's common to borrow with dollars, or with the creditor's currency, but unless you're the US/EU/Japan it's rare to borrow in the debtor's. But they're doing it retroactively, which is not something that is going to instill confidence towards Russia in the markets. If those bonds had been denominated in Rubles when they were originally issued, the (effective) interest rate would have been much higher. There is a reason that so many countries prefer to issue their debt in Euro and Dollar bonds. There is an advantage for buyer/lender and seller/borrower (if the seller has a steady income of foreign currency to remove any exchange risk) both - the downside is that both are now dependent on not being sanctioned by the US. That's a non-existent downside to most countries (and companies) - but in the case of Russia, it turned out to be a very real problem, mostly for the buyers. It used to be pretty normal to issue bonds in national currency - and it is still for countries that don't have a steady income of foreign currency (which is obviously not a problem for a petrostate). Also, a currency is not going to be more or less valuable by issuing bonds in it. It can easily lead to a downward pressure on the currency - a lot of the lenders are just going to immediately exchange the coupon payments to EUR / USD. It also requires the country to maintain confidence in their currency - if I am buying a Ruble bond, I need to trust they will not devalue. This doesn't give a country more influence on the world economy - on the contrary, it forces the country to maintain confidence it will not devalue, suffer rampant inflation or piss off the US. Just look at the UK for a recent example - when the markets didn't like Truss' economic policy, the interest rates soared immediately, forcing the UK to get in line with what the markets want. And that is very much a straightjacket in regards to domestic economic policy. This move is not doing anything good for Russia in the long or medium term. In the short term, they have no choice, because of the sanctions. After the war, if the same regime is still in charge, they will find that selling USD/Euro-bonds now comes with a hefty risk premium, and Ruble-bonds are going to have an interest rate that makes it prohibitive to issue them. Markets don't like risk - even without any post-war sanctions (which I expect will be a feature of any post-war scenario that doesn't involve Russian regime change) Russia is going to have all kinds of financial woes. Especially if China doesn't change their current trajectory towards an economic crash. TL;DR - the Ruble is going to be a dumpster-tier currency after this war and Russia will be paying massive risk premiums to borrow money.
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Oct 21, 2022 15:36
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Owling Howl posted:If Russia blows the Kahrkova dam for whatever reason it'll flood the east bank of the Dnipro and some of Kherson city. If they blow that dam how much will it narrow the river above it?
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Oct 21, 2022 16:09
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Why fly that low specifically right over the road, instead of right next to the road? Is it a radar thing, so that the helicopter will look like a car?
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Oct 21, 2022 16:34
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Cicero posted:Why fly that low specifically right over the road, instead of right next to the road? Is it a radar thing, so that the helicopter will look like a car? I’ll hazard a guess that telephone poles or other assorted tall things that helicopters don’t like* tend to hang out there, but those aren’t above the roads. *a helicopter’s natural state is crashing, and they will do everything in their power to achieve this act.
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Oct 21, 2022 16:36
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Cicero posted:Why fly that low specifically right over the road, instead of right next to the road? Is it a radar thing, so that the helicopter will look like a car? It makes navigation really easy and gives you a guaranteed path clear of trees, at least.
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Oct 21, 2022 16:37
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this war has had me thinking about what it is actually like to fight in a war, how much balls and determination it really takes to actually do things like this. it's odd growing up with the promise that there will never be another european war, never even considering it and then seeing this reality
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Oct 21, 2022 16:40
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Shibawanko posted:this war has had me thinking about what it is actually like to fight in a war, how much balls and determination it really takes to actually do things like this. it's odd growing up with the promise that there will never be another european war, never even considering it and then seeing this reality 99% of it is the most boring, mind crushing, tedious and frustrating poo poo you can possibly imagine. Even in Afghanistan, paper work was a thing. Gotta sign for your weapon, do preventative maintenance on your vehicle and so on and so on. Then there's the 1% where poo poo's blowing up and people are dying.
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Oct 21, 2022 17:18
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bird food bathtub posted:99% of it is the most boring, mind crushing, tedious and frustrating poo poo you can possibly imagine. Even in Afghanistan, paper work was a thing. Gotta sign for your weapon, do preventative maintenance on your vehicle and so on and so on. And as we've learned, if you don't impose all that mind-numbing paperwork, auditing, and bureaucracy, then apparently everything just gets loving stolen by supply officers and sold on the internet.
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Oct 21, 2022 17:22
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the holy poopacy posted:It makes navigation really easy and gives you a guaranteed path clear of trees, at least. Yeah, they've been doing this since 2014 to avoid AD in Donetsk. Which also led to one of the most terrible videos I've ever seen of an onboard on a helo that gets hit by a missile at like 60 feet off the ground. Just enough time to really scream.
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Oct 21, 2022 17:24
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Shibawanko posted:this war has had me thinking about what it is actually like to fight in a war, how much balls and determination it really takes to actually do things like this. it's odd growing up with the promise that there will never be another european war, never even considering it and then seeing this reality But… there was major war in Europe in the 1990s that was on par with this one, and then more minor Kosovo related events in the 2000s, then Donbass in 2014. So that’s like not even a decade without war. I guess we had like 27 years (Dayton Accords - Russian official invasion of Ukraine) without any huge fighting, but unless you’re the youngest poster on Something Awful, then war in Europe within your living memory is definitely a thing pre-Feb 2022.
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Oct 21, 2022 18:43
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Saladman posted:But… there was major war in Europe in the 1990s that was on par with this one, and then more minor Kosovo related events in the 2000s, then Donbass in 2014. So that’s like not even a decade without war. I guess we had like 27 years (Dayton Accords - Russian official invasion of Ukraine) without any huge fighting, but unless you’re the youngest poster on Something Awful, then war in Europe within your living memory is definitely a thing pre-Feb 2022. Yes, when Russia invaded in February there were many headlines saying something like "FIRST WAR ON EUROPEAN SOIL SINCE WW2". I guess the balkans aren't Europe? 
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Oct 21, 2022 18:59
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The wars during the collapse of Yugoslavia were terribly violent and genocidal at times, but as I understand it they started to focus more on the small squad combat the characterized 21st century war, with a few major engagements/sieges as exceptions. 2014 was a different beast entirely, very small units fighting, sides struggling to mobilize official militaries and using a lot of paramilitary. 2022 was remarkable for scale. I could be wrong about the Balkans, I know very little about those wars.
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Oct 21, 2022 19:00
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The 1990s Yugoslav Wars had a lot more civil war characteristics than the current war, though.
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Oct 21, 2022 19:01
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