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Feliday Melody posted:I know Russia is supposed to have exemptions for skilled workers etc. But I doubt that the skilled workers trust the corrupt recruiters that run around kidnapping people. It seems to be that the mobilisation is done by the region/Oblast and some are basically doing what you are describing just to fill their quotas (which has led some to believe the numbers mobilised are much greater than 300,000). After that they are sent to processing by the military and from there those who are exempt/unable are sent back home.
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Oct 12, 2022 08:55
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:Often? Always! I've never seen anyone just call it "Ukraine" in German, it's always "die Ukraine" everywhere. It also has the same connotation that "The Ukraine" has in English: Not a real country, just some kind of territory. Doesn't German place an artikel infront of many countries names?
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Oct 12, 2022 10:29
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James Garfield posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/notabanderite/status/1580646785713721344 I would not say they 'created' a new method, as cutting off your enemy from reinforcement/supply is not exactly cutting edge. They do have the 'luxury' of fighting on their own turf in that they do not have to commit so many resources to secure and control their supply lines. And if your enemy is not motivated/trained enough to fight after being cut off it makes it all the more simple. When they start pushing deep into the Donbass and come in contact with the local populace that has not been so Kiev friendly the last decade or so we will see if these tactics continue to work.
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Oct 14, 2022 08:14
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PerilPastry posted:He also said this. Looks like he's trying to pull his old trick of positioning himself as a moderate voice of reason amenable to compromise despite the fact that his opening position is going to be completely unpalatable to Ukraine (acknowledging the annexation of Donbass is a non-starter). Which I guess is basically doubling down on the talking point that it was the Ukrainians who completely unreasonably abandoned the diplomatic track despite the progress supposedly made during the Istanbul negotiations. Doubt anyone is going to bite. Putin has very little to offer other than further increasing the suffer on Ukraine and his own people, him and his regime are no better than a hostage taker in regards to how well his demands will be met.
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Oct 14, 2022 15:53
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It is probably safe to assume that Ukraine has most if not all of their short ranged AA positioned with/around their conventional forces and not defending cities.
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Oct 18, 2022 10:50
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We are also seeing people trying to shoot down slow flying Iranian made drones in the middle of Kyiv with small arms. While they do have short and long range AA assets protecting critical infrastructure around major cities, most of those resources are (and should be) positioned to protect their ground forces in the East and South.
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Oct 18, 2022 12:54
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saratoga posted:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1582469084964220928 Has Putin ever said he is in command of the armed forces or something? Because I am not sure why people keep saying he is micro managing his generals. He did not have a history of doing so in past Russian conflicts. It was also reported he made phone calls to field commanders, and after that he fired/replaced several high ranking generals. Which leads us to believe they were feeding him BS and he reacted accordingly. He is obviously setting political goals/orders such as not retreating from Kherson, but since it is possible his entire operation and career hinge upon holding it I can see why those orders were made.
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Oct 19, 2022 07:49
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Popular Front just dropped an episode about the Russian far right militias in Ukraine, https://www.popularfront.co/podcast. I knew they existed, but was not familiar with the names and individuals involved. Their upbringing in the Soviet times well as all the names that are frequently mentioned in this forum and their history was quite the interesting and suprising part. I really like the hosts style and type of reporting, has a really good documentary on youtube about Ukrainian soccer hooligans fighting in Ukraine... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsodbPkjO3c1
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Oct 20, 2022 13:01
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Rigel posted:Even if there are enough you'd still want to pass it now to not have a financial hostage situation where the GOP demands some lovely domestic spending cuts as an offset in exchange for agreeing to Ukraine aid. Thats probably what the actual gameplan would be in the house if the GOP won. That is totally the game plan. They have been complaining about spending so much money to defend Ukraines borders, but not the Mexican border all summer. Most Republicans, and particularly the Senate have been supportive of Ukraine but I have no doubt that they and the House Republicans will want strings attached to any future aid packages if they happen to take house/senate control after the elections.
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Oct 21, 2022 06:40
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It is diffilcult to say at this point on whether they will or will not, as the Russian regime has not exactly been making rational decisions as of late. Their media has been spouting out about how they should destroy all Ukrainian infrastructure and force them to freeze/capitulate this winter. Combine that with if they are indeed being routed, it would be probable for the command and political leaders to lash out and flip the proverbial board game.
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Oct 21, 2022 09:14
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Russia has been one of the few countries to cooperate with Iran over the decades, so it is partially do not bite the hand that feeds and do anything to destroy the Great Satan.
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Oct 21, 2022 10:36
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fatherboxx posted:The problem is he is elbow deep in blood due to overseeing occupational administrations and replacement would be someone who could plausibly sign a peace deal, so I don't know why Ukrainian intelligence points at him while Putin is alive and healthy. If all your enemies (Ukraine/NATO) are talking about a post Putin Russia, it would probably cause a little paranoia and possibly internal division. It is also diffilcult seeing Putin accepting any sort of ceasefire/peace treaty other than Ukraine giving up those regions as Russian territory well as other equally humiliating terms.
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Oct 24, 2022 11:38
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While NATO/US will not negiotiate anything without Ukraine at the table, they will have a say (probably not publicly) when that time comes. There could be a scenario(s) where Russia does offer something appeasing to the West and not Ukraine. For instance pulling its forces out of Ukraine/Donbass, be willing to demilitarize those regions they annexed illegally, and hold elections in those regions in regards to a future with Ukraine or Russia (there are obvious problems with these proposals). If the war drags and and becomes stagnant in another year or so I could see a ceasfire deal such as this being quite diffilcult for western governments to not look at seriously and pressure Ukraine to do something they would rather not.
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Oct 25, 2022 07:00
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mobby_6kl posted:They already did the "referendum" there, they're not going to do another one. And how is it supposed to work anyway? Hey Biden, stop sending weapons and we promise to withdraw forces (but still retain claims???) on the occupied territories? And we don't care if Ukraine won't stop fighting? Like I said, there are obvious problems with these proposals. But to answer your question directly said elections/referendums would have international backing and oversight, and would happen after Russia removes all their forces out of Ukraine as defined by the pre 2014 borders and in addition there here would be no stopping of military or other assistance to Ukraine. How likely would this to occcur? I would give it a non 0% chance, but not much greater than that long as Putin is in charge. It is mostly a thought experiment on what sort of ceasefire deals Russia could offer that would be supported by NATO/US and their populations but not Ukraine, and how this could cause reduced support for Ukraine.
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Oct 25, 2022 09:12
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While I understand Russia blaming every failure of theirs on NATO and its members instead of Ukraine, but how likely or able are some of these Sea/Air unmanned vehicles actually being operated by someone outside of Ukraine? We know it can be done from half way around they world with US and its Predator operators and at this point since Ukraine has been supplied with so much Western equipment there will not be any smoking gun for Russia to take pictures of and say so and so is directly responsible. Is Russia or anyone else for that matter able to figure out from where drones are being operated from?
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Oct 31, 2022 09:29
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Charlz Guybon posted:This seems too good to be true Possibly. While it means Kherson will not be destroyed, many more Russian soldiers will be waiting for them on the other side of the Dnipro. In addition the Russian high command is willing and able to perform actions that while not so favorable on the political side, actually benefit their fighting forces. I am curious to why all those officials/reports were stating the last few days that the Russians were infact reinforcing positions in and around Kherson. Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 13:10 on Nov 3, 2022 |
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Nov 3, 2022 13:07
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mrfart posted:Water and energy are very often part of the stakes in wars. But yeah, that will get a lot more prominent in the future. The Ukrainians will not have to make any such deal. If the Russians intentionally (or unintentionally) happen to destroy or even cause radiological dispersal from a nuclear power plant they will have much bigger problems besides fresh water to Crimea. As has been mentioned, cutting the water supply will not cause any real problems for the Russians other than the PR issue and pissing off the farmers.
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Nov 4, 2022 08:56
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I do not think comparing the mobilised of WW1 to those Russians being mobilised today is appropriate, at least not until they arrive at the front and see the realities of combat. Even with the current amounts of censorship by the Russian government, the availability of information outside of the official channels is something that makes those comparisons not so apt. Despite that, I can see how young men in these rural areas of Russia with not much going on (and living in conditions not much worse than some dugout in the Donbass), a chance for a good paycheck and some adventure in Ukraine would give it a go.
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Nov 9, 2022 07:32
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While the 'voluntary' withdraw from Kherson will benefit Russian logistics and abilities to defend on their side of the Dnipro, here are a couple points on why it is major accomplishment for Ukraine going into the winter. Moral for many Russian units will most likely not improve, and that will only be exacerbated by winter conditions. This does give the Russians time and space to further fortify their positions, however the influx of precision weapons and drones from NATO will negate the usefullness of said defensive positions. Have we seen these smaller drones equiped thermal imaging? Because dropping a grenade down every hot stove pipe is going to make for a miserable time on the front. We have seen the Ukrainians capable of maneuver warfare, winter conditions will hamper this, but it can be done if the winter is cold enough and minimal snow. I think if those good conditions do occur it is highly probable the Ukrainians perform major offensive operations in the winter.
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Nov 10, 2022 09:19
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:How did Ukraine end up with some many casualties? Don't they have an enormous advantage since they're defending? In the early months their Territorial troops were learning things the hard way and getting mauled, and they have been on the offensive since at least August. I would say it is a fair assessment that their casualties (KIA/WIA) are not that far off from actual Russian ones. However, I do not know of most reports include LPR and DPR casualties with the Russian. In regards to POWs, has Ukraine or Russia released any numbers? If Russians have been surrendering or being captured in any large numbers one would think it prudent for them to release those numbers for moral and propaganda purposes.
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Nov 11, 2022 08:10
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Yes, depending on a few factors your accuracy usually consists of this or that grid square.
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Nov 11, 2022 08:54
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Russia is claiming the have evacuated all men and material safely across the Dnipro. Seeing a lot of these twitter feeds stating otherwise, and not seeing much in regards to combat footage that we seen during the push around Kharkiv. We know how trustworthy the Russian MoD is, but it does seem like Ukraine has not been pressing the attack to the extent in which they could and really making things diffilcult for the Russian retreat. While we probably will not be told the exact reasons or story of what is all currently going on it does really seem like Russia made some sort of deal with Ukraine to let them withdraw relatively unharrassed. If so, the failure to capture/destroy the Russian forces on their side of the river could come back to bite them. Truly a Dumbkirk.
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Nov 11, 2022 13:14
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The big NATO meeting way back in Octobor pledged to increase protection and defence of Ukrainian infrastructure, was there ever any details on how they would go about that? One would think that beefing up Ukrainian IADS would be relatively easy politically well as a great way to test capabalities against Russian systems. At this point in the conflict it seems these mass missile strikes are the only way for Russia to lash out and feel good about themselves.
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Nov 16, 2022 08:31
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If Russia did not launch a war of conquest against Ukraine, then no Polish farmers would be dead because of Russian actions against Ukraine. Nobody but the Kremlin and their loyal supporters are going to be nitpicking the words and reaction of Zelensky because of this.
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Nov 16, 2022 12:59
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Anne Frank Funk posted:Which is basically to say, that we will never get rid of the theory that NATO tries to hide the truth of Przewodow. What is there to hide? It was either directly caused (targeting error or not) by Russia, or indirectly due to Ukraine trying to shoot down incoming russian ordnance. In all honesty, unless Russia admits it was targeting Polish tractors no one is going to be talking about this in a few weeks time.
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Nov 17, 2022 10:45
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Unless the Ukrainian Army/Government can make some major changes on how Russians view surrendering to Ukrainians these war crimes are only going to increase in scale and intensity. There was a recent podcast from the Team House with the leader of Mozart group https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/from-marsoc-to-the-mozart-group-andrew-milburn-ep-174/id1492797340?i=1000585761826, and he mentions this in saying that one of the big reasons we have not seen more or mass surrending is due to the fact that treatment from both sides towards POWs is becoming more brutal. Incidentally he also mentions that they refuse to train units who show the trainers videos or pictures of mistreatment of POWs... It is a long podcast with them going down a lot of non Ukrainian related tangents, but an interesting one nonetheless from someone who has been on the frontlines there for most of the conflict.
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Nov 18, 2022 11:40
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They would all eject safely and sit out the rest of the war in a comfy Soviet POW camp.
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Nov 21, 2022 07:54
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Popete posted:Ukraine is still operating aircraft off of roads and other makeshift airfield right? That's doable with a small air force but not so much one big enough to really have air superiority. https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-understanding-no-fly-zones/ This is a podcast from back in March, but is still relevant in regards to the obvious problems in providing Ukraine with F14/F16. But the final assessment by the US Air Force Colonel is that Ukraine could of and should be flying these airframes by this time in the war. The biggest criticism, and I do not remember if he addresses it, is that they do require long and relatively pristine runways and Ukraine is having problems in that regards. In RUSI report on how the Russian Air Force failed in Ukraine, they do mention the Gripen being the most logical plane for NATO to equip Ukraine with in that it is relatively easy to maintain and you use most roads to take off on.
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Nov 24, 2022 09:28
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Regardless of what Macron intended to say or not, at a minimum Putin will not and cannot accept anything less than the Ukrainian land he has claimed as annexed. And unless something changes in their favor on the ground the Ukrainians are also in no way going to cede said land. While the Macron and the rest of NATO may be attempting to give Putin off ramps, I hope they are following that in backchannels between the two that NATO/US will only increase material support and start giving more long range strike capabilities to the Ukrainians if Russia keeps this up.
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Dec 5, 2022 12:41
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I big problem for both sides is that Bakhmut (and surrounding areas) have been a giant mud pit since late fall. Moving heavy vehicles offroad could lead to you exposing weak points, or getting stuck in the mud and then blown up by artillery after some drone spots you. So your safest bet if you want to advance is to do so on foot and small numbers, which is also a bad idea when the enemy has thermals and/or drones everywhere. Temps seem to be dropping the next few weeks, if the ground hardens properly we may see things open up.
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Jan 5, 2023 11:23
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the holy poopacy posted:You know that Russia can just walk away any time they want, right? Unfortunately the reality is they cannot. The Putin regime has 2 options. Come away with something they can call a victory, or not be the ruling regime in Russia. There is no going back to February 23, 2022, and they will keep throwing bodies at the problem until one of those two things occur. Western media seems to be showing emphasis on the rift between Wagner and the regular armed forcues, with Prigozhin trying to take all the glory at Soledar and the Russian MoD stating otherwise. Is this side of it being reported in Russia media?
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Jan 12, 2023 06:43
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Take Saddam. Achieved none of his goals from invading Iran while losing a few hundred thousand dead. Stayed in power. Proceeds to get his army absolutely annihilated a few years later in the Gulf War. Still stayed in power. Putin does not instill fear into the populace the way Saddam did. Far as I am a aware no one is being slowly melted in acid, pumped full of compressed air, and then their entire extended families murdered in Russia the way Saddam did to the Iraqi people. Looking at Russian history in particular during the last century, losing wars did not go wall for those in charge. I am aware that is not a predictor of the future, but for a Putin who portrayes himself as this strong man protector of everything Russia(n), his prospects of remaining in power do not look good if Russia is humialiated by Ukraine.
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Jan 12, 2023 08:12
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Flavahbeast posted:Wagner PMC boss Prigozhin has announced that Youtube will soon be banned in Russia, with punishments for anyone who uses it Is Prigozhin now also the Kremlin spokesman?
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Jan 18, 2023 13:00
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Antigravitas posted:
Maybe in a few decades we will found out what is actually being said between NATO partners in regards to sending equipment, and in particular modern MBTs to Ukraine. While Germany keeps coming up with reasons for not sending or allowing others to export the Leopard 2, Scholz has said they do not want to 'burn all bridges' to Russia by being the largest exporter of arms to Ukraine behind the US. I would go on to say that this is true of most NATO nations, as this war will end one day and they will have to deal with Russia in whatever condition it comes out of this war in. I would expect more of the same in regards to arms shipments and support for the near future, with small incremental steps being taking by NATO and only increasing the amount and types of support directly in relation to escalatory actions by Russia.
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Jan 19, 2023 09:38
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Antigravitas posted:German officials have been pretty clear that there's nothing preventing anyone from sending Leopard 2. File for re-export, the Ministry of the Economy is going to grant it, and it'll go to the Sicherheitsrat. Scholz isn't going to blow up the government over it by overruling the vice chancellor. According to the BBC that is not the case. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64329059 quote:So why is Mr. Scholz dithering over their delivery? All indications are that he will allow third countries to supply their Leopards - The Germanc Vice Chancellor said so a week or so ago. But Mr. Scholz ahs not yet commited. He's cautious for several reasons. But Germany putting the ball 100% in the US's court in regards to sending tanks is expected.
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Jan 19, 2023 13:31
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:does timing the new offensive on the anniversary of the old offensive risk running into the exact same issue where if you aren't able to decisively achieve your operational objectives in a month suddenly your frontline combat units have an extended line of communication running through a sea of mud? I do not think the current 'Offensive' goals are ambitious as to those from 1 year ago. Until Russia is able to concentrate enough force close to the front line as possible, we will probably continue to see many of these small pushes by Russian forces in maybe the hope that something breaks in regards to the Ukrainian lines, how they intend to exploit those breaks is another question. The Ukrainians have a similiar problem, as Russian artilley continues to be effective. Even with sending western MBTs to Ukraine, I am still having trouble seeing any significant breakthroughs (unless there are major collapses of moral) without one side or the other having effective air superiority. Even having local superiority could effectively hinder or even stop reserve forces from reinforcing any collapses in the line leading to actual meaningful gains. So what comes first, Russian collapse of moral or NATO sending planes to Ukraine?
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Feb 10, 2023 06:31
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Antigravitas posted:Real coercive power comes from rescinding Hungary's voting rights in the EU. No clancy chat. The only possible silver lining is that Hungary will not be led by Orban forever, and hopefully the next regime is more EU centric. It does seem like there are conversations going on behind the seems in regards to Orbans undying love for Putin, and that he should probably start thinking about how that is going to effect him and his future. Or (clancy chat territory) is that the EU is rather sly and working with Orban to possibly feed/gather information to and from the Kremlin, and that this is all a ploy. Unfortunately the EU is the EU and that most likely is not the case.
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Feb 10, 2023 10:36
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Assaulting fortified/entrenched enemy is not an easy task, even more so when you have little or no training. The Ukrainians are happy to showcase these Russia failures, for obvious reasons. However it is not like it has been entirely one sided affair, as told by the casualty estimates. Hopefully Russian ineptitude is not showcased to the Ukrainian soldiers to much, to not underestimate them. For experienced troops/commands I do not think that is a problem, but it is probably important to communicate to fresh troops that although the Russians are going to do Russian army things, they can still kill you. Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 12:29 on Feb 10, 2023 |
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Feb 10, 2023 11:57
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In regards to both sides KIA/WIA ratios, the inability and high risk of getting medevac helos close to the front line is possibly leading to similiar ratios to that of WW2 which was 1:3 (on average), I am willing to bet it is closer to the Vietnam War 1:4 ratio due to advances in IFAK and that the front lines are not so far from city centers/Hospitals. Fortunately we do not see to much about other side consistently targeting Hospitals yet.
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Feb 13, 2023 06:31
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Do the Chinese really have any interest in brokering peace other than for their own prestige? A weakened and dependent Russia is probably in their best interest.
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Feb 13, 2023 10:54
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