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drk posted:Also in the news today: Cash pours into US money market funds as investors flee bank turmoil Always kinda boggled me that people with a lot of cash wouldn't be in at least a money market.
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Mar 17, 2023 05:27
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| # ¿ May 22, 2024 17:28 |
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If even the madoff "investors" can be made 100% whole, I'm pretty sure we can guarantee everyone. All the intervention in 2008 supposedly ended up making money. In a doomsday worse-than-2008 scenario, yes the wheels fall off, but the wheels would fall off anyways. And of course that means that there needs to be more regulation and oversight. Maybe banks that don't even allow cash accounts over a certain amount can pay (a lot) less in insurance fees. Scale your fees up with the amount of exposure you have. There is definitely a solution here. Saying "you aren't covered unless your deposits are in a bank big enough for us to care about" is just dumb as poo poo. The rest of the government has been pushing anti-trust for the last year+ (mostly ineptly as well), and this is going exactly against that. Just flailing around. I sincerely though this was all going to be over last friday at 8AM, but here we are more than a week later and things aren't really much better. Feels like we're just waiting to see which small banks are next.
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Mar 17, 2023 18:08
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The meeting might actually be contentious today, well as contentious as a fed meeting can get. These are their people getting smashed the last couple weeks. The minutes might be interesting. I think they do stick with the 25, just because "that's what we said we would do". Although I hope to God they are done. Everything is deflating or close to it, except shelter which is a lagging indicator. Having mortgages at 7% is making shelter pretty drat expensive too. Just sticking at these rates for a few months is going to cause enough pain. (Alright "everything is deflating" is an exaggeration, but outside of shelter components have been under control for nearly a year now).
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Mar 20, 2023 17:09
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It's unlikely that rates are higher in five years than they are now, but gotta evaluate what happens if they are. House will probably have lost value, you may have trouble refinancing, and the payments are going to go up.
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Mar 21, 2023 23:09
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I gotta admit, if I HAD to buy a house right now, I'd be tempted by an arm. I think I did one for my first house, wayyy back in the day when rates were even higher than now. Do the math though, and be realistic about your "risk of ruin" and what exactly that scenario would be if rates never come down to where you can refi into a fixed. It's potentially very bad.
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Mar 22, 2023 01:30
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ultrafilter posted:That's not even getting into disabilities, which is something where we don't have good data at all. https://archive.is/Nxs4W Of course since this article came out, I've seen a surge in "this is awesome, disabled people are finally being allowed into the workplace in increasing numbers!!!!" Uhh guys, I kinda don't think these are people who were disabled before and were suddenly able to find a jobby job.... I think these are people who were already employed, are now hosed up, and their job hasn't figured out how to shitcan them yet. edit - Here's the spin - https://archive.is/AeBuz "The Disabled Can Help Ease the Shortage of Workers" Baddog fucked around with this message at 20:30 on Mar 23, 2023 |
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Mar 23, 2023 20:27
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:.... i don't think there's ever been a time with two quarters of negative real GDP growth that the NBER didn't declare a recession, but there's actually no true rules Ehh, the first 2 quarters last year were negative.
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Apr 16, 2023 03:41
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Cyrano4747 posted:Post lunch thoughts: if you work for the Bureau of Engraving and Printing does that mean you're technically getting paid in kind? Btw, the tour of the BEP was pretty cool. Unfortunately looks like they don't offer them right now. https://www.bep.gov/visitor-centers
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Apr 19, 2023 19:37
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DNK posted:....In a more perfect world, they would also sue management for criminal negligence. Alas. Wasn't there a lot of noise about that with svb? we'll see. There is a shareholder case, but that's kinda par for the course. https://www.reuters.com/legal/silicon-valley-bank-parent-ceo-cfo-are-sued-by-shareholder-fraud-2023-03-13/
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May 1, 2023 17:10
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God forbid people start expecting actual raises again, the "wage spiral" will be the death of us!
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May 5, 2023 21:50
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Discendo Vox posted:
Hadlock, are you a secret agent of FABLE??
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May 17, 2023 05:48
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LanceHunter posted:For some extremely tenuous definition of "gets its due". Aside from being a barely coherent list of bullet points, even the article's own summary is just the biggest wet fart... I was going to say that I think its just mass media that bought into wages being the only driver in the "wage-price spiral", even though the theory is that price increases also drive wage inflation. The theory doesn't say anything about what is the bigger driver or anything, just that they drive each other. But I guess "grubby employees always asking for more money" is pretty well ensconced in our general culture. All the pressure seems to be to hold the line on wages, and not a lot of shaming the other direction. Making it your patriotic duty to not give anyone a raise this year, lol.
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May 23, 2023 16:36
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Leperflesh posted:
I had to check, S&P has maintained that downgrade, I thought they might have popped it back up at some point in the last 12 years. The fact that the "jewish space lasers" lady appears to be 2nd in command in the house of representatives makes things seem not nearly as guaranteed as they used to be. I'm wavering a bit here. 2011 went down to the day before treasury said that they would be out of money. This time it might actually go to the day of. Or they might even try to see if yellen is bluffing and can pull some more money out of her rear end. Btw, I don't think she has been definitive enough on the date. When she says "early june, maybe as early as June 1", I think some of these dumbasses interpret that as "we have until June 10 or 15 or so before something bad actually happens". I don't remember the treasury statements on the debt being as waffly in the past.
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May 25, 2023 06:57
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Hadlock posted:
Crazy, those are nice hotels. But I guess it's all a function of how much debt they were running (apparently a lot).
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Jun 6, 2023 02:39
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I wish I could make this the thread title.
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Jun 10, 2023 21:17
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Hadlock posted:(where I got self-owned by claiming inflation wouldn't hit 3%) I was just messing with you btw! But it was funny that headline cpi hit *exactly* 3 in July. PCE has some tough year-ago comps coming up here, as pmchem showed. But I think we're generally gonna follow that 0.2 line. Rates are well above any measure of inflation now, and that is supposed to be the standard, at least according to Twitter economists. Even though inflation peaked almost a year ago, 150 basis points back. But I'm getting more fearful of the always-just-about-to-hit recession. I thought the fed was gonna stop raising months ago, and would start dropping by now. But they seem hellbent on not even talking about dropping until something *really* breaks. Banks don't count apparently.
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Jul 17, 2023 05:24
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Lockback posted:Why would they feel pressure to drop rates right now? Employment is still sky high and inflation is (at best) barely under control. Because it's worse for everyone when they are always acting 6-12 months too late? To raise or lower. I understand there isn't too much pressure as far as their mandate. But the political pressure has to be ramping up with the election. If they keep rates restrictive "until something breaks", it's now likely to break at a very bad time for Biden and his Bidenomics.
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Jul 17, 2023 15:44
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Lockback posted:Why would you say the current rates are "restrictive"? They are not anywhere near unprecedented levels. They are at what they were at prior to the 08 crash and pretty much where they were for most of the 90s (and well below the 80s). The anomaly here is the sub-1% they were at for so long, I don't think it's a goal or anything to do whatever you can to get back there. The fomc have been describing these levels as restrictive, it's not just an internet rando pulling that word out of his rear end  . In the simplest terms, rates are restrictive when the numbers to get most things going "just don't work" right now. You can see this in plenty of data. The basket of "leading economic indicators" has been scarily negative for awhile now - https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators Manufacturing pmi is terrible: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-manufacturing-sector-weakest-nearly-three-years-march-ism-2023-04-03/ In the past, expectations for inflation (and future revenue growth) were significantly higher, so business plans could swallow 7,8,9,10%+ loans.
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Jul 17, 2023 16:56
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:Comparing purchase costs per square foot to monthly rents doesn’t make much sense to me. Price per square foot for condo purchases would be a more direct comparison point - looks like in SF that’s right around $1k/sq ft, and for Phoenix it’s about $300/sq ft. Have to be able to get a metric shitload of renovations done for < 800/sqft in san fran. I guess the concern might be getting it permitted in san fran for living space? Are these towers full of asbestos and poo poo?
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Aug 2, 2023 20:36
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Relevant article to the office conversion discussion, nothing too new although the NYC developer uses 500 base and 500 for renovations as the hypothetical ballpark example. https://archive.is/2023.08.04-13564...s-is-so-complex
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Aug 5, 2023 14:13
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Mantle posted:The easiest way is to go there and consume Argentinean-produced goods and services. A side effect of the high inflation is economic instability, lowering the value of the peso, so the exchange rate for USD is very good. Patagonia sounds pretty drat nice.
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Aug 8, 2023 22:54
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Hadlock posted:So two questions Try plotting it against the s&p... Or even just a 2% compound interest line. Hadlock posted:
Money supply has tightened. Business investment is way down, since it has to meet a much higher bar for expected returns now.
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Aug 28, 2023 14:50
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pseudanonymous posted:the velocity of housing sale is way down as people can’t afford to buy or sell. Really thought things were going to crack this spring and prices would come down considerably, but people (at least in general) just seem to be staying put, and the scarcity of homes is holding prices up even with mortgages through the roof. Just feels unsustainable at these levels of mortgage rates. I remember having a discussion with someone about 18 months ago where "8% mortgages would break everything!" was discussed. But we're almost there now, and attitudes have all been adjusted. Lockback posted:This is impacting the M&A market too, which is adjusting but looks different than it did in early 2022. way different. venture capital still feels pretty lifeless as well. Maybe a tiny bit recovered from flatline.
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Aug 28, 2023 17:43
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LanceHunter posted:
Just anecdotally, I believe a lot of in-flight stuff gets shifted significantly just by downgrading trim and some materials. Houses from 600-800K become 400-600 pretty quickly. And I thought this new development north of me was going to be sort of medium-end, but they appear to now be throwing down 4 unit townhomes. Ton of apartment buildings going up as well (backed up by this chart), which aren't getting reflected in the housing starts. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ETOTALUSQ176N Complicated picture.
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Aug 28, 2023 19:56
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ultrafilter posted:Prices were lower as others have mentioned, but a lot of people also took variable rate mortgages so as to get relief if interest rates dropped. My first mortgage was an ARM but it was because the rate was much cheaper. The plan was always to refinance (or sell) in 5 years. Either into a 30 year if rates were then lower (likely), or into a new ARM.
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Oct 2, 2023 08:08
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How much of that pandemic relief was outright stolen again? I think I've seen 10% conservatively. Fraud and waste seems endemic throughout every system right now. If we had some decent leadership, think we could shake a half trillion (less than 10% of the annual 6.5T spend) out of the tree pretty easily.
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Oct 6, 2023 22:48
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I feel like there has been a ton of growth in the top end of income, and in certain localities a fair amount on the bottom. But man, it seems like the bog standard analyst (or whatever the equivalent is in your profession) has been around 70-100K for the past 20 years. I don't know how to pull the data for that though.
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Oct 7, 2023 17:24
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bob dobbs is dead posted:bwip.... bwip.... I appreciate this. Think comparing median household to case schiller is probably a pretty good set of data to reflect what most of us are feeling when we sense "buying a house is getting very expensive". Also, I had to look up 'ansatz'. Damnit, thought I had a good vocabulary (and a decent math background). Hadlock posted:We came pretty close to buying 11 acres up in the sierra with plans to get a starlink but in retrospect glad we didn't Eagle (colorado) having a costco alllllmost makes living up in the mountains off the grid palatable for my wife. Maybe if I find some cute "tiny home" instead of just throwing a double wide down. Baddog fucked around with this message at 19:06 on Oct 7, 2023 |
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Oct 7, 2023 19:04
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Leperflesh posted:oh god, yeah, government jobs are so badly paid There's something to be said for just massive job security and decent benefits. And ultrafilter said it!
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Oct 10, 2023 18:34
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Hadlock posted:
Kind of a derail, but most Costcos seem to be being a real pain in the rear end about checking the cards now to be sure it's actually you. Stop freeloading and get your own membership!
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Oct 13, 2023 21:37
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Given that market conditions have suddenly made bonds and CDs very attractive, its not that niche-y anymore! Gotta screen out callable debt if you are buying. Don't want the banks to scurry out from under you as soon as rates drop again.
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Oct 18, 2023 21:14
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ultrafilter posted:Municipal bonds are almost always callable but I don't think anyone recommends avoiding them in general. Ehh, I still think it is way more likely than not that rates are going to be lower (perhaps much lower) in a year or 2. So I'm interested in locking in getting paid at these rates for a decently long term. Do not want to get paid ~ a quarter more for a year and then those payments to go away as soon as rates drop.
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Oct 18, 2023 21:25
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LanceHunter posted:So at this point a 2023 recession is mathematically eliminated from possibility. I guess folks can start placing their bets on one happening in 2024. (I'm strongly leaning towards "no".) I just got a real bad feeling about another couple hikes incoming
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Oct 26, 2023 16:02
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Lockback posted:Really, really sounds like the right solution is to raise taxes. Yep, its insane that we're trying to manage this entire thing with one monetary lever, because the fiscal side is stuck on "wide loving open"
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Oct 26, 2023 19:47
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The issue *might* be that the US markets are still the by far best options in the world. So even as the Fed tightens the screws, money (and jobs) keep pouring in. Kind of a good problem to have, except for the inflation. I can say that startups have had a rough 2 years here. The money really dried up. Companies that *need* investment and financing to operate are facing very short runways. But apparently many many startups making GBS threads the bed hasn't really made a dent in employment or gdp.
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Oct 28, 2023 03:51
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hypnophant posted:still think we'll get another hike in december unless there's a strong movement in PCE between now and then. The last three months have been stuck at 3.4 and FOMC won't be happy sitting there forever Fedwatch has 20% hike in Dec, 26% by Jan. I'm with you though, I feel like the chance is significantly higher. We seem a bit stuck here. But I'm not feeling strongly enough to do much about it. Probably will keep nibbling on fixed income, because if we aren't at the top we are very likely close to it.
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Nov 1, 2023 21:20
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Lockback posted:A lot has happened in 18+ months since that was published. Ehh you can argue that middle class to upper middle techbros have been relatively overpaid compared to lower wage workers, but I don't think you can say that we've been getting showered with raises in the last 18 months. I'm pretty sure the graph is gonna still look pretty similar. Wife got a 2% raise, and her boss acted like it was mana from heaven.
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Nov 27, 2023 21:50
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I haven't worked in food logistics, but I know enough about supply chain to know that bar ran dun sounds pretty on point. Kind of the entire issue is that if you were trying to arbitrage this inequity in food prices by setting up your own little grocery store in podunk florida, kroger and/or walmart would just adjust and blow you out of the water, and then go back to higher prices. (and related to this discussion, the FTC shouldn't let the krogers/albertsons merger go through, but they are too distracted by "big tech" to pay attention to a real goddamn problem).
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Nov 28, 2023 22:58
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bob dobbs is dead posted:staring at the krogers annual reports for 5 mins says the accounting allocates the big delta to merchandising/transportation costs and not the debt service, sg&a or any of that other poo poo Ehhh I thought the discussion was on being able to charge way more in markets where this is little to no competition, not if transportation was the overall driver of increased costs across the entire krogers operation. Of course they are going to charge what each individual market will bear, right? Not cost+3% across the board. As a shareholder, I'd actually be a little upset if they were doing something as dumb as that. It's the government which is supposed to be ensuring that there isn't a monopoly on food anywhere.
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Nov 29, 2023 00:50
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| # ¿ May 22, 2024 17:28 |
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ultrafilter posted:I've spent some time working on algorithmic pricing and I can verify that collusion among pricing algorithms is a real concern. See here for a recent paper. Nice paper, thanks.
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Dec 12, 2023 00:17
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