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FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Sociopathy to view this war as anything good

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FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021


Weren't they already blocking starlink in occupied parts of Ukraine?

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

OLENA ROSHCHINA - TUESDAY, 11 OCTOBER 2022, 20:30 Russians have created an image of a passport of a Ukrainian citizen named Semen Khaidenko in a photo editor in order to persuade people that Ukraine is behind the Crimean Bridge explosion.

Can't believe UP reported this lmao

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Sir John Falstaff posted:

except the Myanmar UN rep is left over from before the military coup

There should be a sitcom or comedy film about a diplomat who gets forgotten after a revolution and becomes the sole representative of a non existent government/state

They can call it "Government in Ex-Kyle" or something

the main characters name would have to be kyle, I can't think of a better pun.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1580603516254818305

I'm not fully convinced though am hopeful.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Zedsdeadbaby posted:

BBC news is saying the Russians have ordered civilian evacuation of Kherson, so they're getting ready for a big fight.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63243313

That really sucks. If its a reverse Mariupol the city will be destroyed.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

smug n stuff posted:

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1580438311742894080

It's really weird to me that The Times, an ostensibly high-profile newspaper, would publish a full-on story based on nothing but the claims of the UA Defense Ministry. This isn't the first time this newspaper has done this, iirc.

Journalistic standards have been on pause for everybody

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Belarus has announced a "counter terrorism operation period against provocations"

https://ria.ru/20221014/belorussiya-1823879187.html

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

adebisi lives posted:

What if administration of Crimea could be handed off to a neutral third party that also is indigenous to it (Greece) as part of a peace deal? Don't let perfect be the enemy of good.

Technically Turkey is supposed to have it. Plus the Crimean Tatars have a much better claim than the Greeks.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

National self determination is, at least 70% of the time, a racist lie. The only exception is when there is an actual genocide being threatened. As the status of Russian speakers was fine and essentially unchanged since 1990, despite the propaganda, it does not really matter what anyone there thought.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

GreyjoyBastard posted:

while this is an excellent essay i cannot restrain myself from a quibble, and in fairness, this is dnd

kitab literally means book :mad:

otoh it's a very solid point outside of the amusing linguistic error

I also found it strange that Snyder claimed Putin has nothing to say about the future, when he himself calls Putin a fascist.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Sorry guys Ukraine is now called Amazon Prime and they all speak Finnish now. Such is the price of peace.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

DrankSinatra posted:

I'm a loving idiot with a stupid brain, so you'll have to bear with me, but I can't quite puzzle out what this would actually entail. None of the plausible candidates I can come up with sound particularly good for Crimean Tatars.

I mean this is sorta the flaw with the idea of national self determination as a principle. It only works with big identities that are capable of creating homogeneity.

The non-philosophical answer though is Ukraine. They've adopted, pragmatically but genuinely, a extremely pro-Crimean Tatar policy after the annexation.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

am super hesitant to believe that they would actually do the Kyiv offensive again, I can see them pulling Russian soldiers out of Belarus to send to the front.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1581320865618485248

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

MechanicalTomPetty posted:

What kind of defenses do they have near Kyiv right now? I guess Putin's thought is Ukraine will have to pull troops out of Kherson to defend the home front?

I guess so, that's how they accomplished the advances in the first place. That said, Ukraine can spare the manpower and Russia cannot.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Would you be able to "catch" a suicide drone by putting fishing nets around a target?

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Shifty Pony posted:

Yes, if they are strong enough and spaced far enough away that the target isn't still hosed up by shrapnel.

In WW2 steel cables held up by balloons were used to protect targets against V1 strikes.

afaik the lancet drones use shaped charges, so even if it did detonate it would be a lot weaker.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

spankmeister posted:

Pretty incredible how OSINT Twitter is managing to adhere to media blackouts

It's also pretty silly. The black out is meant for journalists on the ground and local civilians. It's not like OSINT speculation could actually do anything but speculate then...

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Herstory Begins Now posted:

You hear people say a lot that 'this is the first livestreamed war' or whatever, which is patently false. If anything, this is the first war in the digital age that has had extremely effective information control. It's wild to see. Even saying that is a bit of hyperbole as it isn't the first time we've seen extremely good information control, it's just by far the largest conflict that's been demonstrated in.

"This is the first major war since WWII" takes are awful because they really mean is "this is the first war between white people" I've experience as an adult.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Chalks posted:

This is a strange thing to say. OSINT are constantly doing things like accurately geolocating footage and verifying rumours. This sort of information is far more dangerous than news reports which are far more delayed and vague in comparison.

A minority of OSINT accounts are doing OSINT.

A significant portion (like almost all of them) of those accounts are just reposting stuff from telegram for an anglophone audience. Choosing not to tell Americans about what's been posted on some telegram account isn't changing the outcome of poo poo.

FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 21:57 on Oct 16, 2022

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

It's sucks that the switchblade is supposedly over-engineered hot garbage

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Tomn posted:

Now that you mention it, there WAS a lot of guff about the Switchblade when it was first shipped over but I don't think we've seen much in the thread about it since. What are the reports you're getting about it?

As far as I understand it, the whole niche with the switchblade is that it was a small drone that could be launched by a single soldier from a backpack and then be used as a well directed mortar shell. A useful thing if you're on patrol in Afghanistan and get into a firefight, not a big game changer in a war of artillery.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Mr. Apollo posted:

I remember a few months ago when some UAF spokespeople were saying that we’d be seeing lots of Switchblade videos soon but I think I’ve only seen two or three. I also read on Telegram that they were difficult to control so that limited their effectiveness. UAF soldiers found off the shelf drones to be easier to use.

It's like the war version of that apocryphal space pen story

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

sino-soviet split ...

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/1581329208235544579


mmm crimean tartar

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Flavahbeast posted:

11%? huh, thought it was higher

I'm guessing a lot of them were eaten with fried fish

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Deltasquid posted:

And, all things considered, “yes because it’s legally Ukrainian regardless of who lives there”. Or does he think Mexico could invade California on the pretext that the Latino population is the largest in the state

I believe he's trying to make a very astute point about the unique dental care requirements of the peninsula.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Youth Decay posted:

Isn't Zelenskyy himself an ethnic Russian, or at least from a Russian-speaking family? Just because someone is of a particular ethnic/cultural background doesn't mean they automatically support a particular country.

Russian speaking. Ethnic Russian is a bit loaded. Like his parents aren't Russian immigrants.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

spankmeister posted:

Perhaps he is commenting on the crystalline deposits that form over time in wine barrels.

I could go for fried shad with crimean tartar and some fries.


Yes as some people seem to be missing this, I posted this because the ethnic group is called Tatar, tartar is a sauce and something that happens if you dont brush. A nice vignette of some of the excellent expertise the war has brought to the forefront.

FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 07:31 on Oct 17, 2022

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

OddObserver posted:

Okaayyy, I'll probably regret it but... is there time travel involved, or is it second coming or, something? Or do they claim Christianity existing before the 12th century is a Catholic lie (and how does that work with Eastern Christianity in Rus' in 10th century?)

According to adherents like chess champion turned dissident Kasparov, it mainly revolves around the idea that the Roman empire could have have existed until medieval times due to tech limitations

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

I wouldn't read too much into the martial law thing. That was already the de facto state.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Sucrose posted:

You gotta include some translations, friend. I don’t understand what the first tweet signifies at all. Some Russian soldiers are standing around an intersection near Rostov?

It's a geolocation showing that Igor Girkhin (n.g. "Strelkov") is back in Ukraine. He was one the policy entrepreneurs that initiated the Donbas war.

FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Oct 19, 2022

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Yeah I meant going back to the front. I understand where Rostov is.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Sucrose posted:

Edit: nevermind, some other posters explained it.

Will Russians still be able to leave the country with these new restrictions?

The martial law only applies to the occupied territories and a lighter regime in the neighboring territories.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

the holy poopacy posted:

It makes navigation really easy and gives you a guaranteed path clear of trees, at least.

Yeah, they've been doing this since 2014 to avoid AD in Donetsk. Which also led to one of the most terrible videos I've ever seen of an onboard on a helo that gets hit by a missile at like 60 feet off the ground. Just enough time to really scream.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

The wars during the collapse of Yugoslavia were terribly violent and genocidal at times, but as I understand it they started to focus more on the small squad combat the characterized 21st century war, with a few major engagements/sieges as exceptions. 2014 was a different beast entirely, very small units fighting, sides struggling to mobilize official militaries and using a lot of paramilitary. 2022 was remarkable for scale.

I could be wrong about the Balkans, I know very little about those wars.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

The US invading Iran and then getting bogged down would provide some beautiful symmetry to this war

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

slurm posted:

Russia has already had to move around a lot of air defense systems just to stop Ukraine from getting a decisive upper hand, if they had to stretch to cover another large front they'd likely have huge shortages. Opening up the air war in Ukraine seems like it would be huge.

Not even the US has infinite resources. Launching a war in Iran would reduce aid that could be given to Ukraine, and cause a lot of domestic issues for the US if it isn't easy. Plus it would probably lead to a new South Caucasus war, with Iran defending Armenia and Azerbaijan pushing irredentist claims in Northern Iran. It would be a mess and essentially be the start of a world war.

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FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

It would also pretty severely damage NATO's current soft power high ground.

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