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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

AtomikKrab posted:

Welp, one thread done, onto the second

Actually I do believe this is the 3rd.

Rules post is much more concise thanks cinci.

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Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Cicero posted:

Does graphic violence just mean if you can see people being hurt/killed, or does it include "tank gets blown up (can't see anyone though)" or "aftermath of helicopter that's shot down"?

My two cents; for the tank blowing up, there's a chance people are in it, and explosions can be triggering, so anything active like that where people might be getting hurt or killed should have warnings. Previously destroyed equipment should be fine as long as one has checked that there's no bodies anywhere in the clip.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

El Jeffe posted:

About lost my mind the other day hearing public radio describe it as "deportation of children." The word is KIDNAPPING.

State-sanctioned kidnapping for the purposes of genocide. A crime so bad I would not have thought of it if I was writing a cartoonishly-evil character. Russia shouldn't be allowed to participate in anything, at all, until every child is returned home.

Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Mar 31, 2023

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

cinci zoo sniper posted:

We don't know. It was in the coming weeks as of the 21st of March.

Edit: Finished reading the new aid package, fuel and SATCOM stuff seems to be standing out a little bit. Also, how much ammo 23 million rounds are, really - how quickly is infantry expected to be spending normal bullets?

The amount of ammo an entire nation needs for a few months to conduct a massive counter attack must be a fun job to figure out

If I were them I'd expect to get bogged down in city fights in several new locations, while also still holding the line everywhere else. So millions of small-arms ammo for a month or 2 does not surprise me.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Mederlock posted:

:goonsay: ACKSHUALLY modelled after the .308 and then necked down, not from 5.56 up to 6.8. Its even compatible with AR-10 magazines and whatnot if I'm remembering correctly. So it's going to be a good 30% reduction or whatever it ends up being in raw numbers compared to 5.56. But with the new auto-ballistically calculated aim point built right into the new sight at all useful ranges, I imagine we'll see accuracy beyond 300 meters skyrocket on this new platform, and have the oomph to punch through modern body armour at those extended ranges where the 5.56 wouldn't necessarily have the energy left

What's the expected timeline for these replacing the current arsenal of 5.56? Cause that sounds like a timeline for Ukraine and Taiwan getting more hand-me-down guns and ammo than their bodies have room for.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

aphid_licker posted:

Don't think the US is gonna be happy with expending, asspull number incoming, for example 100 Patriot missiles a month indefinitely.

I kinda expect that this coming offensive with the Western AFVs is gonna produce inconclusive results and that after that ppl are gonna start thinking about how to freeze the territorial status quo? Surely Russia doesn't want to advance at Bakhmut speeds indefinitely, the West doesn't want to continue dumping ammo money and limited stocks of legacy systems into a bottomless pit, and Ukraine would like to have an economy again at some point.

The west has thrown a LOT at this conflict, but there's still some more they can toss Ukraine's way. And it's not really bottomless, Russia will run out of economic/logistical support long before the West does, it's just a question of keeping up political support which so far isn't an issue despite the loud whining of those opposed. I don't think Ukraine will negotiate if this offensive stalls, yes it's hell on their economy but this is an existential war. If they give Russia a chance to recoup Russia will for certain launch another war when they're ready, and next time they'll have an even better chance of absolute victory cause they won't be grossly underestimating Ukraine's resistance. Plus next time there's no guarantee the West's support will still be there.

They have Russia in a tight spot and the West backing them fully right now, this is their best shot to secure their nation.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Akratic Method posted:

China now claiming they they won't supply Russia (or Ukraine to make it sound fair and neutral, but I don't think there was ever much chance of that anyway).

https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-weapons-germany-ukraine-2a51d2c64c12fca75683d20fbafba475

Wonder if they calculated that Russia's chances are fine without them, that Russia's chances are hopeless even with them, or that they just don't feel like escalating with the US right now? (Or maybe Macron actually achieved something with his diplomacy?)

My guess is supporting Russia would only turn more of the international community against them for little to no gain. Even if China is committed to popping off over Taiwan, pissing the West off more over Ukraine encourages the West to unite harder and decouple from China even faster, causing massive economic damage and strengthening their enemy's position before the war even starts. And then it won't help their war anyways cause Russia has nothing to help them with. If they don't give Russia weapons, what's Russia going to do? Putin needs markets he can access, he has no cards to play against China.

North Korea and Iran can afford to openly support Russia cause no one cares where they stand. Anyone else doing so is just shooting their own foot off.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

Wonder what the Admiral’s drone defenses look like.

Every defensive system they put on AK is one that isn't on the frontline. So I hope they go super paranoid and load their literal rust bucket up with WW2 levels of short-range AA mounts. And then the drydock collapses on top of it again.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

fatherboxx posted:

Russian Ministry of Defense hastily published that it was an accidential discharge from a Su-34 that was on route to Ukraine

https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1649156245239070720

Russia, where the rock and the hard place is making up a story about your fighter jets bombing your own supermarket to hide that Ukraine can strike that far, or admitting that you actually did bomb your own supermarket.

Also I do believe this is not the first time Russian ordinance has gone, astray in Belgorod.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

fatherboxx posted:

I am going to say that all of the above is базированный кринж (not кринжовая база) and we better not delve into loanword madness further

Havent seen any Z-scum on TG raise the alarm about hits on the positions which is usually an evidence and they cant keep mouths shut

Are those channels reporting anything at all at this time? Cause I imagine part of a counter-offensive might be precision strikes against Russian communications. So their comms might be dead/damaged, on top of the bodily harm risk to those on the other side of a hypothetical offensive.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Kavros posted:

I congratulate him for helping the country prevent his future mass shooting event.

The APC that showed up to arrest him makes more sense now, sure he was a soldier who just committed some intel treasons, but they knew he was already planning a shooting too. Glad he was a total idiot. Also we probably need to redefine what "background checks" mean cause they don't seem to be doing jack.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009
Norwegian Defense Command effectively pointing the finger at this Russian under-sea ops vessel for blowing up the Nord Stream 1 pipeline:

https://www.information.dk/indland/2023/04/forsvaret-bekraefter-rusland-specialfartoej-naer-nord-streams-spraengningspunkt?lst_frnt

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009
I’m thinking it’s pissed off Russians citizens most likely, followed by Ukrainian partisans next most likely. Neither government has anything to gain doing this intentionally, Putin has more than enough examples of strikes on Russia-proper to rally “support” with, and for Ukraine this would only invite fresh attempts to kill Zelenskyy.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

WarpedLichen posted:

Does it have to be either (as in a state sponsored attack) - could it just be unsanctioned partisan/terrorist attack?

I don't think anything we saw required state level resources to achieve?

To make it clear I am thinking unsanctioned partisans, again of either Russian or Ukrainian variety. But I think more likely Russian partisans cause Ukrainians in Russia would probably be more concerned with increased retaliation against their family and friends back in Ukraine, whereas Russian partisans would not care about that and would only be concerned about humiliating the government, which this does.

I agree Russia doesn't need any excuse to attack Zelenskyy or attack more civilian targets, or escalate the war in any other way, they've been doing all of that from the start just fine with no provocation. So there's nothing to gain for the Russian government doing this to itself. Nord Stream was different; that showed that Russia could sever key infrastructure, damaged Germany's economy, and was a middle finger to the current alignment of European powers.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

OddObserver posted:

Fun fact: permitting foreign bases in Ukraine would require a special kind of constitutional amendment (to Ukrainian Constitution, that is) that requires a national referendum alongside 2/3rd parliamentary approval.
(See Article 17 and Article 156). There was previously a transitional clause that permitted Russian presence in Crimea to be grandfathered, which was sufficiently vague to be possibly misused for such a purpose... but it was removed by the very amendment that stated that joining EU and NATO was a goal.

I have a feeling political support for that in Ukraine, if NATO accession does not seem imminent after the war, would be extremely high. If they can't join NATO allowing US bases in Ukraine is the next best thing. Especially since both Ukraine and the US have precedent cases for doing that with other nations.

Honestly that sounds like an easier option than joining NATO. It only requires the 2 countries to consent while accomplishing effectively the same goal. And the US could probably do it even if all of Ukraine's pre-2014 territory is not returned, whereas convincing NATO to let a partially liberated Ukraine in could be very complicated.

But on more immediate matters, hearing more about a counter-attack on Russia's south flank around Bakmut towards Klishchiivka, including a possible Bradley field sighting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBWGSIQd-Co&t=133s (:nms: some drone combat footage including soldiers fleeing from a tank at close range, and a destroyed armored vehicle)

Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 03:57 on May 10, 2023

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Pablo Bluth posted:

My attempt at a map:

Red is approximately where the frontline is. The yellow line is roughly the 300km limit line to hit anywhere in Ukraine. The far extents of Crimea might still be a challenge but everywhere shouldn't need a near the frontline launch. Usually they're seen being launched by the RAF at a high altitude then they drop down to terrain follow at low altitude. If they can be launched at a low altitude that will make it a lot easier for Ukraine as we know they already fly near the front-line at low altitude to do unguided rocket tosses.

Also the front line might be moving in the very near future, and even if it wasn't, taking out the Kerch is worth some risk. They could find an area with reduced AA coverage that gives them the range, or suppress it themselves beforehand. I imagine such a strike would involve several missiles, possibly dozens to both overwhelm the bridge defenses and make sure it's sufficiently crippled for the risk taken. Getting missiles with this much range opens up a lot more options.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

OddObserver posted:

Then NATO needs to go back to basic training. This sort of restriction is absurd.

Physically taking control of transport hubs in Russia proper might make tactical sense, but I have to agree with others that diplomatically / politically it's a big risk. Very likely too big a risk for the potential tactical gains.

Certainly Ukraine should continue striking logistical targets within Russia proper, that is "fair game" and since they've been doing it already for a year it won't have any major political consequences. But the US, Ukraine's #1 weapons supplier, remains skittish on providing long-range strike capability even for doing more of those "acceptable" strikes. I don't think Biden would be very happy if Ukrainian boots walked over internationally recognized Russia. Biden's opposition in the US is already well over the fence on this, giving them real rhetorical ammo would not help.

It is unfair to Ukraine, in other wars taking enemy territory is the norm. But the political situation for this war is awkward to say the least.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Deteriorata posted:

I would be amused if Ukraine invaded Russia, but only as a means of bypassing Russian defenses in Luhansk.

"Sorry, we'll only be a minute. Just passing through."

It's... not impossible, there's definitely a lot of rail hubs down towards Donetsk that might be easier to cut off in Russia where they don't actually expect an attack versus in Donetsk which has been an active warzone since 2014.

That would be a truly historic move though. And I mean... The Republican wing of the US is already a completely lost cause anyways, so maybe Zelenskyy doesn't think it matters giving them a real reason to oppose the war when they are already itching to pull the plug. (EDIT: yes a lot of their reps support Ukraine, but Trump doesn't, so if he comes back in 2024 they will tow the line)

But it seems most likely they'll just hug the Ukrainian border, use missiles to strike the hubs in Russia and troops to take back the lines in Ukraine.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

FuturePastNow posted:

I'd assume the main purpose of that Patriot battery is to be a black hole for expensive cruise missiles

I'd say that's a tertiary purpose. Russia deliberately bombs civilians, so purpose 1 is to protect the innocent, purpose 2 is to protect everything else Ukraine needs for the war. Eliminating Russia's most expensive conventional weapons is a nice side effect on top of those.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Yureina posted:

This makes sense to me, which is quite hosed up when you think about it. It does kinda put them at odds with the whole fascism bit though, doesn't it? Where does working to gently caress over your own country fit into the whole ultra-nationalism bit that fascism is supposed to have at its core?

None of the far-right, from this leaker idiot right up to the federal representatives, Trump included, have any plan but "screw them, I do what I want" absolutely to the point of self-destruction. See all the mass-shooters who are basically just trying to suicide-by-cop and make a big flashy exit that people will notice. See Republican gutting education and infrastructure so hard that the military can't get enough recruits for the more difficult jobs, and industries lose billions to failing roads and electrical grids. See anti-vaxxers dying by the thousands or being cut off from seeing their kids/grandkids.

Foreign efforts to co-op this aren't the main danger, this self-destructive mindset is the primary danger on its own, but Russia and China are throwing extra fuel on the fire.

More on-topic, looks like some more sabotage missions popping off in Crimea:

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1659207322936410112?s=20

Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 23:47 on May 18, 2023

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Bashez posted:

This question is kind of odd but why is Russia still throwing armored vehicles into random attacks across the front line? I can't really get my head around wasting stuff when you're, in theory, waiting for an offensive. Are there individual commanders feeling pressure to more or less "look busy?"

Considering how well their various "organized" armored offensives have gone, random disorganized attacks might actually be better statistically for Russia. At least if 1 tank runs blindly into a random minefield he won't have his 4 comrades lemming train into the exact same minefield after him.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

OAquinas posted:

1) It gets some...problematic yet mutually-aligned people out of Ukraine
B) It gives Putin and Russia a bad black eye domestically and on the international stage
iii) Given that the defenses there consist of "2 guys and a BTR" it forces Russia to pull precious BTGs from the front to the rearguard. This can create openings for AFU to put pressure on and possibly break
four) It has a real chance at disrupting and possibly destroying materiel stockpiles and distribution. This also helps the counteroffensive (assuming its imminent)
ε) It's funny and a satisfying "turnabout is fair play" move

Yeah the real value is forcing Russia to redistribute their forces, and possibly cut off supply lines. If Russia can't move enough forces to stop these raids they could do a lot of infrastructure damage. If the Free Russian Legion commander is to be believed his mission did not involve reaching Belgorod, which implies he wasn't just given some men and jeeps and told to blow up whatever. He was told where to go and what to attack.

On the clancy-er side of things, this is a serious test of Russia's red lines. Which is useful as long as the actual line (if it exists) is not crossed, it shows the West that they don't have to be as concerned about waking up to some canned sunshine for supplying more and better arms.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

steinrokkan posted:

The best way to "hit" is to detonate just underneath the centerline so the cavity of the explosion creates a localized difference in flotation, leading to twisting forced that can literally break the ship in half.

Alternatively, hit the side of a ship which has locked off it's firefighting equipment to prevent theft and did not have all of its defense systems on despite being at war. The whole ship goes up in flames from what should be a survivable emergency and then sinks.

The sensors, guidance, 3-axis steering and ballast systems of a torpedo add a lot of cost and complexity. Strapping bombs to a bunch of cheap motorboats would still be somewhat of a threat to the US Navy, for the state that the Russian navy is in it's extremely good bang-for-buck to either deter or outright disable Russia's ops in the Black Sea.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

KingColliwog posted:

I don't condone them because I think striking civilian is always wrong and think they might be conterproductive but

If they are rare it might help by just making the war real for russians which may increase unrest

Russia is in a war of aggression and not a war for survival so they might not have the same resolve as Ukrainians

They might just be doing their best to force russia to use as much of their AA as possible away from the battlefield

It's definitely not a move I'd suggest, but after over a year of their civilians being bombed/murdered/raped/plundered it's no surprise that Ukraine strikes back in kind, either officially or unofficially. It's part of what sucks in war, it might be immoral to use a certain tool/weapon, but if the enemy is using it, you're at disadvantage not using it yourself.

As I've said about previous attacks like the one on the Kremlin, it could be to alleviate fears Ukraine's supporters have about how Russia might escalate. So far escalation by Russia in response to just about anything has been more missile/drone strikes, which doesn't indicate any real progress on the escalation ladder everyone's concerned about.

But it could also be to force those in Russia who think the war won't touch them to face facts. It's a coin flip if that galvanizes support or erodes it. But unlike the Pearl Harbor attack which galvanized US resolve and turned on the taps of the war industry, Russia is already nearly maxed out on the war economy and mobilization. So if it does increase the resolve of the common Russian towards the war, it won't make much difference practically for Ukraine. But if it does erode Putin's power base that could end the war sooner.

It's a very messy and risky gamble, but Ukraine is still in a tight spot.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Tomn posted:

It's also worth noting that I think that Ukrainian high command is made of human beings under a great deal of stress, strong emotions, not enough sleep and too much coffee. It might very well be the case that there wasn't a very coherent strategic concept behind the attacks other than "It'd be nice to strike back against those fuckers in the Kremlin." Not everything is part of some brilliant 5D masterplan that will inevitably win the war, sometimes people just do things and their reasoning for doing so don't always stand up to scrutiny after the fact. This isn't to say that the Ukrainians don't think through their actions or anything, but there is a reason why the old saying goes that victory in war belongs not to the side that makes no mistakes, but rather to the side that makes the fewest mistakes.

I don't think the raid is senseless, mind you - I feel like it's quite likely that part of the motivation is to try and divert AA defenses from the frontlines to Moscow. But I do think it's also quite possible that "Do you want to make Putin personally poo poo his pants when you set off a loud bang over Moscow y/n" is a pretty tempting motivation for a Ukrainian general, regardless of any military value involved.

Yeah as much strategy as I considered for these strikes, if someone dropped missiles on any of my immediate family I would not be responding with any sort of concern for decorum or moderation. I would probably respond with pure unmitigated rage and cause as much damage as possible to whoever was responsible, which is why it's essential to have friends and allies to temper our impulses. A big part of Ukraine's success in this war has been their incredible level-headedness.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Mr. Apollo posted:

I've gotten three recommended videos today on YT that claim to show Ukrainians being trained on B-52 bombers and the description says that America has announced it will be providing Ukraine with a squadron of B-52s and will be providing fighter cover for them while they go on missions.

It's just stock footage of B-52s being readied for a flight and then some footage of them flying with F-16s and F-35s.

I'm guessing this is some new disinformation story that someone is trying to push. I've never had any "fake news" stories like this recommended to me before.

Yeah that doesn't make sense on any level. Even if the US could be convinced to give Ukraine B-52's, which lol considering how cagey they were about M1 Abrams and F16s, I fail to see how they could help Ukraine. The B-52 exists because the US is on the other side of a large ocean from Russia and needed a plane to carry a large load of strategic weapons into range, Ukraine doesn't have that issue. They'd be taking off and immediately be in range of Russia's air defenses. It would be a massive disadvantage cause you'd have 1 launcher carrying all that payload and likely getting shot down, instead of multiple ground launchers spreading the payload out.

But the first and final nail in the coffin to this is B-52's are part of the US's nuclear triad, and they don't make them anymore and still lack a 1-1 replacement for capability. So I strongly doubt they'd give them to any nation under even the most extreme clancy-esque circumstance.

So yeah that's a big load of dumb disinfo, I suggest being highly suspect of anything else from that source.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Mr. Apollo posted:

They were definitely pushing the nuclear angle. The video kept mentioning that they were originally designed to drop nuclear bombs on Russia and then asked "Now that the Ukrainians have bombers capable of dropping nuclear bombs on Russia, what else will the Americans give them?"

I'm just surprised to have been recommended the same disinfo campaign from 3 separate sources when I've never had anything like the recommended before. Also it's such an obvious disinfo campaign it makes me wonder who they though would fall for it. Usually they try for a "both sides" type story or take real news a tweak it or take it out of context to make it seem plausible to a casual observer.

I'm quite certain that companies and countries grabbing data from the great algorithm occasionally throw ads and vids at people on the complete opposite side from them politically/socially etc just in case they manage to trick someone with some BS. My internet search history must be a litany of eco-friendly leftist utopia yet I still get recommended stuff from oil companies and strongly conservative speakers on occasion.

People don't usually fall for blatantly opposite material, but the unvigilant can be nudged slowly to any position with content that is adjacent but just a bit more right/left from their current position. Watching people fall surprisingly rapidly into anti-vax circles was a sad sight over the last 3 years.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

cr0y posted:

Is the B-52 even considered to be part of the triad anymore with the creation of the B-2 and the brand new B-21?

There are very few B-2's, and B-21 isn't fielded yet. B-52's are still planned to be in service up to the 2050's, I imagine the plan is to phase them out with B-21 but that plane still doesn't have the same payload capacity as the B52, it's more of a replacement for the B1.

Sorry this is a derail by now, more on topic Russia hit's unemployment low because surprise, every vaguely able-bodied male is currently trying to keep Bakmut in Russian hands:

https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/oth...2728d76a1&ei=19

EDIT: sorry for overlap on previous replies I was searching to add that more thread-relevant article

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Sergg posted:

CNN reports that the Russian military positions on the other side of the bank which had been attacking and shelling Kherson were flooded and overrun and they did not appear to have advanced warning this would happen. I know they were also told this was a "training exercise" but I would assume at least they would evacuate their positions.

They weren't told to not dig trenches in Chernobyl's red forest back when it was still their regular, much better trained military units, it would not surprise me if Russia blew the dam and realized afterwards "Oh right, our guys are in the lowest areas downstream. Oops." This move sabotages Crimea's future, which was like half the point of this whole war. The Russian state doesn't care about anyone.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

us ambassador to the un robert woods stated before an emergency security council meeting that the us does not have any specific evidence pointing to either ukraine or russia for the deliberate destruction of the dam, but believe that it's highly likely to have been russia based on who has what to gain and the negative impacts on the ukrainian people

All the usual idiots on Twitter going "hurr durr why Russia blow up their own dam" naturally don't know jack about history, specifically when the Soviets blew up the Dnipro dam to block the Nazis in 1941. Sure this move hurts them as well, even saw unconfirmed reports of Russian troops getting swept away by the waters, but that's never stopped Putin or the Russian state historically before. I get why such self-harm might be baffling to folks, but it makes so much less sense for Ukraine to do this to the land they want to retake. Russia deliberately doing this is objectively the only explanation.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Herstory Begins Now posted:

very much worth nothing that if Ukraine recaptured the left bank it's not like Crimea was going to be getting more water anyways

Well, at least not until Ukraine can take it back. Which is still a tall order but Russia going full scorched-earth on this key piece of infrastructure I'd say indicates they are very concerned about exactly that.

Speaking of, these photos show the progress of destruction by water after the initial breach:

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1666080545518804993?s=20

There was also a vid somewhere of a secondary explosion near the south bank behind the dam, but it is a warzone so could have been regular shelling and not additional sabotage.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

RockWhisperer posted:

I'm curious of whether Ukraine might consider a cross-river assault after the water recedes considering the water level is now controlled by nature (not the Russians anymore) and the river bank defenses are damaged.

Interesting idea though I think part of Russia's "strategy" in blowing the dam is that Ukraine will be so busy doing clean up that even with Russia's side basically undefended, a river crossing still won't be worth the cost at this time. Additionally, the resources needed for cleanup and rescue could have been why Russia blew the dam so early in Ukraine's offensive; give them a humanitarian disaster right when they need to pour the most resources into attacks elsewhere.

They've also turned the south bank into the most difficult terrain possible, it is now both a ruined urban environment AND flooded. I do not envy any large military equipment trying to make their way through that, potentially under artillery fire whenever Ukraine decides to retake the south bank.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

continuing pressure on safe operation of the nuclear plant. the more introduced points of friction, the greater the chance of something going sideways

Frig, I did not think about that. I was confident a way to extend lines to keep water pumping in could be found, but keeping the entire structure in place without the support of a lake's worth of water is a much bigger problem to solve

Good job making a double historic environmental and humanitarian catastrophe Putin. How useful will the Black Sea be if the cooling pond of Europe's largest nuclear plant drains into it?

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009
https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1668083952039362561?s=20&fbclid=IwAR0q_STUvsFJ3uX6supvf5XXZ14jEgW79hjO0H46SNreB-oiVDUBjXbwWQ8

Content of the article is fine, title of the article on Time's website is fine, but that's a big ol ooof for the headline on Twitter.

Regarding the lost column, seems plausible that the other advancing armored columns may be seeing success because they do have more/better anti-air systems. Definitely something to note, there is a Stryker variant designed to provide medium-range AA, we probably need to send more of those. Western trainers are used to having very solid air cover, it's understandable they may have underestimated the amount of ground motorized AA needed for armored columns.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Hannibal Rex posted:

I'm mildly curious, how do less-than-APC modern vehicles like MRAPs compare to ancient Soviet stuff like BMP-1s, as far as protected mobility is concerned? Is it even possible to make a meaningful comparison?

MRAP specifically, it's literally the name; a bunch of those vehicles were disabled seemingly by mines and while the MRAP will still lose mobility going over a mine, they're designed to keep the crew alive even if a pile of shells and bombs of arbitrary yield goes off underneath it.

A lot of this is just geometry, the bottom of a Humvee, and a BMP-1 is flat. The blast and shrapnel from below have the minimum cross-section of armor to get through. Just by having angled armor underneath, more of the blast force is deflected, the shrapnel has a thicker cross section to go through and is more likely to ricochet away than dig in or go through.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

jaete posted:

So max 60 years in prison total? That seems lower than I expected. Didn't he leak many hundreds of pages of documents?

Sure but even if he gets half that he's still gonna spend his entire youth behind bars, and then have zero career prospects when he gets out. 30 years ago was before Ukraine signed the Budapest memorandum, for a scale reference for all the things this guy gets to watch fly by from behind bars.

Also he should literally be cell buddies with Trump for doing the same if not worse crime.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

mlmp08 posted:

The biggest difference might be less the couple hours of actual breaching and more the corps and division-level shaping that takes place prior to the breach.

Here's a basic (and kind of old) breach 101 video they used for instruction of the breach at the US maneuver center.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ

Pro click, this really highlights a lot of what Ukraine is unable to use in today's breaching efforts. Ukraine has artillery, but no where near the amount of long and close range air support the US relies on. Also, the vid mentions using maximum amounts of smoke, and makes a note that this does cause friendly command and control problems, but to do it anyways. It's possible Ukraine is not employing that seeing as their army is a lot greener at all of this than the US is.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009
edit: removed video too gratuitous my apologies

Russia picked up a trick from their time in Syria. Guessing they didn't find it useful to fix a T54, so instead they turned it into a VBIED. Fortunately it hits a mine first, and then the Ukrainians RPG it. A massive explosion follows with a wilson cloud that fills the whole view of the drone recording the event. I hope the troops in the trenches were ok, it looked like the sort of explosion that just the concussion from some distance would be fatal.

Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 23:16 on Jun 18, 2023

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

SirFozzie posted:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...76be19be2&ei=18

So, apparently the new thing in Russian Warfare isn't tanks OR drones, it's Tanks AND Drones! (as in remote piloted tank)

I really gotta wonder what depths the Russian tactical folks are facing in the counter offensive. What does it take to get to "take an old tank, refit it to be piloted remotely, fill it with explosives and then send it rolling at the opposition, hoping it gets through the mindfield or even someone with a RPG to blow up?"

Yeah that's about the video I saw and un-posted. I figure they had a tank that still drove but had some other parts in such a bad state that they felt using it as a VBIED was better bang-for-buck. Still kind of surprising since it could have been used for spare parts instead. But Russia's in year 2 of what was supposed to be a 3 week war and they've been losing ground for over a year, so desperate times call for stupid measures.

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Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Charliegrs posted:

If I remember correctly I believe Russia has been using ancient tanks like T55s for this. So this is actually probably the best use for them. Apparently one of them got pretty drat close to a Ukrainian trench before it got blown up and the blast was so huge I'm sure it hosed up whoever was in that trench.

Honestly I'm surprised Ukraine hasn't started doing this. I believe they have a bunch of old T55s and other ancient Soviet armored vehicles they can use.

It's pretty wild to see the mighty Russian military use a tactic that was popular with ISIS.

Ukraine has made a thing of capturing any and every tank that can reasonably be repaired. Considering their shortage of armor, which is still much greater than what Russia faces despite historic losses, even if a tank can't be made to shoot it can still be a decent APC. And it's worth the time and effort to make it shoot again if it's at all possible. Plus optics aren't great if they blew up their own "working" tank and then turned around to ask for more tanks.

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