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Tesseraction posted:It's still astounding to me that seven months later not only has Ukraine managed to hold on, they're actively pushing back to reclaim territory. Its also interesting to me that this fact does not seem to be widely known, at least not where I'm at. Ukraine recently came up in conversation, and the people I was with were very surprised to hear that the Russian army was doing very badly and getting pushed back. The general thought amongst people not following closely seems to be "well I hear Ukraine is doing OK so far, but they aren't going to win, and that is just too bad".
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Oct 11, 2022 20:47
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Tesseraction posted:There does seem to be a common wisdom that no matter how plucky lil' Ukraine is it cannot win against the Russian bear, which is what I originally thought when the invasion began in February. I think only by paying attention to the major beats do you start to pick up on just how poorly organised and equipped the Russian army are, which means that when Ukraine take back places in Donbas you don't just casually hear it in a news headline and think "oh okay, the tug of war continues" rather than realise how bad Russia have to be getting beaten back to lose where they have the most reinforcement and supply. People are going to be really confused when (I'll go ahead and say when, what the hell) Ukraine pushes Russia completely out. I think a lot of people are going to immediately go "wait, NATO convinced Russia to leave, right? Was there a peace negotiation? What did Russia get out of this to agree to leave?"
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Oct 11, 2022 20:55
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Feliday Melody posted:Is it a modern western thing where having been to prison once often ruins your life forever? Well, we aren't talking about being a middle manager or an average professional. Serving time in prison is going to be utterly disqualifying for serving as an army general in most modern western militaries. Its not like there's a shortage of qualified candidates for those very limited opportunities, and the best person for the job probably didn't spend time in jail.
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Oct 12, 2022 06:37
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KillHour posted:Apologies if this is getting too USPOL but aren't there literal laws against a private citizen trying to do diplomacy with a foreign country? I can't imagine the state department being amused with that kind of poo poo. The Logan Act. However, it is both constitutionally questionable and almost completely unused. Only two people have ever been indicted (one in 1802 and the other in 1852), neither were convicted. It mostly exists as something to threaten or scold people with.
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Oct 12, 2022 18:04
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Leperflesh posted:I'm guessing right now that digging trenches now is necessary because mud is coming and then frozen ground, so the Russian forces have a significant time limitation and maybe anticipate not having the opportunity for extensive trenchwork again until after the spring mud season is over. If they only have a matter of days to dig before autumn mud/freeze cycles start, and they want multiple parallel trenches, a straight line may be the first pass and then come back and add zigzags for the second trenchline if the weather permits? Thats a pretty good point, I hadn't thought of the possibility that digging trenches and ditches later might be difficult.
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Oct 12, 2022 20:27
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Added as I recognise all of those, despite still haven’t watched a single video of Perun. You really should. Perun is fantastic, he puts in a lot of effort to be as objective as possible (while admitting up front his bias in favor of Ukraine), everything is researched and well-reasoned, and he sprinkles in just enough of a light dusting of humor to keep it all interesting.
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Oct 12, 2022 20:33
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I simply don’t have time reserved for watching videos in my day. For instance, I haven’t watched a single YouTube video in the last 30 days. I can respect that. I just want to say that you should make sure that you really and truly don't have time to make time for Perun. Just for your own sake and your own enjoyment of a high-effort job done very, very well, you should let yourself see this if you can make time for it.
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Oct 13, 2022 03:44
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Orthanc6 posted:I haven't seen much reaction to these moves, I feel leaders should be speaking up more to deter this. Maybe there's just a lot going on, if anyone has recent statements from major players I'd like to see it. This "2nd shot at Kyiv" idea is not being taken seriously because it would be catastrophically stupid. It would go much worse now than it did back in February, now that Ukraine is better trained and armed. Everything of any value or significance sent down would be lit up by HIMARS.
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Oct 15, 2022 22:46
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Haystack posted:Ok, listening to this, it seems like Iran's cheap loitering munitions could post a significant threat to Ukraine. If kamikaze drones can destroy or use up Ukraine's air defense systems, then Russia can gain air superiority. I'm not sure if your attention faded out near the end (which is understandable since these videos are over an hour and dense), but we are sending systems that should be "good enough". We apparently have ground-based systems capable of firing NATO air to air missiles effectively from the ground, which would be nice since we have plenty of those missiles. (The west assumes they can defend their airspace from the air so they prioritized A2A defense over G2A. Being able to also fire those from the ground when necessary lets us give them something that can remain useful for a long time) Rigel fucked around with this message at 22:09 on Oct 16, 2022 |
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Oct 16, 2022 22:06
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You also have to consider that within the warzone both sides are having to fly dangerously low. Some of these "non-combat" losses might have been caused by having to fly at a ridiculously low altitude where just one simple mistake means you crash.
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Oct 18, 2022 14:09
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WarpedLichen posted:Lend-lease allows Biden to transfer military equipment but as far as I know Ukraine is also extremely dependent on foreign money to keep the lights on (ex: paying the soldiers). They haven't been getting cash from the usa. Our aid has been weapons and munitions, and we can keep "lending" it if congress won't let us give it away.
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Oct 19, 2022 01:21
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mobby_6kl posted:I hope they pass this because I really don't trust the republicans not to gently caress everything up, even if it does look like there are enough of them not on russian payroll now. Even if there are enough you'd still want to pass it now to not have a financial hostage situation where the GOP demands some lovely domestic spending cuts as an offset in exchange for agreeing to Ukraine aid. Thats probably what the actual gameplan would be in the house if the GOP won. buglord posted:“Through the year” meaning 2023? Yes. The intention here would be to make the next congress irrelevant wrt Ukraine.
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Oct 20, 2022 21:03
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J.A.B.C. posted:From what I understand, the dam also controls the water that Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant uses to cool. And given how Russia has targeted infrastructure, I could see them blowing the dam in order to gently caress over the power plant as a method to worsen the humanitarian situation and force a negotiation. Blowing the dam is not going to "force a negotiation" at all. In video game terms, this is just stupid button-mashing from someone who is losing and out of good options.
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Oct 21, 2022 04:05
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enigma74 posted:Uh...I have button mashed a few times and won the battle. Bad analogy. The point isn't that button mashing means victory is impossible. It is that you no longer have a viable strategy or plan or idea of how to win, so you start doing stuff without much thought hoping to randomly get very, very lucky.
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Oct 21, 2022 04:12
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BoldFace posted:There have been warnings about Russia performing false flag attacks ever since this conflict reignited back in January-February, but have they actually implemented any so far? The idea is that if we expose harebrained evil schemes that are under debate in Moscow, then they may choose not to do it. In their mind, these false flag operations probably require surprise and a few days or weeks of uncertainty and confusion of who did it while Russia confidently and loudly blames Ukraine. If we ruin the surprise and announce "yeah we totally know you are thinking about doing (evil thing), so if (evil thing) happens, we are just going to say its Russia", then maybe they'll just drop the plan.
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Oct 21, 2022 12:31
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bird food bathtub posted:99% of it is the most boring, mind crushing, tedious and frustrating poo poo you can possibly imagine. Even in Afghanistan, paper work was a thing. Gotta sign for your weapon, do preventative maintenance on your vehicle and so on and so on. And as we've learned, if you don't impose all that mind-numbing paperwork, auditing, and bureaucracy, then apparently everything just gets loving stolen by supply officers and sold on the internet.
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Oct 21, 2022 17:22
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Yeah, drones are going to be a lot more important in conflicts going forward, but I think some people might be over-learning lessons from this war. If you aren't in a situation where AA is ridiculously oppressive to the point where air superiority is impossible, you'd probably be relying on modern aircraft and helicopters a lot more.
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Oct 24, 2022 17:06
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Djarum posted:Say what you will about McConnell but he has his caucus under a pretty tight leash and carries a big enough stick that even when someone like McCarthy steps out of line he can shut them down pretty quickly. Also, aside from stupid assholes like Cruz who aren't liked and would never get the job, Senate Majority Leader is not a job any of the other reasonable alternatives really want. The speaker has more of an ability to be a bit of a firebrand in the house as long as they don't go too far, but the majority leader has to always keep 50+1 wanna-be future presidents in line, never gets credit for making that happen, and always gets the blame from activists whenever he fails. McConnell always gets support because if he quits, someone else has to take over.
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Oct 25, 2022 14:09
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Yes, they aren't as highly publicized, but generally the sanctions have hit both Russia and Belarus, with some Belarusian banks also cut off from SWIFT. The thought is that they are so closely tied together in all things outside military deployment, that any leeway allowed for Belarus would be exploited by Russia.
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Oct 27, 2022 14:06
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Zwabu posted:Thanks. So is it fair to say that any reluctance on the part of Belarus to commit actual troops to the invasion has less to do with fear of sanctions from the West, which are largely in place already, and more to do with fear of domestic political instability resulting from such a move? Lukashenko probably wants to, but the military in Belarus seems to have made it pretty clear that it would be an extremely bad idea to give them an order to invade Ukraine. There's some evidence that a failed military coup early on (downplayed and denied) had already been attempted.
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Oct 27, 2022 14:13
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mobby_6kl posted:Well yeah. I think he also already set up these think tanks, speeches, forums, etc long ago back when he thought Ukraine would be quickly conquered and he'd be facing whiney complaints from the West. This would have been his way to say "its done, get over it, the West doesn't restrain us or make the rules anymore". He's bluntly stated that this whole idea that we are in a post-war rules-based world where small nations decide their own destiny and wars of conquest are forbidden is not something that Russia ever signed off on at all, and if Russia takes a few Baltic states and China takes Taiwan, well too bad. Its stupidly out of step with the facts on the ground now that Russia's army is the process of just getting completely and utterly annihilated down to the very last useful well-trained soldier and Russia's humiliation as a former great power is at hand, but they already had the speeches and forums planned, and he can still hope for a miracle.
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Oct 27, 2022 14:59
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KitConstantine posted:And he's made the appeal to the third world explicit - loosely "it's Asia and Africa and South America that will be defining the world in the future and that's good." "Eurasia needs to be interconnected/integrated" "the west is trying to drive a wedge in Eurasia" "Eurasia should not be defined by it's western tip (Europe) that thinks it's better than everyone else" On a military level, this looks like nonsense. What the hell is the rest of the world going to do to help him in Ukraine? Almost nothing aside from maybe Iran's drones, absolutely nothing whatsoever, their fate is sealed there to whatever it ends up being. I think he's looking for help economically outside the war and after the war. He's realized by now if he didn't know before just how utterly dependent Russia was on the west for trade, capital, and support, and how utterly hosed he is now. He's probably wanting the rest of the world to be brave enough to break off from the west and either form their own economic block that doesn't need the west, or failing that then at least use their influence to convince the west to ease up on sanctions or something. That is not going to happen. Some nations might try to play both sides or say sympathetic things, but the western market is ridiculously dominant, no one else wants to risk being in Russia's position by helping them evade sanctions, not even China. Russia is just hosed now both militarily and economically, Putin is directly responsible, and he's trying to find a way out.
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Oct 27, 2022 16:50
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Yeah, its hard to know whats going on, but Ukraine is highly suspicious that Russia tried to set up some kind of trap by pulling out civilians and hiding a large number of forces inside homes, and they aren't going to just enthusiastically rush into that trap.
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Nov 6, 2022 16:30
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Kchama posted:That is what happened, yes. I refuse to believe this is accurate, that Russia literally ignored Ukraine, negotiated with the USA, and got the USA to say " ok yes, we will not attack you", and then Ukraine proceeds to attack after not being a part of the conversation at all. I mean, I know the Russian official line is that Ukraine is a puppet regime and its really the US making all the decisions and that there's no point to talking to the puppet, you should instead negotiate with the USA, etc. But privately they had to have known they needed to talk to Ukraine, right?
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Nov 10, 2022 23:53
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The Question IRL posted:Later the getaway driverbis not only charged with Burglary under JE, but also the murder of the three dead burglars. I think that was because the States law let any participant in a crime get charged with all offences carried out. So the Home Owner murdered the three burglars, but was protected under the Stand Your Ground/Home Invasion principle. But the getaway driver was eligible for their murders? From an American context, the only thing insane about this is that the Homeowner unnecessarily chased after the getaway driver trying to kill them after they fled. He is very lucky that he was unsuccessful because that would have been a crime even here and I suspect could have been charged with attempted murder. (shooting the guy who was trying to run back to the car might be controversial depending on the state) The getaway driver being charged with the deaths of his 3 fellow burglars under the felony murder rule is completely uncontroversial in at least most if not all states. There are some states that will even go so far as invoke the felony murder rule if you are arrested for driving drunk, are then specifically warned by the justice system during your punishment that you could be held responsible if you ever kill someone while driving drunk again, then you do drive drunk and kill someone. Rigel fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Nov 16, 2022 |
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Nov 16, 2022 00:00
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Speaking of videos, I finally got around to watching Perun's latest video on "how lies destroy armies", and it is a very good and entertaining hour. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz59GWeTIik
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Nov 20, 2022 07:30
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Rinkles posted:Is there any way the west can help with this non-militarily? Not really. However, Russia's ability to continue doing this is not unlimited, these cruise missiles are extremely expensive and Russia's ability to easily and quickly replace them given the sanctions is very doubtful. They have probably concluded that at this point there is no reason at all to save any cruise missile which is not needed for nuclear deterrence, so they are just throwing them all at Ukraine now. Its not like their military will be in any kind of shape to do much after this within the next decade, so its stupid to save them.
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Nov 23, 2022 17:31
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OddObserver posted:Also, EU and US could stop European and American companies doing business in Russia and paying taxes that help pay for this.... Thats pretty much already done, most of the last few evil holdouts like Koch Industries have surrendered and bailed out of Russia at this point. According to a list of shame maintained by Yale (last updated November 7), we are down to 25 American companies still refusing to at least pause their business in Russia, which is pretty good. https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain
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Nov 23, 2022 17:45
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Orthanc6 posted:By which time this could all be over, ideally with Putin being defenestrated multiple times. I thought Russia had buildings which were taller than 2 storey?
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Nov 25, 2022 01:57
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I mean, he probably could, because he currently is. Yeah, I've made this point several times when people say that Putin is not vulnerable to being removed, that he will stay in power no matter what happens, etc. The argument for that is pretty solid, but I always come back to "well that may all be true, but Putin does not ACT LIKE he's safe. He is acting as if he does not believe he can survive a defeat". Once you understand that, at least in Putin's mind, he thinks he is ruthlessly eliminated if he loses, well then everything else makes sense. Pointlessly throwing away 100's of thousands of lives and destroying the nation's future is something to worry about later if its his only chance and defeat means death.
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Nov 25, 2022 19:22
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To make a silly fantasy wargame analogy, this is like running out of boulders for your catapults, and having your... I dunno.... say ogres, pick up the catapults and throw them at the other side. That might cause a lot of damage, but then what?
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Nov 26, 2022 16:48
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I guess that this isn't Clancychat because its Newsweek, but I assume this also just merits a dismissive guffaw before we move on. At best, perhaps some former analyst had been tasked with wargaming Japan, it doesn't mean that it was a viable option that anyone took seriously. The US has all kinds of plans that we flesh out and put on the shelf "just in case" that are currently insane. Russia's biggest strength would be completely useless in this hypothetical attack, how the hell are they getting their artillery and infantry over without being just completely blown to poo poo? With what navy?
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Nov 28, 2022 13:55
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Is Japan in Ukraine? If it was credible, then I think the whole "russia had already decided they were going to attack someone somewhere before inventing a justification, and weighed other options before settling on Ukraine" thing would be related enough to talk about. But its probably not credible, so...
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Nov 28, 2022 14:10
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Charlotte Hornets posted:Basically hold the line and hope Russia comes to it's senses seems to be the tactic if there is any tactic at all to help Ukraine get some actual leverage. The current situation is completely untenable for Russia. If things don't improve and remain more or less where its at, Russia is going to break first. At some point they will run out of prisoners and old men to throw into Ukraine without winter gear, guns that aren't rusted out, or functioning equipment. Its Russia that needs things to improve dramatically very soon, not Ukraine.
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Nov 28, 2022 18:53
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Disorganized citizens facing brutal repression at the whiff of resistance can't effectively resist, and its not really fair to blame them. There's been a lot of attempts to get it started, but Russia is pretty good at immediately dragging everyone away to prison and/or sending them off to Ukraine to die. If Russia had stood back and let people organize and discuss their grievance and protest, I'm sure the whole country would have blown up by now. In this sort of situation where you have a repressive regime, you kinda need the military to revolt, and Putin is several steps ahead of everyone on preventing that from ever happening as well with his own fanatical praetorian guards keeping officers in line, causing Generals to disappear when they get too popular, etc.
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Nov 29, 2022 00:20
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The United States is the 4th-largest steel producer in the world. (5th if you grouped the EU all together) As for shipbuilding, the US Navy is massive, and we aren't importing warships. https://worldsteel.org/steel-topics/statistics/world-steel-in-figures-2022/
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Dec 6, 2022 06:53
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He's been in one prison or another for the last 14 years (I think 2 of those years don't count towards his US sentence, he served 12 out of 25 so almost half). I imagine any contacts, ability to acquire and sell weapons, or resources he may have once had are now long gone. He's probably harmless wrt the war, and "should" remain in jail because that was his sentence and he supposedly deserves it according to us. So, he was mostly a political bargaining chip at this point, and we spent it on Griner.
Rigel fucked around with this message at 17:18 on Dec 8, 2022 |
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Dec 8, 2022 17:16
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Alchenar posted:I don't know how you get these threads wrong repeatedly, but the end of the gif makes it clear it isn't NMS at all and actually quite funny. There's at least a couple other things in the OP that probably could apply. This thread is a high risk posting zone. Speaking of which, I'd better add some content. To all the discussion about how it'll be up to Russia to decide when they have had enough and decide to end the war (by leaving Ukraine), Putin basically responds with "no, you". Kremlin says it’s up to Zelensky when Ukraine conflict ends
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Dec 9, 2022 23:00
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Well OK then, it is not often that you have a day where you pretty much know for sure that it is going to be a historic day. Zelensky flying over for a prime-time televised joint session of congress to ask for assistance to defeat a Russian invasion seems like a pretty big deal.
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Dec 21, 2022 14:07
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That speech was absolutely fantastic. Zelenskyy could not have possibly done more for his country than that speech today.
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Dec 22, 2022 02:10
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