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Eric the Mauve posted:The immediate assumption (other than lol meaninglessly tiny sample size) is that the Pens may have a glaring weakness or two that opposing coaches can target more effectively when they have the last change? It's up and down the lineup with the most glaring issues are Letang/Dumo having 1 goal for and 7 against. Kasperi Kapanen having 2 for and 6 against. Jeff Carter 1 for and 4 against. 3 of your 6 defenders sporting a 40% xG goes a long way to explain the struggles (Letang, Dumo, and PoJ). My guess is it's a personnel/systems problem with 2 top 6ers out and having to try and play with Caggiula (extremely awful), Poulin (also very bad numbers), and the usual fickleness (Kasperi Kapanen can not be relied upon for anything) of hockey. Vague other things of note about on the road - shooting near bottom of the league 6.5% so far...that should come up and the goaltending numbers are decent but .680 SV% on high dangers is really bad and you need that closer to .800 minimum. The PK has also been a massive issue. Figuring out a way to get out of their spirals would be nice as well. So far it seems like the Pens will either have a really very excellent period or be putrid dogshit where they look like Arizona.
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Nov 1, 2022 14:36
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| # ¿ May 22, 2024 08:47 |
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St. Louis is tied for 30th in shooting % with the Leafs at 6.01% while they were best in the NHL last year posting 10.42% shooting. Their goaltending finished last year with .920 5v5 sv% and this year it has been .900 so far. Relative to last year they are (so far) creating the same xGF per 60 with only a tiny uptick in xGA but pretty much 2.7 xGA per 60.
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Nov 2, 2022 00:38
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Ginette Reno posted:It's just a five game stretch and maybe they'll pull out of it but right now the Pens look like a team that needs a new coach. I was in favor of extending Sullivan and that is in fact what they did but good lord this is a bad looking team this year. Thought they played pretty well for the most part tonight. At 5v5. Anything special teams was horrific and Jarry completely lost the plot. The PK/6v5 is a giant flashing problem. It also seems like the team is playing just hard enough to get points to make the playoffs and then they'll turn it on! Just like last year! Or the year before and the year before that.
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Nov 2, 2022 04:17
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Ginette Reno posted:I dunno, just seems like there's underlying structural issues to their game right now in pretty much all facets. But it might just be a personnel issue and not Sullivan. How much can you really expect out of this bottom six, or Dumoulin, or old rear end Petry. The bottom 6 is really really bad. However, idk seems like every year we do the song and dance of 'oh wow the Pens are playing some really really bad hockey' just this year they're losing while doing it instead of winning or 50/50 and some loser points. I think if they can solidify the bottom 6 as not complete trash that would go a long way to papering over some of the cracks in the defense, but boy oh boy does Dumoulin look bad.
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Nov 2, 2022 13:54
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Eric the Mauve posted:Mike Matheson was the straw that stirred the drink, who knew John Marino far more likely...and E Rod 
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Nov 2, 2022 14:33
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:https://twitter.com/GunnerStaal/status/1587641434873659392?s=20&t=_z0jsbYIskHEqGzXfK8HTA He's wrong as well. Dmitry Kulikov leads the league with 21. Dumo is tied with Matt Roy and Zack Werenski for next worse at 19 for all situation goal against. On a per 60 basis Dumo drops in at 18th worst in the league with Ryan Poehling next to him at 17th. When you sort by xGA/60 it improves somewhat but they are both still top 100. The PK is dismal though. Dumo and Poehling are a huge part of that. Also worth mentioning that Jarry went from an excellent start to giving up 16 in his last 3 starts posting an .870 and 2x .850s. Reversing his 2.5 GSAA to 0 in the process. Something else that was raised is that McGinn hasn't been very good value either. On the PK though Dumo is 18 goals against per 60. Rutta, Poehling, Carter, and McGinn are at 17. Petry, Archibald, and Kapanen have 4. The SV% on the PK isn't even that awful at .840 which is 20th of the 32 teams.
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Nov 2, 2022 17:39
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Zaroff posted:I wonder how much of the bad PK is missing Blueger - he’s been a solid part of it. In order of time on ice per game for last years excellent PK - Dumo, Marino, Blueger, McGinn, Boyle, Ruhwedel, ZAR, Carter, Letang, Friedman, and Rust. Starting at 2:20 a game down to :45 seconds per game. Boyle tops out with 8.2 goals against per 60 with the rest of the above group between 5 and 6.3 GA/60. Blueger, as you point out, was other worldly being on the ice for sub 3 goals against per 60. For me the PK definitely misses the ZAR/Blueger combo and Marino. The Dumo/Rutta combo has not worked this year. Mostly on the back of Dumo being exceedingly bad thus far.
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Nov 2, 2022 21:35
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6 straight. Lets go for 7  blown leads and shoddy play all the way around. Whatever they're trying to do system wise isn't working. Dumo with 3 more all situation goals against. The PK was scored on again. The 4th line played 5 minutes 5v5. Top pairing of Letang/Dumo were scored on 2 times 5v5 and caved in corsi/shots/xG wise. Something needs to be done with the Dumoulin situation. A nice farm upstate. Petry also continues to impress in not a good way.
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Nov 3, 2022 03:16
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Eric the Mauve posted:It was pretty obvious the PK would suffer without Marino and ERod but I never expected it to be this much of a horror show. Marino yes. E Rod no. He didn't PK that much for the Pens. I was actually kind of surprised. 35 total minutes PKing last year. His 8.66 GA/60 was in line with Brian Boyle's. ZAR though.......yeah. I am also starting to become concerned with the goaltending. DeSmith was in a different postal code on 2 of the goals tonight and Jarry was extremely active and came unglued yesterday while have 2 very very poor starts prior to that. Going back to the CBJ game you're looking at - .906, .872, .889, .857, .931 (Seattle game DeSmith started), .850, and .871. That's playoff level goaltending for the Pens.
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Nov 3, 2022 03:53
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The Pens will do that thing where they simplify their game to make it the simplest game possible for their goalies to not gently caress up. From like idk mid November to New Years they will play machine like hockey putting up both excellent results and sparkling spreadsheet numbers. Following New Years they injuries will slow them down somewhat and they will return to their 85% effort and sloppy hockey playing close to .500 and finishing 3rd in the Metro before being dumpstered out in the 1st round once again because, as it turns out, it doesn't matter how perfectly they play their goaltending will crack and faulter yet again when put under the slightest of pressure.
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Nov 4, 2022 17:24
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They were thinking it would be NBD and they could pick up a talented player that might help their organization for free.
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Nov 4, 2022 18:03
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ImplicitAssembler posted:And yet, we got a guy shilling for a mass murderer/war criminal and he gets celebrated almost every day on this thread.... Yeah we had the Jagr/Reagan thing yesterday.
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Nov 4, 2022 19:04
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ThinkTank posted:Thr best bit in the NHL is every guy the Leafs waive getting claimed no matter how much they stink. I would welcome ZAR back with open arms
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Nov 5, 2022 23:07
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Ginette Reno posted:Longest losing streak since 05-6 I think, which was the last year they missed the playoffs. Didn't see any of the game. Seems like Jarry laid another dogshit egg of sub .900 goaltending. Delightful.
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Nov 6, 2022 02:49
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Eric the Mauve posted:Petterson-Petry, lol They have been the better pairing and it's both problematic and hilarious.
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Nov 7, 2022 01:19
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DJExile posted:Oh man wait til you find out what you can do online these days Is it post?
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Nov 7, 2022 16:51
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Blackwood is currently 53rd of 65 at 5v5 of goalies with more than 60 minutes of ice time with an .893. All situations move him to 55 of 67. That's pretty bad.
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Nov 8, 2022 02:37
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Ginette Reno posted:https://twitter.com/DannyShireyPGH/status/1590013711455879168?s=20&t=WTxo-05G_9AvNxHemTP66A Kapanen with 9 shots, 14 minutes per in ice time, and 5 points (all at evens) +4 for his first 5 games. Since then 0 points, 6 shots, -7, and 12 minutes a night in ice time. I have no earthly idea what they saw in him beyond 'skates fast in extremely limited circumstances sometimes', but here we are. 3.2 million a year for another year after this for a player that is just a massive passenger. Pointing out that Rakell has also been disappointing 5v5. He has 3 total points and is bottom of the forward pile with 1 point per 60 thus far. I know I wrote a bunch about the LD side for the Pens being weak....and boy is it. I don't think there are any internal solutions to dealing with the Dumo problem and your rental options are pretty limited...send Dumo/Kap to the Yotes for Gost and idk god like Nick Ritchie?
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Nov 8, 2022 20:52
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Probably not! Options only decline from there in terms of rental expiring contracts.
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Nov 8, 2022 23:20
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He might. Getting better than .840 sv% on low danger (usually saved in the .930+ range) would probably help more. Last year the same tandem posted .946 on low dangers, .899 on mid dangers, and .750 on high dangers. So far the high danger sv% is .810, mid is .882, and lows are the .840. Their rates are worse though 22.4 high dangers against per 60 and 51 combined scoring chances against per 60 vs 47.35 scoring chances per and 16.35 high dangers per. Blueger should help somewhat with that but the goaltending has to be much improved as well......and the defense has to be able to make clears. Which is something that Dumoulin has been extremely notable in....not.
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Nov 9, 2022 00:30
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Excited for the Pens to play excellent spreadsheet hockey and go 3 for 4 on the PK and lose 4-2 tonight.
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Nov 9, 2022 16:30
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big black turnout posted:Can someone explain who Bedard is and the mechanic through which he can be obtained? I keep seeing a bunch of Sharks fans who want us to be able to pick him up somehow Top rated draft eligible prospect this year. Supposed to be best player available since uh idk McDavid or such. You pick him up by Uncle Gary
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Nov 9, 2022 17:14
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Pens win hooray. Still giant problems with the defense and 4th line. Part of it is usage part of it is personnel. It seems after the big reshuffle this off-season it's more deck chairs on the Titanic than improvement. Thankfully DeSmith had a strong game and Darcy did not.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:48
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I watch the Premier League to bitch about offside thank you very much.
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Nov 11, 2022 00:40
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Per hockey ref Devil's have played the 2nd easiest schedule so far. That said you can only beat the teams in front of you and their underlying metrics are excellent. Conversely Ottawa has played the 3rd hardest schedule so far.
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Nov 11, 2022 16:16
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Calgary has allegedly played the hardest schedule in the NHL so far and have received slightly sub-standard goaltending and are 2% under league average shooting posting 8% vs 10%. That -5.8 GSAA hurts quite a bit as well.
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Nov 11, 2022 17:16
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Ginette Reno posted:Pens are starting Desmith again tonight. On the one hand he played well vs Washington. On the other I'm not sure about starting him against a team that can get him moving side to side. He challenges so hard that side to side movement isn't exactly a strength of his. Both Pens goalies are bad going side to side and Jarry has had significant more holes in his stance this year than DeSmith. I maintain Jarry is the higher ceiling of the two and when he's on he has very little wasted movement in his game, but in the last 5 starts there has been a lot of flailing and panic. DeSmith was good against Washington and that let the rest of the team find their feet after an extremely poor first 5 minutes. Tonight I'm thinking it's gong show. Also Pens are on a back to back with Montreal so Jarry gets a start this weekend anyways.
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Nov 11, 2022 19:15
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Eric the Mauve posted:Jarry's 26. You're looking at his ceiling. I meant of the two yes. I do not believe he well ever be league average or slightly better on a good night. Which is fine. What has sunk the Pens is when the goaltending is utter dogshit. Like the playoffs!
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Nov 11, 2022 23:14
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I'd prefer not to think about it. More importantly for tonight and tomorrow is if there has been an update on PoJ and Rutta.
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Nov 11, 2022 23:37
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Sorry Qatar is happening if you like it or not...oh not what you meant
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Nov 11, 2022 23:56
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Same 3rd string goalie going tonight for the Leafs too right?
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Nov 13, 2022 01:05
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Pens aren't very good. I know I say that with them taking 5 points out of their last 6 on the road. Don't care.
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Nov 13, 2022 04:08
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:They are a different team from the one that started the season and I can't account for it as a personnel issue. It isn't. Hextall gambled hugely on his defense remake AND giving Kapanen the time of day and it hasn't worked. I've written and deleted a few thoughts. Letting it go for tonight. The simple thing for me though is that there has been huge decline in the Pens defense via age (Letang/Dumo) this season and Petry has been a massive downgrade relative to Marino with no replacement for the 'dynamic' skating of Matheson. I'm fairly sure I wrote a ton about the Pens left side being a potential problem and it absolutely is. Also worrying is that Letang appears to have also hurdled off the age cliff as well.
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Nov 13, 2022 05:13
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Eric the Mauve posted:Just post it!! It was time to sleep. Anyways I just wrote a bunch of  but deleted them again..and again....and now a 3rd time. In very un-Rex fashion it's going to be real short and sweet. - The goaltending, and by that I mean mostly Jarry specifically, has not been nearly good enough. - The PK has been really bad. - Despite what Eric says the Pens are still a very good to excellent defensive team in chance suppression and specifically high danger chance suppression. Geno has outperformed Sid in every real or imagined category involving chance creation or suppression so far this year. - Rutta is paid 2.75 million dollars a year to play less than 15 minutes a night and be worse than Chad Ruhwedel in every way possible. - Jeff Petry is a downgrade on John Marino and does not solve any of the 2nd pairing issues the Penguins had previously. He also costs significantly more. - Letang and Dumo might have both hit the wall. - Carter really really sucks and can not play in the role that Sullivan is asking him to. The 4th line isn't much better at it either. - No one on the back end is capable of carrying the puck with speed through the neutral zone. Additionally, the breakout requires 4 perfect tape to tape to tape to tape passes to execute. Any fumbles, hops, or disruptions lead to the Pens being hemmed into their own zone for the next 5 minutes. - Kasperi Kapanen was rewarded with his 2nd worst season in the NHL with 2 more years and 6.4 million dollars to play less than than 12:30 a night with scratches in 2 of the last 3 games and less than 8 minutes of total ice time last night. In general the team is very very dysfunctional and goes long stretches of playing very very poor hockey. I think it unlikely Hextall does anything substantial to address the issues. I'm not sure I trust he and Burke to correctly identify and address them anyways.
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Nov 13, 2022 21:17
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Kapanen has played with nearly every player on the roster. He's been given chances with Zucker and Malkin. He's been given chances with Carter and Heinen. He was hard carried last year by Heinen and Rodrigues. He's played with Sid for a very very very short time where it was clearly evident in 3 shifts that he can not process the NHL level game. Last year Kapanen had nearly 1000 minutes of 5v5 time. Did you know he spent almost 10% of it with Crosby? No? I actually didn't either. It's higher than I thought. You'll be shocked to know he wasn't very good. In fact the only linemates Kasper played with last year that 'worked' were E Rod and Heinen. You go back to 2020/2021 and shock horror despite that hot streak and 'really looking like a top 6 player' it turns out it was variance and insane on ice finishing at a completely unsustainable level. He also played with 11 players for more than 20 minutes of ice time. Last year Kapanen played with 14 linemates for more than 20 minutes of ice time. It does not matter who you stick him with. He is incapable of playing a high level NHL game. Sullivan is scratching him because even when he plays Kapanen as a 3rd or 4th liner he's awful at getting zone exits. For a player with so much alleged speed (he doesn't) he so very very rarely is able to make use of it. This is because, as I've said many times before, Kapanen is only capable of doing 1 thing at a time and that's topped off with him taking about 7 to 8 strides to hit that top speed. His acceleration/burst is so so so so so so sooooooo soooooooooooooooo bad. So bad. The 5v5 analytics look better than they actually are. It's massively buoyed by play from behind/score effects efforts or the Tampa/Arizona game. Look at them on a period by period basis. It's crazy. Also I'm pretty sure the Pens have blown almost as many leads as Vancouver at this point. Not multi-goal obv although they're probably not too far behind in that category either.
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Nov 13, 2022 23:28
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Furnaceface posted:e: ^^ I think its less if and more when. I doubt they regress as hard as Buffalo but I wouldnt be shocked to see them entering the playoffs as a wild card team. New Jersey has a league best expected goal split of 64%/36%. With 41 xGF and 23.5 xGA. Actual results have evened out to 40 for and 24 against. If the goaltending holds up they are insanely legit.
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Nov 14, 2022 01:34
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Columbus diving straight to the bottom and taking a commanding lead in the tankathon. Fear not, however! There are some exceptionally capable teams in the running.
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Nov 14, 2022 18:16
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:Everyone on the team is going high glove Kapanen will miss
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Nov 15, 2022 16:37
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Concussions and various injuries have slowed him down a little bit and I think he has a shoulder and wrist injury on that glove side which could have hurt his form. The other thing that really seems to have messed with Murray is the pad and jersey changes. Murray is a really really lanky. He is listed at 6'4" and 178lbs. There isn't a lot of meat on that frame which Murray used to be able to cover up with gigantic shoulder pads and he used to have an insanely baggy jersey that managed to catch pucks. I don't believe he is allowed to wear those anymore so there are extra holes in his game that he has to try and cover up which makes the other weaknesses worse. I could also believe his heart really isn't it anymore, but carrying on through the rest of the contract should see him set for life.
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Nov 15, 2022 17:54
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| # ¿ May 22, 2024 08:47 |
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I hope every team boos him now
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Nov 15, 2022 19:37
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