Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
  • Post
  • Reply
WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

We are back at it.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

The situation at bakhmut appears to be grim. The bridge is leading to the east of town have been destroyed as Ukraine continues to move troops to the west side of town. Now there's a pretty large water crossing on the east side and I would surmise that Russia is going to close in the pincers instead of going off frontal assault on this but that could definitely be wrong.

Solov almost got killed in vuhledar. This is important because he's one of Putin's leading propaganda mouthpieces. So for him to literally almost get shelled is quite interesting in comparison to Biden rolling up to Kyiv in a train and hanging out. Aswell as Zelensky visiting the Frontlines with no reprisal.

I doubt that the ukrainians were specifically targeting him.


In other news and kadyrov apparently is having a crisis of the kidneys. People are claiming that he has been poisoned. As the kidneys backup once the liver starts to fail it could be other things.

With this poisoning we could see a reconcentration of power however this may not be by Putin exactly but by other elements in the Russian government who are trying to solidify their grasp on the future post Putin Russia.

More time will tell.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

At least we have a thread to post in. Which is a pretty serious change from the previous answer. Can we just loving collectively do the right thing and follow the rules? I'm sure I'm going to be probated at some point for too much detail in an analysis. I'll use that opportunity to be more editorial and move on.

Jesus.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Lol. Companies have to buy their own air defense systems?

What's next will they have to buy their own conscripts to defend their stores/warehouses? This is loving insanity.


What is going to be like Russian Prada puts out an ad for air defense operators?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

CommieGIR is a star here? Hell yeah.


Anyway. What I think maybe wild is what if supplies are being diverted from the front lines to support these businesses that have to have their own armies I guess? And by armies I mean like you know 100 people and air defense weapon.

Well they have not specifically discussed needing actual soldiers running around other than air defense operators, I would go back to my earlier points that the mobilized soldiers coming back to Russia are going to do pretty bad things. Especially robbing and pillaging The villages and small cities that border ukraine. Especially if there's a general collapse of the front that causes them all to run away without any orders etc. They could become small gangs that roam the countryside causing the cities infrastructure to be overwhelmed by internal refugees. I don't think this is completely off base if somebody believes otherwise please do so. But it does seem like it's the next natural step in the progression I mean we've already seen articles about huge upticks in gun violence etc.

Russia as it stands as in a pretty spotty position in terms of domestic policy especially if there are people stealing and robbing constantly and nowhere is safe anymore. Then what ends up happening is the security apparatus has to get a lot more deadly and again we're talking about Russia here so it's already pretty loving bad. But things can always get worse.

It's still too early but outwardly we are seeing Russia start to break under the weight of trying to reunify the Empire.

And what are the signs of this that I see?

The constant burning of Russian industry

The states monopoly on defense being commercialized.

Mobiks at the front being so shattered from PTSD they don't care who gets them whether that's the ukrainians or Russians. (This is a side effect from living under constant intense bombing. We can see this in kursk as well as Stalingrad as the morale of both sides was so low that nobody even cared if they died because they just wanted it to end)

Other mobiks literally surrendering in mass.

Putin's allies dropping dead constantly and kadryovs recent poisoning. I kind of looked to the last season of the sopranos. I know that's probably a little silly to compare to a show but seeing all of Tony's allies being assassinated and all of his people being told to either join the other Crews or get the gently caress out. That I think is the most close to comparable to what we're seeing on a huge scale in Russia and a lot deadlier. Putin's allies are being chopped up and his allies are also doing a lot of chopping. We're not sure who's doing it because it's just so goddamn intricate it's insane and impossible to try to determine which side is killing who and if it's internal struggle or mafia warfare. Power is being shifted and pushed out. Putin had a lot of people he could lean on to go enforce his method but now as most of Russia military is on Ukraine, he can't just call up a colonel to go deal with a mess or have the gangs allied with him recruit soldiers to do their bidding.

Now maybe and quite possibly without any prompting Putin has decided that kadyrov is a threat to the status quo. Eradicating war heroes or War promoters is a typical thing to do in an authoritarian State because they can garner the support of the men especially in the Chechen republic.

What we are seeing is consolidation and conflict based on who gets to run Russia after Putin is dead. It's coming fast and I don't mean fast as in months but it's a few years away most likely unless you know he takes a turn for the worst. But a few years is not a lot of time.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

We're going to take Russian land and make mexico pay for it :911:

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

And why wouldn't they? Right? I mean bakhmut is a crater. They've killed an insane amount of people and Russia has lost a huge amount of their spearhead. As these offensives go while mobiks die, regular troops are getting destroyed aswell. Prigohzin sn't going to get his Nazi doom fortress.

Bakhmut may be cool and all but the rest of the front is being drained to keep this offensive going. And Russia will feel the affect of that.

Remember every group that they get is less moralized than the group before. And what this really means is that they are completely and utterly bottom the barrel for what's defending the rest of the front lines that are unexpected to be counter-attacked.

I think it would be interesting if they replicated what they did in lysychansk as in zeroed artillery shattering units that enter the city proper and then swerve in with more counter assaults.

That could potentially trap a huge sum of people in a very bad situation. Creeping barrages behind you and ukrainians Infront of you shooting. It's a meat grinder in the making.


WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 04:57 on Mar 6, 2023

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honor. I believe it is peace for our time... Go home and get a nice quiet sleep.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

fatherboxx posted:

https://twitter.com/skazal_on/status/1632839925195325443

New deranged Russian flag dropped

"NOVORUSSIA
to each what he deserves"

Ahem uh well :goonsay: the preFIDIOIS WEST HAS clearly photoshopped the flag. You see it's actually a square but they make it look like a swastika

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

These spies are such poo poo lol

Like any time they suspect someone they just have to walk in the front room and see if they have a gigantic Russian flag and Putin bust


Yeah the execution of the prisoner was actually done by poles. They demanded he yell "praise be to the Polish Annexation of Ukraine" and they shot him down when he yelled Slava Ukraine

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Britons are so poor they are eating pigeon!!!!

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Oscar Wilde Bunch posted:

It would be surreal at this point if Wagner/Russia culminates this whole offensive and then right at the end they just can't finish, or if gliding JDAMS is just the linchpin that halts their advance. I imagine 1000-3000lb bombs can do significantly more work than 155 arty rounds can.

Yeah but these dudes aren't just standing around in a huge clill.

I mean inadvertantly a 3000LB bomb creates a rifle pit which can be good for defense. Better off hitting an ammo depot or a front cq

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Let's remember how many times a king or Lord would hire mercenaries, not pay them, then have their hold or city burned to the ground by the unpaid mercs.


The fourth crusade is a great example of this

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Western media outlets reporting the Nord stream was blown up by the us. I don't think we should take their word seriously I surmise it was Luxembourg.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Xavier Bettel hid the facts

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

EasilyConfused posted:

Anyone able to give a summary of what's going on in Georgia? Those few tweets are the first I've heard of anything happening.

Georgians are upset about the "foreign agent" registration law that just passed.

It's very similar to Russia's foreign agent law

Here's Johnny harris talking about it as part of a larger discussion. It's worth a listen for anyone interested in Ukraine / Russia in general.

https://youtu.be/u550Si9rNv4

To understand the law that Georgia is upset about you must understand the Russian law and that's why I'm bringing it up.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 23:45 on Mar 7, 2023

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Comstar posted:

Is that because the Russian tanks are pretty much stationary?

Russian tank warfare hasn't changed much since gorzny v1.

Run up in a line the. Try to space out at the contact line. If you blow up the front tank and the rear tank the tanks end up crunching into each other trying to all move out into a line. Some go forward some try to go back etc there isn't much coordination. Russia has never had a great and vast NCO corp to make soldiers not idiots. All of these issues are part that and also part of being an army under a paranoid authoritarian State.

Success is hampered by fear of backstabbing and jealousy.

Tank warfare requires strong command and control and a lot of field ingenuity based on local areas topography ala best placement, best location for attack, synchronized infantry assaults to give tanks breathing room. As well as strike craft and now drone Intel.

Combine arms warfare is NOT for an army with no ncos to speak of.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Id like to see Russia absolutely go ape poo poo if finland claimed dynasty to the Roman Empire. It would be just so good..even jokingly. They'd go nuts. You'd see the Tsarism out on full display. Like you do with Russia's military investments.

Something I had said in the beginning of the war is that if we saw Russians digging trenches they have completely lost. I feel like that is more true than ever. Has Russia has had to solidify their defenses they've done so haphazardly with men that are completely and utterly shattered.

You have all the experienced people being sent into pointless assaults that result in their death and every single one of them is a brain drain on the Russian military. We talked a week or so ago. Right before the thread was closed, about colonels leading loving platoons. That's how stretched the Russian army is in terms of brain power.

Zone, what's interesting about your quote is the part where they say you can counter the pmcs with large brigade / regiments because those pmcs can't field unit of those size at an equal experience level. It's a few shepherd dogs (Wagner) to a ton of sheep. They have to herd then into these mass attacks. Fortunately this does not work in defense, in defense everyone has to be pretty individually able to make the right decision quickly. That's just not happening because the training level is run up dig a hole and start shooting people, most don't get to the last step and die digging a hole.


Sad poo poo. I feel for the Russian population, they're propagandized to hell and are being used for imperialist ains that will end with their deaths and shattered families, not the riches they believe they are owed.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 07:53 on Mar 8, 2023

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Ah the secret Russian army.

The mole children will tunnel through to bakhmut and rise from the surface to stop the ukrianian bio weapons factories

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

The super secret Russian army is about to come out in force. To make the most patriotic combat we've given them 1938 Soviet uniforms and KV-1s

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Look you see once you get regiments labeled in 4 figures, aka the 1004th mobilized, you know Russia's got an elite Force just waiting. You see if we were weak like America we would only Mark divisions in the 100s

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Warbadger posted:

"According to Ivan Drozdov, for the most part, the Russian army preferred to indiscriminately destroy areas where Circassians resided. In September 1862, after attacking a Circassian village and seeing some of its inhabitants flee into the forest, General Yevdokimov bombarded that forest for six hours straight and ordered his men to kill every living thing, he then set the forest on fire to make sure no survivors are left."

Sounds about right.

technically not a war crime because the Geneva convention wasn't created until 1864

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

The Putin we see making GBS threads himself is a clone. The real Putin has yet to reveal himself

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

All right so we have two opposing viewpoints here which is really interesting we have the viewpoint that the Russian soldiers are not getting ammo because Wagner is getting ammo and we have the viewpoint that Wagner's not getting ammo because the other Russian soldiers aren't getting ammo. This in itself is a very stiff intentional engineering of divisiveness. While this also could be hiding the fact that ammo shortages are everywhere which I don't doubt. It's also putting the soldiers against wagner. Which would make it easier if Wagner steps out of line to then tell the soldiers to go ahead and you know start the cleansing.

Wagner was seen as some kind of Russian superhero up until like 2 or 3 weeks ago. Now kadyrov is suffering from poisoning.

We can't see all of the details and we have to investigate this like a detective, we only can see the results of the actions that are clear. Putin maybe focusing on what any ruler does at the end of his tenure as a human being which is to selectively shift the routes of power. Military big men are exactly what Putin fears the most. He fears people like prigohzin and deconstructs the narrative of their heroism.

The truth is there's ammo shortages everywhere, The narrative being portrayed is one that causes divisiveness amongst the military.

As the people running the military currently actually have soldiers underneath them that expect to be commanded, that's a threat to Putin. Putin enjoyed when his military could be used as low level mafia soldiers, once they turn into a professional fighting force (that's a stretch but my definition for this statement is that they're fighting a war) the better traits of certain military leaders were on display as they had to be.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

HonorableTB posted:

Kyiv mayor Klitschko reports that 15% of people in the capital are without power:

https://twitter.com/Vitaliy_Klychko/status/1633697181528911873?s=20

Rocket hit a thermal plant

:nws: Burning building in the distance, no bodies or anything like that :nws:

https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/status/1633700279387316224?s=20

15% without power is extremely low. Like embarrassing. Not to say it's GOOD to cripple the power but this is mediocre for the amount of missiles fired off.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Butterfly Valley posted:

On the plus side, a coalition of 6 opposition parties came together to announce their unity candidate to run against him in the presidential election, and said candidate is currently polling at 55% vs Erdoğan's 45, so hopefully that turd can finally get flushed soon

:speculate:

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Authorities in Transnistria, breakaway region of Moldova, claim they've foiled assassination attempt against local leader. Police detained former resident of Tiraspol, claimed he was recruited and trained by SBU in Odesa. In a plot Land Rover with 8 kgs of RDX explosive should be detonated in central Tiraspol

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

If they can break the back of Wagner it'll disprove a lot of US big heads thought on the situation. Which Ukraine has done. Multiple times.

And a front wide collapse is probably unlilely unless Ukraine snaps sieversonetsk or melitopol while the Russians are still assaulting bakhmut.

Time will tell.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

70 million embryo carryable bayonets

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Neddy Seagoon posted:

Lol, China's measuring Russian territory for curtains. Totally normal thing for an ally nation to do when your nation's doing fine internally and your military's winning your war.

Oh yes another War crime gigolo prediction turns out to be accurate. Which is the thought that China will start projecting soft power into Russia's far East. The next piece of the puzzle to be placed is. When western Russia starts halting shipments of things past the Urals and instead regional commanders stockpile up necessary supplies for their own regions. They're already doing the stockpiling part but I think it will get much worse especially for the side of Russia that completely relies on rail transport

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Tai posted:

Don't they just use rockets from aircraft as arty basically. Point nose in the air a few miles back and fire and gently caress off?

Yes. Air defense on the ukrianian side is too rich to risk it. They get too close? Dead.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

HonorableTB posted:

I can't wait to see what the reasoning behind Bakhmut was on the Ukrainian side once this is all over. Even for a force depletion attritional defensive battle, the time to go seems to be right now.

By forcing an annihilation battle in bakhmut the ukrainians have the ability to predict where and when the ammo will land at certain depots. Even though Russia moves them around they have to keep them at a certain closeness to the front to ensure ready supply especially in the case of counter attacks.

So having that ability allows them to drain out more than just manpower in bakhmut. Remember the news we heard about Wagner complaining about ammo and the Russians also complaining about ammo being thinly veiled as 'anger towards Wagner'? Yeah that was a partial sign of what's happening. SO MUCH has been dedicated to bakhmut because the Russians see it as valuable. That value has to be agreed upon to allow for the deceit. The US has been claiming the town was nothing more than symbolic and pointless. But maybe that's the point of it all. Russia is blowing through tremendous levels of ammo to keep it going and that ammo may start to become short.

In the event of counter-attacks in the South Southeast and North we may see serious ammo conditions like we see in bakhmut where soldiers are only running around with one or two magazines worth of ammunition. And no helmets no body armor versus the Ukrainian mechanized forces. That isn't a fight they are going to want to engage in.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Smoothbored Russian military intelligentsia

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

1050 Russians dead yesterday. Worst single day death toll of the war.

It's going to get higher. And the territorial gains are negligible at best

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Apparently Ukraine is doing a counterattack near bakhmut. Not sure of displacement.

edit by Toxic Mental - Please be more judicious in your video posting. There's very clearly dead bodies in this one.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Somebody fucked around with this message at 18:38 on Mar 13, 2023

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Sorry about posting violence gore earlier. I thought it was just a tweet and didn't have a bloody battlefield video on it.

Thanks for removing it toxic I noticed you left it at first then deleted it.

In terms of what I've been reading on this thread as well as Reddit it does look like Ukraine may be planning for a front wide attack, I don't think this will be a front-wide walk forward and push but more shaping attacks along the entire front as well as testing the resolve of the Russian defenders. I mean we're hearing about ammo shortages from the Russians themselves so this definitely will have a serious effect especially if it's a bunch of scared Russians who shoot their guns into nothingness while ukrainians are half a mile away already.

That's what's great about having extremely untrained troops, they are ammo wasters more than anything. They're going to shoot things that aren't there they're going to shoot noises that are already gone they're going to expend a lot more ammunition out of fear than a well-disciplined soldier would.

Partly this is a gorilla tactic partly it's military tactic. Testing the defenses and defensive response of the entire front gives you an idea of where to land the counter attacks and which is the weakest. I mean they're probably timing this down to the number of minutes it takes for Russia to respond with the first shot and then the first artillery round because that'll tell you distance, enemy communication ability, and training all in one. Especially how the shots are landing ala the ark of the round if they're landing at random or in fields it shows you that these crews don't have the expected assault positions to be dialed in. Or they don't have pre-designated written down coordinates for certain areas and know which one they are. Since Ukraine has great drone coverage it also gives you the location or operating area of the artillery battery which is good for strikecraft and high Mars to then focus on in the initial attack. Enemy infantry can do pretty well against mechanized as long as there is an artillery backbone to support them. However without that and without hella ammo Russia's probably going to have a really bad time especially if there are artillery gets dropped within the first few minutes to the point where they may just immediately retreat.

All in all this is a very interesting strategy they've done it a few times and then launch counter attacks right after so I would surmise that could occur. If you know an area is weak the enemy probably knows it's week two or they should at least. And if so that they may reinforce the weaker areas and lighten the load on the stronger areas in anticipation of your assault. Napoleon called this defeat in detail. Russia knows well enough how Napoleon operates to try and mitigate this by balancing out the front with a few thousand troops that could be bounced around to temporarily shore the area up.

Now after writing this it's funny to think that I probably am giving them the benefit of the doubt to even think this way but I would think a basic military would do this, which probably means they don't but let's not ignore the possibility.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 02:27 on Mar 14, 2023

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Remember infantry without will always be snuffed out
The without ranges from artillery, strike craft, to armor, mechanized vehicles, ammo.

Russia is sending people in with very very little ammo. There's not much you can do when a group of ukrainians pull up in an IFV you fire off a mag and a half before they've even opened the door. Then you are royally hosed. Without artillery barrages to push back the attackers, the spearhead remains strong and mobile stopping only for fuel shits and regrouping. The TDF rolls in and secures the area with the most cowardly defenders in it. We saw how much poo poo Russia left in kherson and in Kharkiv more so Kharkiv. But that was a major loss esp in artillery.

Now it could be that the piles we saw in Kharkiv won't be found until melitopol because of simply, they don't have those anymore. Not to say they can't continue to arty constantly, but the barrages are what really takes a toll on your supply. The arty has to be firing all day at breakneck pace to cope with major counter attacks.

It's grim for the Russian population.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

What nafk needs to do is grow up and put on some jackboots like tough Russian propagandists.

Preferrably jackboots with shunts in them to make you appear taller.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Maybe we should send a carrier group into the black Sea to ensure safety precautions are taken in the area

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

StrangersInTheNight posted:

poo poo they can wheel Steven Segal in an office chair, load him up on a giant slingshot and that takes care of that

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply