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T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

tinstaach posted:

Tyler Bertuzzi is going on injured reserve after taking a shot off his hand for the second time this season. Someone do something with this, it's late and I'm too tired

Well we know he hasn't taken any shots in the arm at least.

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T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
https://twitter.com/CJTDevil/status/1598513138323935232

Bahl can be a valuable NHL d-man and I hope the Devils don't gently caress it up to carry around Brendan Smith for the next two years

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
They'll be fine even if their production drops because their conference is poo poo and they defend quite well. They're absolutely gonna make the playoffs.

They're doing all of this in spite of pretty poor goaltending still, too. They're just a good team in a bad conference.

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
https://twitter.com/NBCSPhilly/status/1599243267241279489

lol

He's right though, the Flyers played great and should have won.

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

Call Your Grandma posted:

there's a lot of good up and coming teams in canada and they might just surprise you if you pay attention to them instead of toronto

[citation needed]

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
https://twitter.com/SadClubCommish/status/1600146929522192385

[nicholson nod]

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
Every time I think Detroit is going into the inevitable tank they win a few. Maybe the Rangers and Panthers are gonna truly and really gently caress up


e: Devils own, etc, but I don't trust this so called goaltending thing, feels like they're giving up a little too much lately and I think it will cost them a bit coming up against tougher teams

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
So how is this a goal?

https://www.nhl.com/video/crosby-nets-back-to-back-goals/t-335529202/c-14110956

But this isn't?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOSo4U5ZVVA&t=66s


e: I guess the Crosby was ruled goal on the ice, and the Bastian one wasn't. But they're still both in the crease and the goalie initiates contact (although the Bastian one is a little more 50/50 about that). Bastian is also deeper in the crease.

T-Bone fucked around with this message at 03:50 on Dec 7, 2022

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

mcmagic posted:

I thought Vanacek was great tonight...

oh yeah I just mean I don't like the chances they're giving up and I'm sure the goaltending will come back down to Earth at some point, probably against Carolina/Boston/etc when they play them later this month, I'm just looking for poo poo to complain about tbh I mean what the gently caress this team is unreal

Nemec/Hughes/Casey playing sick great lately too :stare:

Arseny Gritsyuk starting to heat up in the K a bit too

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
Yeah I think the Bastian one is a little easier to see but not to pull out my "has been playing goalie since I was five years old" card but that contact would absolutely impede my ability to make a save there

e: I think you could maybe argue that he probably doesn't make the save anyway given the angle of Crosby's tip and I think that's their real rationale for letting it stand, because there's clearly contact preventing his pad from extending how he wants it to.

That and it was a goal on the ice.

T-Bone fucked around with this message at 06:10 on Dec 7, 2022

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

ThinkTank posted:

New Jersey are this year's Panthers, which means they're going to get stomped by Tampa in the playoffs and make a bunch of insane moves in response that crushes all the momentum and cohesion they had. Quote me in six months.

ThinkTank posted:

New Jersey are this year's Panthers, which means they're going to get stomped by Tampa in the playoffs and make a bunch of insane moves in response that crushes all the momentum and cohesion they had. Quote me in six months.

Yes to the first although it won't be Tampa but some other cretinous East team (hopefully not the Rangers and Schrödinger's Elbow).

But yeah I think they're too early in their new car phase to do anything too crazy, then again they didn't extend Bratt but at least that was before .827 god mode



I think the most realistic insane things they could do are not extend Bratt / trade Nemec-Casey for like a rental or some stupid poo poo. Although Fitzgerald's comments about these topics are encouraging.

THAT being said, I think it will be interesting next year and I wouldn't be surprised if they're worse if they lose some portion of Graves/Severson/Wood/Tatar and are relying more heavily on young players like Luke Hughes/Nemec/Holtz/Bahl.




e: The Montreal media keeps trying to push that the Devils want Josh Anderson because there was interest in the offseason before the Palat signing and everything else but that's just Montreal media, I'm 99% sure the Devils will stay the gently caress away from that garbage contract (do NOT quote this).

Assuming everyone is healthy I absolutely do see them adding a middle six forward at the deadline, probably not blockbuster variety unless the Meier price isn't insane (it will be). But some middle sixer with grit who can score a little would be fine.

T-Bone fucked around with this message at 17:29 on Dec 7, 2022

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
It's a weird situation, we haven't seen it in a long time where the league's best player or near best player is on such a consistently mediocre team. Ovi and Jumbo fell short for a long time in their primes but they had great teams.

You've probably got to go back to Jagr after Lemieux retired for the first time, but he had already won a couple of Cups and peaced the gently caress out of there shortly after (after the miracle Mario 01 season sadly enough).



I feel like I made this same post last year and then he somehow carried them even harder. Difficult to see him having a better playoffs than he did last year and they still got smoked by the Avs. The West does look more open this year though.

T-Bone fucked around with this message at 23:23 on Dec 7, 2022

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
Jack Hughes with the Pavel Bure 26:13 TOI tonight including a 7 minute shift at the end of the game where the Devils had their goalie pulled early and had the puck in the Isles end for pretty much all 7 minutes (one goal, but a couple of crossbars short alas).

Was very amusing to watch

e: Also Romanov KOed Wood on a very Stevensesque east-west hit. Miles is gonna be in the dark room for a bit

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1601418109008547840

Pretty sure Kovalev's was longer but not "recorded" but it was pretty funny to watch this, he didn't even look particularly gassed given that the Devils had the puck the entire time

T-Bone fucked around with this message at 14:13 on Dec 10, 2022

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

kill me now posted:

Except the brief bit where he had to make two empty net shot blocks on the Islanders

yeah that squibber he blocked was exhausting

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
Shesterkin definitely statues more than any other goalie in the league but it rules

e: will rule more if he Patrick Roy muffs it in the playoffs

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
Pretty amazed he made it all the way to Seattle.

Isn't wing depth kind of Seattle things too? Like I'm sure it's a good pickup but man there are some way shallower winger groups out there (even amongst playoff contenders who passed).

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
It's really funny that he's going to the one place where he probably isn't an upgrade over any of their team's wingers.

e: well maybe Tanev, but they aren't gonna scratch him


I'm guessing for a lot of the teams in front of Seattle it ended up being a cap squeeze thing.








also who is this person and why are they right

https://twitter.com/lassialanen/status/1600894757785387014

T-Bone fucked around with this message at 21:17 on Dec 12, 2022

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

mcmagic posted:

I hope they think they have a real opportunity this season and add to the team.

Depends on what the asks are, they shouldn't even think about moving Casey/Nemec/Luke Hughes and I'm hesitant to give up on Holtz given his AHL production.

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1602797178472337411

feels like it's probably inevitable that they'll go to 20/32 with a 3 game play-in even if Bettman seems to be against it

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v587ca15X80

good lord

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
You can hit to the head, it's not strictly illegal.

quote:

48.1 Illegal Check to the Head – A hit resulting in contact with an
opponent’s head where the head was the main point of contact and
such contact to the head was avoidable is not permitted.
In determining whether contact with an opponent's head was
avoidable, the circumstances of the hit including the following shall be
considered:

(i) Whether the player attempted to hit squarely through the
opponent’s body and the head was not "picked" as a result of poor
timing, poor angle of approach, or unnecessary extension of the
body upward or outward.

(ii) Whether the opponent put himself in a vulnerable position by
assuming a posture that made head contact on an otherwise full
body check unavoidable.

(iii) Whether the opponent materially changed the position of his body
or head immediately prior to or simultaneously with the hit in a way
that significantly contributed to the head contact.

The main by the book thing with that hit is whether it was "avoidable" -- like he could have hit him a different way to not brain him, and did Hronek put himself in that position.

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
The Devils are on a 120 point pace, good lord. Hart stood on his head, it happens.

Tatar has been one of the best 5v5 players in the league this year, he's absolutely a top 6 player. Zetterlund has been very good as well, although I agree that he's more suited for a bottom 6 role at this stage of his career (solved by Palat coming back).

Healthy I don't see any problems with:

Tatar-Hischier-Bratt
Palat-Hughes-Mercer
Sharongovich-Haula-Zetterlund
Wood-McLeod-Bastian

Maybe you add a bottom six player or two at the deadline for injury depth because Boqvist/Holtz haven't shown enough.

Jamwad Hilder posted:

The Devils are still a good team, and they'll probably be fine/a playoff team, but this is pretty much what I expected would happen once they got into this part of December when I was looking at their schedule. They beat a lot of bottom feeders in October and November. I did not think they'd lose to Philly though.

Looking ahead, their March looks rough too. 16 games in 31 days and they play Colorado, Vegas, Toronto, Carolina, Tampa Bay (x3 in six days!), Florida, Minnesota, among others.

They're on pace for 120 points and lead the league in expected GF%, saying they'll "probably" be fine and make the playoffs is frankly ridiculous.

Games they've lost since the streak ended:








The fact is they were playing at an unsustainable pace (much like the Bruins are) for any team south of the 77 Canadiens. They've been outplayed in 4 games all season (win against the Rangers, win against the Capitals, second win against the Flames, loss against the Islanders).


e: Like the only reason they're not the heavy heavy favorites to win the division is because the Canes exist and are also really good. They're still extremely likely to have home ice, the favorite to win the division, and have a very reasonable shot at winning the Presidents once Boston starts their regression.


https://twitter.com/ryannovo62/status/1603801326563082257

poo poo like this is a stupid overreaction though, Severson is so much better than the both of them. Good to see that Devils fans brain damage regarding Severson is seeping into management

T-Bone fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Dec 16, 2022

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
Seattle needs to get better goaltending but they'll fine once they start playing against the dreck in the West again. The only team that looks capable of threatening their playoff spot is Calgary, and there aren't exactly any world beaters ahead of them.



Now the real interesting team lately is Washington, they are looking more and more capable of making a run. The top 7 in the East look like a lock to me, but Detroit is probably done (I wouldn't be surprised if Florida/Ottawa/Buffalo are in front of them by end of Jan) and it's starting to look more like Islanders/Washington/Florida for that last spot.

That poor start and the Kuemper injury might be too much for the Caps ultimately but they look dangerous.

Eric the Mauve posted:

Calling it now, Ruff will be fired with the Devils in 6th place in late January

SAS needs a 'toxx it bitch' button on every post

T-Bone fucked around with this message at 20:13 on Dec 16, 2022

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

Jhet posted:

There aren't goalies enough to go around who can put up .910 s% or higher. The distribution between this year and last is down, and having two goalies sub .890 is not helping. But I still maintain that Hakstol is terrible to goalies regardless. You could take Igor and give him to Hakstol and that .930 s% would be down to under .910 in 10 games. I wouldn't be surprised if Grubauer was suddenly a .910 goalie again with a different boss behind the bench.

Better goalies than Grubauer have turned south at 30. It's more likely that he's never a good starter again. It's funny though that you mention Shesterkin who has dropped 15 points with the same coach and team just this year. Goalie variance is very real.

Hakstol has been an above average 5v5 coach defensively his entire NHL career -- 13th league average xGA over his tenure with the Flyers (9th actual) and even last year Seattle was 11th in xGA.

There's a lot of consternation in this thread about him (and coaches in general) but a lot of it I find to be conjecture. I absolutely do think coaches can lose a room (motivationally and tactically) and that NHL teams are generally right to try coaching changes to jolt their teams. I don't think there are many (or have been many) NHL coaches that provide extreme negative or positive value on their own (outside of maybe my avatar and a few others). Certainly not compared to what you can do with your roster management.

Pungry posted:

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, the Panthers are not going to make the playoffs.

As weird as that offseason was for a 120 point team, and as mediocre as their start has been, I'd still bet on them making it right now if they keep their 5v5 play up. The last team to miss the playoffs with those kinds of 5v5 #s was the 2016-2017 Kings, it's very rare.

T-Bone fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Dec 16, 2022

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

I think basically the whole of the top 6 of the Metro and the 4th of the Atlantic will probably come down to injuries/luck. I would put the tiers as:

NJ/CAR
PIT/NYR
NYI/WSH
FLA/DET/BUF

if any key player goes down for any stretch for any of those teams, it's going to be bad and will probably lead to them missing.

The bottom teams you mean?

I think there's basically no chance Carolina and New Jersey miss. The Rangers and Penguins I'd put at like 80-85% locks at this point.

Not that the Athletic is the be all or end all but I tend to agree with most of their model's takes atm:



I'd have the Rangers as a higher % (would probably bump down the Panthers/Islanders/Caps a bit as a result) and the Flames lower (bumping up LA/SEA) but that's about it.

T-Bone fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Dec 16, 2022

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

Eric the Mauve posted:

rex has been over it in fine detail but Hakstol's system is practically designed to make his goalies look bad and feel bad. If you take the models at their word then he's got nearly a decade now of good defensive teams always being let down by their lovely goaltenders.

The only place his goaltenders let him down in Philly was on the PK.

5v5 they actually outperformed their xGA (sometimes significantly, like in his first season).

But yeah I find most of what rex posts on coaching to be conjecture, so not surprising.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

I'm not sure Hakstol is a good defensive coach so much as he's a coach that has his teams grind and slow games down.

This is absolutely a hallmark of a solid defensive coach. Not every team has the personnel to play high octane offense with suppression like the Bruins and Devils are this year. I would probably agree that Hakstol isn't the best coach for a team that wants to score a lot, but I also haven't seen him with that kind of roster (the Flyers had been a bottom 15 team in scoring the previous three years before Hakstol got there for instance).

T-Bone fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Dec 16, 2022

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

Jhet posted:

Coaches definitely lose a room, but with Hakstol it's not that here. For me it's down to how they breakout and the rotation in the o-zone. You can have a xGA of 2nd right now, but if your actual GA/G has you sitting in 20th, you can't just blame the goalies which is what a lot of people do. (Last years was 4th xGA, but 24th actual GA/G). They're playing better in the o-zone this year which is nice to see, but defensively they've been mostly the same because that's the system. Borgen-Soucy are typically a lot better at making those decisions to jump into play with support, but the other pairs are not so good with the decision making. You could change who's playing, but that doesn't solve the problem of the system expecting them to jump fast up ice, or the system wanting them to frequently shoot from the points. Making adjustments to the system will change that. Hakstol has shown that he's stuck with his system, and I don't expect him to change it at this point.

So what other options are there? They've shown they're not changing the d-zone system. The first pairing is as big a problem in that system as the third pairing. You can't change all of the players, and Philly had the same issues and that's all different players. So it's down to it being a coaching problem. I wouldn't suggest really watching a lot of tape on it, it's not worth the time unless you really want to dig into the Kraken for some reason. But the players are still bought into the system. The play fast break hockey and frequently fly the zone early to try to score on the transition. Even with the win streak and Jones playing relatively well, he's under .890 for the year. They'll just keep getting punished for their D-zone structure/breakouts until it changes.

You're not going to see any kind of major system change (and certainly not mid season) from just about any coach in the NHL. There are adjustments, sure, but if they want a huge overhaul it's going to be a coaching change. If Seattle's GA continues to heavily lag behind its xGA (and 5v5 historically it didn't for his Flyers teams) and they're in danger of missing, then sure, fire him, but I don't see any evidence that he's not capable of getting that team to the playoffs.

Levitate posted:

it's kind of a bullshit un-quantifiable thing but rangers seem to have found some of the resilience that carried them through last year but was missing this year (especially in November)

some of that is timely goaltending and some of it is just not getting frustrated and imploding when things go poorly

Yeah honestly they do feel like this when you watch their games, who knows how much it matters but they seem pretty unflappable

T-Bone fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Dec 16, 2022

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
If I had a hot unsubstantiated take on coaching it would be that nearly every coach in the NHL is pretty competent tactically and there's relatively little variance, but motivation and making your team believe in the system/themselves is masssssive (well at least relatively, it still comes down to the roster and usage). I don't think most of the bumps that come from coaching changes have anything to do with systems, but can mainly be attributed to motivation/buy in from the players (and conversely, that's why you see dropoff and the carousel start again for most coaches a few seasons later).

T-Bone fucked around with this message at 21:41 on Dec 16, 2022

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
Cool that Casey made it, I was thinking they might not carry him and Hutson. That D can fuckin scoot

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
it's not even remotely dirty he's just pushing forward low like centers do all the time and unfortunately he catches Barkov awkwardly


the 1000 crosschecks after the whistle and late hits that the Panthers gave to Hischier for the rest of the game were dirty though

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

it's going to be really gross and destroy any goodwill the Devils have built up this season if it turns out McLeod was one of the five and they knew he was being investigated, awful poo poo

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
They're just getting PDOed on this streak. Another game they should be winning tonight but they can't finish and they're not getting saves.

poo poo happens, like how many teams are outshooting the Canes 27-13 on the road through two.

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

fawning deference posted:

This is my position too, although at some point you've got to get past PDO and finish chances and get some wins. It's frustrating that they've lost six in a row right when the Canes/Pens/Rangers caught fire and now they are second in the division despite a 21-2 run.

If they continue to play like this, they're going to be a 100+ point team and I think that's clear. Even when they lose, they run into insane goaltending or get snakebitten on finishing chances, but when you thoroughly outplay teams like this game in and game out, including teams like the Hurricanes on the road, you're a real good team.

Yeah they need to turn it around sooner than later but there's no real reason to panic yet. Getting Bastian and Palat back would be real nice though.

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
Jiricek and Nemec looking pretty solid in the A so far: https://twitter.com/Thibaud_Chatel/status/1602685777233731585

Nemec doesn't turn 19 until February. Really can't wait to see him and Luke in New Jersey (honestly they could use them both right about now if Marino/Graves are out for any length of time).

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

fawning deference posted:

Marino and Graves week to week. Let's hope NJ gets some wins...

Palat practicing !

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

fawning deference posted:

I disagree because they're still soundly outplaying teams over and over and over and over

It will even out, wouldn't be surprised if they go on another big winning streak when they start finishing again. Getting Palat and Bastian back soon would be really nice.

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
I believe the Devils are the only team since 2009 to miss the playoffs with an expected GF% of 55% or better (which, incredibly, they did twice --- 2013 and 2014) so somehow cratering with a 59% would be extremely on brand.

Style points for doing it the exact opposite way of the endless cycle to point shot Jagr-DeBoer Devils.

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
https://twitter.com/mattdonders/status/1608493480137101315

If they keep playing how they're playing, they'll break out of this, and most likely break out of it in a big way. The issue is if it gets into their heads and they start trying to play a different way, but we haven't seen that and I don't expect to see that, given the success they've had with their style of play.

Being out Bastian/Palat/Marino/Graves is lovely though, not team killing, but lovely.

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T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
The Devils don't have bad shooters though outside of like Haula. They're actually all mostly average - above average (or even good in some cases). It's just a run of really bad unsustainable shooting luck mixed with poor goaltending.

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