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Anyone have a a general rule of thumb for selling appreciated stock gambles? A couple of my 2022 picks are at or near +100%, which seems like as good a time as any to take some profit. Its not a serious amount of money (<$1000 between the two), but they would both be short term gains which does eat up some of the potential profit. In case anyone thinks I'm here to post about my sick gains, I'll remind you I also invested in Intel
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Jan 6, 2023 23:41
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| # ¿ May 22, 2024 04:34 |
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Subvisual Haze posted:Sold some puts near the money this week to benefit from earnings volatility on VZ and INTC. Pretty boring dividend stocks that I don't expect to drop much more but wouldn't mind owning if they did. Good news, INTC is down nearly 10% AH
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Jan 27, 2023 01:20
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pseudanonymous posted:I doubt his real comp- stock options are being stripped. That’s always the case. Intel cut his stock options a couple months ago already, now has to hit $74.47/share to receive "performance" based stock options $148.95/share to receive "outperformance" based stock options (current price today is $29) SEC filing for nerds: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000050863/000119312522290385/d310344d8k.htm I'm sure his total comp is still pretty high though
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Feb 1, 2023 23:44
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Agronox posted:Hey hey can we keep this at least reasonably close to actually buying and selling securities, and maybe have a separate general business news thread if that's what people are interested in? I looked for this general business news thread for longer than I should admit where exactly am I supposed to post my FOMC hot takes
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Feb 2, 2023 00:29
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laxbro posted:How long does it have to stay above the target for the CEO to receive the bonus? 90 days, per the link The performance target is +157% and the outperformance target is +413% from today's prices. Given the size of Intel, accomplishing either and holding it for a quarter would probably mean an actual improvement in business, not just accounting tricks.
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Feb 2, 2023 04:44
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The current narrative seems to be recession cancelled but Fed cuts coming soon anyways. Futures markets are pricing in rate cuts starting this November. Not sure why that means $CVNA should be up 208% this year, though
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Feb 3, 2023 03:26
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Gaius Marius posted:I've seen how my mom uses Google, ai being able to parse barely coherent run on sentences and turn it into useful answers could be actually useful. "Useful" answers is of course the problem. If you are asking a question and it spits out a well written answer that is completely wrong, how would you know? To be fair, current search results often spit out completely wrong answers that are poorly written, so AI isnt much worse. It doesn't matter much if you get a lousy recipe for chicken piccata, but it very much might matter if it gives incorrect (but convincing) tax advice or something.
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Feb 8, 2023 22:15
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If you want more risk, why not buy more equity? Buying bonds with the volatility of a stock seems like the worst of both worlds. Especially when it only yields a few percent more than an equivalent investment grade corp.
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Mar 1, 2023 04:50
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Leperflesh posted:e. actually there is a think or swim mobile app toilet traders rejoice 
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Mar 3, 2023 02:56
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Hadlock posted:Long term is 20%, how high do they want to raise it 39.6% but only for high income folks
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Mar 10, 2023 01:07
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pmchem posted:i expected more talk of a top-20 us bank and s&p 500 member getting hit with a bank run today among the collapse of the entire VC scene As it turns out, banking high risk companies dependent on cheap capital combined with holding significant assets in long term treasuries does poorly in a rising rates environment. I also got a laugh that they have a non-trivial amount of loans collateralized by "premium wines"
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Mar 10, 2023 03:08
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Scrungus posted:Uh huh. Quick question, what was the value of VWALX 10 years ago? Oh. Same as it is right now? Interesting. ?  thanks for the bad take
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Mar 10, 2023 18:12
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Bremen posted:I just got offered 5.4% on an 18 month CD from Schwab, which seems like quite a jump over similar offerings. I'm not really super financially savvy, but could that be related? Banks suddenly worried about liquidity? Given that rates have fallen across the board over the past few days, 5.4% on a CD looks like a very good deal. edit: for reference, a 2 year treasury was yielding over 5% last Thursday, but is at about 4.1% today.
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Mar 13, 2023 17:44
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That is crazy that as the Fed continuously hiked rates in 2022 SVB actually increased their portfolio duration and eliminated the (minimal) duration hedging they had. Really, really hard to understand
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Mar 13, 2023 19:45
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I also added more $C to my holdings yesterday in the $45-46 range. I liked it last year at that price, and if anything it looks better now since a lot of large accounts learned this week the risk of banking with a smaller, less regulated bank. Trading at a sizable discount to tangible book and being #1 in treasury and trade services are pluses as well.
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Mar 15, 2023 00:24
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Hadlock posted:Isn't Citi one of those "do not buy" bank stocks? This was discussed at length in the last thread maybe a month before it got closed I'll bite: why? Its not 2008 and they are way more regulated. That being said $C is a 2x return in 3-5 years pick, not a 50% return in a week pick. For what its worth, I've got ~$1k invested, so consider me biased
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Mar 15, 2023 21:55
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Since you are following it a bit closer than I am - do you know the strategy behind the divestiture of their "legacy franchises" (Banamex, etc)? Is it a move to become a smaller and less globally significant (and presumably regulated a little lighter)? Or just to exit international consumer banking in general? They dont appear to be losing money in the segment, though its not terribly profitable either.
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Mar 16, 2023 21:58
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Mods: where's our promised current events thread In its absence, since we are bank chatting here, from this afternoon: Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BNY-Mellon, PNC Bank, State Street, Truist and U.S. Bank to make uninsured deposits totaling $30 billion into First Republic Bank
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Mar 16, 2023 23:40
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Thanks, that was interesting. I usually read the quarterly investor presentations for the companies I invest in, but not always the commentary. There definitely is a little extra color there, as they'd say. Re: current events thread - I definitely didn't see the very important "not" in "I'm not gonna start a new general econ thread now myself".
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Mar 17, 2023 01:49
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Yellen did poorly in that clip, but what was she really going to say? "No, we are not going to bailout your rural Oklahoma banks if they fail" might spur additional bank runs. "Yes, we are going to cover 100% of all deposits regardless of size at every bank" isnt much better - it sends the message to banks that they can take as much risk as regulations allow with little consequence (to depositors at least, equity holders likely wouldn't be so lucky).
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Mar 17, 2023 06:49
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Baddog posted:That's what should be keeping them in check though, bankers are responsible for taking care of their shareholders. I was listening to a podcast earlier today that discussed that point: quote:The theory is that in order for market regulation to work, private regulation [referring to equity holders] must work, and there has to be disclosure. A bank has to be transparent about the risks it's taking. A bank can't be transparent about the risks it's taking if it doesn't have processes to monitor and disclose those risks. The job for supervisors is to make sure banks are monitoring their risks and disclosing them to the shareholders so that the shareholders can discipline the banks.
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Mar 17, 2023 07:19
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Red posted:Does the S&P 500 re-classification usually coincide with a bump or a drop? If you're talking about First Republic its down 40% in the past hour or so
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Mar 20, 2023 17:28
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That article has strong old man yells at cloud energy. Also some real weird takes like > When yields get to 0%, [the Fed] buys bonds at superficial prices in order to fund the Treasury, and generate profits for their owners (the banks) How exactly did they make money on these "0%" yielding bonds? Answer: 0% actually means like 2% but as an 80s guy thats basically zero > [My money market] yielded .01% for six years until 2022. On a $100,000 investment I earned $10 per year. Not sure where he found a money market that paid 0.01% from 2016-2022, including the period of time when the fed funds rate was above 2%. I suspect he's also exaggerating here, but it makes it hard to take him seriously. The dude has been an investment manager for half a century, if he made 0.01% for 6 years it was a choice, not because there was literally no better options available to him. > [rant about ending the gold standard] lol
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Apr 22, 2023 01:07
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Cathie and the ARK crew are back with their always insane TSLA forecasts: https://ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-tesla-price-target-2027/ From todays price of $165, their price target 2027 is... $2000, a CAGR of 70%. The bear case is $1400! The whole thing is worth a read for a laugh, but here is their main table of very realistic expectations 
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Apr 23, 2023 16:56
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Elephanthead posted:Yeah but how many come with self crashing technology? And free Twitter. Pssh, its like a couple patches away from being capable of $600B/yr in robotaxi revenue ARK's stupid valuation gives a ~100% chance Tesla will have an autonomous robotaxi fleet by 2027 and a double digit % chance of it happening by the end of this year. Yes, the year that ends 8 months from now
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Apr 24, 2023 00:54
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Amazon had a 45% earnings beat and basically followed meta today. Intel had a 72% beat, but only because they lost less money than expected. If there's a silver lining to their results it's that no delays were announced and they at least claim to still be on track with their aggressive node targets, including the Intel 4 stuff shipping this year, and the 3/2/1.8 stuff in 2024 & 2025.
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Apr 28, 2023 01:08
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Anyone ever buy individual corporate bonds? With 30-year yields on A rated companies over 5%, theres potentially a lot of money to be made in the next year or two if rates come down. Or, it could blow up in my face (though provided the company doesnt go bust, earning 5+% coupons for 30 years isnt the worst outcome).
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Apr 28, 2023 18:29
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Bremen posted:The new I-Bond fixed rate is apparently .9% (which is to say they pay .9% over inflation, which is likely to average out less than 5% but it's a lot safer than an A grade corporate bond). If you're looking for a long term bond that might be one to consider as well. I like I bonds and own them, but they are an entirely different asset class. For one, as non-marketable securities they will not increase in value if market interest rates come down. Buying 30 year bonds in like, Paypal or IBM or Intel seemed like a better question for the gambling thread. I dont think I would want to hold any of those long term.
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Apr 28, 2023 20:13
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Here's a slice of what I'm looking at. They are all callable, but only 6 months before maturity
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Apr 28, 2023 20:43
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ranbo das posted:Checked the filing on the IBM one Hmm interesting. Where did you find those notes? Here's what I see in Vanguard on the call details for the IBM bond:  It certainly doesnt seem to indicate there that they could call at any point before 2052, but I am not experienced in buying corporates
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Apr 28, 2023 20:59
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Or are you talking about the make whole part? My understanding is that a make whole call would require them to pay out *all* of the future coupons, not just the par value.
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Apr 28, 2023 21:01
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ranbo das posted:The actual EDGAR filing for the notes issued. Oof, yeah that is complicated (only a lawyer would define a year as having 360 days). But, assuming interest rates do come down in the next couple years, the make whole call doesnt seem like the worst outcome - you are essentially being compensated for the fact that you wouldn't be able to reinvest at as high a rate as the original bond. I see that maybe that would be less valuable than just assuming the market price will soar and cashing in that way. Probably wont do it, but thanks for the thoughts.
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Apr 28, 2023 21:22
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Bremen posted:4.5% is on the same level, if not below, what you'd get for treasury bills right now. And a lot of those banks are probably offering a similar interest rate on deposits as well. Ahahaha, no. Banks still pay pretty crap rates on deposits. Here's the average rate paid for savings accounts and interest checking accounts:   Just because you can find 5% CDs doesn't mean most deposits are earning anything close to that.
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May 1, 2023 17:04
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:wasn't that guys whole schtick minting spacs? here's a short summary i found online from a few days ago: quote:Virgin Galactic Holdings SPCE was originally IPOA. Since its first trade in 2019, the space plane company stock is down 70%, opening May 2 at about $3.50/share. A sister company, Virgin Orbit, has collapsed, and Galactic is still conducting pre-revenue tests.
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May 8, 2023 22:13
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Femtosecond posted:Seagate STX seems like a nice beaten down stock to have in the portfolio if I'm betting that tech rides back some in the future, though I'm unsure if we're at a good entry point yet. If you look at the last two years as Pandemic_Bubble.jpeg that should be ignored, then maybe the price is still too high. yikes 
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May 9, 2023 16:45
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:A several-levels-below-the-top R&D engineer at Intel is in our wine club and is literally telling people to quit their jobs there, sell all their stock, GTFO, etc (disclaimer: INTC bagholder) I assume that's at least partially anger about the salary/bonus cuts? Especially if she didn't quit herself. The alternative is real close to material non-public information. Intel is quarter after quarter publicly positioning themselves as having a lot of irons in the fire - most notably reclaiming process leadership and opening up fabs to third parties.
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May 10, 2023 00:10
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Hadlock posted:Is there any discussion on setting up options to be traded on a ten year basis? Furthest out I've seen is like, something like 24 months currently I think that's basically a contract for differences (CFD)? They are illegal in the US since they are super risky and pretty much sold only by very unscrupulous folks. The crypto world also loves perpetual futures which are similarly super high risk and super sketchy.
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May 23, 2023 23:43
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Hadlock posted:In the last month I've had recruiters from four different companies who are going to actually automate the call center industry using AI someone somewhere is making the horny version of this and is going to make a lot of money
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May 24, 2023 03:24
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FistEnergy posted:I started positions in DG and TGT today. Too big a discount to pass them up; they're not going anywhere. Assuming TGT isn't going back to it's covid era highs any time soon, what's the 2023 price target here? 150? 160?
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Jun 1, 2023 23:00
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| # ¿ May 22, 2024 04:34 |
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Red posted:If the courts rule in favor of the SEC, how are stockholders reimbursed? If you're talking about Coinbase, there are fairly extensive disclosures in their SEC filings that say basically "the tokens we sell might be securities and if they are, it would be bad for business"
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Jun 6, 2023 22:11
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