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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Something is a little goofy about the link from the old thread --- throws an error for me. (Maybe the action=stick in the URL?)

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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Paranoea posted:

Thanks for the GLSDB analysis, everyone. I went and checked, and I probably misremembered some wishcasting from Defmon a few months back. Also, the Sweden thing was because of the Saab in Saab-Boeing, while I completely forgot Boeing was involved. *cough* So, I guess it's still several months away until we see these kinds of booms.

There was some speculation that small amounts could be delivered in April, but the details were pretty vague...

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

WarpedLichen posted:

I don't really know anything about the pro-Russian bloggers, is this a Strelkov type figure who is critical of the Russian MOD or some hard-right guy? Analogous to the attack on Dugin?

Considerably less pseudo-intellectualism:
https://mobile.twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1642562394298646531

(Also unlike the attack on Dugin this one is more likely to have hurt random bystanders, unless the cafe was closed to the public for the event).

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

WarpedLichen posted:



Edit: I think my takeaway here is that Russian intel gathering capabilities are still pretty good (as has been stated before)

Unless someone was really dumb (see above), but either way the Pentagon & friends have some housecleaning to do ... I wonder how many people have access to this sort of thing? Like the label looks scary, but it's not like it's the names of spies in Kremlin or such...

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Dick Ripple posted:

The real question is why would someone risk leaking Top Secret/Classified documents that are just calculated losses and a pretty looking month old situation report. Could someone be so stupid? Probably. But there is nothing spicy enough in there to risk going to jail for. Maybe if 4chan dude livestreams the FBI knocking down his doors we will know the true answer.

There is more than that... Another one seems to list what units are receiving what equipment and when.
(And there is also a mud map/calendar...). Both are pages seem to just be "secret", which seems odd in two different ways.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Paradox forums?

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Don't know who this is, but text seems vaguely consistent with my attempts of reading the Polish text with my poor Ukrainian:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jeff21461/status/1644364129019260929

... at any rate, I wish something like this were done for production a year ago....

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
And even earlier source:
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644382617381240846

... Though this doesn't identify it. Also I am not sure if it's worse to post US docs of this nature for an American or for someone with "polski" in his name....

Edit: https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644385195238227982

This seems to have non-Ukraine-related stuff?

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 18:06 on Apr 7, 2023

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

DJ Burette posted:

I have no idea if any of that's actually true or not.

That seems like the sort of thing one would easily get a warrant for to serve Discord with even if the warrant process wasn't rubber-stampy.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

bad_fmr posted:

Where did this current topic come from anyway?

By the incomprehensibility and diacritics I am guessing Finland. Anyway, this seems super-bad:
https://mobile.twitter.com/shashj/status/1644402807632478208

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Nenonen posted:

I think it's because I'm clumsy
I try not to talk too loud
Maybe it's because I'm crazy
I try not to act too proud


Has anyone anywhere officially commented on this?

Kinda, way before the current batch of revelations:
https://mobile.twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1644318444106522628
... If that counts as official, anyway.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Nenonen posted:

Like how do you cross the border over a partly frozen river from Russia to a NATO country but then get caught between Sweden and Norway

Any chance he previously served in Transnistria? (Though I can't imagine the Dniester freezes in that area much at all....)

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
On that note, WSJ has a very good article detailing what's known: subject matter of documents, where they came from, official responses, etc:
https://mobile.twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1644459346200256512

quote:

In addition to documents pertaining to the war in Ukraine, the leaked files included purported copies of the daily intelligence report provided to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley, Central Intelligence Agency reports on leaders of Israel’s Mossad spy service, and intelligence on discussions within the government of South Korea on sales of artillery ammunition to Kyiv. Most of the documents are dated in February and appear to have been posted online shortly after their creation. Many contain details of future operations.
I gotta wonder about access-controls on some of this stuff, and if someone is urgently buying tickets out of the country right about now....

Edit: I am not sure they accurately portay document travel racist discord -> meme discord -> Minecraft map discord, but that's probably not that important for the topics covered....

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 12:57 on Apr 8, 2023

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Besides that, even if you succeed you're in a hard to supply position.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Girkin people mostly pay attention to because he complains a lot and is as talented at writing that sort of things as he is at warcriming.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Eric Cantonese posted:

I assume Russia has moved heaven and earth to keep its own factories running to fuel its artillery-heavy approach to warfare.

Nothing suggests that this actually happened.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Eric Cantonese posted:

So it's all just draining old stockpiles?

Oh, no, they are making stuff, they just don't seem to be going all war economy or investing significant resources into making a lot more of it, as far as can be seen...

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Paracausal posted:

Vice now reporting that the tranche of classified docs had some homebrew dnd material thrown in as well
https://twitter.com/jason_koebler/status/1645482243056615426?t=PavCMg_xxBtQwbP1vP9Sew&s=19

Good chance the leaker is left-handed....

Edit: also, Измир but Izmer? What version Cyrillic would that be?

Edit #2: oh, Rubles as currency? So probably someone roleplaying a Russian whole not actually knowing the language or spelling.

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Apr 10, 2023

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Ynglaur posted:

I seriously wonder if this leak is someone bringing stuff home they shouldn't have, and a kid getting ahold of it and trying to score cool points online.

If it is, they have been doing that for a long time. Trad Orthodox also sounds like a convert, so less likely to be a kid-kid.

Edit: on second thought, it was apparently reposted from the racist server to the meme server by a kid, so maybe my expectations are out of whack.

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 19:14 on Apr 10, 2023

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Franks Happy Place posted:



It's called compartmentalization for a reason.

Uh, if they were actually compartmentalized it would be unlikely a single person would be able to leak so much.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Yes some versions are modified.

To be more specific, there is an obvious poorly done alteration of at least one document that has happened somewhere in the Russian internet space that's not present in the earlier leaks of that same document. There is no obvious indication that those earlier leaks were altered, but it's not like normal people have originals to compare against.

Some photos were taken with a bottle of paper glue in background, but I don't think the use of that would be invisible...

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Sergg posted:

They were originally posted to a white supremacist Discord channel, weren't they?

That's the earliest known spot, at least.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

(Edit: I am blind)
https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1646328264569356288

US media not calling right-wing white criminals "charismatic" challenge.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Moon Slayer posted:

Either way, we don't have enough adjectives in the English language to describe just how hosed this guy is.

That's assuming he is still in the country.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

I dont know posted:

If you are spying for a foreign power, you might get smuggled out of the country. If you are leaking for ideological reasons, you might score a presidential pardon from a sympathetic lame duck. No one is going to help someone trying to impress bored, teenage white supremacists.

If he gets to Russia he probably has a TV guest gig waiting for him. Good chance he gets arrested in Bulgaria or something, though.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
https://mobile.twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1646544312170053633

As a Boston resident, I don't understand why our Air National Guard has an "intelligence wing". (Also, our republicans are extra-crazy...)

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Antigravitas posted:

It's TYOOL 2023 and it certainly feels from my work that it hasn't really set in just how incredibly far-reaching Sysadmin-Level access is and how much responsibility and power lies in that role. And because management typically doesn't care about computer stuff it becomes a huge liability with basically no supervision.

It's a miracle that this doesn't happen more often.
Uh, yeah. As someone who works in private software industry the idea that some random dude in military IT can just access *contents* of classified documents willy-nilly is shocking (as it was for Snowden).

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
https://mobile.twitter.com/WCVB/status/1646581173185904640

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
There were news choppers circling the house before arrest. Anyway, more on localability of stuff:
https://mobile.twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1646592080293122067

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Mooseontheloose posted:

To be fair, if everything is by the book NSA/FBI/whoever probably has to get warrants and have procedures in place to take an action.

I am kinda wondering if "NYT published an article identifying the suspect, and it's the sort of crime where fleeing overseas is a significant concern" is enough to get a warrant....

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

cinci zoo sniper posted:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/04/13/us/documents-leak-pentagon/3c61ae8a-ebf5-5bd4-b805-43c9c701df5d

We'll see I guess, but if they do the 1 count per page thing, then it's going to be a while.

They don't make it clear if it's consecutive or concurrent...

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

cr0y posted:

I'm a senior level sysadmin and at my level you basically have total access to anything and everything at the organization you work for. It's just the nature of the job that you need access to everything.

Information is all digital nowadays and you can't have someone build a system that they don't have access to themselves. IT guys usually have the keys to the kingdom.

Most IT guys have the power to knock a company back to the stone age in a few minutes if they felt so inclined. Domain admin is a hell of a drug.
Have you heard of encrypting data at rest and key management?

Edit: to elaborate: yes, it's probably impossible to make the chief sysadmin unable to access data, but it doesn't mean a random kid whose job is to make sure the router is plugged in right should be able to read the Dense Secretary's daily briefing.

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 03:52 on Apr 14, 2023

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

WarpedLichen posted:

Is it better in some ways to have some younger people in charge? It seems like a lot of nations have a gerontocracy problem.

The situation in Ukraine is a little different than usual since, well, depending on the generation people literally grew up in a different country.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Nenonen posted:

Time for your scheduled Admiral Kuznetsov news :sureboat::blyat:

The Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia’s Only Aircraft Carrier, Has No Crew. Now What?

Maybe Xi is willing to buy it.

They did previously buy an incomplete ship of the same class from... Ukraine

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Letting Washington know about Ukrainian plans? Yes.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
I feel obligated to point out that someone has remarked on how інцелпостінг is comprehensible in Ukrainian (sadly can't find whom to credit), which really shows the influence of US cultural stuff (as do things like Ukrainian, or for that matter, Russian, rappers). I do wonder to what extent this happens in countries with lower familiarity with English, though.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

FMguru posted:

It's damage control for China's ambassador to France saying in a TV interview that none of the post-Soviet breakaway nations (Estonia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, etc.) aren't actually sovereign nations.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/24/china/china-ambassador-lu-shaye-baltic-soviet-states-europe-intl-hnk/index.html

This has set off a diplomatic shitstorm in Europe (and the post-Soviet sphere) and China is currently racing around trying to put out fires.

The hilarious part is that it technically applies equivalently to Russia (if not more so...?)

P.S. Get Russia out of Kazakhstan's permanent UNSC seat!

Edit: and the Baltic position, which US theoretically recognized, but blatantly acted against when it came time for independence, was that they were never legally part of USSR in the first place, but rather under occupation.

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 17:20 on Apr 26, 2023

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Young Freud posted:



Edit: WHAT THE HELL THEY STILL HAVEN'T TAKEN BAKHMUT?! I'm still seeing news reports that Ukraine is still holding it?!

A small portion.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Mr. Apollo posted:

Ah, OK, that’s good to know. It seems to be all over Twitter.

Well, the specific report is not credible, but it is true that Erdogan seems to be dealing with some health issues, interrupting a public appearance (IIRC due to stomach pain?) and then cancelling a bunch more...

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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Not terribly smart, either:
https://twitter.com/NataliaAntonova/status/1651548411315757057

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