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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

A good vid covering two kidnapped Ukrainian girls tracked down by a Ukrainian journalist and rescued, english subtitles, nothing violent. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPyWA9ZK4Qs&t=1170s

Stealing children. :argh:

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Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Ynglaur posted:

The US is changing to 6.8mm for infantry, scouts, combat engineers, and special forces, too. I have a bunch of thoughts on that new platform in the context of what we're learning in the War in Ukraine. I just need to find time to write it (and, honestly, I'm unsure if regulars itt would even be interested.)

Post it!!! :allears:

Want to know if the 6.8 is just another niche turkey or something better.

edit: post in haste, spell at leisure. :ughh:

Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 13:06 on Apr 5, 2023

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

fez_machine posted:

Apparently the true source was even more embarrassing than 4chan and included many documents

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644323072441286657
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644329557174939655

Even Pornhub would be less embarrassing than 4Chan, though the context would be weirder.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

golden bubble posted:

It turns out the correct answer was "Minecraft Map Discord Channel".

Thread name: War in Ukraine: Minecraft is weirder than PornHub.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Brown Moses posted:

.... It's the basic MMORPG guild leader dynamic.

Ukkk... i remember that kind of crap. :shudder:

Well, that's his life bolloxed for the next few decades.

Wonder what the fallout will be as regards future combat in Ukraine.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Saint Celestine posted:

What do you mean "inside" the frontal fuel tank.

Was also known as "Wet" stowage in later models of WW2 Sherman tanks, though they used water not diesel.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

edit; see above, didn't know it was that cramped, yikes.

Fidelitious posted:

That's the confusing bit to me. Even if they were legitimately a civilian research ship you can't just go sailing around in someone else's territory doing whatever you like.
Them being obviously an intelligence operation makes it even more weird.

I assume they stay in international waters and do all their surveillance just at the edge of the "we're not touching you" zone.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

buglord posted:

What do y’all think of this vid and YouTuber? https://youtu.be/ALLQLsfucvw

It’s a video in response to an upload by thread favorite Anders Puck Nielsen’s “how the war can destabilize Russia” video which was uploaded a day ago. The algo served me up this guy a few weeks ago and the few vids I’ve seen so far all seem largely in line with the tempered takes I see here and elsewhere about the war. The (pretty mild) criticism Vlad makes is that Nielsen might have oversimplified his assessment of how domestic instability would occur (so it would make more sense to an international audience), but in broad strokes the messaging is what he agrees with.

I basically ask your takes because I saw something with a guy named Lazerpig and those vids seemed a little too rosy? This guy doesn’t seem to be on the same caliber by any means but thought I’d ask.

Good old Vlad is an academic with a more thoughtful approach and doesn't stray into actual military ops to any extent, he`s more concerned with peoples thoughts and motives.

Lazerpig is all right for a laugh until you get tired of his gimmick delivery. :suicide:

edit: been subbed to Vlad Vexler since the 2022 conflict kicked off so i`m biased. :)

edit again: also been subbed to Anders Puck Nielsen since he started on the war as well, it's not an either or situation for me.

Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 21:24 on Apr 20, 2023

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Moon Slayer posted:

Some more news from the Discord leaks, this time kinda depressing news:

Thought we already knew the highlighted bit, we're lucky they can't access their frozen accounts.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Charliegrs posted:

I find it odd that Russia has shot so many cruise missiles at Ukraine throughout this war but it never seems like they shoot any at the places where western Equipment gets brought in. Like I'm guessing it's not really a secret the locations on Polish/Ukrainian border where these transfers happen you'd think Russia would be hitting those places? Or is it because they fear accidentally hitting Polish territory?

Gets too close to hitting EU territory resulting in Poland getting quite annoyed.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Nenonen posted:

.... Incidentally one of the latest missiles seems to have blown up one such depot in Pavlohrad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9-RxyYb8tQ

Thought that was just a chemical plant with a pile of decommissioned SS-24 missiles and tons of solid rocket fuel?

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Somaen posted:

That's probably the way it is publicized to play it down, similarly to how some places before earlier in the war were "fireworks storages". Good stuff getting hit is demoralising and there's no upside to admitting if a military facility got hit. Unfortunately with mass rocket attacks and storages saturated with new, good equipment being prepared for an attack, something is likely to get hit

Should have though of that. :tipshat:

"The truth is a three edged sword".

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Charlz Guybon posted:

I'm skeptical. Maybe the Russians faked it so they can mobilize further.

Patriotic fervour ensues! (allegedly).

I think it's a false flag personally. :shrug:

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Ynglaur posted:

... the good stuff...

Been looking forward to this. :tipshat:

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

OddObserver posted:

Some perspective may be in order: there is a non-trivial chance they will finish conquest of the city in a week or two.

If so i then petition that the term ''Pyrrhic Victory'' be changed to ''Bakhmut Victory''. :c00lbert:

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

bird food bathtub posted:

Airplanes use the laws of physics to achieve flight. Helicopters bludgeon them in to compliance as one step of their primary motivation; lusting for the blood of their pilots.

Any vehicle that requires a "Jesus Nut" to function properly is a leap of faith too far.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009


Wasn't expecting Ireland to pop up but i guess a lot of :filez: are stored/come and go through it these days.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Chalks posted:

These attacks have a very interesting profile. Done in daylight, massively increasing the intercept chance, small payloads with unclear targets. It's not clear that even the ones that hit targets were actually aiming for those targets.

Looking forward to seeing more analysis on this. Seems like the primary objective of these attacks was visibility rather than the drone strikes themselves. Embarrassing the Kremlin? Tying up AD systems and stressing the command structure prior to the counter offensive? There's also talk of a potential false flag to provide cover for a full mobilisation in the coming weeks, so I guess we'll see if that pans out.

Feels like Ukraine can (and probably will) perform much more effective and strategic strikes in future.

A message was sent, sender and recipient yet unknown. :iiam:

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

fatherboxx posted:

This is a very good advice for any topic and time regarding this war (but now especially) - unless you have a filtered stream of trusted sources, take a minute and double check any report for bias and plausibility.

The often repeated notion that this war is the most recorded conflict in history may be somewhat true but you should realize that even if you are deep into OSINT you only have access to very limited and often corrupt data as a side observer.

For good or ill, SA IS my filter. :derp:

Everything is going to be mixed up in the fog of war for the next few months.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Digiwizzard posted:

It looks like the Ukraine counter-offensive is going extremely badly.

The only ones who are talking atm are the pro putin ones.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

If Ukrainian forces make it to the Sea Of Azov at any location during this offensive it's going to be quite a game changer.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Skippy McPants posted:

...
That's a tall order. I think they'd consider the offense an outstanding success if they made it even to Tokmak. Ukraine doesn't need to win the war with this push. The big thing they need to prove is the ability to utilize all that military aid to regain territory and capture objectives.

That's me thinking optimistically for sure, time will tell.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Charliegrs posted:

drat Oryx is calling it quits that sucks. I was reading his blog even before this war started and he had really good articles on a lot of obscure military stuff. But after the Ukraine war started it was probably just too much to keep up with. And honestly it's a pretty dark subject, I'm sure counting up destroyed tanks on a daily basis has to take some kind of a toll considering it's human beings inside those tanks.

While not anywhere near as detailed, thedrive.com (a great automotive website) has a section called the Warzone that has good articles on all things military.

Apparently he has had recent health issues to add to things, the group did great work.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009


That classic came to mind for sure. :kiss:

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Ynglaur posted:

Michael Koffman believes that the bulk of supplies for Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia is coming from Crimea and not from Luhask and the "land bridge". He's doubtful that Ukraine reaching e.g. Melitopol alone results in all of the Russians west of Melitopol suddenly being cut off. If he's correct, then hitting the bridges coming out of Crimea may be a fairly big deal. Russia has lots of other options for supplying their troops--such as the ports on the Sea of Azov--but it's one more dilemma for a logistics organization which is hopefully being stretched in many ways.

Every additional hour of delay in the logistics train will help.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

daslog posted:

So I have lost all confidence in American media, have deleted TikTok from my phone, and I'm actively avoiding Reddit. That makes this thread my only source for Ukraine war news.

How is Ukraine actually doing on the ground? Are they making significant progress taking back territory?

They really aren't telling anybody anything (which is good security), what info we do get can be at least 48hrs old.

ISW does daily updates that are decent(with the standard time delay): https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

edit: SA is a good way to filter out a lot of the bullshit that flies around and my primary link to the conflict.

Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 19:54 on Jun 29, 2023

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Cpt_Obvious posted:

So, out of curiosity, how does the thread feel about the progress of the counter offensive? Is it successful? How much progress are they making? Is it relatively good or bad news for the Ukrainian military?

It's not last years blitzkrieg in Kharkiv if that was what you are expecting.

Russia has had time time to build defences and it will take time to probe for good access points and make a breakthough/s.

Internal russian conflict adds more confusion but may not change things overall (i'm only an armchair general). :shrug:

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Chalks posted:

Here's a good video about some of the interpretations of Ukraine's progress in this counteroffensive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4v2fuo9oI4o

An interesting watch. :tipshat:

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

MikeC posted:

...
The allegation is that the footage posted in that scenario involved either a botched attempt at inducing a surrender from Russian SOF units in the house or an outright lie to where IL soldiers deliberately murdered a Russian trying to surrender and the rest of the Russian unit in the house fired back and necessitated the fight seen in the footage. I have not come across definitive proof of it either way. But it seems unlikely that the casualties sustained by the IL was the result of artillery as claimed by Civ Div.

That's the one where Rory Mason (an Irish volunteer) and another man got killed, forgotten the details from when it all came out but if was very fishy.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Chalks posted:

Turkey was and could return to the road to EU membership - the problem is that it will require a whole load of reforms that an autocratic leader really doesn't want to make.

Presumably Turkey would be proposing joining the EU but somehow avoiding these reforms and there's zero chance of that. It's actually such an impossibility that I struggle to believe they'd even suggest it.

Turkey can try after the UK reapplies.... this may take some time (decades).

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Rust Martialis posted:

"Elevation gain: -6 feet"

:rubby:

As a submariner he should already be used to the lower depths.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Back Hack posted:

Lot of cluster round this and war crime that, but a not single word about Ukraine is probably going to disassemble them and use the bomblets on drones to help clear out trenches, stationary vehicles, and other fortified positions.

Well, we can't go around destroying a carefully constructed narrative just to find the truth can we? :argh:

edit: Ukrainians defending their country have a right to do so and to do it to the best of their ability, it is after all a matter of life & death.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

I just use the ignore button a lot. :shrug:

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Pablo Bluth posted:

As a Brit, my suggestion is that anything Ajax should only be touched with bargepole.

And the bargepole to be fired from a Challenger II. :colbert:

What a waste of money.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

stir up trouble posted:

.... wearing black rifle coffee gear...

:chloe: :barf: :chloe: Bugger that.

---------------------

Nice to see the bridge out of action in any form, eternal confusion to their logistical deployments.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Mooseontheloose posted:

No Labels is putting balloons in the air to see if Joe Manchin is viable as a 3rd Party candidate and in no way is the commentary paid for on CNN. To be fair this is labelled as "analysis" but reads as a No Labels press release.

.....

I think part of this is CNN trying to drum up SOME sort of interest because they think Joe Biden is cruising to a 2nd term and need a way to drum up a horse race. But let's take that more conspiratorial point aside.

No Labels is making the same mistake every Unity Ticket/People Hate the Two Parties people make. They believe their perception of the parties it how the public views the parties and that simply isn't true. It's "both sides are the same" but in terms of extremism. And that simply isn't true and as always a true third party candidate would be some sort of social safety net but for white people.

You can't do foreign politics in here, this is the War Room!!! :nallears:

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

fatherboxx posted:

I am used to only seeing nm in microchip discussions so the recent posts confused me alot
...

It's capacitors in my case, nautical & electronic terms don't mesh... like batteries and seawater.

edit:

Mooseontheloose posted:

Sorry! I thought I posted it in USpol.

No worries. :tipshat:

Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 20:09 on Jul 17, 2023

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

funk_mata posted:

Forgive and probate me if this is Clancy-chat, but with the expiration of the grain deal, what are the thread's thoughts on U.S. Navy escorts for grain ships? Is that a bridge wayyy too far?

On the one hand, it could lead to escalation; but on the other hand, people need food to live. I think it should happen if enough international pressure doesn't get Putin to sign onto a new deal, because I don't think Putin would want to risk escalation, particularly when what's being escorted is food; and I don't want people to starve.

I assume there could be other better options. I believe someone in the thread mentioned Turkey threatening to do something similar, especially if grain from Ukraine is vital for their populace. That way it's not another situation where the U.S. is just rushing in uninvited. I don't know how powerful Turkey's Navy is, though.

Turkey controls the Straits (1936 Montreux Convention) and limits warship access during wartime.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Eric Cantonese posted:

I copied and pasted the thread here for those of you who don't want to start a Twitter account.

A good read and i appreciate the copy. :tipshat:

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Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

The_Franz posted:

Just FYI, Nitter is working again (including search).

https://nitter.net/HoansSolo/status/1681240456754077697#m

Good to know it's available again... until Musk throws another wobbler. :rolleyes:

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