(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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I might be out of the loop as IT person but they're still printing off classified intelligence on paper? I'm surprised they don't hand out locked down PCs that have nearly everything with Digital Rights Management.
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Apr 11, 2023 04:55
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| # ¿ May 17, 2024 01:12 |
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Did some bored twenty something right-wing military member or contractor get trigged and decided to leak a bunch of stuff for attention? Am I getting this right?
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Apr 13, 2023 08:04
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What do we think is going to happen to this leaker? Is this kid going to spend the rest of his life in Leavenworth?
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Apr 14, 2023 12:31
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KingColliwog posted:I doubt he'll ever get out. They kind of have to make an example out of him and also need a scape goat I kind of figure as much. Even if he fell down the alt-right tubes I am still a bit sympathetic to a twenty year old kid ruining the rest of his entire life and I don't see him getting his sentence commuted.
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Apr 14, 2023 14:24
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As a former political science major, his whole summary of the situation is accurate and what I really like is that he doesn't make any predictions of forecasts. His emphasis on new recruits will need to come out of places like Saint Petersburg or Moscow is correct given earlier losses. Maybe the Russian people will continue to put up with it? We all know how well people support long running wars...
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Apr 20, 2023 22:20
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WarpedLichen posted:https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4030037 What the heck does this mean in normal people words? tl;dr? Anyway, rep for cinnci you had a hell of a job and did a good job. 
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Apr 21, 2023 10:28
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1650469693659009027 I'm a little confused here... Why is okay for Russia to literally raze entire Ukrainian cities but they can't do strikes in Russian territory?
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Apr 24, 2023 14:22
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Kikas posted:War goals are different. Good point. This makes much more sense now.
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Apr 24, 2023 17:43
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HonorableTB posted:A flash occurred to me that if cinci zoo sniper was still here this extremely fun and interesting derail into loanwords would not have been allowed to continue and everyone involved with joke loan words would eat a sixer Has any kind of operation even started? I'm sure we will know once it does but my twitter feed is full of Ukrainian soldiers showing western equipment just arriving in Ukraine, being painted for camouflage or on there way to somewhere.
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Apr 26, 2023 14:27
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FMguru posted:It's damage control for China's ambassador to France saying in a TV interview that none of the post-Soviet breakaway nations (Estonia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, etc.) are actually sovereign nations. I've been following this and goddamn it's managed to enormous piss of former Soviet Union States along with the rest of Europe. I've heard some things saying that this was a test by Xi to see how serious they are with military defense but it just seems to have further emboldened Europe.
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Apr 26, 2023 18:16
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How the in the gently caress did they guy get a clearance in the first place? Don't they talk to your friend and family?
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Apr 27, 2023 10:45
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:christ, maybe i'm just ignorant but this really does seem like one of the bloodiest conflicts of the past decades. i know regional wars in africa and middle east have had huge loss of life, but usually over many years of conflict. this is getting into the iran iraq war numbers in a quarter of the time From a historical or really any point view, it's absolutely freaking crazy. There are more casualties in less than a year than compared to the whole Vietnam war or Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
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May 1, 2023 19:26
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Popete posted:That is definitely not true. Blah, if you look a whole Ukraine war. Yes not just Bakhmut.
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May 1, 2023 19:32
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Looks like I'm way off but goddamn it's still insanely high for a war that was completely optional.
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May 1, 2023 19:38
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Storkrasch posted:Would a stalemate actually be better than a full withdrawal? Seems like you're just creating trouble for yourself over territory that just isn't that useful for Russia. Sure, they'll create problems in Ukraine, but those problems will apply just as much in Russia. This isn't a Transnistria or Abkhazia situation, it's a "turn your country into a global pariah in order to gain some bombed out cities with a population of traumatised pensioners who don't want to live in your country". I'm under the impression that even if it results in a partial stalemate Putin can spin it as partially successful to the Russian Public and the rest of the nationalists. A full retreat back to 2014 borders would be a clear defeat. I can't see him resorting to WMDs like Nuclear Weapons. He's supposed to liberate Ukraine, not destroy it. And every Country including China has made it clear that WMDs are not acceptable.
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May 2, 2023 05:37
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spankmeister posted:https://twitter.com/bbcstever/status/1654364944295501824 This be a little off topic for the thread but I'm interested in what happens to Russia. Places like St. Petersburg are pretty cosmopolitan with a lot young-ish (25-45 years olds) who are quite educated, spent time overseas including a lot of international business relations. Ever since the war, all of their efforts have been completely destroyed. It's super sad and I don't how on earth they are going to recover. Ian Bremmer did a big discussion on it - https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1653862482283311105?s=20
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May 5, 2023 09:27
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This is weird question but what would occur in Western Militaries if a commander or leader did what Prigozhin did where his sharing videos of the dead and he isn't getting the support he needs?
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May 6, 2023 10:29
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Good post, I wonder if it's even realistic if Wagner can hold the outskirts of Bakhmut. Probably not.
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May 6, 2023 13:36
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Looking that up on Wikipedia, Crozier was re-instated and retired last year. Looks like he didn't do things completely right but not completely wrong either.
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May 6, 2023 14:08
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Nenonen posted:He was not reinstated. Like said, it killed his career. Was he dishonorably discharged? I am not seeing that, looks like they told him he needed to retire but wasn't fired.
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May 6, 2023 15:46
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Vorenus posted:He was relieved of command, transferred, and then retired....because his career was over. A couple of people recommended/considered reinstating him, but ultimately he was not reinstated. To add insult to injury, he was criticized by a naval inquiry. I did read it. What is your point here exactly because its way better to get told that your time is up as opposed to being forced to leave. He made a mistake but took the high road. Good for him? evilweasel posted:Dishonorably discharged is vaguely akin to a criminal record. You don't get one just because you were relieved of command and told your career was over. That's what I thought.
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May 6, 2023 16:17
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Moon Slayer posted:Interesting "man on the front lines" interview retweeted by Def Mon. Is anyone able to expand upon what he means by Soviet Mindset? How is this different compared to other militaries?
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May 23, 2023 21:47
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Good reply, thanks all.Djarum posted:It doesn't matter how well you fortify there is always going to be weak points in a defense and by most accounts they haven't fortified much of their lines and much of what they have looks badly done, see the fake Dragon's Teeth that was just mentioned. Even the trenching that has been done has either been done nonsensically or incorrectly. Pre-sighted artillery are a liability and can be destroyed by various options available to the Ukrainians. Even then Russia has limited artillery ammunition to engage in a long term defense. This isn't a year ago where they could launch tens of thousands of shells a day. Is there also a risk the Russian forces in the Country just kind of... collapse? Like, they don't have enough troops for a real full scale occupation and with that how do they intend to keep supply lines open with the countryside is hostile?
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May 23, 2023 22:45
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Djarum posted:Well in warfare generally you are holding points on a map. Like 90% of the territory Russia controls in Ukraine there isn't a member of the Russian forces anywhere near them. A good 70% are at various points at the front lines and the other 30% are at various places in the rear; depots, HQ, staging areas along with small garrisons in larger population centers. Now there is a legitimate concern that supply lines can get cut off in which troops at the front need to retreat. This is why Ukraine has been targeting things like supply hubs, ammo dumps, supply depots and command centers. It's a lot easier to cut off the supplies to an enemy to defeat them than to engage them directly. Exactly, this is my whole point. Ukraine could still have a big offensive but it won't be some kind of major frontal assault.
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May 24, 2023 22:44
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Paladinus posted:Some very pro-Russian but not very pro-Putin 'military experts' suggest that the drones were downed over the elite suburbs where ministers and Putin's friends live simply because that's where all the anti-air defence is, and it's basically the only really protected place in the entire country. If that's true, the drones could have targeted literally anything, including but not limited to said elite suburbs. It's pretty telling to when an alleged victim of abuse literally goes to a Country that literally loosened domestic abuse laws on purpose.
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May 30, 2023 22:25
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BungMonkey posted:His invasion of Moscow was no longer necessary when it was agreed that Shoigu and Gerasimov were no longer a threat and he could go back to securing Putin's African interests. What happens now? Are Shoigu and Gerasimov just going to go back to work as if nothing happened? Is Prigozhin just going to live Belarus as a de-facto exile? How are Russian soldiers supposed to go back to fighting just after he was just called a traitor by Putin and the war a farce?
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Jun 25, 2023 02:45
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BungMonkey posted:The politically savvy thing to do is to push a narrative that Shoigu and Gerasimov are massively corrupt, incompetent, and deceptive to externalize accountability on them for everything that's gone wrong. This also gives Putin a politically acceptable out for the war if he wants it. If I was a big bad evil dictator... I could see just maybe purging everyone or just throwing Shoigu and Gerasimov under the bus but but there's no way I'd let Prigozhin simply get away with it. The pessimistic part of me feels like Prigozhin will become exiled, Shoigu and Gerasimov forced into early retirement but just placed with loyalists who continue sending young Russians into the meat grinder. And the war continues... 
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Jun 25, 2023 02:56
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Alkydere posted:He got what he wanted today but it eroded a lot of Putin's power over him, and everyone else really. I feel that basically Putin letting the MoD play stupid games has vastly eroded his power and this is basically the point where we point back in the future and go "Yeah that's when it visibly started to come apart". The whole Russian puppet show has been falling apart since Kiev didn't fall in 3 days, but there's rot, visible rot and when things finally visibly implode. Didn't Putin just fail to manage his subordinates? It sounds like a classical error where your dogs start to eat one another for power but it went too far this time.
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Jun 25, 2023 05:31
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How big is Wagner exactly? Is Putin literally going to let a bunch of mercenaries who were about to invade the capital simply go home and act as if it never happened? I guess in American politics people get pardoned too but that's a weird way to do it!
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Jun 25, 2023 09:32
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Comstar posted:The Wagner guys are going to be spread through the whole army. Aren't all the Wagner guys army rejects? How do you get them to join after they just got kicked out?
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Jun 25, 2023 20:19
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Ynglaur posted:It's uncertain, at least in the OSINT community. Michael Koffman thinks Prigozhin's claims of 25,000 are probably over-stated. I'm not sure if I have the same perspective, to me it seems like a general leadership failure. Putin is in the manager role where he shouldn't have delegated some of these decisions to his subordinates. He's like that manager who wants everyone to get along, if there's conflict just to figure it out but not the way Prigozhin had in mind!
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Jun 26, 2023 04:45
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Orthanc6 posted:Yeah this is full on good cop/bad cop Unless Luka new with confidence that Prigozhin would have fought back. It does seem as he said an uneasy peace is better than a war was the better decision.
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Jun 28, 2023 00:14
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Surprised this wasn't posted earlier, https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1674937327565656065?s=20 This makes a ton of sense to me, push towards cutting Crimea off from the mainland but it kind of feels like pre-2014 borders aren't happening.
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Jul 3, 2023 01:29
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VitalSigns posted:I don't see a moral difference between dropping cluster bombs to kill civilians on purpose versus dropping them and not caring that you're killing civilians. Call it whatever euphemism you want though. Why? Why would intent not matter in this circumstance?
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Jul 11, 2023 04:59
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Xiahou Dun posted:VitalSigns clearly means murder in the very common sense of "to cause the death of a person in an amoral manner". This is a incredibly limited view of such a word. Even in military combat, civilian deaths are largely unavoidable but no one would claim that they were murdered by their own military unless specifically targeted. There no evidence that is the case.
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Jul 11, 2023 08:03
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Vox Nihili posted:Well, ignoring the weird tone here, I would say the invasion failed for the following reasons first and foremost: Do we expect this advantage to remain? I would expect the introduction of western planes along with manufacturing artillery shells to eventually reach a point where they don't have to conserve ammo?
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Jul 13, 2023 02:59
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I think the most interesting aspect regarding the whole war is how much Ukraine changed from the original 2014 conflict. Even western analysts through Ukraine would fall but what they missed was enormous changes in Ukrainian military and society.
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Jul 13, 2023 04:51
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MikeC posted:With modern-day satellites and airborne intelligence-gathering platforms, you can't really hide build-ups anymore. The south was always the area promising the best results strategically so its not like telegraphing the attack hurt them in that sense. Remember the Surovikin line was being built well before the year started. The depth and scale of the fortifications as well as the willingness of the Russian mobilized soldier to fight were the main x-factors that threw them off. May you expand upon this in more detail? Are we saying that if the 2023 Ukrainian Counter Offensive fails then the next stage of the war is to see if Russia can take back territory? Why wouldn't Ukraine try to push in the winter too?
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Aug 3, 2023 06:03
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Dick Ripple posted:Continuing or launching another offensive in Winter is not out of the question for Ukraine, but it will depend on large part of what their artillery stockpile looks like. In that they have to have enough in stock to actually have an effect on offensive operations and possible Russian offensives. Not to mention the condition of their reserves and being able to properly rotate troops. There are times when you can push your forces, but you do not want to get to a point where you break them. I too, feel like this will end up like some kind of frozen conflict like Korea but long term I don't see how Russia comes out the victor.
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Aug 3, 2023 12:00
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| # ¿ May 17, 2024 01:12 |
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Does this mean new recruits will start coming out of cities like Moscow and St Petersburg?
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Aug 3, 2023 16:02
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