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AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

Welp, one thread done, onto the second

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AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

The hell,

I mean this is.... :bignews:

AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

Vaginaface posted:

I was about to go for World War Z

Content:
How do the numbers stack up in:
Belarusian military vs belarusian rebels

Like I assume reclaiming minsk is not on the top of Prigozhin's list, especially if a theoretical new state is allied with Ukraine. How would that uprising play out? What are we thinking Prigs mid-long term geological goals are?

Mid would be to win the civil war and crush all other factions that pop up during it (Assuming he downs putin) Long term, who the gently caress knows, Priogzhin probably doesn't know

AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

Djarum posted:

If Wagner captures Moscow Putin and the rest of the Security State and Government is basically done. Those who can would flee in exile to where ever they can. Although I think their days would be numbered since there would be any number of groups looking to capture/kill many if not all of them.

Prigozhin's best option would be capturing as many of them alive as possible. He could use them as capital to help normalize relations with the West again.

Really though we are in utterly unknown waters.

I am legit concerned that the Russian Nuclear arsenal will get used, on its own territory. Or even worse Putin on his way out decides to burn the world and launches everything.

AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

Ms Adequate posted:

What you're saying is not really wrong, but it's admittedly difficult for me to credit the idea that the guy who has been the big man in Russia for over two decades now would fumble like this. It's not micromanaging every part of the nation to keep tabs on the topmost other centers of power in the country, that's just maintenance, and it has to be done. And if true that Putin has been getting intel reports for weeks or months saying Prigo is arranging his pieces on the board and going to make a move, it's extremely strange that nothing was done about it. Did he dismiss them? Did he think he had more time? Believe he has an ace up his sleeve (and was apparently right, but Prigo went ham in an unexpected way)?

I admit I wasn't aware that outright armed revolt was a seriously entertained possibility, but even so, that only solves the Prigo half of the puzzle (I can see the argument that he was looking to puff up his fur and get some concessions rather than seriously try to overthrow the Russian government, I'm not completely convinced but it is one of the ideas that better explains his actions). Putin's actions remain baffling to me. They weren't necessarily irrational in the immediate sense (I would personally not be eager to stay within the possible grasp of an army of hardened soldiers made up of mercenaries and comvicts who appeared to be coming right at me) but they completely tanked his authority and credibility in a massive, likely irreparable, way, and for all the world he looks like he was in a complete panic until Luka stepped in.

Putin was in a complete panic until Luka stepped in. Putin thought that Wagner was just gonna suck up the abuse being heaped on it. When Prigo moved and it looked like nothing was stopping him, Putin freaked and bolted.

AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

Charliegrs posted:

Everyone's always talking about how bad Russia has performed in this war but honestly are they really doing that bad? Sure the blitzkrieg into Kyiv was a total failure but they seem to be holding their own against a military that has gotten a ton of high end western hardware and training.

A ton... of western hardware that amounts to like 5% of what the U.S. military spends yearly on hardware and other stuff

AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

Right now the US is keeping a hostile foreign power from committing a lot of warcrimes (they are still committing some warcrimes) by helping to prop up the military of a friendly foreign power on... a practically insignificant budget compared to everything else we do. Those weapons are also degrading that hostile foreign power's ability to potentially engage in any other hostilities as well. Those weapons are also helping build back up some good will in the world to the USA as well as most nations at least feel the US is doing something good for once.


Russia can go home any time they want, there is nothing keeping them in the Ukrainian people's land except for Putin's ambitions.

And again what is the alternative? let Putin warcrime on Ukraine and its people?

AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

mrfart posted:

It took forever, but the Belgium defense company OIP finally sold its 50 Leopard 1s, (and M113 armor carriers) to an anonymous buyer. They're going to Ukraine, after getting refitted with modern equipment in Germany.
That will probably take another half year.
I don't know how useful these will be, depends a bit on the kit they'll get in Germany I suppose?

50 more tanks is better than not having 50 more tanks.

Moon Slayer posted:

Not to start another US politics derail, but a new funding bill for Ukraine is getting ready to go to Congress. Here's an article on it from Punchbowl's morning newsletter. Bolding mine.


There will be hemming and hawing but it will pass, the MiC will put its thumb down on those who need to be put down on until it gets passed.

AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

WarpedLichen posted:

I'm not an expert on naval mines but Black Sea is a big place and unless there's some shallows to navigate you would have to throw a lot of mines to seriously disrupt shipping? There are no roads or chokepoints to selectively mine is there? I would imagine the use case for mines is you throw them near ports to block them, not throw mines randomly in sea lanes?

The only choke point is uh... controlled by Turkey... who would take a lot of offense.

AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

How can you do a north korea in Russia where quite frankly there is plenty of room for people to you know just walk the hell away?

AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

For mineclearing purposes, I would go the other way than some very heavy tank or something, shitload of cheap rear end drones with what amount to jackhammers/magnetic stuff/anything else to trick the mines into exploding. Don't matter if they get wrecked doing it, they should be small enough and light enough for the armored vehicles coming behind the drone unit to just shove or crush underfoot without slowing.

AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

Icon Of Sin posted:

Don’t sell him short, he’s perfectly capable of taking bribes from both!

Orban will get something he can show off to the people back home, but will eventually comply

AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

Orthanc6 posted:

Looks like some shots hit the water near at least one of the drones during the vid. Special Kherson cat mentioned in a comment that ships have been sailing un-escorted, but honestly from the targets we've seen hit I'm not sure that would make much a difference. We've seen helicopters and several different types of vessel try to repel these attacks and ultimately fail.

It legit seems we need to bounce back to the 1910's where capital ships have substantial secondary armament to repel torpedo boat attacks. Fortunately for Ukraine the Black Sea fleet can't go anywhere to safely refit.

Didn't they basically have rows of small calibur automatic guns along each side manned by crew to try to shoot the boats?

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AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

At least luka can into dog, Pumrt can't even do that part.

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