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Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Ynglaur posted:

The US is changing to 6.8mm for infantry, scouts, combat engineers, and special forces, too. I have a bunch of thoughts on that new platform in the context of what we're learning in the War in Ukraine. I just need to find time to write it (and, honestly, I'm unsure if regulars itt would even be interested.)

I'd also be interested on the sources for your body ratios in urban combat! Any good reading recommendations?

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Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

OddObserver posted:

There is more than that... Another one seems to list what units are receiving what equipment and when.
(And there is also a mud map/calendar...). Both are pages seem to just be "secret", which seems odd in two different ways.

If a piece of information is included in a Secret report and is held on a Secret network, it becomes classified as Secret until it's re-vetted and released onto less secure networks.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Tigey posted:


I wonder if nowdays they ask if you are an online gamer/play games like War Thunder. The nature of what is seen as a security risk evolves over time.

I can say that for a plain-jane Secret clearance, they do not ask. It's pretty bog-standard "do you hold foreign accounts" or "do you personally know a foreign government official" style questions. Also, the ever present "do you want to overthrow the government of the United States" lol.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?
I was a M2 Bradley gunner back in 07-08. We used ERA during the surge. I never had mine go off from a hit but I saw a few in the boneyard that had.

I can tell you that once the ERA on one of the Bradleys goes off it does save the vehicle but there can be some shock damage to the systems. Saw commo and electronics detached in the turret and hull space. Also, the rail system that holds the blocks in place will most likely need to be replaced as the heat and pressure warp them.

The blocks slide down like Tetris pieces in the rail, weight about 50-100 pounds depending on if they are turret or hull blocks, and are fuckin impossible to remove if the rail holding them gets bent or blocked

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Moon Slayer posted:

I remember pictures coming out of Ukrainian infantry squads in spring/summer 2022 and people with military experience going "huh, usually a Western squad would have one person carrying an ATM system not ... everybody carrying two or three."

I'm honestly not sure what U.S. doctrine is these days on that. Back when I had knees and was light infantry, we had one AT-4 per fire team and one Javelin per squad. This was 2003-2006. Can't remember what we had when I was mechanized infantry (2007-2009) but we relied on the Bradleys to carry a lot of our poo poo too.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?
I wonder if Ukraine is using the MICLICs they got sent last year https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1589269985838632963?t=biSwxgwlDKO-1b9d-jLexw&s=19 .

Mechanical breaching with a plow SUCKS compared to explosive breaching. Then again, they may have already used them all up.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?
Breaching a mine/wire obstacle is brutal in the best of conditions. If an obstacle has proper overwatch from the defender it will be a meat grinder regardless of the quality of the attacking force. U.S. doctrine calls for multiple contingencies for each breach location with the expectation that if successful the last contingency will likely finish the job. The combat engineers performing the breaches are expected to be eliminated/Non-Mission Capable win or lose.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Warbadger posted:

The newer stuff is better on the protection side with better protection from shock and spall for the people inside, less chance of burning everyone alive if the fuel lights up, better escape options to improve the odds of escaping stricken vehicle, etc.

Both are similarly protected against light arms and vulnerable to heavier stuff.

Problem with MRAPs are that many models are top-heavy as gently caress. Also, just plain heavy as gently caress. A track can keep some agility with all that weight, MRAPs have better be on nice, solid, dry ground or you're gonna get stuck, roll over or left behind.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?
Speaking as a former sapper NCO and current engineer officer: I don't think western audiences are prepared to see the aftermath of a modern breaching operation. The sheer body count the sappers take in a breach is appalling. I hope to loving whatever that I never have to see one in real life because it will be brutal.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

alex314 posted:

Also sounds like something that gives a lot of useful marketable skills in mining, construction, excavation etc.

Military demo doesn't have much crossover to civilian demo. Not in my experience anyway. I've never been EOD so I don't know about them. Military demo is made to be very easy and the math to calculate the amount of Boom you need is super simple.

Construction and excavation that's transfers to civilian markets is absolutely a thing though. But that's less the realm of sappers in the U.S. Army. We have specific jobs for that.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

mlmp08 posted:

The biggest difference might be less the couple hours of actual breaching and more the corps and division-level shaping that takes place prior to the breach.

Here's a basic (and kind of old) breach 101 video they used for instruction of the breach at the US maneuver center.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ

This video is literally the standard the U.S. uses at its engineer school as an example of a textbook breach. The simulation was created based off an actual breach conducted in the 90's by an ABCT at the National Training Center. Some of our equipment has had some minor upgrades since then but it's essentially the same because no one wants to spend money upgrading engineer equipment when there's some sexy guns to develop.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Mr. Apollo posted:

How does the ABV place the lane markers? Are there little automated arms that come out and stick the lane markers into the ground?

edit - After some reading I see that it’s equipped with a Lane Marking System but I can’t find a description of how it works.

They are doohickeys on the sides near the back that shoot the stakes in. It's pretty unreliable though depending on the terrain. That's why a squad of dismounts are tasked with doing the lane marking as well.

Essentially it's a box that pneumatically drives the stakes in and it's fed from a hopper. But if the grounds hard or it hits a rock or the vehicle hits a bump or the winds too high or God hates you, it's going to fall over.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?
My reserve unit still actively use our M113s. We got notified to fix them up to "10-20" standard - basically as new as we could make them - to get shipped to Ukraine. I can't tell you the dollar value on the equipment but I can say that it's still kept up with.

The U.S. has something called a MEL, the maintenance expenditure limit. It calculates the age of the equipment and the cost to repair. Once a certain piece hits a dollar value threshold to maintain, it goes "beyond MEL" and is either disposed of or evacced to a depot for refurb.

My really roundabout point is, not all the equipment being sent is written off stuff that has been sitting in storage. It was actively used and now we have to replace it with something.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Cicero posted:

Most of it isn't that high end though. A lot of the stuff transferred has been because Western countries are in the middle of replacing them. Humvees and Maxxpros being (partially) replaced by JLTV's, F-16's being replaced by F-35's, M16's having gotten replaced by M4's and soon my M5's. And even stuff that isn't being replaced yet, like Bradley's and Abrams, are usually older reserve stock.

Even a lot of the most celebrated, impactful stuff like stingers and javelins aren't exactly cutting edge, even if it's still current in some sense. Most of the Leopards are 2A4's IIRC, which are a fairly old model.

I guess it does look advanced compared to much of what Russia is fielding, but that's kind of the point: their equipment is way less advanced that was often bragged about or believed.

For example, my understanding is that every front life infantryman in the US Army has been outfitted with night vision goggles for a number of years now -- like, multiple decades -- but for Russian infantry, hardly any of those to be seen.

Yeah, I used a PVS-14 monocle NVD way back in 2003 through 2013. Every single soldier used that. In 2013, we had a thermal optic to go along with it. In the reserves now and we are still using the 14s. I'm sure my active duty counterparts have better stuff now

Same with with Javelins. We carried one per squad and one AT-4 per fire team. Maxpros, Bradleys, humvees, M113s, M16s - Seeing everything from the last 20 years being used in an real shooting war is a Who's Who of my career.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Chalks posted:

If it is satellite camouflage designed to gently caress with AI it would be pretty novel.

Select all pictures of warships currently on fire

[I am not a robot]

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?
U.S. ADAM/RAAM mine dispersing shells are sometimes included as cluster munitions depending on whose reporting. U.S. doctrine mainly uses them for disruption of enemy attacks but they have an absolute shitload since they are utterly useless in COIN warfare. I could see them being sent.

The are programmable to self-detonate a set amount of time after dropping (~10% failure on self-detonate), each shell has 4 antitank mines and I think 12 anti personnel mines. The mines shoot little trip wires out in random directions and anything they disturbs them causes the mine to go off.

Seeing how innovative Ukraine has been, I can see them repurposing them to suit their needs.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

WarpedLichen posted:

They probably come in many forms but per the CNN interview with Biden, the ones being sent now are compatible with 155mm artillery.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/07/politics/joe-biden-cluster-munitions-ukraine/

Pretty vague on what's being sent but I think it points to what I said earlier. 155mm ADAM/RAAM scatterable mines.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Enjoy posted:

Ukraine is conducting offensive actions against dug-in infantry, they are not conducting defensive actions against massed armour in the open.

Scatterable mines are used in offensive operations to fix/turn/block an enemy counterattack or attempts to concentrate defense in an area. It's a gamble for the attacker though since they now have to deal with a minefield to continue their advance.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Dull Fork posted:

Oof yeah, good point. Let's hope those alternate ways of detecting ordinance have improved.

A lot of systems these days, hand held and vehicle mounted, use ground penetrating radar. It's effective against just about anything that has a cataloged signature. It's very exhausting to use though (or it was in 2013 when I last used one) since you have to be able to read the output and make a determination if something is dangerous or not. And doing that while sweating bullets looks for explosive hazards is always stressful as balls.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Xiahou Dun posted:

Exhausting as in “tedious and methodical”, “stressful”, “requiring great mental strain”, “physically taxing” or…? Like would you describe it as “exhausting” in general, even if it wasn’t UXO and just a bunch of potsherds?

GPR is one of those things I always wanted to gently caress around with. I’m like a three year old with bulldozers.

It's mentally and emotionally draining no matter the system. Hand helds add in physically draining as you actually carry the system. Vehicle mounted is easier on your body but just as bad as you have the sounds as well as a graphical read-out to decipher.

Is that "plk-wrrrrr" just a change in soil density or a bomb? Did the ground type change? Should I have recalibrated? Am I about to die? Is someone going to shoot me while I'm looking down as the ground? gently caress it's hot/cold out her. My forearm feels like it's going to go off. Will I gently caress up and the guy behind me step on something?

Just to clarify, this is still better than straight metal detectors. I used a Minehound for a handheld and a GPR-mounted Husky vehicle. Having used several older systems like a PSS-14 and GIZMO, they are great systems. It's just the job sucks.

Edit:\/\/ lol yeah, I imagine you have to be much more methodical than I ever had to be. Clearing a walk/driving path is a much different ballgame than clearing an area.

Dirt5o8 fucked around with this message at 03:10 on Jul 10, 2023

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Ynglaur posted:


:glomp: Third, crew and passengers
The original requirement called for 2-3 crew and 6-8 passengers. Both GLDS and Rheinmetall have settled on 2 crew and 6 passengers. The KF41 can carry 8 passengers, so I think this comes down to weight. This will have interesting implications for platoon structures: either the current three 9-soldier dismounted squads get smaller (or reduce to two squads), or more vehicles gets added to the platoon. Either way: 3x9=27 soldiers don't fit in 4x6=24 seats.

Another interesting option: the Army could go for 3 squads of 12 soldiers each. Personally I would love this option. I'm a big fan of the 12-person squad over the 9-person squad for dismounted operations, and I organized my scout platoon's dismounted patrols in Iraq in 2003 in this manner.

I do wonder if Ukrainian operations will inform how the US Army looks at its infantry squads. The US Marine Corps is changing their current squads, going from 3 fire teams of 4 Marines each to 3 fire teams of 3 Marines each and 3-Marine headquarters section (basically, it gets every squad a dedicated drone operator). As of [now, Army fire teams will continue to have 4 soldiers.

I've noticed a lot of footage from Ukraine shows infantry working in teams of 3, and some of the Russian tactical documents which have been captured show that as a team size. So it's possible that Ukraine and Russia are finding that 3 people in a team works well. If so, that could inform how the US sets up its mechanized infantry squads in the future.

Changing the make-up of squads and PLTs will only be difficult in official doctrine. Units regularly buttfuck doctrine and organize anyway they see fit.

My airborne infantry unit often rolled 12 deep too. 9 light and a heavy weapon team. Mechanized infantry we only kept the driver and gunner in the Bradley, everyone else dismounted to make 3 plussed up squads. As a sapper, we had 2 9-man squads but on missions went as 3 elements: Dismounts, security and IED search/clear. I did a brief stint with an MP company when I was a cadet. They rolled in 10-man squads, 3 fire teams and a squad leader. Being MPs, the teams were pretty drat light on firepower but I definitely liked the options it gave to a PL.

I don't believe manning will be an issue if it's to stuff bodies into new toys.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

MikeC posted:


:nms: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RU5dJjGYBPY&t=511s Do cigarette filters actually do a reasonable job at being ear protection?????? warning combat footage.

They will work in a pinch. In my younger and dumber days, I often forgot or lost my earplugs at the range. Lots of Privates had a pocket full of butts from either their own habit or because they were made to police call someone else's mess. It was better than going completely deaf anyway.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?
The U.S. army has made a strong push to regain basic Soldiering skills used in LSCO that atrophied during OIF/OEF. We train very hard on "analog" skills for the very real possiblity that the networks will go down. Map reading, battle tracking, multiple redundancy for communication are all prioritized. The gee-whiz technology is still common place in higher echelons and during war time deployments but during training it's generally sidelined to ensure Soldiers know how to do the basics.

I mean, yeah, we don't use drones and tablets as much at lower levels compared to other countries we train with but I think there could be a misunderstanding about the methodology the trainers are using. I also agree that the U.S. has not experienced LSCO in the current generation of Soldiers so there is a disconnect there as well.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Tuna-Fish posted:

Selfquote to add: I can't find the other presentation, but some high-up army guy explained the rationale somewhere, and beyond AA, they want ability to clear obstacles. By his telling, in Iraq they were perfectly happy with Bradley's ability to poke holes in things, but if someone piled up more than 10 bricks on a road, a Bradley had to either expend a tow, have someone dismount to clear it, or call up help from above because the 25mm HE was just anemic at moving earth. Therefore, 50mm with rounds that carry a very nice big HE charge.

If you could find it, I would be really interested in this guy's take on it. Moving dirt isn't really the Bradley's mission. I haven't worked with the engineer mod of it but it's pretty lightweight for that kind of work

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Ynglaur posted:

Yes. Ukrainian units seem to be pretty solid tactically: call it company-sized actions and smaller (~150 or fewer soldiers). Operations--which is all about sequencing and synchronizing actions by different units with different capabilities--is where they are struggling.

Think about it this way: ideally, a battalion assault would have these events happen at the right time. If they happen too early, or too late, it doesn't work:
  • Top off on supplies.
  • Recon teams launch drones.
  • Ground recon teams step off.
  • Artillery suppresses likely enemy OP locations.
  • EW disables enemy drones over a portion of the battlefield.
  • Support by fire companies move to assembly areas.
  • Indirect fires engage targets identified by recon.
  • Support by fire companies move to firing positions.
  • Recon teams identify breach lanes.
  • Assault company moves to assembly area.
  • Support by fire companies initiate suppression.
  • Smoke assets deployed.
  • An Su-24 with a Storm Shadow hits an enemy battalion command post.
  • Assault company leaves assembly area and begins assault.
  • Exploitation battalion moves into position to exploit a breach.
  • Counter-battery fire initiated.

This stuff is hard and takes battalion and brigade staffs with people who have literal years of experience learning and practicing. Many Ukrainian brigade and battalion staffs are full of former Soviet-style officers, or people with very little military background.

Additionally, U.S. officers spend a large portion of their formal military education learning to be cogs in a headquarters staff wargaming these steps. And they still gently caress it up badly, quite often. Synchronizing efforts from multiple specialist organizations is hard. Especially when you don't personally have experience with that specific skill or you're dealing with unfamiliar equipment.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Scratch Monkey posted:

Interesting note:



Do trench clearing teams really have a big flag on their backs while they move?

That's just a byproduct of the system they are using. Marks things for the viewer for ease of ID

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

BabyFur Denny posted:

The current level of military spending produced enough surplus hand-me-down equipment to keep Russia with its entire Soviet ERA equipment at bay.

Rather than building more tanks, we need to create even tighter alliance networks and make sure that the population of our democracies are secure enough in terms of housing, health and income, so that they all can stomach any potential economic isolation from China, Russia or other adversaries.

I think the biggest issue with alliance networks is if you are depending on one country too much when their political leadership shits itself. See the U.S. under Trump when he talked about leaving NATO. So yeah, build a strong alliance but make sure it can survive if a keystone country, providing a large percentage of the collective defense, drops the ball.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

BabyFur Denny posted:

Exactly. We need to put the money towards making peoples lives better, not tanks and planes, in order to prevent further drift towards fascism. We need healthy and secure democracies that are resistant to subversion, and confident in weathering the economic fallout of prolonged economic sanctions. We can't have more Hungarys in our alliances, especially not in an actual core country like UK, France or Germany. That is not something that can be fixed by having more bombs.

I agree with all of that but the need for bombs. They will unfortunately always be needed to defend those strong democracies. Countries like the U.S. could absolutely do both AND support our allies if we weren't so broke-brain.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

WarpedLichen posted:

The Ukrainians have issued an evacuation notice around Kupiansk.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kharkiv-oblast-city-planning-evacuation-as-russians-approach

But what struck me is that they are thinking of organizing school for the people who stay:

A war is just a weird absurd place to be.

This is just the saddest poo poo ever. Thinking of my 3-year old stuck in a warzone is a nightmare. Preschool...

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?
Doing my semi-annual Army Engineer Post for the thread. My background is 21 years in the U.S. Army, the last 15 as a combat engineer or engineer officer.

Clearing mines under fire is the ultimate nightmare for combat engineers, not to mention their commanders who have to plan and resource the operation. As mentioned a few times above: line charges, like the MICLIC, just push mines out of a narrow zone so forces can push thru a lane and secure the far side. Called a Breach, it assumes the attacking force is leaving the mines for someone else to deal with and just wants to get past them and to the enemy as quickly as possible.

Even explosively cleared lanes need to be proofed then marked safe. Those are all separate steps with different equipment or people. A vehicle with a plow or rollers follows the line charge and makes sure all the mines are detonated. You keep a few of those on standby in case the primary hits a mine mid-chasis or eats a missile. Then some dudes run out there and triple-check while laying out markers to show the safe route. Once done the attacking force rolls over the markers dead bodies and onto the objective.

This whole (U.S. focused) mission is supported by ungodly amounts of tanks in support by fire positions, artillery, CAS, attack aviation, etc.

Doing it piecemeal or on a budget like Ukraine is forced to do has no good solutions. There are some options available that I used back in 2013 that could still be around. There are robot mine clearing machines the size of a small bulldozer with flails to safely clear small lanes for foot traffic. There are also ground penetrating radar in several different forms - handheld, drone, etc - that improve detection. Thermal was huge for us in Afghanistan as well. Having enough to go around was always an issue.

A favorite trick we used in the palm groves of Iraq was controlled burns. That detonated lots of IEDs, mines and caches but was expensive as we had to coordinate and pay the landowner. Not sure how well that would work on an open grass field of mines. Not enough fuel concentration to heat the little bastards up, I'd guess.

Unfortunately, the tried and true method is a guy with a non-metallic rod and a grappling hook, slowly clearing a shoulder width path at 5-10 meters an hour.

Best option that I can see from the sidelines is Ukraine has to make a hard choice to move artillery from elsewhere to concentrate on where they want to breach. Artillery is the one spot you can't skimp on if you want through a minefield. You need suppression on defenders and their artillery as well as TONs of smoke. Like 1 smoke round for every HE going out. Skip tanks, jets, drones, just get more tubes and rockets to the location.

Just to caveat some stuff, there are some other options the U.S. has but since I have not seen it mentioned on the news or the internet, I won't talk about them here

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

The Lone Badger posted:

How deeply are mines usually buried?

Do you get mines with non-pressure triggers (magnetic anomaly etc) so they'll survive mine rollers undetonated until they get the exact right signal to detonate?

Generally, the clearing and proofing method will try to cover all your bases but the vast majority of them literally beat the poo poo out of the mine to induce detonation. Most mines are super cheap since they are made for massive deployment. Even raising the cost a little changes the cost factor to use them a lot.

The U.S. has some fancy mines that shoot out trip wires in several directions and they are programmed to destroy themselves after a maximum timeline (a few days). They don't need to be fancier to do their job.

The strategy behind (U.S.) mine doctrine is to use mines to supplement direct fire platforms placed behind it (tanks, dudes with gun, etc). This is supposed to be a temporary phase while your forces prepare an attack. We personally have nothing in the books that I know of that accounts for minefields on the scale Russia is using them. But also, it's a very small chance you'd run into a thermal or magnetic triggered mine. Majority will be simple tilt - rod or pressure plate.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

OzyMandrill posted:

There's an article I read recently interviewing sappers, and Russia is deploying anti personnel mines that use seismic footstep sensors, and shoot a charge up to chest height to explode razor shards 360 degrees up to 30m. Those are the most feared. POM3 I think they are called?

Is that in English? I'd love to read it. I haven't seen a breakdown of what mines are in use, I'm just working on the assumption that the massive, truck laid minefields are the standard surface-lay variety. Cheap and easy to produce

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?
Along with more tanks/IFVs/jets/artillery, I'd like to see Ukraine get more haul- and engineer-assets. LMTVs (cargo trucks), heavy equipment hauling trucks, troop carriers, bulldozers, backhoe loaders, etc.

They are arguably as important as weapon systems and act as force multipliers on the attack and defense.

Cargo movers seems obvious but are crazy versatile on the attack or defense. Fuel, ammo, food, and troops always need to be moved, concentrated or dispersed. Vehicles of all types are better hauled than moved under power due to the maintenance costs.

Bulldozers, like the D7, are an absolute workhorse. Digging fighting positions, mine/obstacle clearance and emplacement, setting up logistics hubs, making combat roads and trails. They do just about everything. Same with BHLs, graders, excavators.

poo poo, just engineers and their equipment in general. Just flood Ukraine with engineer assets and trained personnel.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Comstar posted:

Looks like they blew up a permanent radar station the Russian's built after 2014. Which probably put a VERY big hole in their air defence and I doubt they have many mobile stations around left to fill it.


Anything left in reserve would have already been committed.

Not doubting what you saw but do you have the source? That a pretty significant claim by Ukraine and a spot on assessment of a huge problem for Russia if true.

Edit: significant because mobile platforms are super useful and if planted on the high ground get very good coverage. They are limited by the power they can push into the air though since they can't generally link into a power grid. Stationary radar sites are crazy powerful detection assets and losing one can be like starting an avalanche if you can't plug the hole.

If true, Ukraine can essentially start chewing the air defenses up from that former coverage site outward, like an expanding bubble. It's a feedback loop of lost coverage, lose one, less detection, so you lose more.

(My source: worked closely with some Air Defense officers for an exercise. We got drunk and talked shop, this is what I remember. And yeah, we were all huge nerds to be talking about it)

Dirt5o8 fucked around with this message at 13:24 on Aug 24, 2023

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?
That mechanized breach video has been circulated in U.S. Army training schools for years. It is the ideal breach conditions and works under a lot of assumptions ("everything" superiority). Like someone else said, it's easy mode.

The biggest weakness of U.S. training, as noted by Ukrainian soldiers going through that training, is scale. That brigade running the exercise was the absolute largest formation that the national training centers can support at once.

So, one ABCT, a hand waved 100-200 meter deep mine field and a company to battalion sized OPFOR. Ukraine and Russia are now the leading experts in the world at actual formation-on-formation warfare.

My point is, I don't think we can use any equivalent from the last 40 years to compare with what's happening on the ground now. Especially considering the addition of newer technology like drones.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

Russia also isn’t really that much bigger than Ukraine in population. It’s about 3x, which is big but it’s not infinite hordes.

For comparison the US is about ten Canadas

Not falling for that one again. We remember 1812. Nice try

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Snowman_McK posted:

So glad to find this thread. It's been very difficult to find any clear sources on this conflict for the same reason it was hard to find clear answers on Covid.

Something to consider with regard to attrition is whether modern Russia has institutional resilience for it. Glantz spends quite a lot of time talking about this in 'When Titans Clashed' because, while you may have the warm bodies and you may even have the weapons, that's still not an army. The WW2 Soviet army had a remarkable institutional and organisational capacity. They had things like prebuilt armies, where it had units, designations, officers, NCOs and so on, it just needed bodies to be slotted into that pre-exisiting structure. It's never been the case of simply sweeping up however many people you can and shovelling them forward. Even if russia does fully mobilise (and it seems they may have to at some point) do they have the organisational capacity to do so in a useful way?

I think they fed most of their existing training cadre to the grinder last year. It's honestly surprising to me that the quality of the mobiks wasn't lower considering the stories about the lack of training infrastructure.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?
Sorry to bring us back to drones but w/r/t drone swarms I found an article regarding the difficulties inherent to the current state of them. The article is U.S. focused and talks about the difficulty in manufacturing and controlling them. The tone is also pretty "rah-rah free market" but I think shows the troubles armies currently have fielding a drone swarm. I think the author, Andrew Merrick, is a Yale economist.

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/09/for-replicator-to-work-the-pentagon-needs-to-directly-help-with-production/?amp=1

It's a longer article but here's a bit I felt relevant:

quote:


Foundationally, that means that small UAVs that can be produced in staggering numbers — the kind of capability so helpful in Ukraine, and which would be the most readily available for Replicator’s efforts — are, minimally, going to need to be brought to the fight by a larger platform with greater range. More likely, drones relevant to US operations in the Indo-Pacific regardless of domain will have to be larger than those used in Europe, and those systems are currently nowhere close to the kind of production levels Hicks hinted at.

This is the biggest impact of the oft-discussed tyranny of geography on any system produced by the Replicator initiative. Arguments over the sensors, datalinks and payloads of these low-cost attritable autonomous systems are sure to rage. If these systems are used to strike defended, mobile and/or hardened targets, their size and complexity may grow yet further. On first principles, the need for expanded range compared to their cousins on the Black Sea and in Ukrainian skies translates to larger, military specific systems that are more expensive, take more time to build, and come with larger, more complex supply chains.

As Hicks pointed out in her speech, all of these technological challenges are surmountable through the combination of the America’s vibrant, free market system with the Joint Force’s unmatched ability to “imagine, create, and master the future character of warfare.” However, production capacity for these military specific classes of systems has yet to materialize. They have unique economics, making it difficult to justify the business case for a new factory to build thousands of units in two years without high profit margins, access to exceptionally inexpensive capital, and/or potential for long-term use.

Ultimately, the United States lacks the production capacity required to turn these dreams into reality, and it’s hard to see what company would be willing to invest heavily to stand up production. Which leads the inescapable conclusion that the US government is going to have to invest directly to make the Replicator concept viable.

The dirty, uncomfortable and often unacknowledged fact is that today’s defense industry is built on the back of government investments from the 1940s and 1950s. In many ways, the United States has been coasting on 80-year-old foundational investments in heavy industry and production facilities. As an example, the Department spent over $2 billion adjusted for inflation as part of the Heavy Press Program during the 1950s. This forgotten industrial investment has been the lynchpin of the American aerospace industry from then until today. The F-35 rolls out of Air Force Plant 4, a government owned, contractor operated plant first constructed to build the B-24 Liberator bomber during World War II. Abrams tanks are remanufactured at another government owned, contractor operated facility that can similarly trace its heritage back to World War II. Wherever one looks across the defense industrial base, one finds that the arsenal of democracy, built with direct government funding, is not only aging but shrinking as well.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

evil_bunnY posted:

depends on guidance type. GPS (excalibur) is a couple meters, laser (copperhead) you can prob pick which tooth you'd like to knock out of someone's mouth.
I'm really surprised we haven't seen more laser-designated arty in use. I guess copperheads don't grow on trees.

No i mean failing the inspection for not actually lashing is sensible, my b.

Anecdotal but I've asked artillery guys about copperhead rounds a few times since 2015 and I don't think they're in use anymore. Even in Desert Storm the U.S. only fired about 70 of them. The fact the user had to be (relatively) close to laze the target made it not worth the bother over calling for fire traditionally until the advent of Excalibur rounds.

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Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?
Avengers sit in the "close air protection" part of the defense bubble. They make their money with moving formations on the attack or in hasty defenses when enemy aircraft are most active.

I have no experience with them as part of a static network so can't comment on that part.

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