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Ynglaur posted:I don't mean to be a downer, but I think even a successful offensive doesn't end this war. I think this goes into 2024 at least. I hesitate to guess much beyond 12 months, but I don't see a clear path to destroying enough Russian combat power to liberate the Donbass this year. Maybe I'm wrong! I hope I am. Well you have Ukrainians getting modern equipment at the moment, which we have seen what this equipment does against what Russia is fielding in the first Iraq War. Granted anti-tank weaponry is more advanced than it was in 1991 but it is unknown really how much Russia has available at this point. The guns on a Leo2 should be able to outrange a T55 and even a Bradley or Striker should be able to engage at a farther effective range than most of what Russian is fielding with better optics and range finding accuracy. This is the main Russian problem is they have been losing resources that are not able to be replaced since the conflict started. It's easy to toss 100 cruise missiles a day into the country when you have a couple thousand. When you get down to only having a couple dozen you lose a lot of your capability. Same with tanks when you have hundreds it is easy to toss them out. They have lost enough of their best stuff that they are now looking at mothballed obsolete stuff to try and shore up the holes that are created moving what they have to replace what they lost. The biggest issue Russia has is they have been utterly reliant upon outside sources for their equipment for quite some time. They do not have domestic sources for much of what they would require to go on a proper war footing and mobilization. They are stuck in a situation where their options are to try and run out the clock to see if NATO decides to give up on Ukraine which I don't see happening any time soon or Daddy China decides to take pity on them and actively aides them. I don't see China provoking the ire of the West anymore than they already have by doing so. They are going to toe the line but they have every reason in the world to let Russia collapse so they can try to make it a full puppet. I don't see Russia leaving by choice at this point. I do think there is a scenario where they have a big enough loss that they are forced to abandon large parts of the country, but they aren't going to make it easy.
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Mar 31, 2023 20:14
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Kraftwerk posted:Also interested. The 6.8 is about the same size and weight as 5.56. The big difference is that the round is a hybrid case with a stainless steel jacket to handle the higher pressure it generates. It is designed to defeat advanced body armor that would be used by a near peer adversary. My concern is that outside of active combat they will use a weaker full brass round for training, etc. There will no doubt be a difference as how the two rounds perform and losing that experience and muscle memory will be a thing. But on the plus side it will allow the rifles to have a much longer service life outside of combat due to less wear and tear from the less powerful round. As we have learned with Ukraine, a rifle in combat will only last a short amount of time anyway before it is either replaced or the user is out of action. The other plus is they will all have a suppressor standard which is a huge thing as it will help save a lot of hearing.
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Apr 4, 2023 23:43
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OAquinas posted:From what I understand, HARMs are using the missile-based radiation sensors and they have a simplistic control panel in the form of basically an ipad app. Not sure if the Storm Shadows have a similar workaround possible. Well to have a decent amount of success the UAF would need some sort of a EW platform which at least publicly they do not. Personally I'd still rather use a drone platform for an operation like that. You can replace equipment, it is a lot harder to replace trained manpower.
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Apr 6, 2023 21:18
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I mean if you were going to push some disinformation out there and/or shake up some poo poo this would be the way I'd do it. Put documents that have a bit of truth out there with a lot of not into the wind. Have authorities state that they are "real" which could mean anything really. Hope the enemy has to second guess everything, even the parts they know are true. I am leaning toward this being a disinfo operation just because there is likely a VERY small handful of people whom would have access to that much classified info, especially outside of a tightly controlled setting. Those that would have that wouldn't jeopardize their status and likely life to post them on a Minecraft Discord for the lulz. Also the NSA would likely be on whoever did it in seconds since it isn't like it is rocket science to figure out who would have had access to all of the above and who could have done it. The fact that we haven't heard of any movement in an arrest should be a huge smoking gun there. Granted we live in the stupidest timeline so it could very well be some stupid Senator who brought this poo poo home and their kid posted it.
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Apr 11, 2023 18:26
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Likely the entire chain of command is going to be turbo hosed there. The fact the guy was able to take highly sensitive information repeatedly for a long period of time is a massive failure in security and oversight. A bunch of people are going to be forced to fall on their swords there. What is just as concerning is this idiot had the access and ability to let poo poo walk out for the lulz on Discord. Makes to wonder how many others are doing the same thing elsewhere and giving that to others?
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Apr 13, 2023 22:49
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cr0y posted:Who is managing the provisioning of the encryption keys? Well I know that in my experience access where I have worked for a ton of stuff has been purely on a absolutely must have it basis. When within the Admin levels you want everything so heavily compartmentalized as to avoid exposure when compromised and to avoid access to non-needed things. As for encryption I would think you would have career national security agents handling such things. Have it like nuclear codes where no one has the full key at one time so there is limited exposure if compromised. That being said there is absolutely zero reason why some kid in the Mass National Guard should have had access to a fraction of this stuff and even less of a reason why he should have been able to print it out and walk out with it.
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Apr 14, 2023 06:35
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:What do we think is going to happen to this leaker? Is this kid going to spend the rest of his life in Leavenworth? They will probably put him into SuperMax honestly with the rest of the convicted spies. Dude is going to die in prison. It is sad because he threw his entire life away for absolutely nothing. Now he is going to spend at least his next 40 years rotting in a box, which personally I'd rather get the death penalty but that is another discussion entirely. KingColliwog posted:This kind of situation makes it hilarious that some people think the US govt is hiding UFOs and poo poo. Well the US Govt is good at hiding stuff when it needs to, they compartmentalize well and are excellent at pushing cover stories. I will say working with sensitive things as a non-enlisted that the security on that end in my experience is night and day different than what it sounds like with things with this guy, especially as a civilian contractor. I imagine that is also different depending on the project and whatnot as well. And as for other countries, generally the US is among the "best" in terms of how it's military operates. They have the manpower and money to make sure most things are done as intended. The further down the size and money you go, you see how the corners are cut. It is also dependent upon the country as well. Some, Israel for example, take their security incredibly seriously and invest more into that than other countries for obvious reasons. Lots of former Soviet countries security was based on fear of speaking out, which in some forms still lasts today. Fear can be outweighed by other things which is how so much of it was compromised over the years. Western countries try to do the whole duty and vetting thing generally which as we just saw doesn't always work either. In the end human nature at the end is stupid and selfish. You can't get away from it.
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Apr 14, 2023 14:39
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Charliegrs posted:Theres tons of Ukrainian soldiers using AR pattern rifles. It seems like the foreign soldiers use them a lot too. Yeah it isn’t like 5.56 is hard to come by. A new manufacture AR pattern is likely leagues more accurate and reliable than an AK that was made decades ago. I’d assume that AK pattern stuff is likely being used in non-front line stuff now at this point. If for no other reason than to be able to more easily tell friend from foe.
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Apr 28, 2023 01:55
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The more I am seeing on this the more it seems like this is a false flag by Russia. If Ukraine had the ability to orchestrate such an attack they certainly wouldn’t waste it on a random attack to destroy a flag. They would save it to either take out a high value target or cause major disruption. Nor would they waste the considerable resources it would take to pull off something like this. This doesn’t follow their MO at all. It does follow the pattern of amateurish stunts that Russia does. Unless some sort of solid proof comes out it just doesn’t pass the smell test even on the most basic level.
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May 3, 2023 16:00
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1653761880144396288 They certainly seem to be fairly basic RC style drones. If I had to guess something easily obtainable from China if for nothing else obtainability and deniability. You load it up with some explosive and many have GPS navigational systems as well. Considering the size of the explosion it didn’t have much of a payload which leads to a commercial drone as well. It’s something that you could put together for a couple thousand dollars easily.
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May 3, 2023 16:26
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EasilyConfused posted:Wouldn't it be more likely that this was an unsuccessful attempt to take out a high value target (presumably Putin) than a successful attack on a flag? Well if you have intelligence that Putin or someone else of that level would be at the Kremlin your wouldn’t attack the building with something of that power. The idea would be to hit them while they are moving from the building to transport optimally. This was basically all show and no go. If Ukraine was doing it I would venture to think they would use some sort of plastic explosive to maximize the explosion along with adding in shrapnel if it was designed to target an individual. From the explosion it certainly seems like it was some sort of a fuel bomb. Which if I were wanting to make a show attack would be what I would use. Big pretty explosion which if in the air does little and wouldn’t effect a building basically at all, let alone something hardened like the Kremlin.
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May 3, 2023 21:49
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Xtronoc posted:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro...post_type=share Well it also might be because the entire op was so bad that they can’t even justify trying to spin it.
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May 4, 2023 18:30
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funk_mata posted:How do mercenary groups typically get their equipment? Do they--or more specifically Wagner--buy them from the defense industry in whose country they operate? Should groups like Wagner even expect "free" ammunition from the MoD if they are a mercenary outfit? I'm hoping someone in this thread can educate me here, because Prizohin's whining seems strange: if you are a mercenary outfit, you get paid for waging war well; and if that's the case then your inability to field weapons is indicative of your inability to wage war well. That is, you're not making enough money by "winning enough" to purchase weapons or ammo. Or is it simply the case that waging war is way more expensive then any mercenary outfit can hope to wage without external support even with capitalist incentives. Well Wagner isn’t technically mercenaries, it is effectively a private wing of the Russian Military. They are no doubt supplied directly from the MOD. A real mercenary outfit generally buys arms directly from manufacturers if legally allowed or through arms brokers if not. Sometimes they are given additional equipment by the client but that is not the norm.
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May 5, 2023 06:35
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Lum_ posted:Before this year, they were more of a classic PMC with forces overall far better trained and equipped than the average Russian brigade. They've spent the past year bloating up with convicts and volunteers from various sources and their on-the-job training program has been "charge the front, and if you don't die, do it again tomorrow", so they are much closer to what you'd consider a paramilitary militia now, albeit still with a core of warcrimey merc goons. Wagner has been used as plausible deniable Russian forces for some time. I can’t for a second believe that they do anything without the OK from Putin. The Syria incident is  because it had to have been planned and ok’ed from above. It goes to show the Russian mindset that they didn’t think that the entire might of the US forces in the area wouldn’t come down upon them. The US has their own versions of these; Blackwater famously was used during our desert wars with plenty of war crimes on their hands too. They have become favored in recent times to handle tasks that are politically or legally dangerous or the chance for failure is very high. They are considered expendable and if things get too spicy they can and often are cut loose.
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May 5, 2023 18:10
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mrfart posted:That would be a dream come true, but I'll believe when I see it. Well they could be pulling active units from the city itself since it is far behind the front lines and they are needed elsewhere to shore up their fronts. On paper it isn’t a bad idea since if the Ukrainians break through the lines there are going to likely take Melitopol anyway. Having units in more easily defendable or better tactically positions than sitting in a city that can be surrounded and getting resupplied would be sketchy is probably the better idea. I think it is a sign from Russian Commanders that they don’t feel strong about being able to hold the region during the counter offensive and will be looking to get what they can mobile as quickly as possible.
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May 7, 2023 00:20
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Young Freud posted:The issue with 'launch more' is that they've rapidly depleted their stocks to the point they can't do that. Well and another thing for them to consider in the “launch more” theory is that the system has failed already once. You don’t want to have more failures both in terms of PR since Russia was/is trying to export these things elsewhere and giving more valuable data to the West so they can make the Patriot stronger against them. It is a lose/lose scenario for them. I would be real surprised right now if someone wasn’t working on a smaller, more maneuverable Anti-Air system. Something akin to the Hawk but with more advanced sensors and missiles that could be put in the back of a truck and easily used/moved for front line air defense. Maybe couple it with like a 20/30mm auto cannon for taking out drones and unarmored/slow moving targets.
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May 7, 2023 16:03
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Ynglaur posted:You're describing Rheinmetall's Skynex system, which allegedly is currently in service in Ukraine in very limited numbers. I was thinking something something with an auto cannon like that coupled with medium range missiles like the Hawk. I’d probably go with a Gatling 20mm like what is on the A-1s. Make it something you could put on the back of a humvee, although with the power of a 20mm that might not be possible.
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May 7, 2023 16:47
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Budzilla posted:Amazing that the British wanted a similar round in the 50s and the US vetoed that idea and went with the fill rifle 7.62 cartridge and later on with the 5.56 and now this. Well that was more that the US brass wanted a full power round because more powwwer. The Europeans got the FAL while the US settled on the heavily flawed M14. The M16 and the 5.56 came about because of how badly the M14 and 7.62 performed in action. Honestly the British had the recipe right with the bullpup and 6.8 way back then. The optics are crazy secret sauce. I am still skeptical in terms of them actually being able to produce them en mass and them performing as well as they claim in the field. Though having an optic and suppressor as standard on every rifle will be huge even if the more advanced features don’t end up working as well as advertised.
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May 9, 2023 04:57
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Kraftwerk posted:What makes optics so special compared to iron sights. Most of the time you can’t actually see what you’re shooting at, right? Like the dramatic short range videos we see of people mag dumping into Russians at the trenches or the defense vids where you see 2-3 guys shot at close range are supposed to be the exception rather than the rule. Most of the time I think you’re shooting in the general direction and by the time you find the bodies nobody actually knows who killed them. Optics, especially modern optics, make it much, much easier to acquire and hit a target accurately. With a Red Dot for example after it is zeroed in basically where you point that dot at you hit. You couple that with magnification and you greatly increase your effective range. So you are taking valuable seconds away with using one compared to using iron sights and increasing accuracy. What makes the fancy new optics on the new US rifles so game changing is it takes all the guess work out of zeroing your sight. Instead of having to estimate distance and compensating for elevation and windage the optic does all that for you, again making the individual much more likely to hit their target on the very first shot. The means they are more lethal, using less ammunition and much more likely to survive a firefight. Another thing that isn’t being talked about is the suppressor which is using nextgen 3D printing technology to make it much more quiet, lighter and cheaper to produce than traditional suppressors. The whole package is effectively video game stuff from even a few years ago. The fact that it all works even in a controlled test environment is incredible. It is light years ahead of anyone else and I don’t see anyone else being able to get there anytime soon.
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May 9, 2023 06:51
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Ynglaur posted:Genuinely curious: why do you doubt the ability to build them at scale? The ubiquitous of effective ACOGs and similar optics demonstrate we have the optics part down. And by ubiquitous I mean that in 2005, every trigger-puller in Iraq had an optic on their M4. The rest is electronics, and we've gotten pretty good at building sophisticated electronics at scale (see: iPhone). I'm not a manufacturing expert by any means, though, so I'm genuinely curious what causes you to doubt this. There is a BIG difference between building something that works for demonstration or testing and building them in mass. Also building them to be able to be used in the field. Having something that can not only survive combat but also being abused by enlisted who don’t really give a gently caress about if poo poo breaks is going to be the key. The optics are the one weak spot to the entire platform, the rifle is pretty conventional, the rounds are newer tech but nothing outrageous biggest issue is producing enough of it which just takes time, the suppressor is using newer production methods but they are proven at this point. Yeah we can build very sophisticated electronics but take an iPhone into combat and it won’t last long. There is a million things that can go wrong and likely will. Having the scope included that works without the electronics is still light years better than most anyone else but I will not in the least be surprised if the secret sauce ends up having a lot of problems for some time. It always does. Hell I would be suspect if it didn’t honestly. There is a reason why Special Operations members hate having to use new, fancy poo poo because it almost always fails when you need it the most. Reliability is the number one most important thing in the field. It doesn’t matter what it does if it doesn’t work when you need it. Hell, anyone that has ever been in the military or been around it has stories of new poo poo not working.
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May 9, 2023 18:44
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It is pretty obvious that the US and UK are playing good cop/bad cop in terms of weapons and ratcheting things up. My feeling is bar a full collapse of the Russian military/government we won’t see an end to the conflict until next year. You’ll see meaningful gains this summer again with the counter offensive, enough to keep the support in Ukraine and overseas positive. Come next year we’ll see Ukraine get all of the equipment they will need to fully push Russia out, in turn getting Ukraine mostly equipped with NATO standards. Soon after Russia is pushed out you’ll see at the very least US and UK forces stationed in country which would serve as a massive deterrence from Russia trying any games going forward.
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May 10, 2023 01:45
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Kraftwerk posted:How would this work exactly? It's not like the Russians are going to sign a peace treaty. They're gonna keep lobbing missiles at Ukraine long after their armies have been thrown out thus making it an "active" but low intensity conflict that makes putting NATO troops in harm's way a trigger for WW3. It wouldn’t be NATO. You’d have US and UK “peacekeepers” stationed in country. It’s basically a mechanism to ensure that Russia stops hostilities since they aren’t going to lob missiles, if they even have any left by that point, if there is a chance to hit US or UK forces. It would be something akin to Korea where they are still at war but North Korea isn’t going to try anything stupid. Although frankly if Ukraine pushes them out of the country completely I think there will be a declaration of peace just because I don’t think Putin will be able to last. Who or whatever replaces him will likely call of a ceasefire and end of hostilities.
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May 10, 2023 02:18
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Orthanc6 posted:I have a feeling political support for that in Ukraine, if NATO accession does not seem imminent after the war, would be extremely high. If they can't join NATO allowing US bases in Ukraine is the next best thing. Especially since both Ukraine and the US have precedent cases for doing that with other nations. That’s kind of my take as well. I would include the UK as well since they have been heavily involved in all of this I would imagine they would likely want to contribute to Ukraine’s security after the fact as well.
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May 10, 2023 04:09
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/asia/japan-foreign-minister-hayashi-nato-intl-hnk So that just dropped. Japan opening a “NATO liaison office” is surely going to make both Russia and more importantly China very unhappy.
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May 10, 2023 06:09
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So wait… they spent like 9 months and god knows how much blood and treasure to just retreat?
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May 10, 2023 18:04
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steinrokkan posted:Well they only fought for Bakhmut to drain Ukraine's manpower through attrition, so says Prigozhin Yeah but as others have said if that was the stated goal they did poorly. In the current Russian military state the last thing they should be wanting to do is attrition at all. They don’t have the resources to replenish their stocks easily. It is an even worse idea when NATO is equipping Ukraine with systems that are exponential force multipliers and don’t have the same concerns over material as Russia. The more likely truth is that Bakhmut was supposed to be an easy win for Wagner. By the point it wasn’t they figured that if they pushed harder at a certain point they would break through and capture it. At a certain point they had invested too much into the battle that they couldn’t leave without being humiliated and questions about the loss of man and material. Now we have come to a point where they can’t justify further expenditures so Prigozhin is using an excuse to fall back to attempt to save face publicly.
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May 10, 2023 18:25
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Tetraptous posted:Not to cast doubt on the eminence of "Faytuks News," but I looked around and this is being reported widely by a lot of legit news sources and seems to originate as an accusation from the US Ambassador to South Africa. My guess is it probably isn’t the government but a unconnected arms dealer trying to offload the poo poo. They probably have a shitload of ammo and parts sitting in a warehouse and someone came wanting to buy it. Likely the buyer is not directly connected to the Russians but it isn’t like arms dealers particularly care who they are selling to in the first place, especially stuff that old. Could be Russia, could be some terrorist, revolutionary or guerrilla group, could be a third world country. They don’t care as long as the money is right.
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May 11, 2023 18:59
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dr_rat posted:Don't military helicopters crash in training just sort of regularly anyway? But yeah, hopefully it's telling of poor equipment/maintenance. Helicopters are incredibly complex machines in both maintenance and flying. As the other poster said they are trying to crash at all times. Flying one is incredibly fatiguing both physically and mentally. There is a hard time limit for how long you can fly at a time between mandatory rest period. https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-14/chapter-I/subchapter-F/part-91/subpart-K/subject-group-ECFRc17623c0e0be17e/section-91.1059 There is different standards for the military but they aren’t too far off. The maintenance needs are pretty heavy as well. Compared to fixed wing aircraft it is like comparing Duplo to the most intricate Technics Lego sets. There is a million things that can go wrong and do. There is also a lot more things that have to be regularly changed, for example rotors need to be checked and changed regularly. They have a surprisingly lower flight hour life than you would think. The costs of maintenance and manpower of one rotary airframe is roughly the same as three fixed wing, of course depending on the type and whatnot. It’s a big reason why I refuse to go in civilian helicopters. I don’t trust they have been maintained properly. There is a lot less oversight there than with the pilots.
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May 12, 2023 17:48
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Moon Slayer posted:Also, this happened: That is VERY interesting if Ukraine has got the ADM-160. To give a cliftnotes version; it is a decoy missile designed to simulate the signature of basically any aircraft from a huge transport like a C-5, to a heavy bomber like a B-52 to a stealth aircraft like a F-117 or B-2. The idea is to use them either in a SEAD/DEAD scenario or focus air defense on them while you have a cruise missile or the like hit the actual target. They have been very sparingly used in combat and I don’t think available for export. I am really interested in knowing how they are launching them as well since I don’t think you could bolt them on to a MiG-29 easily. My guess would be they got a couple US drones as that would be the easiest launch platform for them both in use and to keep secret, but that is just a guess.
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May 12, 2023 18:12
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Wibla posted:Where there's will, there's a way While I am positive they could rig something together, but giving a couple MQ-1 Predator drones that have been retired and the US have been looking for ways to get rid of would be a much easier solution. They aren’t anything classified at this point and are in use in other counties. If they are lost it isn’t as big of a deal as losing a MiG or Sukhoi would be. Also they can be preprogrammed from the ground so jamming and whatnot isn’t a concern for a deep strike. If Ukraine has Predators then the option to give them Hellfires is also on the table which would be a huge operational improvement for them as well. This is all speculative but the pieces fit and it makes sense.
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May 12, 2023 19:11
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Wibla posted:poo poo will blow up, stuff will happen, and we won't know the full story until way after the fact. That's just how this is going to go. Well also it is a LOT easier to clandestinely move a bunch of Predators into the country than it would be to move something like F-16s. Like I said months ago which I got poo pooed for saying, I am positive that Ukraine is getting stuff that is not officially announced. It doesn’t make sense that they wouldn’t be. The things that get announced officially is things that either the country giving it and Ukraine is comfortable saying openly. I honestly can’t wait for a decade or so after this is all over to read about all the crazy stuff that was done. It will be probably the most fascinating conflict historically since WWII.
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May 12, 2023 20:12
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Ionicpsycho posted:Wait, wasn't one of the hype points about hypersonic weapons was the ability to target down air defense first? And it just turns out Patriots are already ready for that, huh. With a hypersonic launched at close range it would be a lot harder for an air defense system to detect, track and target a missile. Russia is firing these things from within their airspace at the maximum distance possible. Even at hypersonic speeds you have eons to detect, track and target. It just comes down to basic math at the end of the day. You are able to track it’s speed, heading and altitude you can intercept. The Patriots are incredibly good at both parts of being able to do that. The initial firing solution from the ground and the last stage intercept in the air for the kill. I believe it was originally designed to counter high speed nuclear bombers that the Soviets were planning. It was a happy accident when they realized it could also hit missiles pretty well.
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May 12, 2023 22:47
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Libluini posted:It's, I think, easy for non-military goons to forget that most of a modern airframe's defenses are for defending against smart ammo like missiles. And you can't use chaff, ECM or other anti-missile defenses on a dumb piece of dead metal on a ballistic collision course. The only thing "defeating" ballistic ammo is turning your plane back around, which kind of defeats the purpose of CAS. Well ECM is still valuable since the good stuff is still electronically sighted/controlled but you are correct. Anti-Aircraft guns are making a comeback due to CAS becoming more of a importance in modern warfare in which you want something that can loiter in a airspace and lay continued fire on a position which means slower and often lower things in the air. You couple that with how valuable drones have become and you need a good counter. The USAF’s plan on using the F-35 as a fast mover for CAS like they have used the F-16 and the Navy/Marines have used the F-18 has been proven to be a bad plan. They need a successor to the A-10 but they both don’t want the CAS role, yet don’t want to give it to the Army along with they don’t want “slow” planes. The OV-10 modified and used for a bit a few years ago with tremendous success but the USAF just doesn’t want it or the job. Personally if I were a military I’d be investing in a drone based CAS airframe. I think something akin to the OV-10 design with 40mm cannon in the back and a 30mm in the front. Give it the ability to fire the same missiles and bombs as the A-10. Basically the best of an A-10 and a AC-130. Much like using drones for the SEAD/DEAD Wild Weasel role I would be amazed if there isn’t this already in use since it makes far too much sense for it not to be made.
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May 13, 2023 20:11
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Pablo Bluth posted:It's not clear what "long range attack drones" refers to. It would be a funny way to talk about Stormshadow but I don't think we have anything else already in our arsenal. Perhaps we've found a foreign supplier with something we can pay for, or we've managed to speed up something that was nascent domestically. I am trying to figure out what they hell they are talking about and nothing really fits that bill. Even the Storm Shadow doesn’t really even if you are using a weird description. The only “attack drone” the UK has is the Reaper which has a hell of a longer range than 200km and I would think giving them Predators would be the better option for a lot of reasons at the moment.
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May 15, 2023 13:34
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You also have to realize that this is the greatest commercial for every countries weapon systems ever given. If you are looking to export weapons you are looking to give your best poo poo to Ukraine to use in the field. There is nothing that sells your poo poo better than successful usage in the field. This has been proven time and time again through history. It doesn’t matter what kinda demos you see or how well it is tested as there is a huge difference between use in a safe environment than in the field in a active warzone. Countries tend to go towards procuring equipment that has been proven in the field, especially if they have a limited budget. For the UK this is especially important as their domestic arms industry has fallen by the wayside in the last 30 years. Their stuff making big splashes helps make sales to other militaries. It’s the same with the US, however much we have spent in material to Ukraine the amount of sales we will receive from elsewhere will outweigh that greatly.
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May 15, 2023 15:41
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Kraftwerk posted:Consider Taiwan and Japan, both of whom have loosened their purse strings to begin a massive rearmament program. Exactly. Ukraine is part sales pitch, part testing ground for everyone around right now. China is no doubt trying to get every bit of information they can out of it but they are no doubt wishing they could be involved as well. Though I do think that China is as much of a paper tiger as Russia. As we have seen it doesn’t make them any less dangerous but I don’t think their capabilities are nearly as good as they claim.
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May 15, 2023 15:54
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Nitrox posted:In the case of Lukashenko's sudden death or incapacitation, there will be a GRU controlled takeover. I'm pretty sure this exact plan is in the leaked documents from a few months ago. I wonder how that would work in reality. The only reason why he wasn’t toppled before was because Putin came in to rescue him. I don’t think that would happen again. I think when Luka dies it is going to be chaos there for awhile.
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May 15, 2023 21:09
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cr0y posted:If that AD kill rate is anywhere near accurate that is absurdly good. The Patriot has always been known to be very, very good. It is why there has always been a lot of pushback from certain nations when they are bought/given. The only thing that is better is AEGIS, which is significantly more expensive and not mobile on land. Though I think when/if Russia is pushed out of Ukraine the US will likely build a Aegis Ashore site or two within Ukraine as a part of their long term deployment strategy, much like how they did in Poland.
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May 16, 2023 14:38
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Charliegrs posted:We can send all the patriot launchers to Ukraine that we want. The bigger question is how many missiles can be sent? It seems like Ukraine is already launching a lot of them I wonder how long it will be before they run out. And I wonder how many are built every year? Probably not a whole lot. They have been making Patriot missiles since the early 80s and there are tens of thousands produced. The actual missiles themselves are very cheap and fast to produce by Raytheon. It was one of the main goals of the project originally as the US envisioned in a hot war with the Soviets that there would be waves of bombers and missiles raining in regularly. They wanted to be able to make and replenish supply of the missiles quickly and cheaply. Russia would run out of things to put in the sky before you would run out of Patriot missiles.
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May 16, 2023 17:21
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OddObserver posted:Thus far overnight strikes have been mostly at the South of the country --- they haven't tried for Kyiv again, though the night is still young. Damage includes a grocery store. At this point I wonder what the point of these strikes are. They aren’t hitting valid military targets or anything of any significance. Even as a terror to cause the populace to break somehow doesn’t seem to have come to happen either. It just seems like they are wasting valuable and likely irreplaceable material just to do nothing. I mean at least they were using their fancy hypersonic missiles to attack a Patriot battery but so much of this stuff you see just hitting a random apartment building or a store.
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May 17, 2023 02:19
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