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The winner in all this playoff setup bullshit is Tampa 'cause if not for the stupid divisional breakdown they'd be dragged into the muck of the Metro as well. Sure they have a few games in hand, but way less pressure having to even consider the possibility of competing against Metro teams and keep an eye on the Wings or Buffalo.
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Jan 1, 2023 23:46
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They're basically on par with New Jersey having played an easier schedule. My point was they have the luxury to not even have to consider having their position threatened because of the dumbass divisional playoff vs the absolute slog the Metro is going to be.
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Jan 2, 2023 02:57
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Bob remains bad, Knight is league average and no better, Florida thinned their depth for better top end, their special teams have gotten worse, and Paul Maurice is somewhere between a non-factor that doesn't improve the sum of his teams parts or is actively detrimental.
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Jan 2, 2023 04:51
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Rain is usually a much bigger problem. The game at Heinz field had some hilarious puddles that the puck would get stuck in and they rotated the teams every 10 minutes and would broom/squeegee as much water as possible. Of course we had the game in Tahoe with Philadelphia which was also crazy warm where we were treated with hours of Nascar loser being 'zanny' and trying to fill time.
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Jan 2, 2023 18:12
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Pens with the same annoying mistakes they've made all year and Sullivan's usages are being vexing and problematic.
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Jan 2, 2023 23:44
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Agreed with all of the above including Kapanen's ice time. Sullivan has been relying on 3 lines for nearly a week now. Rust played the most of any Penguin last night. Also I think Todd Reirden should be demoted to WBS and someone else take his place. Sullivan aside though I think Hextall needs to do something. Sullivan can't keep playing Dumoulin if he isn't there. So, for me, some of the team issues can be laid at the feet of management.
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Jan 3, 2023 23:59
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Pens were allegedly kicking the tires on Toews earlier this year. Would prefer not. Same for Kane. I think the better question, though, is what new ownership wants. Kind of forgot about that particular change in the Pens org and whether or not they trust Burkxtall to make these decisions vs conservative and stand pat. Either way would prefer an improvement on the left side of the defense... which is a tall ask considering what is available and a high quality 3rd liner.
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Jan 5, 2023 02:26
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achillesforever6 posted:Meanwhile the Pens have lost 4 straight The Pens are bad and missing their top 2 right handed d men isn't helping. Mike Sullivan deciding he's going to play Ty Smith 25 minutes a night isn't either.
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Jan 6, 2023 14:39
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Ditto on Carolina. They create a zillion ok to bad chances which the vast majority of playoff team contenders have goalies that can deal with them. Then Carolina gets into coin flip situations with high dangers where their goaltending wilts and they lose.
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Jan 6, 2023 16:08
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Eric the Mauve posted:Yeah it's really great. I haven't turned on him . I just think his usages have really sucked this year. Obviously he hasn't been helped by the players provided to him either nor has management recognized they need to take those players away from him.
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Jan 8, 2023 04:28
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Chad Sexington posted:He's had every opportunity, dude just coasts most of the time. Anthony Mantha has 23 points of which 21 are 5v5. Thus far at 2.0 pts/60 Mantha is scoring about at his career average. Previous years at 5v5 in Washington Mantha produced 2.4 (last year) and .9 in his first year. With all situations Mantha has produced 2.3, 2.5, and 1.9 pts/60. Of course all of this is a slight slide from his career year in '19/20 of 2.5 pts/60 5v5 and 2.8 pts/60 all situations. Hockey-Ref's model says Mantha is an xG positive player for 2 of his 3 year with last year being roughly even. Moving to Natural-Stat Mantha has 48% actual goals for and a 53% xGF split. This is on the back of a .900 sv% while he is on the ice which is 3rd worst on the Caps behind Milano and Conor Brown. At a 55% split Mantha generates an excellent share of high dangers. With 2 points per 60 at 5v5 Mantha out produces Kuznetzov, Hathaway, Strome, Protas, Eller, Oshie, and Johansson. Anthony is roughly tied with Sheary and a bit behind Dowd in pts/60 production. Suffice to say Mantha seems to be exactly the same player he always has been with Detroit and his production seems fine  . With people getting healthy he'll likely be relegated down the depth chart which is unfortunate for him because he out produces a number of older vets. The other thing is Mantha is 4th in ice time at even strength for the Capitals but barely plays on the powerplay (55 seconds a game) and doesn't PK at all so he sees the ice for only 15 minutes a night.
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Jan 9, 2023 04:21
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DancingMachine posted:Eeli Tolvanen has 5 points in 5 games with the Kraken. His +/- is 5 as well. Why did Nashville not play him and cut him loose? Because Eeli didn't shoot 30% in Nashville and the Preds didn't shoot 18% when he was on the ice. Also somewhat poor management.
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Jan 10, 2023 14:40
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Also their big game changer piece of poo poo from last year has been injured since early November. As of reports today he could be back in about 10 days so we'll see if that changes their fortunes some. That said... Seattle returned to getting good enough goaltending and shooting 2%+ league average, Calgary is loser pointing their way forward, LA has a fairly healthy lead despite more games played, and don't look now, but Nashville and Colorado are breathing down Edmonton's necks with 3 and 4 games in hand. It's going to take a huge effort and some major collapses for Edmonton to make the playoffs right now.
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Jan 10, 2023 19:26
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Calgary is going to loser point their way into the playoffs and it's dumb.
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Jan 11, 2023 04:38
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No it's about laughing at Edmonton too
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Jan 11, 2023 15:28
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You are. Provorov is a solid top pairing defenseman and when the Flyers eventually trade him the team that gets him will be very happy.
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Jan 11, 2023 15:48
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Laine is a bust and fraud as hell so lol at you.
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Jan 11, 2023 15:53
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Jamwad Hilder posted:You think the guy with the 2nd most goals and 3rd most points from his draft class is a bust? I think the guy that was drafted 2nd overall as a player you can build your entire franchise around is a bust yes. The only bigger bust at #2 in recent memory is Nolan Patrick.
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Jan 11, 2023 16:56
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I would say their should be concerns about Kakko's development and lack of scoring. Ryan Murray has had 100 million injuries has he not? I would agree he also didn't reach his draft pedigree. Byfield is played 12 minutes a night with Arian Kempe and Gabriel Vilardi. I'm sure we'll be having the same conversation about Shane Wright very soon. The thing with with Laine is that he has never pushed on and shown growth/improvement since his first 2 years in the league. He's the same limited player he's always been. He's about to hit 25 and he's making 8.7 per to have 4 points on the powerplay this year. For a supposed elite powerplay player that's pedestrian at best. Like Laine is/was billed as an elite level goal scorer and uh his team 30th in the league for goals scored. Laine had his best season since the sophomore one last year and hey his team was 14th.
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Jan 11, 2023 17:48
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Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:Averaging 35 goals/82 games doesn't seem like a bust to me regardless of the rest. Laine definitely has issues but if he's a bust then anyone that isn't a HOF level player at 1-2 is a bust which is nonsense. Scoring 35 or more is a feat that Laine has only done twice in oh his first two years. The theoretical rate of his potential scoring in year 5 of disappointment post those first 2 years doesn't count for much when the player doesn't actually do the thing you play him for. All the while at 5v5 Laine has been on the ice for 13 more goals against than for. Even for 2 of the 3 years that Laine has been in Columbus, when you include his powerplay contributions, he's a net negative.
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Jan 11, 2023 18:18
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OldSenileGuy posted:I also had this reaction, so I looked him up on Capfriendly and saw that he's a 23-year old center who's a former 2nd round pick that's signed for the next two years at league minimum and had decent numbers in the AHL last year, though he has 0 points through 22 games with Vegas this year and pretty bad fancy stats numbers. I'm not sure if I'd call 11 points in 39 AHL games 'decent' with the caveat I have no idea how good or bad the Henderson Silver Knights are. Either way this dude has 100 AHL games with 19 total points to show for it. He's a career 35-40% xG player (depending on whose model you want to use). I'm going to go with this player is quite bad.
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Jan 12, 2023 00:06
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That's the Metro baby.
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Jan 12, 2023 04:03
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I was looking at the very bottom of Hockey-ref which ends on the 2020-2021 year so I will have to be more mindful of that when I'm rushing to poo poo post.
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Jan 12, 2023 17:12
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Mage_Boy posted:https://twitter.com/penguins/status/1613551715806072833?t=l3xifnd-wv18REYuC8gYxg&s=19 Oh boy who is hurt now or are we going to pretend that Fedun is better than Friedman's wild ride?
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Jan 12, 2023 18:58
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Buffalo is tied with Florida. Are behind both Detroit and the Islanders. That's before you even talk about overtaking Washington or Pittsburgh. Where winning every game in hand still leaves the Sabres 2 points short of overtaking the Caps. Buffalo is closer to Montreal as the 2nd worst team in the east than they are to Pittsburgh in the WC2 spot. Better luck next year unless Florida fires Maurice.
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Jan 13, 2023 05:11
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How about you skip that and instead, if you feel appropriate, donate to a given charity or organization for the WC2 team.
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Jan 13, 2023 15:31
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You're doing a lot of assuming that there wasn't a whole bunch of incompetence and pressure put on the player to do what the team wanted/needed and not what was best for the players best interest IMO.
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Jan 14, 2023 05:20
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The Dirty Burger posted:Let me check the deserve-to-win-o-meter and get back to you Ah an arbitrary metric that's based upon...oh expected goals. Full circle baby awoooooooo
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Jan 14, 2023 19:54
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Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:Expected goals models are broken Team with 60% goals for has....wait for it....58% expected goals for 5v5. Team has 57% goals for all situations and 56% expected goals for. Yes yes. Extremely broken and inaccurate yes.
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Jan 14, 2023 19:57
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crashlanding posted:Yeah but how are they in grit/60? 18th with 8:50 in PIM per game  Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:Should we mention all the teams where it isn't even close? I'm not talking about the devils specifically. Wow it's like you don't understand how expected goals work at all....and how to apply it. Maybe the problem is that and not the formulation. Would you like another 5 pages worth of  to skip over and miss how it's supposed to work?
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Jan 15, 2023 00:34
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I'm still extremely annoyed the Pens dumped McCann and kept Kapanen yes.
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Jan 15, 2023 16:44
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Ginette Reno posted:Carter has at least produced in the playoffs while here, which is something McCann struggled with. But Carter's underlying numbers have still sucked in the playoffs so that's probably as much luck as anything. Upgrade on LD and a 3rd liner that drives play and doesn't get caved in or super luck and upgrade the top 6 to bump Rust down. Pray the goaltending holds up.
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Jan 15, 2023 21:49
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DJExile posted:https://twitter.com/AliMurji1/status/1615014378247720960 This looks like it's a knockoff of a warm up jersey for make a wish foundation.
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Jan 16, 2023 17:09
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Koopa Kid posted:So Vancouver has shadow hired/fired their coaching situation, made it public knowledge but won’t announce it, and of all people to hire they chose Rick Tocchet? Am I getting all that right? This might come as a shock to you, but GM JR is actually a gigantic raging rear end in a top hat to his employees. But if he trades for Kapanen I will say nice things about him again.
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Jan 16, 2023 22:06
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Buffalo never flirted with the wild card spot and even with a loser point in *every game they had in hand* which was 4 iirc they would still be 2 points behind the Isles and the Pens. As it stands Buffalo is flirting with Philadelphia and Detroit in vaguely passable lower mid table mediocrity.
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Jan 17, 2023 19:07
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th3t00t posted:To a team that hasn't made the playoffs in 12 years, coming within 4 points with 4 games in hand in January is "flirting with a playoff spot", even though they immediately struck out and wasted the games in hand. Where would I rate the Penguins - huge breath and 20,000 words later . Nah. I'd rate the Penguins as disappointing followed by unbelievably inconsistent. The nuts and bolts on that we're skipping here. You want to talk points though? Ok. Happy to do that. Buffalo has 16 regulation wins. That is 1 less regulation win than the Flyers. You want to talk about OT points? Buffalo has 4 OT wins and 1 shootout win to go along with 2 OT losses. That's 7 OT games vs Pittsburgh's 8. Where the Pens have 6 losses. The problem isn't Buffalo not getting enough OTLs the problem is Buffalo doesn't win enough games period. Here's what a wrote a few days ago on the 13th: rex rabidorum vires posted:Buffalo is tied with Florida. Are behind both Detroit and the Islanders. That's before you even talk about overtaking Washington or Pittsburgh. Where winning every game in hand still leaves the Sabres 2 points short of overtaking the Caps. Buffalo is closer to Montreal as the 2nd worst team in the east than they are to Pittsburgh in the WC2 spot. Better luck next year unless Florida fires Maurice. In that time Buffalo has played 2 and won 1. Pens played 3 and won 1. Islanders played 2 and gained 3 points. Washington played 2 won 1. Florida played 2 won 2. Good news you're a little further from Montreal. Bad news you're still closer to them (5 points) than Pittsburgh or Washington (6 points). Since the start of the New Year Buffalo ranks 13th of the 16 teams in the East in a pile with Pittsburgh, Montreal, Islanders, and Carolina. Washington has 7pts in 7 games putting them mid-table for 2023. on December 31st of 2022 Buffalo had 34 games played with 38 points and were 6 points with 3 games in hand on NYR/NYI and 2 games in hand on the Pens. At no point were Buffalo '4 points with 4 games in hand'. Washington with 39 games played had a 9 point lead on December 31st. That's as close as Buffalo got. Which is to say....they didn't. Buffalo is a fun team to watch. They have, allegedly, a very good prospect pool and if they can develop that they might be competitive. However, Buffalo needs at least one team in the Atlantic to implode *and* Florida to continue to employ Paul Maurice to even sniff at their division. After that they need Pittsburgh and/or Washington to fall of their respective cliffs and not have improvements from Detroit or the Isles. Everything went Buffalo's way for the first half of the year...still a ways short.
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Jan 17, 2023 21:02
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Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:https://twitter.com/GMillerTSN/status/1615760220197617692 Pens over the Isles. Pittsburgh and Washington go back and forth on if they get a Metro team or Atlantic side. On the West Side the moment Seattle stops shooting 10.1% 5v5 and 12.3% a full 2.3% higher than NHL average at 5v5 and all situations well they're leaning on .888 goaltending and a 69% PK. The only thing that has 'changed' with this team vs last year is that. Any dip or regression and they're cooked. LAK has Seattle like goaltending and league average shooting. If they can find some saves I believe in them a lot more than Seattle. Edmonton will get Kane back and score their way into the top 3. Calgary are chugging along, but have no finish and their goaltending is iffy. Fix either and they grind their way into a spot. Colorado has been crazy injured this year. If they can get some health back they'll fly up the standings, but they need to catch NBA JAM ON FIRE though to make it into the top 3 of their division. I think it's something like this Vegas Edmonton LAK Dallas Minny Winnipeg WC1 Colorado WC2 Calgary That's right I'm taking Dave Hakstol to go back to college collapse.
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Jan 19, 2023 04:23
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I've watched enough to know they play Daryl Sutter hockey and aren't looking very good doing it. Despite that Daryl Sutter hockey generally gets results of a positive nature. If they address the Kylington sized hole in their D core I think they're better than fine.
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Jan 19, 2023 05:05
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DancingMachine posted:Tox bet: Seattle shoots at or better than 11% in the second half to finish the year still above 11.5% on the year. Loser pays $20 to the charity of the winner's choice. So I've mulled this over a bit. I don't like betting nor do I necessarily root for teams/people to fail...I just like to write lots about what I think people might see/not see over-look or something different/interesting. Likely this rarely the case, but it also lets me keep, somewhat, in practice with writing in general. What I will do, because I do write a lot and talk a lot of stupid poo poo is this - No Bet. I, Rex will toxx for - $20 to a chosen Seattle cause for the following: 1. Kraken finish the year with 11.5% shooting on the year 2. Seattle makes the playoffs.
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Jan 19, 2023 21:09
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Jhet posted:This is a trade with Vancouver we're talking about, so let's not get ahead of ourselves. I'd bet someone has the number for the guys in Pittsburgh too. Dumba is a right hander and it would be exceedingly surprising, to me, if the Pens were aiming to acquiring him. Letang/Petry/Rutta, while having their issues, is decent enough. It's the left side of Pettersson, PoJ, Dumoulin, and Smith that is kind of the problem. If everyone is healthy I would actually like to see Dumo press boxed and Smith stay in the lineup. This is very unlikely to occur imo.
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Jan 19, 2023 21:12
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