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boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:

Often? Always! I've never seen anyone just call it "Ukraine" in German, it's always "die Ukraine" everywhere. It also has the same connotation that "The Ukraine" has in English: Not a real country, just some kind of territory.

Like die Schweiz, right? Absolutely not a real country, and we're just waiting for somebody to lay an actual claim to it

Jokes aside, I googled this briefly yesterday and I don't think you can so easily equate it to the social connotations that the term has in English

https://german.stackexchange.com/questions/10907/why-do-some-but-not-all-countries-have-articles/10909?noredirect=1#comment27592_10909

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boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Genocide has been a key part of the Soviet playbook since the beginning though?

And the Muscovite one before that

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

I assume if they're pretending to be part of the deal it means they have the capacity to slow it down way more from the inside than if they were on the outside making empty threats and having their bluffs called at speed

The same logic is also AFAICT part of why the UK joined and stayed in the EU for so long despite being consistently ideologically opposed to the entire concept of continental European unity. You can gently caress poo poo up and derail things a lot more easily if you're on the team responsible for implementing it, rather than part of the angry but largely impotent picket line outside

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Discendo Vox posted:

While the latter paragraph is a famous joke from Yes, Minister, it describes a unity of planning, intent and deception to all the UK that’s just not evident.

Never watched the show but I always figured it was more a consequence of natural/reactive Tory thinking rather than a deliberate supervillain style scheme. You have take the wealth and benefits from the EU and claim them as your own, while blaming the EU as a bogeyman for all your internal corruption/incompetence. And the EU has taken the reins for European politics/progress for a long time now, Tories have no ideology that isn't reactionary or class/race war and self-enrichment, so if you aren't a part of the EU to then "bring it down from the inside" (or at least "keep an eye on the bastards") the next question is "ok so what are you doing instead?" which, as you say, they have no good answer for. It's why a lot of conservative parties are far more effective in opposition, they are attack dog contrarians but incredibly poor at actual governing, even assuming they do have one iota of actual ideology (good or evil)

I'm sick today so this might be rambling, sorry in advance

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Yeah if those are grads IIRC a full salvo of 40 rockets will generally fall within like a 100 x 100m square. Dunno if that increases beyond a certain distance? But it's why they point multiple at the same target and fire them all at the same time, greater coverage to compensate for unguided

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Given the absolutely hosed up space that Ukraine has been expected to operate in, in terms of decorum, the military/civilian situation, and what's politically palatable to western powers, Zelenskyy and the broader Ukrainian administration have been absolute bloody saints

You get a hundred times as many fuckups that are a hundred times as bad from western leaders that are supposed to be leading the world in political and diplomatic maneuvering, and here's Ukraine on the 'periphery' struggling to fight a defensive war against a genocidal regime and showcasing what is imo a masterclass in international relations. Yeah there have been fuckups but on the whole if someone was trying to make a tv show about this whole thing it'd be dismissed as masturbatory West Wing nonsense

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Tehdas posted:

The naval drones for the attack on Sevastapol were (allegedly) supplied by the US, they didn't bat an eye at Ukraine's blowing up the Kerch bridge, or the destruction of Saky airbase in Crimea.

So either they are telling Ukraine to stop it in private and Ukraine is ignoring them, or they are okay with Ukraine attacking Crimea.

(then again there was no public rebuke of Ukraine even when they did the incursions into Belgorod either, so it's possible that mainland Russia is an okay target too from the US POV)

The official US position is that Crimea is Ukraine, not Russia, so that doesn't count. And the Belgorod attack was with (I'm pretty sure) Ukrainian armaments (helicopters and I assume missiles too), not US-supplied

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

National defence for the vast majority of countries seems to be largely just an opportunity for upper class grift rather than an actual existential consideration and Ukraine is seeing the consequences of that now from its Europe allies.. who, at least in Germany's case, will probably not learn a goddamn thing. Because as has always been the case and will remain the case, the leadership class has more in common with their enemies than the people they control

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Chalks posted:

Is there any analysis that tries to explain Germany's dithering on the tanks issue? It's such a strange situation

I haven't seen anything concrete but it feels cultural to me. Germans will (broadly speaking) always just do whatever the government says, and in lieu of clear messaging they stay the course, so since German domestic needs dictate their foreign policy it seems like Scholz feels comfortable assuming he can ride the gap of just not saying anything for as long as it takes until things work out in his favour. And from a domestic standpoint he's not wrong, lovely as it is - the situation at home is more than okay, so long as empathy doesn't enter into it (and why would it? Business is business and there's no longer any pressing existential threat, as they briefly feared with energy supply)

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

mrfart posted:

Have Ukrainian military already been training with these in the US? Or do they still have to start the training once they arrive?

Apparently they started training two weeks ago in Germany, mid Jan

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...hting-vehicles/

Hard to quote cos I'm on mobile

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Dull Fork posted:

Thanks for the link, let me try to explain my line of thinking a little more clearly.

Earlier in the thread posters were discussing Sholz's unwillingness to send tanks, and suggesting that due to his base's/Germany's own split on the issue, thusly Sholz was as well, even if it was the 'right' thing to do, it was politically unpopular.

To an American, a draft is an extremely unpopular thing, due to the last time it was used, it was to send unwilling teenagers to die in Vietnam for a war they didn't support. So I saw an incongruency in action. Why is the German govt mumbling about bringing back the draft (in my mind a super unpopular decision) when sending tanks was too unpopular for Sholz constituents?

Germans are not Americans and Germany is not America. I hope this helps

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

This isn't true at all



OP is technically/objectively incorrect but it was mentioned previously (and it's a fair point too) that it used to be very common in Europe until countries largely gave up on non-grift related military expenditure after the USSR collapsed, which included ending mandatory military service.

Since we're talking about Germany potentially reintroducing it, here's the status/history of conscription from wikipedia for the European Union member states, so you can compare.. to me it shows that this was pretty normal until relatively recently. Definitely within living memory for significant chunks of the population, but probably not for the kids who would be called into it



e: forgot to timg it

boofhead fucked around with this message at 23:52 on Jan 31, 2023

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

I think there's been a pretty concerted push for RU propaganda to time with what looks to be their latest offensive (or at least ramping up) rather than the usual Russian "throw everything out there and see what sticks" kind of propaganda. Especially in response to escalating Western aid with regard to tanks, which is also something I've been wondering about for a few weeks - I'm still waiting to see what happens this month but I'm wondering if the go ahead for tanks came because Russia is looking comparatively more dangerous than in previous months

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

big shtick energy posted:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2023

The renewed offensive has apparently already started, with (presumably mostly mobilized) actual troops instead of LNR/DPR forces or wagner. Given that russia has hundreds of thousands of troops ready to deploy, and still has plenty of armored vehicles and artillery left, this offensive could be very dangerous for ukraine.

I'm hoping that Russia has significantly sped up its tempo on this to try to claim territory and dig in before Bradleys/Marders and Leopards arrive, and that means they're going to be rushing in half-cocked and disorganised/unsupplied. Might be too much to hope for, but let's see. A video from welt.de on Tuesday says that the first 60 of the Bradleys could be there in 1-2 weeks (is this accurate? seems a bit slow somehow). I get the impression that those could be incredibly helpful on both defensive and offensive actions, so long as they're not going head to head with T-80s or such

e: hm the ship containing the bradleys made it to belgium on the 7th and left last night, i guess 1-2 weeks is just a broad estimate for moving that much cargo across the continent

boofhead fucked around with this message at 08:47 on Feb 9, 2023

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Bundeswehr is about 183k active, 29k reserve as of 2022 according to Wikipedia

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Libluini posted:

According to German Wikipedia, the reserve is over 900k. I'm guessing English Wiki only counts currently actively serving reservists or something dumb like that

Whoops, yes good catch. The Bundeswehr has both figures (but also different numbers), the 35k is for reservists who have been summoned into duty, total pool is 930k

https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/ueber-die-bundeswehr/die-reserve-der-bundeswehr/auftrag-der-reserve-der-bundeswehr

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

There are a lot of articles about the west realising they have glaring munitions shortfalls in stockpile and production, there are already some baby steps being taken to counter this, so hopefully 1) it'll be sufficient and 2) the vast majority of increased production goes straight towards where the war is actually happening, rather than just refilling reserves and then transferring Ukraine the surplus 5 years from now

Both points so far are huge question marks, at least as far as I've seen

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Hey so I'm getting conflicting messaging, what's the trick to getting the admins to like and listen to you ? Do I have to pretend to be a super hardcore holodomor denier and tankie brigader or can I get away with just some lighter ethnic cleansing rhetoric and still be in their good books? Just trying to figure out the vibe so I don't accidentally express sympathy for the victims of genocide or warcrimes or anything gauche like that

Fucken shameful leadership, hiding behind "just following orders, that's beyond my pay grade!!" cop mods

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Is there actually any merit to the idea that you can so comprehensively defeat a people militarily that they never go to war again? People keep talking about a few examples where "we didn't do it, and look where that got us" and then always "look at Germany and Japan, we got em" but is there any evidence to suggest that's a causation and not a correlation? Because I feel like if I needed to, I could put together a reasonably long list of historical examples of people being "comprehensively defeated militarily" or whatever but not necessarily giving up on the war idea

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

It's a very long border, you can't line it with tanks and troops at every point. Generally you secure as many of the choke points and key locations that you can, then have mobile reserves away from the border who can reinforce / counterattack as needed

So the "how" is probably very simple - I assume they just drove/walked there. I imagine Russia is also undermanning the border with Russia proper because they know that Western support will dry up overnight if Ukraine actually tries to conquer and hold territory that isn't Ukrainian

The "why" though is a bit odd (assuming it's true)

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Paladinus posted:

I was seeing a lot of reports that Russians have left Nova Kakhovka, which is on the left bank of Dniepr. Now it's confirmed by AFU's General Staff

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0U5nJd58nTcbXGSvYBTe69DXdzTxSF5iQHQpCH9xu4qho9QuQ2oGUg4Vba3aurhDsl

My guess is this a large scale rotation, and they are about to be sent to Bakhmut or Avdiivka, but it's strange that apparently all of them left like that.

funny, def mon literally just posted:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1638950820694597645

quote:

Calm down. There is no liberation of Nova Kakhovka.

e: unless that's a sarcastic reference i dont get. e2: no he's saying it's bullshit

as always i guess let's wait and see. but it does seem at least like RU is moving a bunch of troops around to reinforce the attack on avdiivka

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boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Deleted tweet, FYI.

I know you probably saw it already but for anybody who hadn't, it was a mistaken announcement by Ukraine that Russia had abandoned Nova Kakhovka in Kherson, which they shortly afterwards retracted

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